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Thread: Mauer in Two-Hole

  1. #61
    Twins Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    It's looking like Gardy might actually be considering putting Mauer in the 2 hole. I really hope so... Especially with the projected starting lineup.

    We have a lot of RBI potential bats in this lineup. Putting Dozier in the 2 and Parmelee in the 8 doesn't make sense to me because every projection I've ever read says that Parmelee is a better hitter than Dozier.

    Moving Mauer up one spot... At the very least... Will give Mauer theoretically more at-bats and will allow all of our better hitters to move up one spot and theoreticallly give all of our best hitters more at bats.

    Plus a nice patient hitter who works the count is what you want following a lead off guy who can run like Hicks. I think we can all agree that Mauer works the count.

    We have plenty of choices for the 3 hole... We have very few choices for the 2 hole.

  2. #62
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    The first inning is the inning where the most runs are scored, correct? This is likely due to the fact that it is the one inning that is a manager can have total control over the batting order (and maybe pitchers just sorta suck a bit until they are fully loose???), so what is the best lineup for maximizing the possibility of run production in the first inning? .350+ OBP guys (leadoff can be slightly less if he can gain a base via a steal) in the first two spots and sluggers behind them. Hicks, Carroll, and Mauer are the only three guys I am comfortable having in the 1-2 spots. Willingham, Morneau, and Doumit following some two of those three makes me happy about the lineup.

    Note: this would seem to mean (sans a Dozier or Parmelee OBP outburst) that if Mauer is out of the lineup, Jamey Carroll is in it.

  3. #63
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Um, and obviously when Hicks sits, Carroll leads off. This isn't such a bad scenario for the lineup: each time Hicks or Mauer gets a day off, Florimon also sits and Carroll is added into the lineup to mitigate some of the drop in offense (basically each time Mauer sits against a lefty--and he should sit a bit more this year--Carroll and Mastro are inserted and Willingham DHs.)

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    Um, and obviously when Hicks sits, Carroll leads off. This isn't such a bad scenario for the lineup: each time Hicks or Mauer gets a day off, Florimon also sits and Carroll is added into the lineup to mitigate some of the drop in offense (basically each time Mauer sits against a lefty--and he should sit a bit more this year--Carroll and Mastro are inserted and Willingham DHs.)
    If you are saying what I think you are saying (Carroll should be in the lineup and Florimon should be on the bench), then I am with you!

  5. #65
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Brooks View Post
    If you are saying what I think you are saying (Carroll should be in the lineup and Florimon should be on the bench), then I am with you!
    Well, yes, but at the very least it means that Carroll--as a regular or not--should *for sure* be in the lineup when one of those two is out of it.

    But there's that TERRIBLE $2 million they might owe Carroll, you know! (dripping, wild, delirious sarcasm).

  6. #66
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Physics Guy's Avatar
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    I was listening to Peliserro on 1500 this morning and he said that Gardy is planning on hitting Mauer #2. If true, we have some progress folks.

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Physics Guy View Post
    I was listening to Peliserro on 1500 this morning and he said that Gardy is planning on hitting Mauer #2. If true, we have some progress folks.
    Goin's computer must have spit- not coughed.
    Gardy blinked. I'll take that as progress.

  8. #68
    Twins News Team All-Star PseudoSABR's Avatar
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    I guess Gardy confirmed that Mauer will bat second for the foreseeable future. Link.

  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
    I guess Gardy confirmed that Mauer will bat second for the foreseeable future. Link.
    Give Mackey credit for working double-time and overtime getting this out so quickly on Easter morning. Illustrating a little self-serving pat on the back and a point of humility both at the same time, just one day previous:

    Mackey: Twins won't do it, but it makes sense to bat Joe Mauer second | 1500 ESPN Twin Cities ? Minnesota Sports News & Opinion (Twins, Vikings, Wolves, Wild, Gophers) | Sportswire: Minnesota Twins

    Regardless, more good news coming in baby steps that the Twins will (at least begrudgingly) apply and employ more efficient concepts in manufacturing wins.

  10. #70
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    This also takes the ~140 extra PA's that Dozier would have gotten, hitting 2 vs. 8, and spreads them instead to Mauer, Morneau, Willy, Doumit, Parmalee, and Plouffe.
    That is a nice cherry on top.

  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Brooks View Post
    This also takes the ~140 extra PA's that Dozier would have gotten, hitting 2 vs. 8, and spreads them instead to Mauer, Morneau, Willy, Doumit, Parmalee, and Plouffe.
    That is a nice cherry on top.
    I bet Gardy spit out the cherry pit, though, when Goin showed him the numbers.

    Seriously though, this also might actually benefit Dozier in taking some of the pressure off of him at the top of the order.

  12. #72
    Senior Member All-Star LaBombo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    If people believe giving the hitter who does best with RISP less opportunities with RISP will make the team score more runs, than yes it's best if he bats 2nd. I'm not anywhere near convinced that's true...especiallywith the way Gardy likes to use his #2 hitter.
    Run expectancy matrix:



    With the exception of Revere last season, Gardenhire has almost always put a mediocre to poor OBP hitter (who, entirely by coincidence, has been a middle infielder over 90% of the time) in the two spot.

    By having one of the worst hitters on the team hitting in front of Mauer, they're making outs they don't need to in front of him. And each extra out generally reduces by 20% per out the chance the Twins will score a run in most situations when Mauer comes to the plate.

    Batting Mauer third gives him a small (barely above 30% with the crap hitters Gardy uses in the deuce) chance of an extra baserunner to bat in, in about a quarter of his at bats. But that comes at the unacceptable cost of a substantially reduced chance of the Twins scoring a run in ALL of Mauer's at bats, including the first time through the order.

    Mauer with 0 out > Mauer with 1 out. Mauer with 1 out > Mauer with 2 outs.

  13. #73
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    Gardy putting Mauer in the 2-hole in the absence of a hitter more qualified/able/ready to hit there is the sort of thing I'm going evaluate him on when deciding whether or not I think he should be back as manager. It's absolutely the right move for the club, but the sort of thing he's resisted in the past.

    If Dozier proves able to hit and get on base at a solid clip in the 8-spot, then he can moved up the order. But as a young hitter who struggled in his last stint, why put that pressure on him to bat 2nd? This move should be better for the team and for player development, and that's what I want to see.

    I hope to see this batting order frequently early on in the season:
    Hicks
    Mauer
    Willingham
    Morneau
    Plouffe
    Doumit
    Parmelee
    Dozier
    Florimon

    That could be a very nice hitting lineup if Plouffe hits more like he did in the summer than any other time, Parmelee carries over his AAA performance, and Dozier does better. All are possible, but the odds are at least one will go to crap, I'm afraid.

  14. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by raindog View Post
    Five innings of spring training baseball.
    I'm going to the game Wednesday, so I feel forced to say something positive, but I'm going to hold off till Wednesday around 5pm in case I have a reason to change my mind.

  15. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    (In a loud internet-board voice): "Paging ClearBlueSky....!"

    Careful, I think Bonnes and Glunn probably now watch any thread I participate in like Kestrel Hawks spying wayward Minneapolis moths.

    And Hey.... Mauer's got pretty decent SPEED....

    Speaking of local bird species: If Mauer batting 2nd helps lead to the type of offensive production foreseen by the wise sages on this board, I will happily be requesting their best recipes for the preparation and consumption of crow.

  16. #76
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 10PagesOfClearBlueSky View Post
    Speaking of local bird species: If Mauer batting 2nd helps lead to the type of offensive production foreseen by the wise sages on this board, I will happily be requesting their best recipes for the preparation and consumption of crow.
    This sole move won't guarantee explosions of runs, but it will make a positive impact. We can use some fancy math in a few months to forecast with pretty darn good accuracy how many runs would have been scored with someone else's stats at #2 and compare it to how we've done.

  17. #77
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LaBombo View Post
    Batting Mauer third gives him a small (barely above 30% with the crap hitters Gardy uses in the deuce) chance of an extra baserunner to bat in, in about a quarter of his at bats. But that comes at the unacceptable cost of a substantially reduced chance of the Twins scoring a run in ALL of Mauer's at bats, including the first time through the order.

    Mauer with 0 out > Mauer with 1 out. Mauer with 1 out > Mauer with 2 outs.
    Most of this could probably be addressed by batting Dozier 9th... Just a thought. Then you still have Dozier and Hicks batting in front of Mauer (though in reverse order) except that Dozier gets far less at bats and Mauer, Morneau, and Willingham get more.

  18. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    Because (Mauer) hits exceptionally well with RISP (better than anyone else on the team) and I'd rather not have him bunting someone over or sacrificing himself to move the guy to third base.
    If you'd like to set the over/under for the number of times Mauer is asked to sacrifice this year at 1--regardless of his spot in the order--I'll take the under.

  19. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    There's another subtext which seems to be saying that no praise for a 5 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 1 K line is equivalent to complaining...
    I haven't been logged in for a few days, but wanted to reply to this... In the post of mine you quoted, I intended no such subtext whatsoever. Ashburyjohn had asked a question (although possibly rhetorically) about everyone rooting for "our guys," and I was answering that question rather directly. There has even been a case in this very thread since then. My "favorite," though, was probably the poetically absurd logic of a position I once read (I don't recall if it was on this site or not) where the writer suggested he wanted the entire team to fail because if they won the World Series, then the Pohlads would think Gardenhire capable of winning the World Series and then they'd never get rid of him.

  20. #80
    Senior Member All-Star LaBombo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDog View Post
    My "favorite," though, was probably the poetically absurd logic of a position I once read (I don't recall if it was on this site or not) where the writer suggested he wanted the entire team to fail because if they won the World Series, then the Pohlads would think Gardenhire capable of winning the World Series and then they'd never get rid of him.
    No, dude, it totally makes sense, as long as you believe that a bad manager can't keep a team from winning the World Series once, but a good manager can help a team win multiple championships... which is a totally reasonable expectation. Because hey, new ballpark.

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