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Thread: Article: Gleeman and the Geek, Ep 87: Opening Day

  1. #1
    Owner All-Star John Bonnes's Avatar
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    Article: Gleeman and the Geek, Ep 87: Opening Day


  2. #2
    John,

    Regarding the batting order, I think you're getting caught up in the numbers and missing the main point. By getting an extra 15-20 at bats for everyone hitting ahead of Dozier there are likely to be several clutch situations for each of those hitters. The better hitters are more likely to come through in those situations.

    Sabermetrically, the number of runs or wins that this would produce is simply a projection to reflect that reality. It gets back to your concession to do this because it makes sense not because of some number of runs or wins. It's the same point - more at bats for better hitters is the right thing to do.

    It's why pinch hitting for a bad hitter makes sense. Over one game it may not matter but over the course of 100 at-bats you are bound to have better results.

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    I agree, you missed the boat on the batting order John.
    However, you nailed it on the pinch hitting, and on Burton.

    With the bases loaded and 2 outs, in a 1 run game, I can't fathom why/how Gardy thinks Ramirez is a better option there than Carroll. Ramirez is an out machine.

    And I literally thought that maybe Burton wasn't available in the 8th inning, it made zero sense that he wasn't in there.

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    Agreed, it was a bit frustrating to understand the point you were trying to make. Aaron was not arguing sabermetrics - he was simply stating that Dozier getting less at bats is good. There is no simpler way to increase potential run production than that move alone. I don't even know what point you were arguing (fluctuations in the sabermetric unknown?), you weren't even going for devil's advocate, it seemed to be just baying about sabermetrics in general - which was never the point. Better hitters should hit higher in the order and if that's something as simple as Gardy writing it down on the lineup card every day - why not do it? No calculation required.

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    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    It was 3-0 when they pinch hit Ramirez for Florimon. One run came in on a wild pitch in the at bat. Clearly, Gardy was thinking SLUGGING and not simply getting a run or two by batting someone who has a better average.

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    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    I am not sure how there is this "down a run" idea here. They weren't.

    Gardenhire wouldn't have pinch hit if he didn't have BOTH Carroll and Florimon, I think.

    Not sure why there is so much animosity towards Ramirez. He had a good at bat there and almost beat the throw.

    Seriously I am listening to this: and minutes into this part of the conversation, finally John corrects the notion that it wasn't a one-run game. They were down THREE when Gardenhire made the decision to pinch hit Ramirez for Florimon. With Hicks on deck.

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    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Also, it is conceivable that the wild pitch would have never occurred if Carroll were batting (different pitches thrown, Carroll puts it in play earlier, etc.).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    Also, it is conceivable that the wild pitch would have never occurred if Carroll were batting (different pitches thrown, Carroll puts it in play earlier, etc.).
    I doubt Carroll would've put it in play early - he's nothing if not Mauer-esque in his patience and plate discipline.

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    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Batting order optimization is, correctly, probably 1.5-2 wins. If that is ALL one does to optimize the team, then certainly it doesn't matter all that much. But if a manager optimizes other areas like bullpen, rotation, platoons, etc. then it adds up to 5-8 wins. And that's just due to roster management.

    Not sure what the point is at all that John is making.

  10. #10
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by YLT View Post
    I doubt Carroll would've put it in play early - he's nothing if not Mauer-esque in his patience and plate discipline.
    Well the WP came in the 5th or 6th pitch of the plate appearance. And, again, it is likely that Smyly will be throwing different pitches to Carroll than to Ramirez anyway.

  11. #11
    Haven't listened to the podcast yet, but can folks weigh in on where to go to get the best price on tickets/selection? I saw a reference to Ticket King in the description, and the Twins push you to StubHub a lot, but wondered if there were other alternatives to search and compare...thanks.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tmerrickkeller View Post
    Haven't listened to the podcast yet, but can folks weigh in on where to go to get the best price on tickets/selection? I saw a reference to Ticket King in the description, and the Twins push you to StubHub a lot, but wondered if there were other alternatives to search and compare...thanks.
    The MLB Twins site...

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    Tough to rip Gardy on opening day...when it's 30 some degrees out. They aren't playing in optimal conditions obviously, and even though they are professionals, it's tougher to predict what's going to happen when it's that cold. Whose to say it might take Burton longer to warm up in the cold?!?!? All in all, I was happy it was a decent game. The way it started I thought it would be a 10-0 blowout. In a rebuilding year, close entertaining games are always two thumbs up

  14. #14
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    I have to wonder if this whole terrible argument would be different if we think about the impact of 1-2 wins for a 90 or 91.5 win team? That could mean the difference between not being a wild card or being one. Or being a wild card or being a division winner. Or being a division winner and having home field advantage. ETC. ETC. ETC.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    I have to wonder if this whole terrible argument would be different if we think about the impact of 1-2 wins for a 90 or 91.5 win team? That could mean the difference between not being a wild card or being one. Or being a wild card or being a division winner. Or being a division winner and having home field advantage. ETC. ETC. ETC.

    Yup. It's about expectations. Realistically, there is no way the Twins are competing for the playoffs this year.

  16. #16
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sorney View Post
    Yup. It's about expectations. Realistically, there is no way the Twins are competing for the playoffs this year.
    But John's point seemed to be context-less. Like batting order optimization isn't a big deal at all. I cannot fathom how anyone actually argues against adding 1.5 wins, even one win. Note my post above about batting order optimization being only one part of the manager equation in terms of adding wins aside from what the players actually add.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    But John's point seemed to be context-less. Like batting order optimization isn't a big deal at all. I cannot fathom how anyone actually argues against adding 1.5 wins, even one win. Note my post above about batting order optimization being only one part of the manager equation in terms of adding wins aside from what the players actually add.

    Gotcha. I was just saying in general.
    Yup, adding to the win total by batting order optimization is a no-brainer in my book.

  18. #18
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    The Twins could surprise, certainly. I think 70 wins is my over/under. That's a four-game improvement from last season. Health plus an improved rotation could push that further to 72+.

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    I appreciated the increase in baseball discussion and content. Taking specific events in the game (batting order, bullpen use, pinch hitting...) and expanding them to the general kept me listening. I hope this is a direction that will continue.

    ... but "Progression to the mean" ... c'mon

    Regression to the Mean | FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library

  20. #20
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    Classic Gleeman and the Geek:

    @27:15 John starts asking, "What is the sabermetric impact, though, of having ....Dozier take those at bats...." Then @ 27:40 "Do we have any idea what the number of runs and or wins on this?" Keep this in mind when John goes on his monologue around 39:00.

    You can't script this stuff!

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