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Thread: Article: Gleeman and the Geek, Ep 87: Opening Day

  1. #41
    Senior Member All-Star PseudoSABR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SDTwinkie View Post
    To overemphasize the “hard core smart person” side of sabremetrics and de-emphasize its correlational nature that inherently includes varying levels of imprecision (i.e., the third place Angels had the highest WAR in their division last year) signals a higher level of critical thought is needed. Make no mistake sabremetric analysis contributes to our knowledge of the great game, but I would appreciate it if some people could broaden their perspective and reduce their sabremetric elitism. Blast away all of you that are smarter than me.
    Honestly, I agree. And I get the disdain, but to be fair that probably won't play well here.

    Many sabermetricians remind me of that hipster that brags about reading Socrates, yet fails to discern the difference between knowledge and wisdom.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    I have said this before and it is NOT directed to anyone in this thread, but I often get the same vibe from anti statistical analysis people as I do from anti-evolutionists. "Well, your theory isn't perfect, so . . . I'll just go back to what I *feel* is true." Clearly, evolution is more well-established since "theory" in science is *NOT* "theory" in general parlance, including baseball statistical analysis, but I do think there are similarities in the general acceptance of the two.
    I think this is a sloppy comparison. There are real technical and philosophical problems with many of the metrics sabermetricians espouse. From simply adding onbase percentage to slugging to the mysteriously derived coefficients that some metrics employ--this is hardly science. Not to mention defensive metrics. Sabermetrics is burgeoning in terms of its capacity for precision, much of it remains totally convoluted and very flawed. I scoff at the notion that sabermetrics is somehow as elegant or as scientifically hard-won as evolution.

    Sure statistical analysis is valuable, but only if its put into a larger context in which we can interpret that data. We should be guarded about anything that claims to totalize, anything that claims to quantify which before was abstract.

  2. #42
    Head Moderator All-Star glunn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    The Twins could surprise, certainly. I think 70 wins is my over/under. That's a four-game improvement from last season. Health plus an improved rotation could push that further to 72+.
    I am hoping that you are correct. I bet the over in Vegas with 68 as the break point.

  3. #43
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
    Honestly, I agree. And I get the disdain, but to be fair that probably won't play well here.

    Many sabermetricians remind me of that hipster that brags about reading Socrates, yet fails to discern the difference between knowledge and wisdom.

    I think this is a sloppy comparison. There are real technical and philosophical problems with many of the metrics sabermetricians espouse. From simply adding onbase percentage to slugging to the mysteriously derived coefficients that some metrics employ--this is hardly science. Not to mention defensive metrics. Sabermetrics is burgeoning in terms of its capacity for precision, much of it remains totally convoluted and very flawed. I scoff at the notion that sabermetrics is somehow as elegant or as scientifically hard-won as evolution.

    Sure statistical analysis is valuable, but only if its put into a larger context in which we can interpret that data. We should be guarded about anything that claims to totalize, anything that claims to quantify which before was abstract.
    You don't think I qualified the comparison enough?

  4. #44
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    You don't think I qualified the comparison enough?
    You did. There are valid comparisons in how the two are received, as opposing viewpoints are often nothing more than a plugging of the ears and yelling "LALALALALALALA" over the speaker. It has little to do with the theory/metric themselves, more how they're "refuted" (basically, without logic-based debate of the information).

    Of course, this does not apply to everyone. There are weaknesses that can be debated about both but that's generally not what happens. An example of this is USAChief, who has huge issues with WAR but instead of just saying "that's BS", he actually gets into the nitty-gritty of why he thinks it's BS. I may not agree with him but he's definitely putting thought into his reasoning why it's a bad metric.

  5. #45
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    True, Brock. And I have far less of an issue with anti-WAR people than those who will say "OPS doesn't actually measure anything" (yes, I have read that before).

  6. #46
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    I was thinking I would listen to the podcast on my drive to Cedar Rapids this afternoon, thinking I'd try it again now that there might be some new topics... Reading this thread, I think I'll just listen to music.

    A couple of thoughts on the topics addressed above:

    Mauer batting second has always made sense. Mauer batting third has always made sense. As Gardy said in his pre-game presser, "I'd like to bat him 1st, 2nd and 3rd, but they only let me bat him in one spot." I think that the hope is that Brian Dozier will be able to relax and adjust better by hitting 8th in the lineup early in the season and be what he was in 2011 when he hit for average, took a lot of walks, was able to do all the things a prototypical #2 hitter should do. Once he can show that consistently for a little while, it would be great to move him to the #2 spot and slide everyone else down one spot and extend the lineup. That should be, and likely is, the hope and plan. But until there, Mauer is a great #2 hitter and it makes sense for the early season.

    Regarding Wilkin Ramirez getting that bases loaded, down 3-0 at bat, it only made sense. Seriously, if he's not going to pinch hit in that situation, they might as well have Butera sitting on the roster. Ramirez hit something like 15 homers in half of a season in Rochester last year. He's fully healthy. He's still just 27. He's a team-first guy. He took a and aggressive, yet patient plate appearance. He just didn't come through on that occurrence. It was the right move, and hopefully Gardy would do the same thing in that same situation if it comes up today.

    The "I'm right, you're wrong. There's only one way to think about baseball topics" thing bothers me to no end. Baseball is a game, played by humans. Managers should go by gut feel sometimes. In my opinion, there are no absolutes in baseball, and there shouldn't be. That's what makes the game great.

  7. #47
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    The "I'm right, you're wrong. There's only one way to think about baseball topics" thing bothers me to no end.
    Did someone say that? I have read through the entire thread and don't see it.

    Or are you just railing against logic or mathematics based debate in general?

  8. #48
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    Once again, Seth and I are in total agreement.
    Lighten up Francis....

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