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Thread: 2013 Draft: The Mocks

  1. #121
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    Matt Garrioch looked at draft success rates from '87-'01, so that doesn't entirely answer your question, but he found that success rates of pitchers taken in the first round were pretty much the same for pitchers taken from HS and 4yr colleges.

    He found that ~26% of college pitchers and ~23% of HS pitchers became occasional all-stars or better. Another ~4% of College pitchers and 9% of HS pitchers became solid regulars. You can check out more on his google docs page here:

    https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B-77.../edit?hl=en_US

  2. #122
    Senior Member Triple-A InfraRen's Avatar
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    ^Interesting!
    Till I Collapse

  3. #123
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    Another mock draft from bleacher reports and this one also has the Twins taking Stewart at #4. Here is the link:

    2013 MLB Mock Draft: Landing Spots for Top Pitchers in First Round | Bleacher Report

  4. #124
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    Another mock note. A blogger at SB Nation put together a Consensus mock draft list where he took 5 of the top mockers and figured out who's name is linked where the most. Link below:

    MLB 2013 draft: Consensus mock draft list - SBNation.com

  5. #125
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    Geeze, busy day for mockers. There is ANOTHER mock draft over at bleacher report but this one is one of those annoying ass slide shows..... They have the Twins taking Kohl Stewart, seems to be the popular pick, and here is what they have to say.

    Picking fourth means the Minnesota Twins will likely miss out on the draft's top three prospects: Appel, Gray and Bryant.On the plus side, it frees them from the shackles of having to pick one of those players. From their spot, they could go in any number of directions.If they are seeking a seasoned hitter, UNC's Colin Moran will be there for the taking. If they prefer another high-upside player in the Byron Buxton mold, there's two waiting to be plucked in Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier.More than likely, Minnesota will be going after the top available pitcher. Right now, it looks like they could have eyes for prep right-hander Kohl Stewart.Stewart is a pretty good consolation prize, offering mid-90s heat and arguably the best breaking ball in the draft. He is an exceptional athlete who has front-of-the-rotation stuff.On a related note, the Twins happen to lack a true ace.This is the perfect example of need meeting best available player.

    Full link below:
    2013 MLB Mock Draft: Best-Case Scenarios for All 30 Teams' First-Round Picks | Bleacher Report

  6. #126
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    Geeze, busy day for mockers. There is ANOTHER mock draft over at bleacher report but this one is one of those annoying ass slide shows..... They have the Twins taking Kohl Stewart, seems to be the popular pick, and here is what they have to say.

    Picking fourth means the Minnesota Twins will likely miss out on the draft's top three prospects: Appel, Gray and Bryant.On the plus side, it frees them from the shackles of having to pick one of those players. From their spot, they could go in any number of directions.If they are seeking a seasoned hitter, UNC's Colin Moran will be there for the taking. If they prefer another high-upside player in the Byron Buxton mold, there's two waiting to be plucked in Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier.More than likely, Minnesota will be going after the top available pitcher. Right now, it looks like they could have eyes for prep right-hander Kohl Stewart.Stewart is a pretty good consolation prize, offering mid-90s heat and arguably the best breaking ball in the draft. He is an exceptional athlete who has front-of-the-rotation stuff.On a related note, the Twins happen to lack a true ace.This is the perfect example of need meeting best available player.

    Full link below:
    2013 MLB Mock Draft: Best-Case Scenarios for All 30 Teams' First-Round Picks | Bleacher Report
    Pleeaaase.
    Till I Collapse

  7. #127
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    Christopher Crawford released his new mock draft and has the Twins taking Stewart. Link below:

    The Mock 2013: Volume VI |

  8. #128
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    Keih Law's second mock is out and it is an interesting one. Moran #1 and the Twins taking Stewart over Gray.

    http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story...2013-mlb-draft

  9. #129
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    SI released their second mock draft today and it is....well just as interesting as it's first mock. Bryant going #1 to the Astros and the Twins taking Frazier at #4. Link below:

    Mock Draft: Bryant, Gray, Appel still in running for top pick - MLB - SI.com

  10. #130
    At this point, I have no idea what to think about the player picked at #4. If Moran really goes #1, though, that makes things a little more fun.

  11. #131
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Twins Twerp's Avatar
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    If gray is available...boner

  12. #132
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    Keih Law's second mock is out and it is an interesting one. Moran #1 and the Twins taking Stewart over Gray.
    That seems crazy that the Twins would still take Stewart over Gray, but I think it also says a lot about how strongly Law feels about the Twins taking Stewart.

  13. #133
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pitz View Post
    That seems crazy that the Twins would still take Stewart over Gray, but I think it also says a lot about how strongly Law feels about the Twins taking Stewart.
    It is a very interesting situation. I personal prefer Gray but wouldn't be upset if they actually went Stewart. I don't care if a guy is a HS pitcher or a college pitcher. If this ended up being the case I would support the scouts on their choice.

  14. #134
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    Quote Originally Posted by Twins Twerp View Post
    If gray is available...boner
    Haha, agreed! I have him #1 on my board. Image Meyers/Gray, two guys that can hit 100, pitching back to back is sexy.

  15. #135
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    Haha, agreed! I have him #1 on my board. Image Meyers/Gray, two guys that can hit 100, pitching back to back is sexy.
    AND if May can get his act together?! 3 starters spittin fire up on the mound? Unheard of! Round it off with Gibby and (insert name here) - cool!
    Till I Collapse

  16. #136
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    Two more updates. Today Mayo released his second mock draft and he too now has the Twins taking Stewart. Here is what he had to say:

    "The Twins have liked Stewart's power right arm all along and will have a comfort level that they can sign him away from Texas A&M football before he commits."

    Link below:
    http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130530&content_id=48991342&vkey= news_mlb&c_id=mlb

    The second article isn't a mock but a study of 27 mocks (not including Mayo/Law's today). It shows the median, mode, worst, best, and average of the players taken in the top 10. Very interesting read. Link below:

    85% Sports Mock Draft Value Board - A Different Approach - Minor League Ball
    Last edited by John Bonnes; 05-31-2013 at 12:14 PM.

  17. #137
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    I'm sorry, but if Gray is available, there is no way they take Stewart. Howeer, it is good to hear that the Twins are comfortable with Stewart's price tag.

    BTW, is anyone else surprised that the Rockies seem fixated on adding a hitter if Appel or Gray are on the board when they pick? They could use pitching as much as anyone, I think.

  18. #138
    Food for thought...

    Doing a quick check of accuracy of last years' final mocks. KLaw, SI, and Baseball America all had Appel going #1 with only KLaw seeming to have significant doubt about Houston going with him.

    Just thought I'd throw that out there for everyone who thinks that the draft will go a certain way (i.e. some combo of Gray, Appel, Bryant going 1,2,3).

  19. #139
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    I'll add that I think Law's logic for the Astros going with Moran seems rock solid:

    the buzz within the industry has Houston leaning toward this scenario: Houston takes Moran, knowing his next-best alternative is to go No. 5 to Cleveland, whose slot value is $3,787,000. By doing this, the Astros could offer him $4 million or so and know he'd accept it. The value of the No. 1 pick is $7.79 million, which means the Astros would then have sufficient savings to take first-round talents who fell at picks 40 and 74, something they've already shopped around to some prep players who aren't going in the top 33.
    It seems odd, but the way this draft works with slots, etc, really seems to encourage the top teams to consider going for a player much less than slots like Houston did last year and might do this year. At least unless there is a clear-cut star like Harper or Strassburg.

    Boy, would this be good news for the Twins. I'd be doing backflips. And I'm WAY too big to do backflips.

  20. #140
    I think Law is very dialed in and if his mock has the Twins taking Stewart over Gray if both are available, I think it's a strong indicator that very well may happen. It also means if Gray isn't available the Twins will still get their true target in Stewart.
    Hi Everybody...

    Touch Em All Steve Lombardozzi

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