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Thread: Article: Twins MLB Draft Profile: Kohl Stewart, RHP

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    Twins Daily Writer All-Star Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
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    Article: Twins MLB Draft Profile: Kohl Stewart, RHP


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    Senior Member Triple-A h2oface's Avatar
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    Watching the Cardinals and Orioles starting pitchers from the 2012 draft...... you have to wonder if the Twins really want pitching help.

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    I'm trying to get a read on who Jeremy "wants" the Twins to pick as a fan. He was the first to predict Stewart to the Twins so that may be an indication. I'm starting to convince myself to be pleased when they take McGuire at 4 and hopefully get a high value player in the 2nd round.

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer righty8383's Avatar
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    Honest question, why should it be noted that he is diabetic?

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    Twins Daily Writer All-Star Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by righty8383 View Post
    Honest question, why should it be noted that he is diabetic?
    When you're potentially giving someone millions of dollars, health issues should be mentioned. His adjustment to minor-league ball could be more difficult. It sounds as though the Twins have no concerns, but I'm not sure that would be the case with every team.

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    Diabetes isn't that big a deal as long as it's under control and Stewart is sticking with his diet/medical plan. He can function pretty normally in that case. It's an issue if he doesn't take his meds or watch what he eats (then again, in professional sports, this is an issue whether he's diabetic or not)... There's some risk there, if the Twins are going to plunk 4M on him, but that's also something that some decent research will uncover.

  7. #7
    If the Twins draft him, it will be knowing what it will take to sign him. I'm not worried about that aspect.

    I dislike the idea of HS pitchers this high in the draft. The risk is so crazy high that, in my view, it outweighs any potential rewards.

    However...I can't say I'm thrilled about the alternatives. I guess one of the college pitchers. I'll be surprised if they make an under slot deal with a lesser talent in order to pay more later in the draft, because they don't have another pick until 43. It would be easier to see if you could transfer unspent draft money to international free agents, but you can't.

    Thanks for all the work on this, Jeremy. They've been fun to read.

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    Is there supposed to be a blue background on this article? Almost unreadable with black font.

    Who is he? Future #1 starter for the MN Twins, that's who.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Eric in Madison View Post

    However...I can't say I'm thrilled about the alternatives. I guess one of the college pitchers. I'll be surprised if they make an under slot deal with a lesser talent in order to pay more later in the draft, because they don't have another pick until 43. It would be easier to see if you could transfer unspent draft money to international free agents, but you can't.

    Thanks for all the work on this, Jeremy. They've been fun to read.
    This is pretty much how I feel. I might come around to Shipley, a Zimmer like guy who might be a #2 but I really don't want a non-pitcher. Big hope would be that the Astros take Moran and let one of the big 3 fall to us but if that doesn't happen, Stewert isn't a bad consolation prize.

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    Two comments relating to the risks of high-school pitchers, but long story short, I don't think drafting the best high school pitcher is any more risky than drafting a college pitcher.

    First, if you look at the list of right-handed college pitchers selected in the top-5 in the same timeframe, the results aren't that much better:

    Mark Prior, Cubs, 2nd, 2001
    Dewon Brazelton, TB, 3rd, 2001
    Bryan Bullington, Pittsburgh, 1st, 2002
    Kyle Sleeth, Detroit, 3rd, 2003
    Tim Stauffer, SD, 4th, 2003
    Justin Verlander, Detroit, 2nd, 2004
    Philip Humber, NYM, 3rd, 2004
    Jeff Niemann, TB, 4th, 2004
    Luke Hochevar, KC, 1st, 2006
    Greg Reynolds, Col, 2nd, 2006
    Brad Lincoln, Pit, 4th, 2006
    Brandon Morrow, Sea, 5th, 2006
    Stephen Strasburg, Was, 1st, 2009
    Gerrit Cole, Pit, 1st, 2011
    Trevor Bauer, Arz, 3rd, 2011
    Kevin Gausman, Bal, 4th, 2012
    Kyle Zimmer, KC, 5th, 2012

    The second point is that if one looks at the high school pitchers drafted in the top-10 (not just top-5), there are a lot of good names.

    Colt Griffin, KC, 9th, 2001
    Zach Grienke, KC, 6th, 2002
    John Danks, Tex, 9th, 2003
    Homer Bailey, Cin, 7th, 2004
    Clayton Kershaw, LAD, 7th, 2006
    Jarrod Parker, Arz, 9th, 2007
    Madison Bumgarner, SF, 10th, 2007
    Zach Wheeler, SF, 6th, 2009
    Jacob Turner, Det, 9th, 2009
    Karsten Whitson, SD, 9th, 2010
    Archie Bradley, Arz, 7th, 2011
    Max Fried, SD, 7th, 2012

    Analyzing the results of players based on their draft position is error prone on several levels, and one of the more important reasons is that the signability rather than the talent of a player often impacts their draft position, particularly prior to the current CBA. So it isn't always a fair assertion to say that the first high school pitcher drafted in a given year was actual the best high school pitcher. When comparing the drafting Stewart to previous drafts, it is important to look at how the consensus best high school pitcher performed, rather than those that were drafted highest. I would like to research this question a little further, but I don't have the time right now.

    Taking both lists together, I don't see any clear-cut evidence that high school pitchers are a riskier commodity than college pitchers. All pitchers have a lot of risk, so I don't think it makes any sense to skip on Stewart and instead draft a second-tier college pitcher like Shipley just to avoid risk.

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    Senior Member Triple-A InfraRen's Avatar
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    Though he is a year or two further away from making a contribution than many fans would prefer, you can’t try to turn the baseball draft into band-aids. At the end of the day, you want to have as much talent in the organization as possible and adding a talent - albeit someone who is a little raw (due to time spent on another sport) and comes with a significant amount of risk – is a giant leap in the right direction.
    THIS. When you're drafting this high, the bust rate is always going to be high, HS pitcher/hitter, college pitcher/hitter. You NEVER know. So you pick the guy with the highest potential and hope for the best. That's Kohl Stewart.
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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    markos, thanks for a very informative post!

  13. #13
    Don't like the videos on Stewert. Lacks control. All over the place. I hope the Astros take the 3B from N Carolina and one of the big 3 drop to us. If not, Shipley or Stanke, maybe Manea appeal more to me then Stewert.

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    Manaea? he won't even be a first round pick now.
    Lighten up Francis....

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    Senior Member Triple-A Steve Lein's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by righty8383 View Post
    Honest question, why should it be noted that he is diabetic?
    It's not really a big deal if it is controlled well. However, as a diabetic myself, I can attest that it also carries a higher risk of injuries to things such as the shoulder. I have a bad wing right now and my doctor mentioned the issue I have is quite common for diabetics. Has to do with blood circulation to soft tissue/muscles.
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    Senior Member Triple-A InfraRen's Avatar
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    Perfect Game just posted their top 50 Draft Prospect Scouting Report, first 5 are free. Stewart:

    5. KOHL STEWART, rhp, St. Pius X HS, Tomball (Texas)
    Stewart came into the spring with as many questions dogging him as any top prospect in the country but has stepped up and answered all of them emphatically. The first and most important question was the health of his right shoulder, which was injured in a football game in November. Not only did Stewart come back healthy, he came back better, with his fastball velocity consistently in the mid-90s, complemented by a newly developed curveball that immediately rivaled his already potential plus slider for quality. With his name now being mentioned frequently and almost exclusively among the top 10 picks, the questions about Stewart taking advantage of his football opportunities at Texas A&M have also become less frequent, although they are sure to play a leverage role in his draft negotiations. For more on the hard throwing Texas right hander, read his Perfect Game Draft Focus Profile here.
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    Just to add a bit of backing to Markos' excellent post, Matt Garrioch did a study of drafts from '87-'01 and the success rate of all players in all rounds. He found that there was almost no difference between the success rate of high school pitchers and college pitchers drafted in the first round. IIRC high school pitchers actually had a ~1% better chance to become average or better pitchers.

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    Jeremy's list of recent HS righties drafted top 5:

    Dylan Bundy, Baltimore, 4th overall, 2011
    Jameson Taillon, Pittsburgh, 2nd overall, 2010
    Matt Hobgood, Baltimore, 5th overall, 2009
    Mark Rogers, Milwaukee, 5th overall, 2004
    Chris Gruler, Cincinnati, 3rd overall, 2002
    Clint Everts, Montreal, 5th overall, 2002
    Gavin Floyd, Philadelphia, 4th overall, 2001

    Markos' list of recent HS righties drafted 6-10

    Quote Originally Posted by markos View Post
    Colt Griffin, KC, 9th, 2001
    Zach Grienke, KC, 6th, 2002
    John Danks, Tex, 9th, 2003
    Homer Bailey, Cin, 7th, 2004
    Clayton Kershaw, LAD, 7th, 2006
    Jarrod Parker, Arz, 9th, 2007
    Madison Bumgarner, SF, 10th, 2007
    Zach Wheeler, SF, 6th, 2009
    Jacob Turner, Det, 9th, 2009
    Karsten Whitson, SD, 9th, 2010
    Archie Bradley, Arz, 7th, 2011
    Max Fried, SD, 7th, 2012
    Strange that the guys picked 6-10 are better than the guys picked top five. Perhaps this just indicates that teams have been more cautious than needed with HS pitchers. Many of the guys picked 6-10 would have been well worth a top 5 pick.

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    Even if he became the twins best pitcher ever I couldn't cheer for this kid. Hope the Twins look elsewhere.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Jeremy's list of recent HS righties drafted top 5:

    Dylan Bundy, Baltimore, 4th overall, 2011
    Jameson Taillon, Pittsburgh, 2nd overall, 2010
    Matt Hobgood, Baltimore, 5th overall, 2009
    Mark Rogers, Milwaukee, 5th overall, 2004
    Chris Gruler, Cincinnati, 3rd overall, 2002
    Clint Everts, Montreal, 5th overall, 2002
    Gavin Floyd, Philadelphia, 4th overall, 2001

    Markos' list of recent HS righties drafted 6-10



    Strange that the guys picked 6-10 are better than the guys picked top five. Perhaps this just indicates that teams have been more cautious than needed with HS pitchers. Many of the guys picked 6-10 would have been well worth a top 5 pick.
    Many of those guys drafted 6-10 were the first HS pitchers off the board though. Grienke was the third HS arm off the board in 2002, Homer Bailey has been meh and was the second HS arm picked in 2004 and Zach Wheeler was the second HS arm of 2009. So at this point only Grienke really stands out as being drafted later than he should have been. Zach Wheeler certainly could be added to that list by next season. All in all though the order in which the HS arms have been drafted seems to have been pretty good. At least with respect to those 2 lists.

    Rereading your post you clearly are just saying you thing more HS arms should have gone top 5 which I agree with.

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