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Thread: Could Jose Berrios be promoted?

  1. #21
    They could, but they shouldn't

  2. #22
    Super Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Everything in between is just too controversial.
    Take a chance now and then.

    Me, I'm content to let him stay where he is now, without ruling out a promotion in a month or so. He's striking out guys, but the WHIP is high enough that I think his ERA is the outlier - an artifact of having given up no home runs at all. Let him give up a few HR but bring that WHIP down a notch, and I'm ready to see him move up. With a slightly higher WHIP plus some home runs, he could have an ERA of 6+ his first several starts at high-A, and that would accomplish little.

    As others have said, an entire season in the state of Iowa might not be the worst thing for a young guy from far away. Fort Myers is not the place I want someone getting a first impression of mainland America.

  3. #23
    Senior Member Double-A MWLFan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by boylan View Post
    I was sitting next to you at the game.

    I agree with everything you said but one thing to note is that he had family at the game that he paid a lot of attention to after he was taken out so he probably felt some extra pressure.

    I didn't think he pitched that well. I saw few pitches over 90mph and from my angle behind the dugout he his pitches looked flat and a little higher than I would have liked.
    I was at this game too and agree with the comments from those other folks attending. He could be a stud pitcher, the Low Class A hitters were overmatched most of the time, but he is a work in progress with mound presence and focus. I saw the same reaction to the 1st inning error. He was not pounding his mitt or having a prolonged glare at 2b. But you could see he was letting that effect him. Now he still struck out what 9 guys in 5 innings or so, but he is only 19 and could use a bit more time to work on his head. Twins have seen their share of young head cases with talent make it to the majors and struggle beyond what their talent says the should. Kyle Lohse, Frankie Liriano, Frankie Rodriguez just name a few. He has the arm though, casue when he was on those hittesr were way overmatched and it isn't just a mid 90's fastball. He was changing speed and working around the zone. So don't think he was just blowing people away. He looks like he can pitch too and throw. Nuture this one guys.

  4. #24
    Senior Member Double-A MWLFan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SD Buhr View Post
    I think it's important not to tag the kid with a "bad attitude" at this point. From what I see, he just "wants it" so bad that he allows his emotions to cost him his focus at times. Over time, he'll figure out that it's a long season and you can't let every bad bounce get to you or you'll go crazy. Once they teach him that all he can control is what he does with the ball in his hand, he'll be fine, because he cand do plenty when the ball is in his hand.

    Agree what I saw was not attitude but dealing with the reality of failure, other peoples failures at time which cause you to work harder. I think most of us get this at work, but we aren't pulling together spreadsheets and powerpoint decks in front of thousands of people. As a teenager it maybe a case just needing to mature a bit around how to refocus and move on. From what I saw that night it is lapses in focus and not all out meltdowns, but the batters will make you pay for those moments.

  5. #25
    Please ban me! All-Star stringer bell's Avatar
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    Even though I have only seen Berrios throw literally two or three pitches (at the WBC) I have predicted he will be the next Twin to make his debut before he turns 21. Since he started late this year, it may be in his best interest to stay in Cedar Rapids for a couple of months, maybe getting a taste of the FSL late, or just sticking around for the Midwest playoffs. Next year should be his "moving " year, probably starting in Ft. Myers, but I wouldn't rule out ending in Rochester or perhaps even Minnesota, if he is dominant and shows the requisite amount of maturity and mound presence. He just turned 19 four days ago, so he is truly a young'un.

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steve Lein View Post
    It's not like I'm making something up about how the Twins handle these guys, talent level taken into account high or low, it hasn't mattered.

    edited out

    I don't think he's really forcing anything right now. The performance has been pretty good so far, but not dominating, and that's what it would take.

    I think it would be great if they promoted him, as I do think he's more advanced than what he's going against in Low-A, but it's also good for the guy to get more exposure in the league he is in, especially in his first full season. It has been only six starts after all.
    I actually don't think that he's going to fly through the minors but I find your analysis to be incredibly lazy. If you are going to make the claim that this how they handle these guys regardless of talent level then you should have an example of at least one if not several guys as talented as Berrios to back it up.

    These same things were said about young hitters because the Twins hadn't aggressively promoted them before. For example Arcia and he has moved multiple levels per year debuting just before his 22nd birthday. The same thing was said about Sano and he is probably a lock for a midseason promotion. Same goes for Buxton and possibly even Rosario. If you read the draft threads people are saying the same thing about Stewart.

    If a player is earning promotions then he will move quicker than this historical precendent of lesser prospects. I also think that a 10.8 K/9 and a 1.6 BB/9 to be fairly dominating.

  7. #27
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    I was at the game tonight watching Berrios pitch. I had never seen him live so I was pretty excited. I was sitting right behind home plate so I had a great vantage point. The first inning was ugly but could have gone terribly awry. Jorge Polanco botched an inning ending double play and Berrios was rattled like some of the reports on this thread have said. The pitching coach immediately came out to calm him down. He ended up getting out of the inning with just one run.

    But after the first he really settled down, started working quickly and looked fantastic. His fastball was getting swings and misses and he didn't seem to be afraid to throw his offspeed stuff in any count. He ended up only giving up 2 hits.

    He's got things to work on of course. He is only 19 after all. He worked through a tough first inning and didn't implode. I was impressed. I'll probably do a write up of the whole game but I just wanted to drop in on this thread.

  8. #28
    Senior Member Triple-A InfraRen's Avatar
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    ^Good stuff man, thanks.
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    Till I Collapse

  9. #29
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    I'd say leave him at CR unless his performance starts to absolutely demand a promotion.
    Let him start the year at FTM next year as a 19 year old, and if he earns a promotion to AA late in the season, he will still be extremely young for his league.

  10. #30
    Senior Member All-Star YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
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    I don't think Ft. Myers would be a huge step for him to take. There are better hitters, but the FSL is a good environment for pitchers. Although, I think he should stick it out in Cedar Rapids unless his performance spikes. He's got a great future and I hope the Twins move him along with Buxton.

  11. #31
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    JO Berrios retweeted tweets from his girlfriend and mom prior to this last start. They were excitedly tweeting about their visit to CR for the game. One can imagine the kid being really amped up, so I'm in agreement with those who are cautioning ahainst reading too much into his behavior in this one game.

  12. #32
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    Need to learn not to let things behind him affect him. It is hard to do, even at my age I still do it once in a great while. Once he conquers the mental game, he should move up fast.

  13. #33
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    I recall several Twins officials (including Antony) quoted as saying that he might be one exception to the one-level-at-a-time high school promotion schedule. But it depends on how well he adjusts and matures. Right now, he has enough rough edges that I don't think he'll be promoted any time soon. But I wouldn't be surprised if he gets promoted in August or so. One way or another, I expect him to start next year in Fort Myers.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steve Lein View Post
    This is a prime example of where minor league stats don't tell nearly the whole story. There are reasons Taillon is ranked near top-10 in all of baseball prospects and Berrios isn't mentioned in any top 100 lists. Just saying. Taillon is referenced everywhere as a potential ace-level pitcher, Berrios gets #2/3 projections. Will Berrios show up on those lists next year? It wouldn't surprise me, but it also won't be that high. Would his performance to date merit a promotion more than Taillon did? Sure. But that doesn't mean it should or would happen. I'd say he doesn't go to Fort Myers until August, if at all. They'll promote the guys with College experience in CR first. It's what they do.
    Sickels thinks he could be close. "I love Berrios and he could be a Top 30 guy a year from now, maybe higher."
    Minor League Ball Top 150 Prospects for 2013 - Minor League Ball

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by iastfan112 View Post
    Sickels thinks he could be close. "I love Berrios and he could be a Top 30 guy a year from now, maybe higher."
    Minor League Ball Top 150 Prospects for 2013 - Minor League Ball
    That is interesting and pretty cool to here. It was a little interesting to see how he ranked Buxton at the time. I am sure that would be a little different now.

  16. #36
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    Twins wont promote him unless he dominates. His strike outs look good now but he is giving up hits and kind of laboring. But if he gets it on I could see him sent to FSL for the final month or two.

    For now let him pitch some more and learn how to pitch.

  17. #37
    Senior Member Triple-A Steve Lein's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    I actually don't think that he's going to fly through the minors but I find your analysis to be incredibly lazy. If you are going to make the claim that this how they handle these guys regardless of talent level then you should have an example of at least one if not several guys as talented as Berrios to back it up.

    ...

    If a player is earning promotions then he will move quicker than this historical precendent of lesser prospects. I also think that a 10.8 K/9 and a 1.6 BB/9 to be fairly dominating.
    It's definitely not laziness, and quite frankly, if you go by how some HS prospects were thought of at the time they were drafted or a year after like is the case with Berrios now, there has been plenty of guys who were thought to have similar upside:

    Kyle Waldrop (many thought he had best curveball in his draft), Jay Rainville (Mid-90's FB, hard slider), B.J. Hermsen (thought his body projected him for increased velocity, and was refined already), Hudson Boyd (mid-90's heat, workhorse body), etc... You will notice it's not all that great of a list, so my advice is just to temper expectations for a while. You may think Berrios is far above these guys, and he might be, but it's very early for him, which is basically the main reason for a slow timeline right now.

    As for "fairly dominating" - He is giving up more than a hit per inning to go along with it. When that is the case, you tend to get more opportunities for K's and suggests inconsistency with some of his pitches. He's kept the ball in the ballpark so far as well, and that's not going to be the case at higher levels.
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  18. #38
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    Once again you name a bunch of guys that did absolutely nothing to deserve promotions in full season ball. Hermsen, Boyd and Waldrop were all sub 7 K/9 guys pretty much their entire MiLB careers. Rainville had some success but there were no illusions that he was dominating before he messed up his arm. They might have had a similar status to Berrios at draft time but Berrios has significantly distanced himself that pack. If that is the best set of comparables that you have against Berrios advancing quickly then you don't even have an argument.

    Like I said earlier I actually don't think he will advance really quickly. Best case imo is 3 levels in 2 years. I just get sick of the constant complaint that the Twins promote slowly and (insert any young prospect) won't be called up for 4+ years. The Twins are conservative but they haven't had any hot prospects that were held back recently (possibly Sano last year). They have had some fringy guys that got stuck at a level for too long but these were guys that projected more as 4th Of'ers or utility players.

    He's given up a lot of hits because he has a .400 BAPIP. I think you will see your 'he's given up more than a hit/inning' argument go away as this number declines.

  19. #39
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    Once again you name a bunch of guys that did absolutely nothing to deserve promotions in full season ball. Hermsen, Boyd and Waldrop were all sub 7 K/9 guys pretty much their entire MiLB careers. Rainville had some success but there were no illusions that he was dominating before he messed up his arm. They might have had a similar status to Berrios at draft time but Berrios has significantly distanced himself that pack. If that is the best set of comparables that you have against Berrios advancing quickly then you don't even have an argument.

    Like I said earlier I actually don't think he will advance really quickly. Best case imo is 3 levels in 2 years. I just get sick of the constant complaint that the Twins promote slowly and (insert any young prospect) won't be called up for 4+ years. The Twins are conservative but they haven't had any hot prospects that were held back recently (possibly Sano last year). They have had some fringy guys that got stuck at a level for too long but these were guys that projected more as 4th Of'ers or utility players.

    He's given up a lot of hits because he has a .400 BAPIP. I think you will see your 'he's given up more than a hit/inning' argument go away as this number declines.
    He's already on the fast track by Twins standards. He's pitched at three levels in a total of 18 games as a 19 year old. When his WHIP goes down closer to 1 (as it will with the inevitable BABIP regression), he'll get the call.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  20. #40
    Senior Member Triple-A Steve Lein's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    Once again you name a bunch of guys that did absolutely nothing to deserve promotions in full season ball.
    Again, he's a High School Drafted pitcher, 19 years old, and will be on an innings limit (probably less than 130, certainly not any more than 150) because of this. He might go to Fort Myers for a few starts at the end of the year, but he's not going to get promoted before that unless he starts blanking teams every time out. And if bad plays during a game tend to bring out some emotions like people here are suggesting, that's another mark for holding him back this early in his career.

    I'm not arguing against your promote based on performance thought. I'm telling you it's not going to happen soon because he is a pitcher drafted out of high-school in his first full season, not really anything more to it than that.

    I honestly hope I'm wrong, as I've stated already I think his talent level right now is above Low-A, but you're arguing a point I'm not even trying to make, or one that I disagree with you on.

    And I can find a few guys who got promoted after 7 starts in a league, but they were drafted out of college pitchers putting up better numbers than Berrios has so far, in a higher/tougher league (Gibson, Baker, Garza). Heck, it took Slowey 14 starts in High-A before being promoted, and he put up better numbers there than any of them.
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