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Thread: Official Day 1 Draft Thread

  1. #41
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    Not to mention the Yankees and others have multiple picks....while they can't go over slot in the draft, players know the Yankees will reward them well if they make the majors....I just think undershooting talent is super risky, way more risky than taking a HS player......
    Lighten up Francis....

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    I was thinking about that this morning, if the Twins were going to go underslot, which they shouldn't, why would they go all the way down to get McGuire? Why not go for Ball, Shipley or Stankek? Or if they wanted to go farther down the list Bickford or Clarkin?
    probably because the perceived discount wouldn't be enough to get another guy high on their board. the two-fer makes sense but there's no telling who is going to be there at 43.

    that said, if stewart is sticking to his guns re: a&M (which seems to be posturing right now), this might be my second favourite realistic option.

  3. #43
    Senior Member Triple-A InfraRen's Avatar
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    JIM BOWDEN@JimBowdenESPNxm20s
    Bowden Big Board: 1.Kris Bryant 2.Mark Appel 3.Jonathan Gray 4.Clint Frazier 5.Kohl Stewart 6.Austin Meadows 7.Braden Shipley 8. DJ Peterson
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  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vervehound View Post
    probably because the perceived discount wouldn't be enough to get another guy high on their board. the two-fer makes sense but there's no telling who is going to be there at 43.

    that said, if stewart is sticking to his guns re: a&M (which seems to be posturing right now), this might be my second favourite realistic option.
    Any young Latin boys we should be looking at in round 2?

  5. #45
    Senior Member Triple-A InfraRen's Avatar
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    Chris Crawford@CrawfordChrisV9s
    I opened the draft chat for your questions, we'll get started in about 15-20 minutes. #mlbdraft http://bit.ly/18Zcf5X

    Wow - sounds like he's going to go pretty much all day, get your Twins questions in:

    Welcome everyone. We'll go for a few hours -- assuming you have questions for a few hours -- and then we'll take a break and get going through the night. I should warn you that I will be sporadic in this, as I am chatting over at ESPN as well. We'll see how good I am at multi-tasking.
    Last edited by InfraRen; 06-06-2013 at 10:56 AM.
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  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Badsmerf View Post
    It has been proven that a HS starter is no more risky than a college starter. College starters are just closer to the MLB. On the other hand, with a HS starter you can refine his delivery while he is young and monitor the stress put on the arm. IMO, college coaches can be pretty hard on arms. I just don't like the argument that since he is a HS pitcher he is "super risky."
    Actualy more college pitchers taken in the first round over the last 40 or so years have made it to the majors, however on the average a HS pitcher that does make it is usualy better than a college arm. Is that what you meant? Heres a graph I found

    Category College Pitchers 1965-2008 High School Pitchers 1965-2008
    Drafted 356 307
    Made Majors 253 (71.1%) 176 (57.3%)
    Made Avg. WAR 6.65 7.23
    100+ Appearances 147 (41.3%) 100 (32.6%)
    100+ Avg. WAR 11.58 12.69


    It shows a higher percent of college pitchers make the majors but HS pitchers are usualy better.

  7. #47
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    Comment From Cory
    Any chance Appel, Gray or Bryant fall to #4? I'm hoping for Appel or Gray on the Twins.

    8:51
    I would put the odds on one of the three being available at 45 percent. Most likely Bryant.
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  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by worm33 View Post
    Disagree....A more likely scenario would be Appell falling with Stewart available and the Twins taking someone like Reese Mcguire....I do not buy the twins taking Stewart. They have not taken a HS pitcher with their first pick in a draft since Dan Serafini in 1992 26th overall. Let alone one with signability concerns and leverage on his side. This is the 4th pick, I just dont see it. My #1 wish is Bryant followed by Gray.
    Of course if Appel fell that means another team above the Twins were going to underslot route. That team would still be picking before the Twins at #43 and would be able to snag Manaea or whoever you are hopeing for at that point.

    I don't think the Twins are going to pass up the BPA due to signability. Stewart and Appel won't be nearly as hard to sign once the deadline approaches.

  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by InfraRen View Post
    Comment From Cory
    Any chance Appel, Gray or Bryant fall to #4? I'm hoping for Appel or Gray on the Twins.

    8:51
    I would put the odds on one of the three being available at 45 percent. Most likely Bryant.

    I find that hard to believe. I would say its atleast a 55-60% chance one of them makes it to the Twins. I mean I could be wrong but how in many drafts have the top 3 rated guys actualy all been picked in the top 3? It just seems like one of them will fall for sure, especialy with the way the draft is set up now

  10. #50
    Senior Member Triple-A InfraRen's Avatar
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    Comment From Guest
    Kris Bryant = Miguel Sano, yes or no?

    9:04 I think Sano is slightly better, which is no knock on Bryant.


    9:04
    Comment From Chris
    Would the Twins draft Bryant if he falls to the 4?

    9:05 If Gray/Appel are off the board, yes.


    9:06
    Comment From Andrew
    If the Big 3 shake-up does go down, do you see the Twins taking one of them (Bryant,Appel,Gray) for sure over Kohl Stewart? Have heard from local baseball writers they "love" Stewart.


    9:07 Love isn't strong enough of a word, but if Bryant or Gray are available, I think they're the pick. It's close though, kind of a divided room.


    9:16
    Comment From Greg
    What are your thoughts on Ryan Boldt? Poor man's David Dahl?

    9:17 Wouldn't call him a poor mans anything. He's got three 60 tools. The injury though makes him a very volatile prospect.


    9:19
    Comment From David
    who was better coming out of HS into their respective drafts, Shelby Miller, Koll Stewart or Lance McCullers?


    9:20 Kohl Stewart. I wasn't a huge fan of McCullers and I think Stewart has more helium than Miller did. Though Miller is/was fantastic.

    Last edited by InfraRen; 06-06-2013 at 11:20 AM.
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  11. #51
    Senior Member Triple-A InfraRen's Avatar
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    Aaron Gleeman@AaronGleeman3m
    For whatever it's worth, I talked to a buddy in another team's front office who thinks the Twins will draft Kohl Stewart no matter what.
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  12. #52
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    My trust in the Twins evaluating hitters has me crossing my fingers for Bryant.

  13. #53
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    There is also this from Baseball America:
    Top 100 Draft Flashback: What Does It All Mean? - BaseballAmerica.com

    PITCHERS • TOP 100 PICKS • 1989-2008 DRAFTS
    Position Source Signed Graduate Graduate% Impact Impact% Top 5
    RHP HS 275 90 32.7% 31 11.3% 198
    RHP 4YR 367 136 37.1% 55 15.0% 207
    LHP HS 113 37 32.7% 17 15.0% 157
    LHP 4YR 146 70 47.9% 21 14.4% 140
    HS 388 127 32.7% 48 12.4% 355
    4YR 513 206 40.2% 76 14.8% 347
    TOTAL 901 333 37.0% 124 13.8% 702
    Graduate = 30 MLB games • Impact = 5 career WAR • Top 5 = WAR sum for five best

    Beyond this data, I feel that baseball has completely changed how they handle young pitchers in the last 10 years, which is why I think that even studies like this over-sell the risk of high school pitchers. The over-use of pitchers is still rampant in college.

  14. #54
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    Darren Wolfson@DarrenWolfson14s
    FWIW, the #MNTwins have not reached out on Colin Moran or Austin Meadows. Most signs still point to Kohl Stewart at No. 4 tonight.
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  15. #55
    Not a fan of a Kohl Stewart pick. All scouting reports uniformly give him a very low grade for command and if you look at the scouting tape on the net he very deliberately looks at his feet mid-motion on every single pitch. As a consequence he picks up the target late and his pitches, while having a very nice trajectory, wander around the plate area.

    I've never seen a coach successfully correct this except through "muscle memory" (which is a BS approach to something like this) and I think Stewart winds up as a middle reliever or back-end rotation guy at best.

    There are better options.

  16. #56
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    Has anyone seen Klaws new mock yet? He said he was working on one last night, I dont know if its out yet?

  17. #57
    Senior Member Triple-A InfraRen's Avatar
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    ^It's out, just haven't seen it yet. (I'm not an Insider)
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  18. #58
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    Darren Wolfson@DarrenWolfson14s
    Advisor via text just now w/ a stake in the #MNTwins draft: "Stewart is going 4." Me: "What if he goes 1 to hometown?" Advisor: "He's not. "
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  19. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by boylan View Post
    Not a fan of a Kohl Stewart pick. All scouting reports uniformly give him a very low grade for command and if you look at the scouting tape on the net he very deliberately looks at his feet mid-motion on every single pitch. As a consequence he picks up the target late and his pitches, while having a very nice trajectory, wander around the plate area.

    I've never seen a coach successfully correct this except through "muscle memory" (which is a BS approach to something like this) and I think Stewart winds up as a middle reliever or back-end rotation guy at best.

    There are better options.
    Who do you work for again? Are you a scout for a MLB team, HS or a College? Or something else? You must be a good pro scout to see something nobody else sees.

  20. #60
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    This entire discussion of course is centered on ranking information gleaned from a handful of sources. These people are credible for sure, but it's important to remember their resource limitations. The baseball teams have multiple scouts who see these prospects many times, over the entire continuum of their amateur careers. Two dozen scouting pros will have in the least studied lots of video. They'll have meaningful information about their character and makeup. They'll have had a lot of discussion about each top prospect. So it shouldn't be at all surprising if a player that BA for example ranks as say, the tenth best prospect, goes in the top five. And not because of an underslot strategy.

    So, we might want to get ready for the outrage if our team selects a prospect that doen't line up with Keith Law's point of view. I mean, just maybe the Twins truly believe that Frazier is the better prospect and not Stewart, just to throw out names. If that happens, it won't be because they aren't as competent as Jonathan Mayo. It''ll be a decision based on better information and a sounder basis.

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