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Thread: Article: What's the Plan: Byron Buxton

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by orangevening View Post
    Then watch a entire fan base deflate as both struggle Hicks-like and are sent back down. Being a GM is a tough, tough job and bringing these two up is going to be a tough, tough decision. A lot is riding on bringing our top prospects up and not just Sano and Buxton.
    I'll say it again, and again. Sano and Buxton aren't Hicks.

    Mike Trout was sent back down, neither he nor the fan base deflated when he struggled. Our fan base has failed to deflate this year thus far over some 80% of the season, despite another 90+ loss season and frequently putting some lineups out in the field that upon which, the likes of Hosken Powell, Butch Huskey and Terry Tiffee would have been the stars.

  2. #22
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    And I'm definitely not advocating for the placating of fans, I'm offering an easy way to folllow up on the Free National Pub from sensational articles like the one from Sports Illustrated and raking in some additional revenue during the dog days of the lost 2013 season on the way to the third straight 90+ loss year- while offering glimmers of very legitimate hope on the way, and furthermore, generating additional season ticket sales for 2014 (generating this type of feel-good optimism about the near-future is not placating, it's marketing).
    What you are describing is marketing. So if the choice is between promoting Buxton for "baseball reasons" or for "marketing reasons", it's splitting hairs whether someone else chose to use the phrase "placating fans" to really mean the latter. The question being raised is whether to let the latter trump the former.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    What you are describing is marketing. So if the choice is between promoting Buxton for "baseball reasons" or for "marketing reasons", it's splitting hairs whether someone else chose to use the phrase "placating fans" to really mean the latter. The question being raised is whether to let the latter trump the former.
    That's why I said "marketing" in closing. Brock's line of thinking was something to the effect of a Moore-like panic or desperation for making the move, ie, not well-thought out in full. In baseball and revenue sports in general, it's always about both entertainment and baseball development. I think my suggested course of action takes both points of view into account, and suggests that a move like this would be bold, dynamic, but not panicky or unfounded in its theoretical underpinnings.
    Last edited by jokin; 08-26-2013 at 11:28 AM.

  4. #24
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    Buxton needs to play some AA ball. Period. An A+ jump to the majors is irresponsible. Could he hack it? Quite possibly. Even Sano took a little time to adjust to AA. The jump from A+ to AA is often the 2nd most difficult jump to make in baseball. The jump from AAA to the majors is the largest. A+ to AA he's facing guys that are 1-3 or 4 years older, more physically mature, but also more baseball mature. He would likely get by on talent alone for a while.

    Jumping to the majors, he's facing the men that are both physically and baseball IQ wise far superior to him. Guys like Verlander, Scherzer, Sanchez and Porcello are not just talented, but they are veterans. The baseball intellect of these guys can only come from experience. Talent alone will show up in spurts. He will need to really need to be mentally and emotionally ready if a call up comes in MAy or June.

  5. #25
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    I'd call him up and build his confidence if the Twins were playing a series against a bunch of low velocity, junkball tossing, AAAA starters. Trying to think.....Doh.

  6. #26
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    That's why I said "marketing" in closing. Brock's line of thinking was something to the effect of a Moore-like panic or desperation for making the move, ie, not well-thought out in full. In baseball and revenue sports in general, it's always about both entertainment and baseball development. I think my suggested course of action takes both points of view into account, and suggests that a move like this would be bold, dynamic, but not panicky or unfounded in its theoretical underpinnings.
    Which is fair enough, I simply think that the development cycle should be based entirely on the player's needs and fan "need" shouldn't be a factor. The fans will get 6+ years of Buxton and I don't see the point in giving them 2-3 weeks right now just for the sake of doing it.

    As for Sano, as I said earlier "I'm fine with either decision". I really am... If Ryan wants him here in September, I'm fine with that. It requires 40-man finagling but nothing that should be terribly difficult to do. If he wants to see him in winter ball and prep him for 2014, I'm fine with that, too. We're going to see the guy very soon. Whether that is now or in seven months doesn't bother me too much.

  7. #27
    Let's take a deep breath here people. Buxton's had an incredible year but hasn't even played in the AFL, which seems to be a right of passage for all top prospects.

    I also used to hate how slow it seemed the Twins moved prospects but have started to change my tune. Bringing up guys at 23-24 allows them to keep a guy under team control through 29-30 essentially the first half of their peak vs 21-22 where a guy is hitting free agency right as he hits his peak.

    Obviously that can't factor in with a potential superstar, but it has allowed for the Twins to get cheap production out of players while letting other teams overpay in free agency for 2 years of prime production and then decline.

    I got off-topic but I say let him tear up AA for a month or two, then AAA for a month, and if he's still producing, he'll force his way onto the roster.

  8. #28
    I agree that appeasing the fan base (or marketing for that matter) shouldn't be a consideration. It's all about what's best for the prospect's development, which with Buxton, obviously has a direct correlation with what's best for the Twins. Everything else falls into place after that.

  9. #29
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    29-30 is not the peak, that's 1970s thinking......actually, the peak years are younger. There are many articles on line about elite talents, and when they should be up....and 23/4 is LATE for elite players.
    Lighten up Francis....

  10. #30
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    I agree with Jokin on this. I don't think he should be rushed and I'm not impatiently waiting for his MLB debut. However, I think he could really benefit for a couple weeks in the majors in September, and I also agree with Jokin, again, those few weeks will not damage him in anyway. Next season he can start in AA. There is no rule stating that, if you ended the year on the major league roster, you must start the next season on the major league roster. Let him see what the majors are about, and then in the spring, management can judge based on the previous September and his ST if he could break camp with the big club. I'm not saying it is going to happen or that he will continue to rake but if he adjusts quickly to the MLB like he did at A and A+ than what is the point of him getting sent to AA or AAA? Just because that is the norm? Buxton is the kind of player like Joe that you sign and keep for most if not all of his career. A year difference in team control should make no difference. Again, if he doesn't adjust quick there is no harm in him going to AA to start next season. But give him a chance to show if he's ready now.

    I also like to say that I am completely confused by people's shock that Hicks struggled. It was well stated by most everyone that he was going to be near awful if not awful in the majors before the season started. He has a history of taking a longer time than most to adjust to a new level/challenge. We all new this yet for some reason people didn't seem to expect it once the season started. He should have just stayed up and struggled. He confidence wasn't going to get any worse. He has gone through this at every level, now it starts all over in AAA. That might hurt his confidence even more than letting him stay with the Twins.

  11. #31
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    Also, if Sano comes up there is no reason not to have Rosario up. I still think that he will need the lesser amount of grooming between the two of them.

  12. #32
    Just want to say I love this series and the passionate discussion it stirs up. Hopefully I'm not playing spoiler, but are you guys planning on doing a overall "what's the the plan" I.e. a look at who will be playing where/pitching in the rotation in 2014/15?

  13. #33
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer amjgt's Avatar
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    Having heard about Buxton's work ethic, I would think it would be exciting for him to play a couple weeks playing against the best at the highest level, see what he has to do to be one of those best, and spend the offseason relentlessly working on those things.

    The 40-man roster issue is almost a non-starter for me, however the service time might be a big enough hurdle that Terry Ryan doesn't want to have to hop over.

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by orangevening View Post
    Just want to say I love this series and the passionate discussion it stirs up. Hopefully I'm not playing spoiler, but are you guys planning on doing a overall "what's the the plan" I.e. a look at who will be playing where/pitching in the rotation in 2014/15?
    Great point, orange. Kudos to whomever at TD who came up with the concept for this series, it's easily about the best thing going on Twins Daily at this point in the season.

    A grand summation article after a set of articles that focus on who and what's next for the Twins pitching staff can keep this good conversation going. We've all breathed a collective sigh of relief on Alex Meyer and he was well-covered in this series, but who else has a shot at making an impact on the Twins staff in 2014 and going forward soon thereafter?
    Last edited by jokin; 08-26-2013 at 03:41 PM.

  15. #35
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    29-30 is not the peak, that's 1970s thinking......actually, the peak years are younger. There are many articles on line about elite talents, and when they should be up....and 23/4 is LATE for elite players.
    Well, 26-28 are generally the peak seasons. Guys like Buxton who has speed as a primary weapon can tail off significantly but it looks like Byron has enough of a bat where losing a step won't crush him.

    Either way, he's going to be up here as a 22 year old at the very latest. That means the Twins will lose arb control somewhere around 28-29, which is just "past" his prime.

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    29-30 is not the peak, that's 1970s thinking......actually, the peak years are younger. There are many articles on line about elite talents, and when they should be up....and 23/4 is LATE for elite players.
    Baseball Prospectus | How Do Baseball Players Age?
    Hitters Age Like Wine ? Power Like Cheese? | FanGraphs Baseball

    Both indicate that the 28-29 season is part of the peak, admittedly the latter half. Given from what I've read the most valuable seasons to have control of are 24-29. Peak is actually around 29-30 for hitters if the player stays healthy but that's hardly a given.

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Well, 26-28 are generally the peak seasons. Guys like Buxton who has speed as a primary weapon can tail off significantly but it looks like Byron has enough of a bat where losing a step won't crush him.

    Either way, he's going to be up here as a 22 year old at the very latest. That means the Twins will lose arb control somewhere around 28-29, which is just "past" his prime.
    I think that is the wrong way to look at it. Guys whose primary weapon is speed will tail off, but Buxton obviously has a strong hit tool (and other tools as well). Athletic guys with plus hit tools and plate discipline age the best.

    I really think Buxton is about as close as one can come to the perfect prospect. I also think the thought of calling him up this year is insanity.
    Papers...business papers.

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by drjim View Post
    I think that is the wrong way to look at it. Guys whose primary weapon is speed will tail off, but Buxton obviously has a strong hit tool (and other tools as well). Athletic guys with plus hit tools and plate discipline age the best.

    I really think Buxton is about as close as one can come to the perfect prospect. I also think the thought of calling him up this year is insanity.
    I was right with you to the last word of the last sentence, but then again, it's incredibly hot and sticky outside and those that wouldn't be opposed to letting Buxton taking a look at major league life and accepting the infinitely small risk in putting him on the roster a little earlier than next July when he's likely called up anyway may very well be suffering from a mass case of heat stroke and weather-mania.... and after all that being said, I will be happy to defer to your point, you are the "doctor"
    Last edited by jokin; 08-26-2013 at 07:05 PM.

  19. #39
    Senior Member All-Star crarko's Avatar
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    I wouldn't be surprised to see both Buxton and Sano here just prior to the All-Star game. I also wouldn't be shocked to see it right after. Depends on how well the organization thinks they can handle the throng of national press in town for the game.

    At very least they would probably be in the Futures Game again, and may stick around afterwards.

  20. #40
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    I'm in the opposite camp here.
    I want the Twins to play the service time game long and slow with both Buxton and Sano.
    I see no chance of competing next year so want to delay their MLB debuts as long as possible.
    June or July 2014 for Sano assuming he does well in AAA next year
    June 2015 for Buxton.
    Hopefully that will give the organization enough time to figure out its starting pitching problems.

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