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Thread: BA prospect hot sheet August 30th

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    BA prospect hot sheet August 30th

    With the minor league season coming to an end BaseballAmerica released their final prospect hot sheet of the year. Three Twins made the list and here is why:

    #1 Byron Buxton
    Why Heís Here: .474/.655/.684 (9-for-19), 2 3B, 9 R, 1 RBI, 9 BB, 3 SO, 2-for-3 SBThe Scoop: The first 140-game season is an adjustment for anyone, and it has been for Buxton, who last hit a home run on July 28. But this is the No. 1 prospect in the game, so even if heís not hitting the ball out of the park, heís continuing to be an line-drive machine.
    This week, Florida State League pitchers gave up and stopped throwing him hittable pitches. Buxton, a 19-year-old with an advanced understanding of the strike zone, responded by simply taking ball four. He walked nine times this week to go with his nine hits. With two games left in August, Buxton has a .545 on-base percentage for the month, easily the best mark among full-season players.

    #10 Eddie Rosario

    Why Heís Here: .382/400/.559 (13-for-34), 1 HR, 3 2B, 8 RBIs, 6 R, 1 BB, 8 SO, 1-for-1 SB
    The Scoop: Rosario entered the week hitting just .197 (15-for-76) for August, but he had enough in the tank for one last hurrah. With four extra-base hits this week, he matched his total for the first 20 games of the month. Rosario faces an assignment to the Arizona Fall League in October, and heíll probably be thankful for the month off after hitting .255/.297/.355 through 26 games in August.

    #11 Alex Meyers
    Why Heís Here: 1-0, 0.00, 9 IP, 7 H, 0 R, 11 SO, 2 BB

    The Scoop: After missing nearly two months with a bout of shoulder soreness, Meyer seems as good as new. Tthough he went just five and four innings, respectively, due to innings limitations, the 6-foot-9 righty used his high-90s gas to carve up Bowie and Trenton. He probably will make one more start before the Rock Catsí season ends, meaning heíll finish with more than 100 strikeouts in not nearly as many innings.

    J.J. Cooper took some questions and here are the ones about Twins players:



    • I love Buxton and do believe he COULD be an elite talent. But I've always had an issue with players being rated in the top 10 (let alone #1) before having success at the higher levels. To me, guys like Bogarts or Russell are more deserving based on their seasons.


    J.J. Cooper: It's not a deserving thing. The Baseball America Top 100 Prospects list isn't about rewarding excellent seasons, it's about projecting who will be the stars and the solid big leaguers of tomorrow. Btw, I found it interesting you cited Russell, as it's hard to see how Russell would deserve being rated higher than Buxton based on doing it at a higher level. Playing a full season in hiA in a much better hitter's league, Russell has performed well, but Buxton has outperformed him at the same level, just in fewer games. But more importantly, I think you're supposition is misplaced. Last year, we had four players in our Top 10 who finished the year having played all or almost all of their pro games in A ball. Those four were Jose Fernandez, Xander Bogaerts, Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton. A year later, Fernandez is in the running for NL Rookie of the Year and Bogaerts, Sano and Buxton are now all top five prospects in the game with Bogaerts now in Boston. I don't think anything is gained in waiting til these guys get to Double-A to rank them top 10.



    • Thanks JJ. Assuming Byron Buxton does well in the Ariz. Fall League, is he likely to start in AA next spring?


    J.J. Cooper: I think if Buxton hits .000/.000/.000 in the AFL you start him in Double-A. He's handled everything the FSL can offer already.



    • Who gets a crack in the big leagues first, Sano or Taveras?


    J.J. Cooper: Taveras. I know he lost the year, but if Taveras has a normal Taveras' spring training, he's likely in the lineup on Opening Day in St. Louis. Sano could be with the Twins on Opening Day, but he's more likely to get a little more minor league time.



    • Eddie Rosario going to play average defense at 2b?


    J.J. Cooper: I think he'll play good enough defensively to stay there as long as he hits. He's a good enough hitter that you'll live with 45 defense. At second, he can knock a lot of balls down and still make the play.



    • How good can Byron Buxton be? Where does he stand at this point among baseball's best? Who is the best comp for him?


    J.J. Cooper: He's the best prospect in baseball, so that's where he stands. The real question is does he end up being a 30+ home run guy or more of a 15-20 home run guy when he's filled out and matured. Everything else projects as well above average.

  2. #2
    Thanks cmb. For an interesting comparison check out the Fort Meyers stats for Buxton, Rosario and Sano. At this point they have a nearly identical number of AB's, and a nearly identical batting average of about 0.330. The rest of the stats differ as you might expect, Sano more power, Buxton more steals, etc.

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    If nothing else, it's been a nice season for the minor leaguers. I wish Ryan had been able to move Perkins for another top prospect but oh well.

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    Can't wait to see these guys up here....I think on Fangraphs today there were a couple of questions from a mike wants wins and one other Twins fan......

    "no" was the answer to moving Hicks to RH only for now
    and he did not think Buxton would be up next year
    Lighten up Francis....

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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    If nothing else, it's been a nice season for the minor leaguers. I wish Ryan had been able to move Perkins for another top prospect but oh well.
    I think the front office working on "getting" how the "sell high" notion works should be Priority #1 on their offseason "Master Rebuild Plan" to-do list.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    I think the front office working on "getting" how the "sell high" notion works should be Priority #1 on their offseason "Master Rebuild Plan" to-do list.
    I think Ryan's done pretty well on that over the years. Span and Revere were both traded right before they collapsed. Knoblauch, Buchanon, Keilty, AJ etc were all traded at pretty good times.

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    With two games left in August, Buxton has a .545 on-base percentage for the month, easily the best mark among full-season players.
    While a .545 OBP for August is pretty incredible, I think it's important to note that Buck's SLG for the month is almost as incredible without the long ball as a contributing factor to the metric, it's .519, yielding an OPS in August of .1064, in a "pitcher's league", with pitchers deliberately pitching around him, and in his first "full season" baseball. Yep, pretty incredible. Watch for him to exceed expectations in the AFL.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    I think Ryan's done pretty well on that over the years. Span and Revere were both traded right before they collapsed. Knoblauch, Buchanon, Keilty, AJ etc were all traded at pretty good times.
    I don't think Revere collapsed at all, he definitely doesn't qualify as a "sell high" example. From May 1 until his injury, he was among the top 5-10 hitters in every offensive category except power, with the 2nd most hits of anyone in baseball. And Span, after his very slow start, with a July/August slash of .292BA/.750OPS is actually producing above his career slash of .282BA/.737OPS, and is cost controlled to 2016. IMHO, these trades weren't made with recognition of, and respect to, selling high, but simply of necessity to improve the club with the only desirable assets available.

    The others you mentioned are really ancient history, especially Knoblach, and he of course, demanded the trade,- and AJ also doesn't really qualify as a "Sell High" transaction, as his best years came after the trade (still Ryan's top trade overall, on that I'm sure we both agree!).

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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    I think Ryan's done pretty well on that over the years. Span and Revere were both traded right before they collapsed. Knoblauch, Buchanon, Keilty, AJ etc were all traded at pretty good times.
    You realize Revere was hitting .347 from the start of May until he got hurt, after his dreadful April, right? (Including .388 in July). Just had to point out he didn't "collapse." He actually would have been extremely valuable to the Twins this year, considering how badly Hicks and Worley flamed out. I'd call that a terrible miss on a trade by Ryan so far, not a win.
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    While a .545 OBP for August is pretty incredible, I think it's important to note that Buck's SLG for the month is almost as incredible without the long ball as a contributing factor to the metric, it's .519, yielding an OPS in August of .1064, in a "pitcher's league", with pitchers deliberately pitching around him, and in his first "full season" baseball. Yep, pretty incredible. Watch for him to exceed expectations in the AFL.
    I would have expected Buxton's slugging be considerably higher than .519 for the month while batting .418, just saying.

    While the overall line is very impressive, that slugging % is very misleading for his actual "power" output, as he's only got 5 XBH's for the month, and no home runs. Also has only 4 RBI in 24 August games, and that's while he's been batting in the 3-spot quite a bit.
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    I don't think Revere collapsed at all, he definitely doesn't qualify as a "sell high" example. From May 1 until his injury, he was among the top 5-10 hitters in every offensive category except power, with the 2nd most hits of anyone in baseball. And Span, after his very slow start, with a July/August slash of .292BA/.750OPS is actually producing above his career slash of .282BA/.737OPS, and is cost controlled to 2016. IMHO, these trades weren't made with recognition of, and respect to, selling high, but simply of necessity to improve the club with the only desirable assets available.

    The others you mentioned are really ancient history, especially Knoblach, and he of course, demanded the trade,- and AJ also doesn't really qualify as a "Sell High" transaction, as his best years came after the trade (still Ryan's top trade overall, on that I'm sure we both agree!).
    Well, Ryan retired in 07 so most of his trades are ancient history. Seems rough to criticize him for not being able to trade a player at the height of their value and then ignore the time periods where Ryan was actually able to do just that. Instead of getting into an argument can we agree that both Span and Revere's trade value today is less than what it was when Ryan actually traded them?

    AJ's best years were with the Twins by most measurements. He was our primary catcher for 3 years and all 3 of those years are in his top 6 WAR seasons. His HR numbers certainly helped playing in Chi but his OPS+ for his years in MN were significantly better as well He certainly had a long career after we traded him.

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    Jeez, even BA is now calling him Alex "Meyers"?
    AAAAAAAAAAAAAAARGH. (I'm not quite sure why this bothers me so much.)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Brooks View Post
    Jeez, even BA is now calling him Alex "Meyers"?
    AAAAAAAAAAAAAAARGH. (I'm not quite sure why this bothers me so much.)
    Get used to a lot of Mays and Meyers (Myers) mis-usages over the next few years.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Steve Lein View Post
    I would have expected Buxton's slugging be considerably higher than .519 for the month while batting .418, just saying.

    While the overall line is very impressive, that slugging % is very misleading for his actual "power" output, as he's only got 5 XBH's for the month, and no home runs. Also has only 4 RBI in 24 August games, and that's while he's been batting in the 3-spot quite a bit.
    I agree that his XBH output is down somewhat disturbingly, but his Aug. SLG is still his 2nd best month of the 2013 season when you conflate his June A/A+ stats. I would attribute his low power and RBI output due in part to the FSL pitchers being extremely cautious in their approach to Buck, plus the 2 guys batting above him in August have regularly had pretty awful stats in terms of OBP, and the pretty legit reason given by the expert in the article for fatigue kicking in, what with all of the doubleheaders and that it's his first full season of ball.

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    Buxton has had a longer season than what he is used to in the past. Anyone know what the point of him going to the AFL? Seems like he could use a rest.

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    Quote Originally Posted by orangevening View Post
    Buxton has had a longer season than what he is used to in the past. Anyone know what the point of him going to the AFL? Seems like he could use a rest.
    Maybe for mere mortals like us. But the normally very conservative Twins have publicly said they were convinced and that Buck was eagerly ready for the challenge- they specifically said they felt he was ready to take on AA-equivalent pitching- and no mention of lingering injuries or fatigue. I'm guessing they came to that conclusion in talks with both Buck and 'all-clears' from both the coaching and training staff at Ft Myers. There's a reason he's already renown as a focused and dedicated hard-worker.

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    I know it sounds crazy, but I think Buxton could have even had a better year! His only lull during the season corresponded to ~15-20 games after fouling a ball off his foot and losing his big toenail! That sounds really painful to a mere mortal like myself, but Buck still managed an OPS of ~.750 as the only 19 year old in high-A! I wonder if he has ever met AP?

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    Buxton is a machine. He will be fine.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TRex View Post
    I know it sounds crazy, but I think Buxton could have even had a better year! His only lull during the season corresponded to ~15-20 games after fouling a ball off his foot and losing his big toenail! That sounds really painful to a mere mortal like myself, but Buck still managed an OPS of ~.750 as the only 19 year old in high-A! I wonder if he has ever met AP?
    That's actually a pretty good comparison. Made me laugh.

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