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Thread: Article: Eddie Rosario as a Trade Chip

  1. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by Winston Smith View Post
    It makes sense to figure out what teams need and second baseman and do they have excess pitching.

    An example the Braves have Dan Uggla (.8), slow, poor fielder, getting kind of old hits homeruns.
    So they want to upgrade and think Dozier (2.5) is the guy. What do they have that matches up war wise with Dozier?
    Julio Teheran (2.2) is close. Does anyone think the Braves make that trade?

    Anyone else have an example that might work?
    Your example illustrates why WAR can lead you down a blind alley. A 22 year old potential future Ace for a Johnny-come-lately to the majors, 26-year-old who may, or may not, be a one-year anomaly? I'd pull the trigger if I was TR, in a heartbeat. I don't think the Braves would have this one as their first option to upgrade 2B. How about the Orioles? They have had success with former Twins and need someone at second. They have the pitching prospects and the less-tantalizing Chris Tillman.

  2. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    James Shields is not Kershaw or King Felix, but he is a stud. In terms of WAR, he's ranked as the #15 Starting Pitcher this year, #12 SP for 2012-13, #11 SP for 2011-13.

    That's an Ace, and as I said on the first page, I agree with you, it would take a significant package to get a pitcher similarly ranked (like Price).
    fWAR the past 4 seasons (2010 - 2013, AVG):
    James Shields
    1.7 4.5 3.9 4.0, 3.53

    Mat Latos
    4.0 3.2 2.9 4.4, 3.63

    Gio Gonzalez
    3.0 3.3 5.0 2.6, 3.46

    Shields cost a top-5 prospect + some odds and ends.
    Latos and Gonzalez both cost one prospect in the 30s, one prospect in the 50s + some odds and ends.

    Rosario + someone good (Arcia this year, maybe Berrios next year) should be in the ballpark for a really solid pitcher with 3+ years of team control left. I feel that the Royals way overpaid for Shields relative to other recent trades.

  3. #83
    Quote Originally Posted by Nick Nelson View Post
    All these "wait another year" responses seem to overlook a (not unlikely) possible scenario: What if Rosario struggles in Triple-A next year and Dozier regresses big-time in the majors? Then we're all looking back at how the Twins failed once again to strike when the iron was hot.

    I understand that it's not ideal to move Rosario, knowing that he may turn out to be a great player and Dozier may turn back into a pumpkin, but when you're desperate to add pitching risks need to be taken. The Twins can live with substandard production at second base; they can't continue to live with a completely hopeless starting rotation.

    I also would strongly disagree with the notion that Dozier has more trade value than Rosario at this point. Rosario is an above-average hitter in Double-A at age 21, whereas Dozier was a non-prospect who didn't become a full-timer in the majors until 26 and has a .684 career OPS. Other teams would likely be just as wary of a step backwards as we are.
    +1000. This is one of the things that has really hurt this Twins team. People can blame Gardy, blame Mauer's injuries, bad/lack of free agent signings. But, I think the Twins, and particularly Terry Ryan's, reluctance to make trades when someone is performing well has been detrimental to this team's overall future. You never know if a promising vet is going to get hurt and never be the same, and prospects have a way of not quite living up to the hype in most cases. Sell high and fleece some desperate team who thinks they need that extra piece to win now.

  4. #84
    A thought. Dozier and package (Harrison, Santanta) for Starlin Castro. Take a shot. They have Baez coming up, he had a down year. Sell low.

  5. #85
    And by prospects not living up to the hype in "most cases", I think we can safely assume that Sano and Buxton will not be "most cases".

  6. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by markos View Post
    fWAR the past 4 seasons (2010 - 2013, AVG):
    James Shields
    1.7 4.5 3.9 4.0, 3.53

    Mat Latos
    4.0 3.2 2.9 4.4, 3.63

    Gio Gonzalez
    3.0 3.3 5.0 2.6, 3.46

    Shields cost a top-5 prospect + some odds and ends.
    Latos and Gonzalez both cost one prospect in the 30s, one prospect in the 50s + some odds and ends.

    Rosario + someone good (Arcia this year, maybe Berrios next year) should be in the ballpark for a really solid pitcher with 3+ years of team control left. I feel that the Royals way overpaid for Shields relative to other recent trades.
    2011-2013 WAR

    Shields 12.4
    Gonzales 10.9
    Latos 10.6

    2011-13 Total Innings Pitched/Innings per Start

    Shields 684.2/7.1
    Gonzales 578/6.1
    Latos 594/6.1


    This is the tangible difference that Shields brought to the table, plus, it has been widely reported that he has brought a strong leadership trait to the Royals starting corps that was severely lacking in the past (ie, he set accountability standards and placed a team goal in place for the Royals to get 1000 innings from the starters). But I do agree the Royals overpaid, especially for 2 years of team control. I think Rosario plus Arcia wouldn't be nearly enough to get Price for 2 years of team control.

  7. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick Nelson View Post
    Lots of people suggesting that the Twins should try moving Dozier back to SS. If they had any thoughts of doing so, don't you think he might have played at least one single inning there this year? I don't see it.
    I haven't suggested the Twins will do this, I've just suggested they should do this. What else are they going to do with these throw away games if they aren't going to go the experiment/experience route?

    I doubt they move him, but even if they don't try it this year, I don't think it's out of the questiong considering the last couple of years the Twins called up Colabello and Parmelee and plugged them right into RF despite the fact they hadn't played the position the entire season in AAA.

  8. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cc-twinsball View Post
    A thought. Dozier and package (Harrison, Santanta) for Starlin Castro. Take a shot. They have Baez coming up, he had a down year. Sell low.
    I have no idea what Theo would want besides the world, but I agree we should take a shot at Castro.

  9. #89
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    Trading a top prospect for an established pitcher would make sense if the Twins were a .500 ballclub and ready to compete next season. They aren't. They can't afford to give up more talent than they get. They aren't close enough to the playoffs for it to make sense.

  10. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    2011-2013 WAR

    Shields 12.4
    Gonzales 10.9
    Latos 10.6

    2011-13 Total Innings Pitched/Innings per Start

    Shields 684.2/7.1
    Gonzales 578/6.1
    Latos 594/6.1


    This is the tangible difference that Shields brought to the table, plus, it has been widely reported that he has brought a strong leadership trait to the Royals starting corps that was severely lacking in the past (ie, he set accountability standards and placed a team goal in place for the Royals to get 1000 innings from the starters). But I do agree the Royals overpaid, especially for 2 years of team control. I think Rosario plus Arcia wouldn't be nearly enough to get Price for 2 years of team control.
    But you also have to consider the Reds bought Latos for four more years from a 23-year-old still under arbitration and the Nats bought Gonzalez for three more years from a 25-year-old who was willing to negotiate an extenstion with possilbities through 2018.

    Shields was 30 and had only two years under contract, in my opinion Latos and Gonzalez should be more valuable.

  11. #91
    Please ban me! All-Star stringer bell's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    I haven't suggested the Twins will do this, I've just suggested they should do this. What else are they going to do with these throw away games if they aren't going to go the experiment/experience route?

    I doubt they move him, but even if they don't try it this year, I don't think it's out of the questiong considering the last couple of years the Twins called up Colabello and Parmelee and plugged them right into RF despite the fact they hadn't played the position the entire season in AAA.
    The Twins seem to put a premium on defense in the middle infield. Two guys, with pretty good hitting potential, Todd Walker and Trevor Plouffe were moved in large part because of their defense. With the parade of miscast, declining or just plain bad defensive outfielders--Delmon, Revere, the Hammer, Colabello, Doumit, Cuddy--it is safe to assume that defense isn't quite as big a component for corner outfielders.

  12. #92
    I don't think Theo would want the world. He's not his kind of player anyways. I think a reasonable package I think would be; Brian Dozier, Travis Harrison, and Dalton Hicks. We take on Starlin Castros contract, and I think we could swing a deal.

  13. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cc-twinsball View Post
    A thought. Dozier and package (Harrison, Santanta) for Starlin Castro. Take a shot. They have Baez coming up, he had a down year. Sell low.
    The problem with a team with a 2B surplus trading with a team with a SS surplus is that the team with all the SS could easily move one of them to 2B, which is likely what the Cubs will do with one of their many SS prospects. They've also got #2 overall pick Kris Bryant for 3B, I'm thinking the rebuilding Cubs would much prefer their young middle infielders to Dozier and the Twins infielders.

  14. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by mattkummer View Post
    And by prospects not living up to the hype in "most cases", I think we can safely assume that Sano and Buxton will not be "most cases".
    Delmon Young and Jesus Montero were "can't miss" too. Ask the Royals about "can't miss prospects". The question that should be asked is if we have a contingency plan in case Sano turns out to be Adam Dunn and not Miguel Cabrera and Buxton ends up being an Elsbury and not a Trout.

    You can never have too much talent. Trading one talented player for several is a key to sustainable Big League success. If you want one player, buy them in free agency... then trade him.

  15. #95
    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    The problem with a team with a 2B surplus trading with a team with a SS surplus is that the team with all the SS could easily move one of them to 2B, which is likely what the Cubs will do with one of their many SS prospects. They've also got #2 overall pick Kris Bryant for 3B, I'm thinking the rebuilding Cubs would much prefer their young middle infielders to Dozier and the Twins infielders.
    I'm just not sure. Junior Lake will play second I'm assuming, Javier Baez will play short, and Kris Bryant at third. Then at first there's Anthony Rizzo. I think Castro is odd man out. They might just take on Dozier to be a fill in for a year or so for Lake or Baez. Plus they get prospects. New deal for Castro would be; Brian Dozier, Aaron Hicks, And Travis Harrison (who could move to corner outfield position).

  16. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by stringer bell View Post
    The Twins seem to put a premium on defense in the middle infield. Two guys, with pretty good hitting potential, Todd Walker and Trevor Plouffe were moved in large part because of their defense. With the parade of miscast, declining or just plain bad defensive outfielders--Delmon, Revere, the Hammer, Colabello, Doumit, Cuddy--it is safe to assume that defense isn't quite as big a component for corner outfielders.
    That's true, though they did try the defensively challenged Cuddyer at 2B more than once. They also went with the rangeless and aging Orlando's at 2B in consecutive years and traded superiour JJ Hardy to take a flier on a Japanese SS they knew next to nothing about.

    I don't disagree with you, but I think they have overlooked middle infield defense for varoius reasons in the past With the struggle of the offense, I wouldn't be surprised if they did it again to get as many weapons as possible in the lineup some time next year.

    Also, Dozier was a pretty bad SS last year, but he was pretty good in the minors. If the Twins beleive that 2012 was the exception offensively, I think should at least entertain the idea that it was the exception defensively also.

  17. #97
    Please ban me! All-Star stringer bell's Avatar
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    Even if the younger player turns out to be the better player, I don't think it is necessarily a mistake to move Rosario. If the projections are close for the Twins, they will have one long term veteran (Mauer) surrounded by players who either made their debut this year or will become big leaguers in 2014 or 2015. I think it might be a good idea to have a mix of ages and having a few older players around. Dozier is 26, Mauer is 30 and Rosario, Sano, Hicks, Buxton, and Arcia are 23 or younger. Keeping or acquiring a "middle-aged" player or two might provide a better, more stable, roster. I think the whole issue here is projection. The Twins need to "know" what Dozier is--the near All-Star he's been for three months or a replacement level player--and also what Rosario will be. Is he a .300 hitter with decent power and a good glove or is he less? Teams looking at acquiring either of Dozier or Rosario also need to project how good they will be and how soon. The Twins should have learned a couple things: 1) If you wait too long, you may end up with much less and 2) you have to give up talent to get talent when you make a trade.

  18. #98
    I hope they don't even consider trading Rosario. I personally think Dozier is not as good as he has been the past couple months and is likely somewhere in between what he was last year and this year, which is average at best. I do like Dozier, but lets not forget how good and valuable Rosario is and can be. Even right now, Dozier's OPS+ is just over 100, which Rosario should easily be able to top 2-3 years from now.

    I say keep Rosario, move Dozier to shortstop, (his bat, if it produces more like 2013 than 2012, would be more valuable there anyway and I think his defense would be good enough), and enjoy the possibilities that an infield of Sano, Dozier, Rosario, Mauer and Pinto could produce starting in 2015. Along with an outfield of Buxton, Hicks and Arcia of course. And if moving Dozier does not work? Trade HIM and start either a stopgap at shortstop, or someone like Beresford/Florimon who could bat 9th in a lineup that could be very dangerous very soon.

    We have other valuable trade chips to shop, such as Harrison, Santana, Goodrum, Polanco, Walker etc. who can be used as trade bait for better pitching. Rosario does not belong on this list.

  19. #99
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cc-twinsball View Post
    I'm just not sure. Junior Lake will play second I'm assuming, Javier Baez will play short, and Kris Bryant at third. Then at first there's Anthony Rizzo. I think Castro is odd man out. They might just take on Dozier to be a fill in for a year or so for Lake or Baez. Plus they get prospects. New deal for Castro would be; Brian Dozier, Aaron Hicks, And Travis Harrison (who could move to corner outfield position).
    Castro is 23, with 6 years plus a club option for roughly 58M. I have no idea what it would take, but I think we should consider pursuing it. King Theo vs. Ryan would be worthy of pay for view.

  20. #100
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    I'd rather have Rosario playing outfield than either Willingham or Arcia. If you're going to trade one of our blue-chip prospects, trade Arcia. The man is a strikeout machine.

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