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Thread: Vegas Odds on Twins retaining Gardy next year

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    Vegas Odds on Twins retaining Gardy next year

    Alright so we all know how gambling works. You put a dollar on a prop bet and the return varies depending on odds. If you put $1 dollar on Gardy to be the manager for next year... what would the payout be??

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    Senior Member Double-A COtwin's Avatar
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    Ha Jokes on you. I would put down money and hope to lose it.

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    $1. I think it's 50-50 at this point.

  4. #4
    +220 for you if he stays.

    I'm getting vibes that he's done. I'll take the -100, in other words I'd bet $220 to win $100.

    ----- all gaming here hypothetical, of course!
    Last edited by Hosken Bombo Disco; 09-20-2013 at 05:54 PM.

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    My guess is that Terry Ryan will only offer a 1 YR deal to Gardy this off season. Gardy will want nothing to do being a lame duck manager with no security and probably work for ESPN or FOXSPORTS1 until he wants to find another manager job if he wants to manage anymore...

  6. #6
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer 70charger's Avatar
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    -110 Gardy stays.

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    PRAVDA had another article on him today--mostly rehashed what they reported earlier. I'm guessing that there is a tug-of-war in the FO between keeping/sacking him. I think if Ryan yields it signifies that a real change is needed in the Twins. One domino fell last season, a second (Gardenhire and his buddies), and things could "get out of hand".

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kwak View Post
    PRAVDA had another article on him today--mostly rehashed what they reported earlier. I'm guessing that there is a tug-of-war in the FO between keeping/sacking him. I think if Ryan yields it signifies that a real change is needed in the Twins. One domino fell last season, a second (Gardenhire and his buddies), and things could "get out of hand".
    Ryan will remain in charge until the Twins are back on top and he can joyfully return to semi-retirement. It's no real secret what happens when an organization panics 22 months into the rebuilding process. I really question how important it is, if Gardy stays or leaves. Maybe it's time to throw the disaffected a bone. If anyone expects there is going to be real change in The Twins Way, they will be very disappointed. But, that doesn't mean there won't be increased spending sometime between now and the winter of 2014/2015.

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    Senior Member All-Star IdahoPilgrim's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by howieramone View Post
    Maybe it's time to throw the disaffected a bone.
    Won't work. There will be about a half hour of rejoicing and then grumbling will resume over who is picked to replace him, whoever it is.

    And the last thing a GM should be doing is allowing public sentiment to affect baseball decisions. Letting him go because it is the right move for the team is one thing (and that may indeed be the right thing to do); letting him go for any other reason is a mistake.

    And I have no clue what the reference to Pravda in this thread means.

  10. #10
    Please ban me! All-Star stringer bell's Avatar
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    I suspect the Pravda reference was referring to the strib (aka the Red Star) due to its perceived political leanings.

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    Senior Member Triple-A gil4's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by stringer bell View Post
    I suspect the Pravda reference was referring to the strib (aka the Red Star) due to its perceived political leanings.
    That was my guess too. I'm sure the real Pravda would be insulted by the comparison.

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer 70charger's Avatar
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    Come on guys. Everyone knows the only team Pravda writes about is the Reds.

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    Super Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by IdahoPilgrim View Post
    Won't work. There will be about a half hour of rejoicing and then grumbling will resume over who is picked to replace him, whoever it is.

    And the last thing a GM should be doing is allowing public sentiment to affect baseball decisions. Letting him go because it is the right move for the team is one thing (and that may indeed be the right thing to do); letting him go for any other reason is a mistake.

    And I have no clue what the reference to Pravda in this thread means.
    If he's replaced with someone from within the organization, who is unlikely to be substantively different, then yeah...the grumbling will probably resume rather quickly. Perhaps with some justification. If he's replaced with someone from outside, someone who is likely to be quite a bit different, then I think the grumbling will go away for at least a while, till people have a chance to evaluate. //coughdavemartinezcough//

    i also think an organization that depends 100% on public sentiment for income probably has to pay more attention to that sentiment in making decisions than most other businesses.
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

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    Owner All-Star John Bonnes's Avatar
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    So I think the way to look at the Vegas odds of this are this way....

    At what odds would you bet he stays?
    At what odds would you bet he's gone?

    For instance, I'd certainly bet 1:1 that he stays, because I think that's more likely. But at what odds would I bet he's gone? I think I would bet that he's gone if I get 3:1 odds.

    So to me, that says the appropriate odds (for me) are 2:1 - Bet one that he's gone and get two if you're right. Or bet two the he stays and get one if you're right. At that number, I don't know which way I would bet, which is the whole point.

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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    If he's replaced with someone from within the organization, who is unlikely to be substantively different, then yeah...the grumbling will probably resume rather quickly. Perhaps with some justification. If he's replaced with someone from outside, someone who is likely to be quite a bit different, then I think the grumbling will go away for at least a while, till people have a chance to evaluate. //coughdavemartinezcough//

    i also think an organization that depends 100% on public sentiment for income probably has to pay more attention to that sentiment in making decisions than most other businesses.
    Yeah, if they are going to replace him with someone from within the organization, then it's pointless to even fire him.
    It's the philosophy that is outdated and flawed. Simply bumping up the next guy in line changes absolutely nothing, IMO.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Brooks View Post
    Simply bumping up the next guy in line changes absolutely nothing, IMO.

    Which is likely the plan. The "company" replacement will have much less status to challenge authority than Gardenhire.

    I think, they'll game Gardy with a 1-yr deal, but all of his "buddies" on his staff get replaced. That scenario will cause Gardy to decline their generous offer.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Kwak View Post
    I think, they'll game Gardy with a 1-yr deal, but all of his "buddies" on his staff get replaced. That scenario will cause Gardy to decline their generous offer.
    I think you are on to something. Gardy has always said Anderson will be his pitching coach but maybe the Front Office tells Gardy he is more than welcome to manage another year, but without Anderson and with whole new coaches of the FO's choosing, to include Molitor (who Gardy has always seen as a threat) and a couple of Latin coaches (who by their absence apparently make Gardy uncomfortable). I think that's an offer Gardy can't refuse/accept.. quite a state we are in, with the field manager driving the direction of the whole organization.

    This would be a natural progression from last year's coach firings. I've gotta believe the status quo this year is untenable.

  18. #18
    If he, or Rick Anderson for that matter, are still here next year, I think the better question is: What are the odds anyone besides the players' mothers will notice when opening day rolls around next spring? The status quo is unwatchable at this point.

  19. #19
    I'm not sure why the Twins need to bother with replacing the coaches with the hope Gardenhire leaves. If they want him back than give him a contract if they don't than move on.

  20. #20
    Super Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by John Bonnes View Post
    So I think the way to look at the Vegas odds of this are this way....

    At what odds would you bet he stays?
    At what odds would you bet he's gone?

    For instance, I'd certainly bet 1:1 that he stays, because I think that's more likely. But at what odds would I bet he's gone? I think I would bet that he's gone if I get 3:1 odds.

    So to me, that says the appropriate odds (for me) are 2:1 - Bet one that he's gone and get two if you're right. Or bet two the he stays and get one if you're right. At that number, I don't know which way I would bet, which is the whole point.
    That's some pretty fair amateur handicapping, I think. At 2:1, it's a tough call but I think I'd try to double my money and go with he's gone. It's a close call though.
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

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