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Thread: Is now the time?

  1. #21
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    I'd like to see the Twins ripoff the Pirates formula. Sign a defensive-oriented pitch framer to catch, then sign or trade for SPs whose ERAs are out of whack from their xFIPs.

    Among the FAs whose ERA/xFIPs in 2013 were out of whack:

    Name Age IP ERA xFIP ERA-xFIP
    Edinson Volquez 29 165.1 5.77 4.07 1.7
    Roberto Hernandez 32 151 4.89 3.56 1.33
    Dan Haren 32 162.2 4.87 3.68 1.19
    Aaron Harang 35 137.1 5.57 4.43 1.14
    Joe Saunders 32 183 5.26 4.23 1.03
    Tim Lincecum 29 190.2 4.44 3.56 0.88
    Scott Kazmir 29 152 4.14 3.43 0.71
    Phil Hughes 27 143.2 5.07 4.37 0.7
    A.J. Burnett 36 183 3.39 2.92 0.47
    Paul Maholm 31 146 4.44 3.97 0.47
    Tim Hudson 37 131.1 3.97 3.56 0.41
    Matt Garza 29 150 3.9 3.71 0.19

    Plenty of talent in that group IMO
    Last edited by Willihammer; 09-25-2013 at 07:56 PM.

  2. #22
    Senior Member All-Star LaBombo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    They're names but Johnson, Lincecum and Haren were pretty bad this year. They could have bounce back seasons and some one will try but a 2yr deal for Haren right now would be reckless.
    All of them posted xFIPs below 3.7, or about three quarters of a run better than the average of the rotation the Twins cobbled together. And Lincecum has more innings pitched than any Twins starter. There's a pretty good chance those three will be better again next year than anything the Twins have now.

    And it's hard to see how a two year deal for one of those guys would be reckless, with a ton of money coming off the books and the Ryan not even spending to budget before it does.

  3. #23
    Senior Member All-Star
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    I'd like to see the Twins ripoff the Pirates formula. Sign a defensive-oriented pitch framer to catch, then sign or trade for SPs whose ERAs are out of whack from their xFIPs.

    Among the FAs whose ERA/xFIPs in 2013 were out of whack:

    Name Age IP ERA xFIP ERA-xFIP
    Edinson Volquez 29 165.1 5.77 4.07 1.7
    Roberto Hernandez 32 151 4.89 3.56 1.33
    Dan Haren 32 162.2 4.87 3.68 1.19
    Aaron Harang 35 137.1 5.57 4.43 1.14
    Joe Saunders 32 183 5.26 4.23 1.03
    Tim Lincecum 29 190.2 4.44 3.56 0.88
    Scott Kazmir 29 152 4.14 3.43 0.71
    Phil Hughes 27 143.2 5.07 4.37 0.7
    A.J. Burnett 36 183 3.39 2.92 0.47
    Paul Maholm 31 146 4.44 3.97 0.47
    Tim Hudson 37 131.1 3.97 3.56 0.41
    Matt Garza 29 150 3.9 3.71 0.19

    Plenty of talent in that group IMO
    You can add Pelfrey to that group!

  4. #24
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    You can add Pelfrey to that group!
    Sure, if you're ok with guys who posted greater than 4.5 xFIPs. I cutoff the list at 4.5 and 20 starts, thinking (hoping) we might shoot a little higher than that this offseason.

  5. #25
    Senior Member All-Star
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    Quote Originally Posted by LaBombo View Post
    All of them posted xFIPs below 3.7, or about three quarters of a run better than the average of the rotation the Twins cobbled together. And Lincecum has more innings pitched than any Twins starter. There's a pretty good chance those three will be better again next year than anything the Twins have now.

    And it's hard to see how a two year deal for one of those guys would be reckless, with a ton of money coming off the books and the Ryan not even spending to budget before it does.
    If you trust xfip. bWAR all had them with negative numbers but I believe that uses RA instead of fip, like fWAR. -shrug- And sure, currently a two year deal won't hurt the Twins even if it's all flushed down the drain (doesn't mean you should do it).

    If the Twins take a chance on Lincecum, I'd probably be excited b/c of his name. And Haren's been someone I wished the Twins had targeted for years. So if we do something like that (or bring back Santana) I certainly won't complain. I think there's risk but there was risk with Pelfrey and Harden this year. I was trying to point out that the FA SP wasn't great but it does have some potential.

    (I'm leery of Johnson b/c of his injury history).

  6. #26
    Senior Member All-Star
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    Sure, if you're ok with guys who posted greater than 4.5 xFIPs. I cutoff the list at 4.5 and 20 starts, thinking (hoping) we might shoot a little higher than that this offseason.
    I don't think xFIP is all that relevant for TF pitchers, though, is it? Might as well just use fip.

  7. #27
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    I don't think xFIP is all that relevant for TF pitchers, though, is it? Might as well just use fip.
    Maybe, yeah. I'd just as soon acquire guys reasonably expected to succeed on the road too.

  8. #28
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer gil4's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheMind07 View Post
    We did that in the 2000's and "competing" got pretty old.
    I rather enjoyed the 2000's. This "not competing" thing got old a whole lot faster. It's hard to predict when a couple of guys are going to have big years and your pitchers are going to stay healthy. When that happens I'd rather not have Clete Thomas and Pedro Florimon running out there every day to screw the whole thing up.

  9. #29
    Junior Member Rookie TheMind07's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LaBombo View Post
    Two of the best pitching prospects in the organization were acquired by trading away useful, non-All Star players. Had the team cashed in Willingham in the offseason as well, that number would likely be three.
    Oh I absolutely agree. I want them to trade all of the old and let the young guys play a la the Houston Route. I don't think the fans want to watch these older journeyman play anymore (I know I don't). It's frustrating that the Team fails to cash in on players when their value is the highest. Albeit we don't know exactly what the offers are, it would be nice to get anything, if even just salary relief.

  10. #30
    Junior Member Rookie TheMind07's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gil4 View Post
    I rather enjoyed the 2000's. This "not competing" thing got old a whole lot faster. It's hard to predict when a couple of guys are going to have big years and your pitchers are going to stay healthy. When that happens I'd rather not have Clete Thomas and Pedro Florimon running out there every day to screw the whole thing up.
    Sure the regular seasons were fun, but then the postseason would come and it was just embarrassing. it got old just being satisfied with winning the division then just knowing we'd get swept in the first round. Sure there are memories we'll never forget and those teams brought Twins Baseball back, however I want to contend for WS championships and outside of the 06' Team (even then Boof Bonser was our Game 2 starter) was deep enough to do any damage in the postseason. Sure it was a lot more fun than watching these teams the last 3 years, but in my mind this is paving the way for future success. Might be wishful thinking.

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