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  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Cleveland and Boston proved they could shorten the rebuild, not extend it.
    Cleveland suffered through 4 straight losing seasons before this year. Boston didn't really rebuild. They had one losing season with an insane manager and a ton of injuries. They also have significant financial resources the Twins don't.

    Teams that have extended rebuilds the last decade or so - Pirates, Royals, Rays, Rangers, etc - have often changed GMs and FO turnover that makes rebuilds harder.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by IdahoPilgrim View Post
    I'm curious why you say this. Granted, it might not be fun to watch for a while, but I highly doubt they'll go under.
    "it might not be fun to watch for a while"

    Why should fans (who publicly financed a new ballpark) have to settle for this bromide? " A while" has already been 3 years, and there is already a general consensus, amongst both the pessimists and the optimists, that 2014 is already lost, making it year 4 of no fun. In the 21st Century of shorter attention spans, weak economy, increasing alternatives for the entertainment dollar and the general fickle nature of the casual fans and their relationship with a ballpark whose "new car smell" has an ever-shortening shelf life.... and most importantly, a miserly and highly disinterested and disengaged ownership that already previously has threatened to either move or kill the franchise, there have to be doubts about the long-term viability of the franchise in Minnesota if they maintain the status quo.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    "it might not be fun to watch for a while"

    Why should fans (who publicly financed a new ballpark) have to settle for this bromide? " A while" has already been 3 years, and there is already a general consensus, amongst both the pessimists and the optimists, that 2014 is already lost, making it year 4 of no fun. In the 21st Century of shorter attention spans, weak economy, increasing alternatives for the entertainment dollar and the general fickle nature of the casual fans and their relationship with a ballpark whose "new car smell" has an ever-shortening shelf life.... and most importantly, a miserly and highly disinterested and disengaged ownership that already previously has threatened to either move or kill the franchise, there have to be doubts about the long-term viability of the franchise in Minnesota if they maintain the status quo.
    Sure, if baseball's economics change drastically long term bad teams might fold or move but it's really, really unlikely.

    That doesn't mean we shouldn't bitch and moan about bad teams but I wouldn't worry about not having a team here in 2025.

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    Cleveland suffered through 4 straight losing seasons before this year. Boston didn't really rebuild. They had one losing season with an insane manager and a ton of injuries. They also have significant financial resources the Twins don't.

    Teams that have extended rebuilds the last decade or so - Pirates, Royals, Rays, Rangers, etc - have often changed GMs and FO turnover that makes rebuilds harder.
    4 years in the wilderness for Cleveland, much like the Twins are about to experience, and it cost them much of their loyal fan base in the process. New management and ownership brought about immediate improvements and philosophical changes for the Indians. The Red Sox completely overhauled their roster and approach, as well as boldly correcting their personnel mistakes at the management level. The Sox actually cut their payroll in the process of making their improvements so your finance argument doesn't wash. No one has suggested that the Twins have to have an identical payroll to Boston's, just to make a full commitment to winning, by using all of the resources at their disposal- IOW, to do what ownership said they would do if the new ballpark was built for them. (Remember, the Twins told us in September of 2011 to expect several years of incremental payroll cutting, IOW, raising the "White Flag" was their stated strategy, ala the 1990s, post World Series 1991).
    Last edited by jokin; 09-26-2013 at 01:47 PM.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    Sure, if baseball's economics change drastically long term bad teams might fold or move but it's really, really unlikely.

    That doesn't mean we shouldn't bitch and moan about bad teams but I wouldn't worry about not having a team here in 2025.
    You really think it unlikely that the Pohlad's would sell the team to out-of-town interests in a heartbeat, if it served their interests? There's still plenty of room for a relocated franchise in booming TX, OK, Canada or the Carolinas.

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    4 years in the wilderness for Cleveland, much like the Twins are about to experience, and it cost them much of their loyal fan base in the process. New management and ownership brought about immediate improvements and philosophical changes for the Indians. The Red Sox completely overhauled their roster and approach, as well as boldly correcting their personnel mistakes at the management level. The Sox actually cut their payroll in the process of making their improvements so your finance argument doesn't wash. No one has suggested that the Twins have to have an identical payroll to Boston's, just to make a full commitment to winning use all of the resources at their disposal- IOW, to do what ownership said they would do if the new ballpark was built for them.
    Twins have a more loyal fanbase than Cleveland - we actually out drew them this year. Red Sox dropped some bad contracts but still had significant $$ to throw out and had players returning from injuries. The Twins problems weren't the same.

    IIRC, Cleveland's former GM Shapiro (who had a great run) was promoted to President after the 09 season. Chris Antonetti (who had been Shapiro's second in command) took over. And they've had the same owner since 2000. So not really a change in ownership or new ways of thinking. Just building up from a farm system and trades.
    Last edited by gunnarthor; 09-26-2013 at 01:58 PM. Reason: mixed up gm's name with owners

  7. #27
    Senior Member All-Star IdahoPilgrim's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    "it might not be fun to watch for a while"

    Why should fans (who publicly financed a new ballpark) have to settle for this bromide? " A while" has already been 3 years, and there is already a general consensus, amongst both the pessimists and the optimists, that 2014 is already lost, making it year 4 of no fun. In the 21st Century of shorter attention spans, weak economy, increasing alternatives for the entertainment dollar and the general fickle nature of the casual fans and their relationship with a ballpark whose "new car smell" has an ever-shortening shelf life.... and most importantly, a miserly and highly disinterested and disengaged ownership that already previously has threatened to either move or kill the franchise, there have to be doubts about the long-term viability of the franchise in Minnesota if they maintain the status quo.
    I'm not saying that there are no reasons for fans to be disgruntled, but I find this to be extremely unlikely. You are welcome to disagree with me, but personally I think the case you make is substantially overstated.

    I'll also add one other personal note: My comment about "no fun" was relative compared to a contending club. Personally, I have enjoyed the Twins season and I'm looking forward to next year. I love baseball, and I love Twins baseball. Just like I love playing golf, even though I suck at it. Even a bad day at the ballpark is better than a day in the office.
    Last edited by IdahoPilgrim; 09-26-2013 at 01:56 PM.

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    You really think it unlikely that the Pohlad's would sell the team to out-of-town interests in a heartbeat, if it served their interests? There's still plenty of room for a relocated franchise in booming TX, OK, Canada or the Carolinas.
    Yeah, I hate the Pohlads but if they wanted to sell, they just as likely find a rich owner that would keep the team in MN. And other teams have territorial rights that make moves that much harder to do. So yeah, the Twins will still be in MN in 2025 even if they have losing seasons every year.

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    . Ryan hate is ridiculous. He's a great GM, proven and has already made significant strides forward on the rebuild.
    I don't think ridiculous is right here. Ryan's strengths may no longer be the right ones for this organization. We aren't the mid 90s Twins playing in the dome and this isn't 1992 in stats, analysis, development, and drafting. I haven't seen much in the way of Ryan altering his approach to better succeed in this landscape.

    There are plenty of valid reasons for criticism, even if you still might endorse him staying.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by IdahoPilgrim View Post
    I'm not saying that there are no reasons for fans to be disgruntled, but I find this to be extremely unlikely. You are welcome to disagree with me, but personally I think the case you make is substantially overstated.
    Look no further than Montreal for the possibilities for debacle. A very, very young, exciting and talented club with disinterested ownership and disaffected fanbase. If the Twins don't update their approach and thinking to match 21st Century baseball, even a pipeline of exciting young prospects doesn't guarantee long-term viability in Minnesota, if the ineptitude continues long-term. Does the average informed fan really feel comfortable with the level of commitment to winning of the ownership group? They have historically demonstrated that their interest in the team pretty much extends as far as the projected ROI. When potential contraction, or sale to Charlotte interests offered a possibly higher return on investment, they pursued such options with gusto, implicit blackmail to the fans to pony up in the process- a true "win-win" deal for ownership.

    All of these unnecessary machinations, and all they really need to do to get 3.25M+ in attendance and soaring TV ratings is to expand the TF seating capacity to just over 40,000 and hire a forward-thinking and intrepid and dynamic- yet fiscally prudent- management group that puts a competitive product on the field in 7 years out of 10.

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    Yeah, I hate the Pohlads but if they wanted to sell, they just as likely find a rich owner that would keep the team in MN. And other teams have territorial rights that make moves that much harder to do. So yeah, the Twins will still be in MN in 2025 even if they have losing seasons every year.
    How did those territorial rights go for Baltimore when the Nats moved in?

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by howieramone View Post
    After 22 months of rebuilding, with only 19 months left, your blueprint for success is off with their heads? This is just lazy and a proven way to extend the rebuilding indefinitely. I would really encourage you to read the positive articles the national media is directing toward our tried, true, and proven organization.
    Is this a bit? Terry Ryan has been the GM of the Twins since 1995. Gardenhire has been the Manager since 2002 with Rick Anderson his pitching coach. Lets see how they have done.

    Ryan: 9 losing seasons as a GM (and counting), 6 winning seasons, 4 playoff berths, 1 playoff series win. After an 8 year stretch of competitive baseball (which he was only the GM for 5) the Twins have been a bottom dweller for 3 straight years with no indication of this changing for next year. Tried and true? Maybe 5 years ago you could say that, not today.

    Gardenhire: 8 winning seasons, 4 losing seasons. 6 playoff births, 1 series win. Lost last 6 playoff series, with the last 3 series being swept. You can argue Gardy has been a pretty good manager during the regular season. He has done pretty well with what he has been given, but has bombed in the playoffs... even when he had pretty talented teams. I'm not a huge fan of Gardy, but I also don't think all this losing is on him (the playoffs, however, are).

    Anderson: Looking at combined stats for the pitching staff for his entire career and the Twins are pretty much average in everything. I'm not sure how else to evaluate him as a coach otherwise. His notable trait is not pitching for strikeouts and avoiding walks. Guys with good movement can excel with this approach (like Santana), guys that don't have much stuff can struggle (like Hendriks).
    Do or do not. There is no try.

  13. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    How did those territorial rights go for Baltimore when the Nats moved in?
    Not too well, they are still fighting over things today.
    Orioles and Nationals have complicated relationship when it comes to marketing - Baltimore Sun
    Baseball Prospectus | Buying Off the Orioles

    MLB wouldn't want a team leaving a nice market like the TC to something like Tulsa. It's just not a realistic concern.

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Badsmerf View Post
    Is this a bit? Terry Ryan has been the GM of the Twins since 1995. Gardenhire has been the Manager since 2002 with Rick Anderson his pitching coach. Lets see how they have done.
    The problem with a quick look like this is it doesn't really tell the whole story. The mid and late 90s Twins had significant payroll problems that factored deeply into their problems. And I think it's also fair to say that people - GMs, managers, lawyers etc - improve. So if Terry Ryan was or wasn't a good GM in 1996 isn't particularly relevant to whether or not he's a good GM now. We have seen that Ryan was the only small market GM in baseball that was able to change his teams nucleus of players on the fly and still make the playoffs. That's pretty impressive. And since he's come back he's made a number of strong trades so it doesn't seem like he's a confused old grandfather walking around.

    He has shown the ability to rebuild a losing team and keep it good on a small budget. He's still doing things like that.

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    Twins have a more loyal fanbase than Cleveland - we actually out drew them this year. Red Sox dropped some bad contracts but still had significant $$ to throw out and had players returning from injuries. The Twins problems weren't the same.

    IIRC, Cleveland's former GM Shapiro (who had a great run) was promoted to President after the 09 season. Chris Antonetti (who had been Shapiro's second in command) took over. And they've had the same owner since 2000. So not really a change in ownership or new ways of thinking. Just building up from a farm system and trades.
    You left out the fact that Shapiro lured Terry Francona to Cleveland. And he linked his contract with Francona's. If one goes, they all go, giving him huge new leverage in changing the dyanamic and commitment to winning now in Cleveland. This was reflected in the vast retooling of the team over the winter, as documented by Seth Stohs in his article from this morning.

    Here's a good quote from what actually went down last October:

    Why would the Dolan family agree to include such a provision -- let's call it the "Three Musketeers Clause" -- in Francona's contract?
    Because he's Terry Francona!
    He's the embodiment of everything the Indians, and their managers haven't been for most of the last 10 years: big winners, big spenders, big names.

    At this particular juncture in both their histories, the Indians need Terry Francona more than he needs them. He brings instant credibility, relevancy and leadership to a franchise desperate for all three.
    Oh for the Twins ownership to do something similar to shake up this sclerotic franchise.

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    Not too well, they are still fighting over things today.
    Orioles and Nationals have complicated relationship when it comes to marketing - Baltimore Sun
    Baseball Prospectus | Buying Off the Orioles

    MLB wouldn't want a team leaving a nice market like the TC to something like Tulsa. It's just not a realistic concern.
    OK City has been a fabulous success for the NBA. San Antonio would be a great market for MLB, as would Charlotte, Nashville or Vancouver. They are all growing much faster than the Twin Cities, and with better demographics.

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    The problem with a quick look like this is it doesn't really tell the whole story. The mid and late 90s Twins had significant payroll problems that factored deeply into their problems. And I think it's also fair to say that people - GMs, managers, lawyers etc - improve. So if Terry Ryan was or wasn't a good GM in 1996 isn't particularly relevant to whether or not he's a good GM now. We have seen that Ryan was the only small market GM in baseball that was able to change his teams nucleus of players on the fly and still make the playoffs. That's pretty impressive. And since he's come back he's made a number of strong trades so it doesn't seem like he's a confused old grandfather walking around.

    He has shown the ability to rebuild a losing team and keep it good on a small budget. He's still doing things like that.
    I don't recall the number of good trades he's made. One, was baked in the cake from 2010 (Span), and the only other one I can think that fits your parameters came out of the blue unexpectedly from the Phillies, and it's fair to say that the jury has yet to determine that it can be classified as a strong trade in the Twins favor. (And you certainly can't be calling the trades of Liriano, Morneau and Carroll as strong trades).

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    Not too well, they are still fighting over things today.
    Orioles and Nationals have complicated relationship when it comes to marketing - Baltimore Sun
    Baseball Prospectus | Buying Off the Orioles

    MLB wouldn't want a team leaving a nice market like the TC to something like Tulsa. It's just not a realistic concern.
    And yet the move still happened.

  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    And yet the move still happened.
    There's a pro team in Tulsa?

  20. #40
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    I have a bet rolling with a buddy. It is for dinner. At 68 wins or less he wins, at 69 its a push and at 70 I win. For the sake of filling my belly with a Blucy and some tator tots from the Blue Door I really hope they go 4-0. 2 weeks ago I appeared to be in good shape for this bet. I think I will be going hungry.

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