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Thread: The Mocks: 2014 MLB Draft (Twins Pick #5)

  1. #21
    Twins Contributor All-Star Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
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    I don't think we see Cedaroth make a huge jump. His velo is there, but his delivery is violent. Gray jumped when his velo went up.

    Lots of good talk, though. Love it.

  2. #22
    Tyler Beede, Sean Newcomb and Luke Weaver are college arms I'll be paying attention to next spring. Maybe it's the result of 3 straight abysmal seasons but the idea of getting a pitcher who can help our Twinkies win games in 1-2 years appeals more to me than hoping a HS pitcher (Kolek) learns to throw strikes in the Gulf Coast League next summer.

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    Twins Contributor All-Star Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
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    Beede has struggled to throw strikes for two years at Vandy. Newcomb relatively unknown. I watched Weaver pitch once late in the year and got a Kevin Slowey vibe... was surprised to see him ranked so high. I do agree, though, that a college arm would be more appealing. Can't you wait for a Meyer, Kolek, Stewart rotation in four years?

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    Beede has struggled to throw strikes for two years at Vandy. Newcomb relatively unknown. I watched Weaver pitch once late in the year and got a Kevin Slowey vibe... was surprised to see him ranked so high. I do agree, though, that a college arm would be more appealing. Can't you wait for a Meyer, Kolek, Stewart rotation in four years?
    You give me hope sir!

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    Beede has struggled to throw strikes for two years at Vandy. Newcomb relatively unknown. I watched Weaver pitch once late in the year and got a Kevin Slowey vibe... was surprised to see him ranked so high. I do agree, though, that a college arm would be more appealing. Can't you wait for a Meyer, Kolek, Stewart rotation in four years?
    Kiley McDaniels had Newcomb as a big time sleeper. Had scouts compare him to Lester. While a college arm would be great unless Beede finds his command I'm not sure there will be a great option there if your looking college arm.

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsin17 View Post
    Tyler Beede, Sean Newcomb and Luke Weaver are college arms I'll be paying attention to next spring. Maybe it's the result of 3 straight abysmal seasons but the idea of getting a pitcher who can help our Twinkies win games in 1-2 years appeals more to me than hoping a HS pitcher (Kolek) learns to throw strikes in the Gulf Coast League next summer.
    Jose Fernandez and Dylan Bundy got to the show just as fast as most college arms. We all know the belief about the Twins and the delayed development but perhaps the movement of Buxton can give us some hope that practice is over.

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    Basically all four above the Twins will target pitching 1st--with a slight possibility of WSOX going SS/3B. The way the Twins have screamed starting pitching Monday, they have pretty much painted themselves in a corner to select a SP--which is good! What can't be done is to draft a guy who has had a serious arm/shoulder injury--even if he projects to Nolan Ryan II! When Gibson was drafted, the rotation was "functional" and the reward justified the risk. It would be almost as big of a mistake to pick a Wimmers II wasting a 5th OA selection in a "good year" of the draft. The likelihood of a nearly-ready, top-of-the rotation pitcher falling to the Twins at 5th is remote. They should not select the "safer, quicker" college guy but rather roll the dice and select the best high-school pitcher who projects much higher. The Twins tend to promote at a glacial pace anyway--take the younger guy!

  8. #28
    If Beede solves his control issues, I'm pulling for him. He's been a favorite of mine for a while, and reminds me of all of the young Rays pitchers, which would be a huge plus if he could live up to their quality. But whoever it is, at #5 its a good pick to have in 2014 (at least from where we stand right now). None of this #4 with a "three player draft" business from last year.

  9. #29
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    I agree the 5th pick this year looks outstanding. I would not mind taking two college starting pitchers with our 2 top picks. I've been looking at others, but I'll take a look at Beede also. Thanks!

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  11. #30
    Honestly we should wait til about a month away from the draft to discuss this because so much changes from now til then. I mean what would of happened if the top 5 at this point last year stayed the top 5 in the draft? Well the draft would of been way different.

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    It is exciting to hear that the 2014 draft is suppose to be deep. It will be fun to follow the elite talents during the next 8 months.

    Quick question for everyone: should the Twins pick the best player available, or best pitcher available? I'm torn. On one hand, today's need (starting pitching) will not necessarily be the case in 2+ years, so it makes sense to just take the best player. On the other hand, good young starting pitching is the most valuable currency in baseball, so it makes sense to hoard as much of that as possible. If two players grade out equivalently or the position player is only slightly better than the pitcher, I can see the argument for going with the pitcher. Anyway, I'm curious how others feel about this.

    On a side note, it is interesting to project ahead with the Twins farm system. If they promote aggressively to the majors this year (graduate Buxton, Sano, E. Rosario and Pinto), the teenage cohort does well (Stewart, Berrios, Gosalves, Thorpe, Jorge, R. Rosario, Sulbaran), and they draft another pitcher with the #5 pick, there is a very real possibility that the top of the Twins farm system will be dominated by pitching at this time next year (10 of the top 15 prospects are pitchers).

  13. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by markos View Post
    It is exciting to hear that the 2014 draft is suppose to be deep. It will be fun to follow the elite talents during the next 8 months.

    Quick question for everyone: should the Twins pick the best player available, or best pitcher available? I'm torn. On one hand, today's need (starting pitching) will not necessarily be the case in 2+ years, so it makes sense to just take the best player. On the other hand, good young starting pitching is the most valuable currency in baseball, so it makes sense to hoard as much of that as possible. If two players grade out equivalently or the position player is only slightly better than the pitcher, I can see the argument for going with the pitcher. Anyway, I'm curious how others feel about this.

    On a side note, it is interesting to project ahead with the Twins farm system. If they promote aggressively to the majors this year (graduate Buxton, Sano, E. Rosario and Pinto), the teenage cohort does well (Stewart, Berrios, Gosalves, Thorpe, Jorge, R. Rosario, Sulbaran), and they draft another pitcher with the #5 pick, there is a very real possibility that the top of the Twins farm system will be dominated by pitching at this time next year (10 of the top 15 prospects are pitchers).
    IMO you always go with the BPA and I wouldn't mind either a SS or starting pitcher. Very good news the farm may be dominated by pitching, I didn't see this coming. I would definitely include Eades, and hope Wimmers can pitch himself back into the picture. Believe he will start at AA. Once again, I appreciate it, always nice to receive good news.

  14. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spicoli View Post
    Honestly we should wait til about a month away from the draft to discuss this because so much changes from now til then. I mean what would of happened if the top 5 at this point last year stayed the top 5 in the draft? Well the draft would of been way different.
    Jim Callis, before he left BA, did a Ask BA article about early potential draft picks and examined their record in pegging the top talent the past 3 years. Here is what he got:

    "Of the last 30 players to rate among our top five college or high school overall prospects in the fall before their draft, half of them became top-10 picks. That includes two of the three No. 1 overall selections (Appel in 2013, Cole), with 2012′s first choice (Carlos Correa) ranking No. 11 on our High School Top 100 the previous fall. Manaea, Giolito and Purke almost certainly would have gone in the top 10 if healthy, and Giolito was one of six of the players mentioned above taken in the 11-20 range."

    Half ended in the top 10, 14 others were first rounders, 2 in the supplement round (well over slot), 3 in the second round (2 well over slot), and 1 in the third round (well over slot). While it is impossible to know exactly who the Twins will draft it is never to early to educate ourselves on the top players. A majority of the top players now will be top players come draft day.

    Also, some of us just enjoy talking about the draft.

    Here is a link to Callis' article:

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/ask-ba-2014-draft-top-prospects/
    Last edited by cmb0252; 10-07-2013 at 08:51 PM.

  15. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by markos View Post
    It is exciting to hear that the 2014 draft is suppose to be deep. It will be fun to follow the elite talents during the next 8 months.

    Quick question for everyone: should the Twins pick the best player available, or best pitcher available? I'm torn. On one hand, today's need (starting pitching) will not necessarily be the case in 2+ years, so it makes sense to just take the best player. On the other hand, good young starting pitching is the most valuable currency in baseball, so it makes sense to hoard as much of that as possible. If two players grade out equivalently or the position player is only slightly better than the pitcher, I can see the argument for going with the pitcher. Anyway, I'm curious how others feel about this.

    On a side note, it is interesting to project ahead with the Twins farm system. If they promote aggressively to the majors this year (graduate Buxton, Sano, E. Rosario and Pinto), the teenage cohort does well (Stewart, Berrios, Gosalves, Thorpe, Jorge, R. Rosario, Sulbaran), and they draft another pitcher with the #5 pick, there is a very real possibility that the top of the Twins farm system will be dominated by pitching at this time next year (10 of the top 15 prospects are pitchers).
    I think Buxton proved two years ago that you should always go BPA. If two players are equal go need. Like most, i prefer grabbing a quick to the bigs college front of the rotation pitcher but you can't force a pick. Especially a top 5 pick where you have a chance to draft a star player.

  16. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by the_youngster View Post
    If Beede solves his control issues, I'm pulling for him. He's been a favorite of mine for a while, and reminds me of all of the young Rays pitchers, which would be a huge plus if he could live up to their quality. But whoever it is, at #5 its a good pick to have in 2014 (at least from where we stand right now). None of this #4 with a "three player draft" business from last year.
    if beede solves his control issues, he's the #2 pick in the draft.

  17. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Jose Fernandez and Dylan Bundy got to the show just as fast as most college arms. We all know the belief about the Twins and the delayed development but perhaps the movement of Buxton can give us some hope that practice is over.
    i've been saying this for the past year. high school phenoms are on a similar timeline to the bigs as college arms. bundy beat gerrit cole to the bigs by almost a year. yes, he's the exception but any high schooler picked inside the top five should be an exception.
    Last edited by Vervehound; 10-08-2013 at 09:57 AM.

  18. #37
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    My head says, GO BPA EVERYTIME!, but after seeing our abysmal rotation the last few seasons, I am thinking more along the lines of BPA, as in Best Pitcher Available. High upside arms are the gold currency and if the Twins ever had too many arms you can always deal one for a positon player. You can't do it very often the other way.

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  20. #38
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    My head says, GO BPA EVERYTIME!, but after seeing our abysmal rotation the last few seasons, I am thinking more along the lines of BPA, as in Best Pitcher Available. High upside arms are the gold currency and if the Twins ever had too many arms you can always deal one for a positon player. You can't do it very often the other way.

  21. #39
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    Things always change, see Kris Bryant's rise last year, but at this point BPA at #5 is looking like a pitcher or SS. I'd prefer a pitcher but it's not like the Twins aren't also desperate for a franchise SS too.

    It would be nice if the BPA was a college player though so the Twins could try to sign one of the high profile, hard-to-sign HS kids in the early 2nd. They haven't had that ability the last two years while drafting high.

  22. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Things always change, see Kris Bryant's rise last year, but at this point BPA at #5 is looking like a pitcher or SS. I'd prefer a pitcher but it's not like the Twins aren't also desperate for a franchise SS too.

    It would be nice if the BPA was a college player though so the Twins could try to sign one of the high profile, hard-to-sign HS kids in the early 2nd. They haven't had that ability the last two years while drafting high.
    BA had Kris Bryant as their 6th ranked college player in the fall so he didn't rise that much. As I say this I'm guessing no one would have guessed he would have the highest signing bonus. Gray on the other hand was way more of a surprise, not because of talent, but because he finally found control.

    I think all of us want a college guy but you have to go with what the draft gives you. Hopefully Beede finds his control finally because I'm a big fan of his stuff.

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