12-21-2013, 01:17 PM #161
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Draft decisions should be made on present-day, individual analyses and not on past results. It doesn't matter what happened in the past--it's what is now. There are advantages in both: the HS kid is younger, is more malleable for training, and has less wear-and-tear--he also has less experience and all of of it at lesser competition. The individual(s) is what matters, not past results. Example: Twins results with college pitchers in 1st round has been poor, but that that shouldn't affect this year's decision. In the same vein, the success of other franchises with college pitchers doesn't mean that the Twins will have the same result(s)--so that should not be the basis for decision. The decision must be made on the individuals this year and not on previous years.
Last edited by Kwak; 12-21-2013 at 02:03 PM.
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12-21-2013, 09:50 PM #162
There has been a shift to HS players, even Oakland and the Mets GM (both 'college heavy' guys) have picked high school talent over college talent, opting for the best HS hitter over the best college hitter in both cases. McKinney (out of my backyard in West Plano) and Smith (for the Mets).
That data from Bill James is dated. It ebbs and flows both ways. I have data in a database since 1970. You will find that more college players make MLB (less distance to go, injuries, etc) but more HS players accumlate WAR over 20, over 30, and over 50. HS picks tend to be better players (that make the pros), but more college athletes make the pros.
Looking at the best players in the game you can find most of them are HS players or international signings.
Here's a sampling...
P - Clayton Kershaw (HS), Max Scherzer (College), Jose Fernandez (HS), Adam Wainright (College)
C - Yadier Molina (Int FA), Joe Mauer (HS), Buster Posey (College)
1B - Chris Davis (CC), Paul Goldschmidt (College), Edwin Encarnacion (Int/HS), Freddie Freeman (HS), Joey Votto (HS)
2B - Robinson Cano (Int FA), Dustin Pedroia (College), Jeff Kipnis (College)
SS - Hanley Ramirez (Int FA), Andrelton Simmons (JC), Troy Tulowitzski (college)
3B - Miguel Cabrera (Int FA), Manny Machado (HS), Adrian Beltre (Int FA)
LF - Jayson Werth (HS), Torii Hunter (HS), Michael Cuddyer (HS)
CF - Mike Trout (HS), Andrew McCutchen (HS), Adam Jones (HS), Carlos Gomez (Int FA)
RF - Jay Bruce (HS), Yasiel Puig (Int FA), Wil Myers (HS)
Then the last decade...some attempts...
C - Joe Mauer (HS), Yadier Molina (Int FA)
1B - Albert Pujols (CC)
2B - Robinson Cano (Int FA)
SS - Derek Jeter (HS)
3B - A-Rod (HS), Miggy Cabrera (Int FA)
LF - Barry Bonds (College)
CF - Torii Hunter (HS)
RF - Vladimir Guerrero (Int FA)
DH - David Ortiz (Int FA)
12-21-2013, 10:00 PM #163
Who are the best Twins Draft Picks of the past 25 years?
1. Joe Mauer
2. Torii Hunter
3. Justin Morneau
4. Brad Radke
5. Chuck Knoblauch
6. Michael Cuddyer
Denard Span (HS), Jacque Jones (CC), Glen Perkins (College)...?
Wanna take a guess how the first 6 players were acquired?
12-21-2013, 10:19 PM #164
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12-21-2013, 10:21 PM #165
12-21-2013, 11:24 PM #166
http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft...s-it-all-mean/ but there is no smoking gun here.
Can anyone argue that the Twins would be better off looking at high school talent over and above college talent in the 2014 draft? Convince me with a counter-argument.
Finally, it's unlikely that the Twins will land a future Hall of Fame pitcher at #5, but that doesn't mean we can't wish, can't we? Nobody, no NOBODY has drafted a HOF pitcher in the top 10 since before 1965. Here's hoping that the Twins break that cycle!http://voices.washingtonpost.com/nat...tionalsjournal
12-22-2013, 08:52 AM #167
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I don't think you can be convinced.
Of course if you followed that author's logic, you would draft position players, not pitchers. And you would be biased (or in your words prejudiced) towards high schoolers.
Now there is an apparent bias towards college starting pitchers at the top of the first round. That's because there is more maturity, more refinement, more success against a higher competition. In 2013 it was Appel and Gray. As of now, it appears to be Rodon and Hoffman. That doesn't mean if you are the Twins that you should be prejudiced in favor of a college SP at #4 or #5. As has been said, no one is complaining about Kohl Stewart.
I think most of us would boo the Twins if they drafted the 2013 Beede with his poor control (lack of refinement). If he makes that refinement next year, the outlook would be different. That doesn't mean someone else would be wrong to prefer Kolech or Turner or Jackson or whoever they think is BPA.
12-22-2013, 09:28 AM #168
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12-22-2013, 10:02 AM #169
At number five the Twins should be targeting someone that is a franchise player. Someone that immediately because #1 or #2 at his position in the minor league system. I think the HOF, college vs High school numbers gets that discussion off track. Who, from this class, today, do you see fulfilling that role? The Twins have broken from their "Twins Player" drafting enough over the last few drafts that the 1st pick is truly wide open. Rodon, Hoffman, Turner, Kolek, Jackson (if he stays at C 1, outfield 2-3), Gatewood (If he stays at SS), and Maybe Toussiant; fit that role in my option. Who do you guys see as a franchise player? (pretend like we don't already have 3-4 in our system already )
Last edited by maxisagod; 12-22-2013 at 11:37 AM.
12-22-2013, 11:08 PM #170
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The Twins should be targeting whichever top talent is still available at #5 regardless of position or HS/UNI experience. The hope is that there are at least 5 elite talents in the draft. Last year there were 4 imo and the Twins got the 4th which happened to be a HS'er. This year it looks like there are 3 pitchers in that mix (Rodon, Hoffman and Kolek) with Turner, Gatewood (seems like he could drop this spring), Jackson and a couple of others that could rise. but the pool of elite talents could change considerably before the draft. All of them should be on the radar but whether or not they are 1st rd'ers or top 5 picks is unknown.
12-23-2013, 11:01 AM #171
Sabermetricians like Bill James have helped general managers devise a draft strategy before a tactical decision must be made in a draft-day "war room." I'm arguing that a good strategy would be to weigh the potential advantage of a college-seasoned draftee against the potential disadvantage of choosing a high school talent that has not faced a higher level of competition.
The fun is found in speculating what will happen as the Astros, Marlins, White Sox, and Cubs make picks 1-4. Then, the Twin's front office will make a tactical decision, based upon a strategic theory. I'm trying to make the case for including Bill James' findings as part of that strategic theory--that's all.
Baseball--like war, firefighting, and other strategic enterprises, has interlocking rings of Doctrine (Rule 21:no betting on baseball!), Strategy (sabermetricians' realm), Tactics (filling out a lineup, calling a pitch), and Operations (making that pitch, swinging away, fielding a grounder hit deep into the hole, planting, pivoting, and throwing to first base.) Someday I'll post a blog on this.
12-23-2013, 11:01 AM #172
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Seems reasonable to me to pick the guy you have the most faith in regardless od HS or college. It appears thats what they did with Stewart. If they are on "the fence" between two prospects, I could see taking the college guy from a risk perspective.
Last edited by Major Leauge Ready; 12-23-2013 at 11:04 AM.
12-23-2013, 11:21 AM #173
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12-23-2013, 11:48 AM #174
I'm looking forward to the 2014 MLB Draft...
Definitely a lot more production in Starting Pitching (both High School and College) as well as power throughout the draft.
"This Draft is pretty good," the AL scouting director said. "I'm excited. I think the pitching is a little ahead of the hitting, but it's actually a really athletic Draft with the high school kids and there's a pretty strong crop of power bats from college. I can't remember a time when there was this much power available."
12-23-2013, 12:22 PM #175
Also, James' research was conducted over several years, on a longitudinal basis, beyond just the 80's. So, now you want to narrow his findings too. Why?
You say that college vs. high school considerations are a "small weighting" come draft time. At least you are willing to admit that there is some weight here.
Let's call it a draw, kab21, and enjoy the speculation. That's all we're doing here, anyway. Speculating...
Last edited by Don't Feed the Greed Guy; 12-23-2013 at 12:39 PM.
12-23-2013, 03:29 PM #176
On the College vs High School Drafts - I can give you a rundown of total players drafted (4YR, HS, JC, Null (International), by position, who made the pros from each, and as they're incrementally better (5 WAR, 10 WAR, 20 WAR, 30 WAR, 40 WAR, 50 WAR).
College will get you more guys who make the pros. Almost double of the -5 WAR to 5 WAR players. Guys like Kyle Gibson (if he never plays MLB again) would fall into this category. His WAR is -0.8. Clete Thomas, 1.3 WAR is another.
Then as you go further along, it gets really close, less than 1-2% difference until you reach 30 WAR, then the high school players take off and are anywhere from 3-5 times more prevalent to have WAR over 30, over 40, and over 50.
Of the top 7 players drafted by the Twins since 1989 are all high school athletes, but one, Corey Koskie (5th).
1. Brad Radke - 44.5 WAR
2. Joe Mauer - 44 WAR
3. Torii Hunter - 42.5 WAR
4. Chuck Knoblauch - 39.8 WAR
5. Corey Koskie - 26.3 WAR
6. Justin Morneau - 19.7 WAR
7. Michael Cuddyer - 16.3 WAR
WAR is from Fangraphs WAR rating.
For what it's worth...
Billy Beane, supposedly a 'pro college' guy took Billy McKinney (West Plano, TX - HS) in the first round. Sandy Alderson, who trained/groomed Billy Beane while in Oakland, is a pro-college athlete guy, he picked the best HS hitter (Dominic Smith) over the top College hitter, D.J. Peterson (picked next by the Mariners).
12-23-2013, 07:27 PM #177
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I don't think anyone is claiming that they should look at HS "over & above"" College picks but they shouldn't do the opposite either.
I think there is always going to be a higher risk with a HS pick but if the talent warrants the selection they should go for it.
There have only been 4 HOF pitchers drafted since 1965 so the odds are against any of them being picked in the top 10. The odds are ALWAYS stacked against anyone being that great. For the record, the 4 are Blyleven, Nolan Ryan, Goose Gossage & Dennis Eckersley. All HS picks. So it appears ,if you want to draft a HOF pitcher pick a HS pitcher.
Another case could be made with Mauer. Drafting HS catchers is probably the highest risk possible but it turned out great with Mauer while the "safer" college pick of Prior flamed out. There is not "set in stone" formula.
PS..twinsfan34.. I believe Knoblauch was a college draft pick from Texas A&M but your point is still correct.
Last edited by golfboy1; 12-23-2013 at 07:34 PM.
12-23-2013, 09:21 PM #178
12-23-2013, 09:52 PM #179
This is a snippet...of pitchers only.
Randy Johnson (4YR), Greg Maddux (HS), Tom Glavine (HS), John Smoltz (HS), Jack Morris (4YR), Curt Schilling (JC) are also likely HOF candidates, but in Drafts prior to 1990. I haven't entered all the data into my Database before 1985 as there's many phases of the Draft. June Secondary, January Secondary, etc.
Here's a rundown of pitchers drafted since 1990.
Player_Name Club School_Type WAR Mike Mussina Orioles 4Yr 83.0 Roy Halladay Blue Jays HS 64.6 Andy Pettitte Yankees HS 60.8 Tim Hudson Athletics 4Yr 57.0 CC Sabathia Indians HS 55.3 Mark Buehrle White Sox JC 53.9 Roy Oswalt Astros JC 50.1 Javier Vazquez Expos HS 46.0 Brad Radke Twins HS 45.5 Cliff Lee Expos 4Yr 43.3 Justin Verlander Tigers 4Yr 40.3 Jake Peavy Padres HS 37.3 Zack Greinke Royals HS 36.9 Cole Hamels Phillies HS 34.8 Chris Carpenter Blue Jays HS 34.5 Derek Lowe Mariners HS 34.5 Josh Beckett Marlins HS 33.7 Jered Weaver Angels 4Yr 33.6 Dan Haren Cardinals 4Yr 33.4 Barry Zito Athletics 4Yr 33.0 Clayton Kershaw Dodgers HS 33.0 Matt Cain Giants HS 32.5 Brandon Webb Diamondbacks 4Yr 31.4 Jason Schmidt Braves HS 29.6 Adam Wainwright Braves HS 29.4 Kevin Millwood Braves HS 29.4 Mike Hampton Mariners HS 29.0 Alex Fernandez White Sox JC 28.9 Jarrod Washburn Angels 4Yr 28.5 Billy Wagner Astros 4Yr 28.1 Kerry Wood Cubs HS 27.7 Jon Lester Red Sox HS 27.6 John Lackey Angels JC 27.5 Ted Lilly Blue Jays JC 27.0 Joe Nathan Giants 4Yr 26.9 Bronson Arroyo Pirates HS 25.7 Jon Lieber Royals 4Yr 24.3 Randy Wolf Phillies 4Yr 24.1 James Shields Rays HS 23.8 Josh Johnson Marlins HS 23.8 Nick Markakis Reds HS 23.5 Ben Sheets Brewers 4Yr 23.4 Tim Lincecum Giants 4Yr 23.0 Jon Garland Cubs HS 22.4 Keith Foulke Giants 4Yr 20.9 Aaron Sele Red Sox 4Yr 20.6 Rick Helling Rangers 4Yr 20.6 Matt Morris Cardinals 4Yr 20.5 John Danks Rangers HS 20.4 Dontrelle Willis Cubs HS 20.3 Jermaine Dye Rangers HS 20.2 Mark Mulder Athletics 4Yr 20.0 Jonathan Papelbon Athletics 4Yr 19.7 Brad Penny Diamondbacks HS 19.6 Ryan Dempster Rangers HS 19.2 Kyle Lohse Cubs HS 19.0 Jeremy Guthrie Indians 4Yr 18.8 David Price Rays 4Yr 18.6 Doug Davis Dodgers HS 18.5 Max Scherzer Diamondbacks 4Yr 18.1 Erik Bedard Orioles JC 17.9 Scott Kazmir Mets HS 17.8 Rich Harden Mariners HS 17.6 Aaron Harang Rangers 4Yr 17.5
12-23-2013, 10:13 PM #180
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Thank you for sharing this list. A few things strike me when viewing it. One, Mike Mussina had an excellent career when compared with pitchers in his generation. Certainly HOF caliber. And Brad Radke had a heck of a career! Yes, a handful of the pitchers listed just below him are still pitching and will surely pass him but 45 career WAR is pretty outstanding. Too bad so many of those Twins teams weren't able to showcase his ability more.
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