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Thread: The Mocks: 2014 MLB Draft (Twins Pick #5)

  1. #181
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    Not a problem.

    And you hit a nail on the head. I guess I never quite realized how good Brad Radke was. The losing seasons and the ERA's closer to 4 than 3 often made me wonder if he was really that good. I do remember going to games he pitched before he was a quick pitcher and thus the games didn't take 3 hrs.

    Though I do apologize, I forgot to include the subquery that eliminates if the player appeared as a position player later (e.g. Jermaine Dye, Nick Markakis). Kinda interesting to see some players initially drafted as Pitchers, Buster Posey was another.

    I'd like to find a place where I can find the Draft data sets.

    Here's a rundown of that 64.

    4YR 25
    HS 33
    JC 6
    Total 64

    Would have to take away Jermaine Dye and Nick Markasis from the HS picks.

    One thing, on the college vs HS thing. I don't think we should penalyze a team for picking a player who eventually went to college and made the pros. It's actually tougher to know he'd make the pros when looking at him at 17/18 years old.

    One interesting thing about Jermaine Dye, while we're on the topic, he only ended up at JC. Not sure if he didn't like the money offered or wasn't offered a contract or what. The Rangers perhaps didn't offer him a contract as he was picked until the 43rd Round.

    So a lot of parameters need to be defined in the whole College vs HS debate.

  2. #182
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    Quote Originally Posted by Don't Feed the Greed Guy View Post
    Who is eliminating half the draft pool? Me? You have turned my argument--positional bias in favor in favor of college-level pitchers into a straw-man argument where I am now eliminating half the draft pool.

    Also, James' research was conducted over several years, on a longitudinal basis, beyond just the 80's. So, now you want to narrow his findings too. Why?

    You say that college vs. high school considerations are a "small weighting" come draft time. At least you are willing to admit that there is some weight here.

    Let's call it a draw, kab21, and enjoy the speculation. That's all we're doing here, anyway. Speculating...
    I guess I never saw these arguments as willing to even look at HS players.

    Quote Originally Posted by Don't Feed the Greed Guy View Post
    Instead of BPA (best player available), this draft calls for the best college-level starting pitcher available (BCLSPA!). Reason? The depth of college-level talent in draft, the Twins need for starting pitching, and finally, this quote from Michael Lewis' Moneyball. as Billy Beane and the Oakland A's positioned themselves for the 2002 amateur draft:
    Quote Originally Posted by Don't Feed the Greed Guy View Post
    Given the potential pool of talent in June of 2014, I would be prejudiced toward drafting a college-level arm, without simply making that a default position. If 2014's version of Buxton or Russell are on the board, pick 'em. Problem is--unlike football and basketball drafts--talent scouts don't know if they have a Buxton or a bust until years later. That's why the statistics point toward betting on the college-level talent. That's where I'd lean, plain and simple.
    The problem is that I disagree with your analysis of the talent pool for next year at this point. There are two great college arms that as of now will be gone and some less interesting college pitchers with a lot of HS'ers that are more interesting. I am much more interested in Kolek at this point than Beede for example but he's not even on your list of guys to watch.

    And the Bill James data is from drafts done in the 80's and early 90's. Baseball America has a list broken down from a similar time period (a little later I think) that shows success rate of 1st rd'ers and varying levels of success. For average regulars (not guys that simply made it to the majors) there was a slight bias towards HS players. This was linked in one of your articles. Twinsfan34 shows a similar trend (although not with %'s) so I'm not sure if the old Bill James data (you referenced a 10 yr old book) is even relevant.

  3. #183
    Senior Member Triple-A goulik's Avatar
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    Would be neat to see foreign born as well. I looked for Johan before realizing he did not fit the 4yr, JC, or HS categories. Also interesting no 3yr pitchers as college juniors can be drafted...

  4. #184
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    Goulik,

    Sorry, my distinction of "4YR" is college in general, it could have been a JR coming out. Thus '3 years' - I used a lot of data from Baseball-Reference and didn't go into it much more. But that would be another angle, selecting Jr's from College vs Sr's.

    I'm working on putting together a column for the foreign born, although it would currently just be from where they were at previously. e.g. Jose Fernandez is Cuban, however, he went to a US high school and thus would be considered American based on the data I have. Probably not what you're looking for.

    If I had access to data that had birthplaces (without manually having to enter it all in) - I'd gladly run those numbers for you.


    Here's a quick rundown of all players DRAFTED (All Positions, then Pitchers) since 1990.

    But again, that doesn't necessarily take into account where they're born.

    All Positions
    country_code
    Total %
    Virgin Islands 15 0.0%
    US 33094 96.2%
    Puerto Rico 494 1.4%
    Other 317 0.9%
    Canada 474 1.4%
    Total 34394 100.0%
    Pitchers
    country_code
    Total %
    Virgin Islands 6 0.0%
    US 16797 96.6%
    Puerto Rico 135 0.8%
    Other 168 1.0%
    Canada 278 1.6%
    Total 17384 100.0%

  5. #185
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    No matter what studies, old or new, say in the end it won't matter. Twins have shown the last two years they are taking the top talent regardless of age/position. Last year some reports suggested Stewart was higher on the Twin's draft board than Gray and if both were there they still would have taken Stewart. While safety is one of many factors that scouts look at when evaluating players it is only one part of the puzzle. Hopefully we won't be drafting in the top 5 of the draft much longer but while we are we have to get the BPA. You can find stars later in the draft but it does get harder out side of the top 5-10 picks.

    Now, who will be the BPA come draft day at #5 is what us draft junkies live for. I look forward to the debates over who prefers who like we had last year. To me, and others here at TwinsDaily, draft season never ends!

  6. #186
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    I think in some ways this draft is shaping up like last year. There are a couple of high upside college arms followed by some HS bats and pitchers (and Turner). And just like last year there is a gap to the next best college starters. That can change since Gray moved up from interesting 1st rd'er to an elite talent but Stanek and Manaea dropped from top 5 contenders. The problem at #5 is that there are only X number of elite talents and every team wants college starters that also have upside (they get picked first).

    The frustrating part of this recent argument is that it's almost exactly the same as last where arguments were made well almost up to the draft that the Twins should be focusing on guys like Shipley, Anderson, Manaea and Stanek (despite poor seasons by the latter two) instead of Bryant and Stewart. The main arguments were positional NEED and NEED for immediate pitching help. The four prospects mentioned are all good ones but there's a reason they all lasted to pick 15+.

    Rather frustratingly I still type Kris Humphries (Bryant) every time.

    Right now Kolek is the guy I hope drops (assuming Rodon and Hoffman go 1/2). And Gatewood is the guy I think drops out of consideration. His defense is questionable already and I'm not exactly sold on his hitting (the upside is there).

  7. #187
    Senior Member Triple-A InfraRen's Avatar
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    Is the draft here yet?? Haha

    Seeing the MLB minor league rankings with the Twins well-represented and 2 in the top 5 is pretty awesome, not to mention that #1 is all ours! Got me pumped.

    Get to add another top 5 pick. Can't wait! But have to wait.....
    Till I Collapse

  8. #188
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    Sounds like the White Sox (picking 3rd) are not straying too far from the BA, MLB draft boards
    Link
    They're looking at Rondon, Hoffman, Turner, Kolek, Beede, and Gatewood. I'm sure that list will change and morph, just like the Twins list will, but the Cubs and the Sox are the two teams to watch entering into this years draft. Assuming Rondon and Hoffman stay at the top, it leaves things open for the Sox at 3. I'm optimistic that there is going to be a game changer there at 5 for the Twins. This year still looks deep and though I'm low on Beede right now, I'd be happy with any of the other five players on that list as well as Jackson.

  9. #189
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    Quote Originally Posted by maxisagod View Post
    Sounds like the White Sox (picking 3rd) are not straying too far from the BA, MLB draft boards
    Link
    They're looking at Rondon, Hoffman, Turner, Kolek, Beede, and Gatewood. I'm sure that list will change and morph, just like the Twins list will, but the Cubs and the Sox are the two teams to watch entering into this years draft. Assuming Rondon and Hoffman stay at the top, it leaves things open for the Sox at 3. I'm optimistic that there is going to be a game changer there at 5 for the Twins. This year still looks deep and though I'm low on Beede right now, I'd be happy with any of the other five players on that list as well as Jackson.
    Yes, lots of exciting and intriguing possibilities, and it always seems like when it comes to draft day, something wonky happens (like Gray NOT going 2 last year) and you never know, one we (as fans) covet could fall to 5.
    Till I Collapse

  10. #190
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    Here's another pre 2014 amateur season mock draft:
    Hound Sports

    After a while you start seeing "group think" in some of these mocks, at least until people start seeing more games and contacting sources again. A majority of these mocks have a top five made up of Rodon, Hoffman, Kolek, Turner, and Alex Jackson.

    Matt Garriock came out with a top 300 prospect list as well (Not A Mock, a draft prospect list) From some of his comments and prospect break down over at Minor League Ball, I get the feeling he thinks Tyler Beede is going to break into the top five.

  11. #191
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    Yeah, there's going to be a lot of movement on these lists. IIRC, a year ago guys like Gray and Shipley ended up with a lot of helium and Manaea fell. The year before, Zimmer flew up draft boards. So a lot will change. I've read some nice things about a Fl HS pitcher from Haiti named Touki Toussaint who could easily put himself into the mix at #5. I'd also bet that the Twins are scouting Nick Gordon a lot - his dad and brother both played in the majors (they love bloodlines) and he's currently in a FL HS and the Twins have taken a lot of kids from southwest highschools these last few drafts (Buxton, Goodrum, Boyd, etc). And, lastly, it looks like Michael Gettys is the top Georgia high schooler this year and compares somewhat favorably to Meadows/Frazier last year. Looks like it'll be a pretty solid, deep draft. Hopefully we get something great out of it.

  12. #192
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    One other point on the draft - the Marlins at #2 also have three other picks in the 30-40 range and a really cheap owner. They could very well underdraft at 2 to save some money for other guys and let a better player slip by them.

  13. #193
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    With HS and college baseball getting ready to start up it is time to get excited about the draft. Just looking at the names this year compared to last year makes it clear how talented this draft is. Definitely a more talented draft.

  14. #194
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    Quote Originally Posted by maxisagod View Post
    Here's another pre 2014 amateur season mock draft:
    Hound Sports

    After a while you start seeing "group think" in some of these mocks, at least until people start seeing more games and contacting sources again. A majority of these mocks have a top five made up of Rodon, Hoffman, Kolek, Turner, and Alex Jackson.

    Matt Garriock came out with a top 300 prospect list as well (Not A Mock, a draft prospect list) From some of his comments and prospect break down over at Minor League Ball, I get the feeling he thinks Tyler Beede is going to break into the top five.
    Matt Garrioch's list is definitely worth looking over. He never goes with the general consensus on guys which is nice. His individual write ups on players are some of the best ones around (and are 100% free).

  15. #195
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    One other point on the draft - the Marlins at #2 also have three other picks in the 30-40 range and a really cheap owner. They could very well underdraft at 2 to save some money for other guys and let a better player slip by them.
    Yeah, if the Marlins were to grab a top 8 pick instead of the clear 2nd pick to save Money for later in the draft, the Twins would benefit greatly. For the purposes of this scenario lets say it's still Jeff Hoffman, he could easily fall to the Twins if the Chicago teams get obsessed with different players. Or even if the pitching starved Cubs or Soxs take him, that leaves more top end talent for the Twins to choose from. Drafts are more fun when there are lots of good choices to debate instead of just one clear obvious choice for your teams pick.

    My prediction for the player with the most movement on draft boards this year is Gatewood. That kid could go 2nd to 30th based on scouting reports.

  16. #196
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    I'd also bet that the Twins are scouting Nick Gordon a lot - his dad and brother both played in the majors (they love bloodlines) and he's currently in a FL HS and the Twins have taken a lot of kids from southwest highschools these last few drafts (Buxton, Goodrum, Boyd, etc)..
    Nick Gordon (not to be confused with Whitney Houston's daughter's husband) is an intriguing kid. Probably the best defensive SS in the draft and he has a 94 mph fastball as a pitcher. SS and LHSP are very big organizational needs right now, so I would not mind them going after Gordon (as a SS; he bats L and throws R) or a LHSP.
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  17. #197
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Nick Gordon (not to be confused with Whitney Houston's daughter's husband) is an intriguing kid. Probably the best defensive SS in the draft and he has a 94 mph fastball as a pitcher. SS and LHSP are very big organizational needs right now, so I would not mind them going after Gordon (as a SS; he bats L and throws R) or a LHSP.
    Just for clarification, mlb's write up on him lists him as a RHP.

  18. #198
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    Just for clarification, mlb's write up on him lists him as a RHP.
    OK then
    I still think that he is a better SS than a P
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  19. #199
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    OK then
    I still think that he is a better SS than a P
    Most scouts project him as a SS over pitcher. Gordon is definitely one of the most interesting prospects in the draft. If he can prove he can hit with even average power for a SS he could find his way into the top 5.

    While most the elite names will still be at the top of draft boards come draft day there are definitely a lot more guys compared to last year that I can see sneaking into the conversation at #5. I just love how deep in arms and SS this class looks to be.

  20. #200
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    Is there a potential Bryant in this draft? A college slugger that might sneak into the top 5? From what I've seen the best college power is the Indiana catcher and Virginia OF Derek Fisher but I'm not sure if either of them could sneak up.

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