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Thread: Terry Ryans Rules for constructing a low cost, risk averse winner as i see it part I

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by howieramone View Post
    The Hot Stove League is a time for optimism. Ryan was recently quoted as saying even our best assets, Sano and Buxton, are not off the table in the right deal. We have money to spent, we have assets to trade, let's see how this plays out.
    This front office has a track record that inspires pessimism. Yes, they built a nice winner from 2001-2010 but TR helmed 6 losing seasons prior (and the org as a whole had 8 losing seasons prior). He's never really helmed a quick turnaround, certainly not with the kind of teams we fielded in 2013. The 2000 Twins were much, much better positioned than their 2013 counterparts. (Same with past Twins turnarounds 1986 and 1990)

    Also, we have assets to trade? That's crazy talk. Yeah, I am sure we could trade Sano and Buxton, but those kind of trades are rare for a reason. I'm not sure if a trade like that has ever been done by a team as bereft of MLB-ready talent as the 2013 Twins.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    This front office has a track record that inspires pessimism. Yes, they built a nice winner from 2001-2010 but TR helmed 6 losing seasons prior (and the org as a whole had 8 losing seasons prior). He's never really helmed a quick turnaround, certainly not with the kind of teams we fielded in 2013. The 2000 Twins were much, much better positioned than their 2013 counterparts. (Same with past Twins turnarounds 1986 and 1990)

    Also, we have assets to trade? That's crazy talk. Yeah, I am sure we could trade Sano and Buxton, but those kind of trades are rare for a reason. I'm not sure if a trade like that has ever been done by a team as bereft of MLB-ready talent as the 2013 Twins.
    Additionally, I think there's zero chance Buxton is on the table and close to zero chance for Sano as well, regardless of what Ryan says.
    Just remember: You put the lime IN the coconut. Only THEN, can you drink it all up.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    Additionally, I think there's zero chance Buxton is on the table and close to zero chance for Sano as well, regardless of what Ryan says.
    If Perkins goes down, we'll need them to grab Capps.

  4. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    Three years can get you Hughes and Feldman pretty easily. Santana might demand 4 years unless the dollar amount is high for the three years.

    I would honestly look to give market value and then add money in incentives to try to entice. Probably innings pitched. Santana at 3/45 plus up to 3 million a year in incentives might be enticing to him.

    I would like an owner to approach the market in this way. Build in incentives that you aren't going to mind paying since it will mean good-great performance.
    I think this is a very smart approach. The FA market is pretty darn thin and would be a big mistake to go 4 or 5 years right now. An agressive 3 year contract as you have suggested has a good chance of landing SPs that will make a difference without risking our future. One of the changes I would like to see instituted is to extend key players early in the careers like the Rays have done.

    I hope the are really agressive with Sanatana and Hughes on 3 year deals. Add those two guys and this is a much better team.
    Last edited by Major Leauge Ready; 10-03-2013 at 06:22 PM.

  5. #25
    Senior Member Triple-A Teflon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brandon View Post
    Actually what I am saying is to look at the aggregate pitching. It doesn't matter how your team gets to a 3.7 ERA in this example. what matters is that the team has a 3.7 era. And I am not saying it is right or wrong. I am saying this is how I see he Twins and Terry Ryan approach constructing his pitching staffs. This is why he goes after the pitchers he does. Ryan seems to go after average or less than average pitchers because he has a good bullpen to balance it out. He does this because that is the most economical and risk averse way to get to the Team ERA goal to compete. It does work but you need the other aspects to win as well. hence why I wrote all the rules the first time. I will try to show how these interconnect as I go. the bullpen and rotation ERA are combined and aggregated when looking at the final number of where we need to be.
    The fallacy of believing you can offset the ERAs of your starting staff with the ERAs of your relievers and achieve the same number of wins is the fallacy of believing that innings pitched by relievers when trailing occur in wins as frequently as innings pitched when holding the lead.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Teflon View Post
    The fallacy of believing you can offset the ERAs of your starting staff with the ERAs of your relievers and achieve the same number of wins is the fallacy of believing that innings pitched by relievers when trailing occur in wins as frequently as innings pitched when holding the lead.
    If we average 3.7 earned runs per game given up who cares how they are given up. TR doesn't and that is why he patterns the staffs this way. The dollars and years are too high so he goes after lesser pitchers for the rotation. How often has the Twins signed a good pitcher in FA? Once when the pitcher had no where else to go. He kept the team good by having a strong relief corps to follow the starting pitcher. How often did we have a vulture reliever go in and get a win? Crain won 12 one year, Fiore won 10 another, Guerrier and Rincon would win 4-6 games consistently, with a strong bullpen we are able to come back a lot of times as long as the game wasn't too far gone by the time they came in.

    Note the 3.7 ERA is a number I came up with.

  7. #27
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    Twins will have to spend more money than I think they will to come close to the 3.7 number. You need starters to go 6+ innings for that to happen. Those starters do not come cheap.

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brandon View Post
    If we average 3.7 earned runs per game given up who cares how they are given up. TR doesn't and that is why he patterns the staffs this way.

    The Twins have come close to a 3.7 team ERA once in the TR years (2005).

    I think he should find another pattern.
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

  9. #29
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    3.7 would put the Twins 5th in the league in ERA. They have been 5th before. I think they were 5th in 2010. The environment to score runs is changing and going down across the board.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    The Twins have come close to a 3.7 team ERA once in the TR years (2005).

    I think he should find another pattern.
    To be fair to the OP, a 3.7 team ERA in 2013 would have equated to roughly a 109 ERA+ in Target Field. The Twins have eclipsed that a few times, although not since 2006.

    To be more critical of the OP, the team ERA+ last year was 89, the third straight year at or below that number. Previously, the Twins hadn't had a single year ERA+ mark that low since 1995, another mess that TR largely inherited but did not turn around quickly.

  11. #31
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    Looking at yearly ERA+ numbers, looks like our recent max year-to-year swing was about 14 points (adding 14 from 2003 to 2004, subtracting 14 from 2010 to 2011).

    The Royals just had a 22 point jump, but they were far more aggressive last offseason than the Twins have ever been. The Indians made a 17 point jump, but of course they had suffered an 11 point drop from 2011-2012 due to career-worst performances from Masterson and Jimenez (plus the rotting hulk of Derek Lowe).

  12. #32
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Joe A. Preusser's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    I've brought that up many times in here over the last month or so. IMO, part of that is Gardy waiting too long to make the necessary moves, but certainly part of it is on the bullpen as well. It has been talked about, though....but Ryan isn't going to bring it up. Besides Pelfrey and Correia, it's the bullpen and the up the middle defense he wants to emphasis as good.
    Inherited runners are the fault of the pitcher who put them on base. If I'm a starter and leave with the bases loaded, then I deserve to have a few runs charged against me for it. Getting out of that scenario scott-free is a gift which artificially deflates an ERA. If the Twins BP allowed more IRs to score than other teams, it is mostly because they came in to more situations where there were guys in scoring position. And that's not all on Gardy, it is more on our starters who seemed to be able to handle 5-6 innings of solid work and then quickly implode with little or no notice once the next inning started.

    And I'm not sure what you meant by your last comment, Correia and the up-the-middle defense WERE good this year. Correia was better than at least one starting pitcher on every single MLB team this year...(Ok, I didn't fact check that one, but it's hard to believe that there was any MLB team with 5 starters under 4.2 ERA.)

  13. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe A. Preusser View Post
    Inherited runners are the fault of the pitcher who put them on base. If I'm a starter and leave with the bases loaded, then I deserve to have a few runs charged against me for it. Getting out of that scenario scott-free is a gift which artificially deflates an ERA. If the Twins BP allowed more IRs to score than other teams, it is mostly because they came in to more situations where there were guys in scoring position. And that's not all on Gardy, it is more on our starters who seemed to be able to handle 5-6 innings of solid work and then quickly implode with little or no notice once the next inning started.
    It certainly isn't "all on Gardy" but some of the blame is on his shoulders. It is his job to put the Twins in the best position possible to win games. If folding in the 5th or 6th inning is common for the starting pitchers then he needs to be ready to deal with that either pulling them before it happens or he needs to have a quick hook once they do start to struggle.

    And I'm not sure what you meant by your last comment, Correia and the up-the-middle defense WERE good this year. Correia was better than at least one starting pitcher on every single MLB team this year...(Ok, I didn't fact check that one, but it's hard to believe that there was any MLB team with 5 starters under 4.2 ERA.)
    I think he was saying that there are very few "bright" points on the team this season and the bullpen is one of them, like Correia and the middle defense. Ryan isn't going to go out of his way to tear down the BP about the inherited runners scored because they are one of the few things seen as a success this season.

    As for Correia I didn't look at every team but he was better than only 5 of the 20 starters in the AL Central and none of those played for the Detroit Tigers.

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    It certainly isn't "all on Gardy" but some of the blame is on his shoulders. It is his job to put the Twins in the best position possible to win games. If folding in the 5th or 6th inning is common for the starting pitchers then he needs to be ready to deal with that either pulling them before it happens or he needs to have a quick hook once they do start to struggle.



    I think he was saying that there are very few "bright" points on the team this season and the bullpen is one of them, like Correia and the middle defense. Ryan isn't going to go out of his way to tear down the BP about the inherited runners scored because they are one of the few things seen as a success this season.

    As for Correia I didn't look at every team but he was better than only 5 of the 20 starters in the AL Central and none of those played for the Detroit Tigers.
    Of all qualified starting pitchers in MLB with at least 100 innings pitched, Correia's ERA checked in at 102. 102 divided by 30 teams = ~3.3. So on average, Correia was better than 1.7 of the starting pitchers for each team. I admit, that is a big generalization, and I apparently misunderstood Puck's intention in the first place, so I'm happy to let it drop.

    As far as Gardy needing a quicker hook, I kind of go back and forth. My first, gut instinct tells me that if our SP isn't going 6+ innings consistently he isn't doing his job. By not catering to that weakness, Gardy is in a way holding them accountable for their performance. On the other hand, I agree there were a bunch of instances last year where we all just knew that our SP was doomed when he came back out for another inning. But at the end of the season, we all saw our pen was just gassed and much less effective. Maybe it was doomed from the start because we didn't add enough starting pitching who could be effective and protect the pen for the whole year?

    As far as inherited runners go, I still put most of the blame on the SP. I'd be interested to see some stats on the number of IRs we handed off to the pen and how many scored, as well as how we stacked up %wise against other teams. I also wonder what the inning ERA is for those innings where pitchers enter the game with RISP.

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    Additionally, I think there's zero chance Buxton is on the table and close to zero chance for Sano as well, regardless of what Ryan says.
    It would have to be one of the best hauls in the history of MLB, something akin to the Herscheal Walker trade the Vikes made with the Cowboys. Otherwise there seems to be way too much hype built up around both of those guys to deal them.

  16. #36
    What if we just abandoned our starting pitchers and had all relievers? We would have to cut down the position players to ten, but that would just take away the opportunity for Gardy to screw up pinch hitting. Double win. You could have the best bullpen arms in the game with all the money you would save.
    Technically someone would have to start. We would just draw straws for it. I have to think we could have a better pitching staff that way. At the very least it would be interesting to see.

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by dgwills View Post
    What if we just abandoned our starting pitchers and had all relievers? We would have to cut down the position players to ten, but that would just take away the opportunity for Gardy to screw up pinch hitting. Double win. You could have the best bullpen arms in the game with all the money you would save.
    Technically someone would have to start. We would just draw straws for it. I have to think we could have a better pitching staff that way. At the very least it would be interesting to see.
    I haven't thought about going to that extreme, but have thought about going to a 4 man rotation. Getting Gibson, Correia, Deduno and FA 'X' go 4-5 innings and then they are done. Hopefully, they can get through the order twice and not have to see it a third time. Then guys like Albers, Swarzak, Diamond, Duensing, Pressley and our other numerous AAAA caliber guys can be on a second rotation going the next two innings. This will limit the rotations exposure. The Twins still have three guys: Burton, Fien and Perkins to clean up the last two innings. The key is our starters gotta keep us in the game through at least 4 innings. Still not an easy thing to do with this staff.

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    TR built a good bullpen in 2013, no one's disputing that. And he's built good ones before. But you cannot compare bullpens to starters like this. Until they double the roster size to 50, you need both.

    Verlander 2013 WAR: 4.6 total or .021 WAR/IP *** and this was a "down" season for him!
    Twins Bullpen 2013 WAR: ~6.7 total or .012 WAR/IP

    Notice how one accumulates WAR at almost twice the rate of the others?

    The current Twins are about as devoid of starting pitching as a major league organization can get. They either need to start using their best "asset" (spending room) to acquire some, or they need to admit they're perfectly happy wasting 5-6 seasons in cheap "rebuild" mode, waiting for future success which might never come.
    Verlanders 4.6 WAR cost 20 million the Twins bullpen cost half that with 6.7 WAR. we have 2.1 more WAR with an extra 10 million to spend. I just compared their value. and I would rather have the extra WAR even though Verlander is more entertaining.

  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brandon View Post
    Verlanders 4.6 WAR cost 20 million the Twins bullpen cost half that with 6.7 WAR. we have 2.1 more WAR with an extra 10 million to spend. I just compared their value. and I would rather have the extra WAR even though Verlander is more entertaining.
    Sorry, that doesn't even make sense. This ONE player is giving you a value that is 2/3 the value of EIGHT players. That's what make him, and pitchers like him, so valuable.
    Just remember: You put the lime IN the coconut. Only THEN, can you drink it all up.

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brandon View Post
    Verlanders 4.6 WAR cost 20 million the Twins bullpen cost half that with 6.7 WAR. we have 2.1 more WAR with an extra 10 million to spend. I just compared their value. and I would rather have the extra WAR even though Verlander is more entertaining.
    How'd that work out for the Twins?
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

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