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Thread: Article: The Tanaka Factor

  1. #101
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    Quote Originally Posted by BG816 View Post
    Again, good point. But don't you think PR has taken a hit recently with the decreased payroll, the decreased talent on the field, and the decrease in wins in the standings? The county is still paying for that stadium. I would hope ownership doesn't think it's okay to continue down this path, and I know the fan-base doesn't think it's okay. So I think the risk of PR hits IS still the case today, granted less pronounced or obvious.
    Yes, there is still a PR issue, but now they can say they are rebuilding...now the can say attendance is down...now they can say we have a big payroll guy, even if the other three payroll guys are gone...and, you know, we're going into season five now at the new stadium. It's not right after the new ballpark got approved and moved into. Your argument is sound, but now it's a matter of degrees the PR hit threat is, IMO. And, again, even if the ownership is willing to live up to what they said, the GM has to make the moves...and ownership has made it clear, it's all in Ryan's hands...and Ryan thinks a 3 year 21M FA contract is a very big contract.

    That is not to say Ryan won't change...he may...but I think he'll build this team up to where he wants to, and then bail if/when the really big contracts need to be done.
    Just remember: You put the lime IN the coconut. Only THEN, can you drink it all up.

  2. #102
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    BG816,

    I do hope you are right in that they will go hard after Tanaka. I'm probably one of the more conservative people on this board in terms of how the Twins should operate, and like you I think this is the smart choice. I'm not as optimistic in them doing so.

    Puck,

    Here's the real problem with FA. 3 big moves won't make this team go from a 90 loss team to a 90 win team. It might make the 96 loss team drop to an 85-80 loss team depending on how things play out, and while that will be more beneficial to watch (and that's assuming they make the right 3 moves, which we all know isn't a given), I don't see how it makes sense unless the big moves are going to be around (and not blocking) the next wave. I like Tanaka from the standpoint of his age, as he's going to be playing out his contract in his 20s as opposed to his 30s. That said, if the Twins commit 100M to a guy, how much more are they going to spend? And how much more should they? I just don't see them handing out multiple huge contracts, and for good reason. They will need some flexibility as the next wave arrives. It's been said numerous times that no one knows which prospects will succeed and which will fail. That's all true, and it's all the more reason why you have money available so that you can plug the inevitable hole once the team is good again.

    Getting Tanaka (or Abreau as a consolation prize), and doing little else other than trading away some bullpen players for prospects would be an excellent offseason in my opinion.

  3. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    Getting Tanaka (or Abreau as a consolation prize), and doing little else other than trading away some bullpen players for prospects would be an excellent offseason in my opinion.
    Agree 100%. The only thing I care about this offseason is adding long term building blocks, prospects basically, and Abreu and Tanaka are just major league ready prospects. They are young enough to have several good years remaining while we are hopefully relevant while the other FA's will be gone or declining by then. Other than those two we're just throwing our money away to be not quite as bad in the short term, getting a worse draft pick in the process, but doing nothing for the long term.

  4. #104
    Agree with the last two post. This team is so abysmal right now that no off-season maneuvers are going to make this team a winner in 2014. A lot of youngn's are going to be making their debut throughout the season, and most of them will struggle at some point. That sounds like a rebuilding year to me. Grabbing a high-profile int'l player like Tanaka or Abreu (or both!) has to be priority #1. Picking up a couple of decent 30 year old pitchers is not what this team needs. This team needs as many young uber-prospects as possible.

  5. #105
    The biggest glaring hole right now is starting pitching. Until this is fixed nothing else matters. Tanaka, if he produces as advertised, would be a huge step in the right direction. If they are able to get Tanaka and sign another quality FA SP this offseason to a 3 year deal I think the team could have a turnaround year.

    I understand there are other issues, particularly with the offense. I think if the pitching is corrected, the other issues can be easily fixed through platoons, prospects, and free agents.

  6. #106
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BabyJesusBuxton View Post
    The biggest glaring hole right now is starting pitching. Until this is fixed nothing else matters. Tanaka, if he produces as advertised, would be a huge step in the right direction. If they are able to get Tanaka and sign another quality FA SP this offseason to a 3 year deal I think the team could have a turnaround year.

    I understand there are other issues, particularly with the offense. I think if the pitching is corrected, the other issues can be easily fixed through platoons, prospects, and free agents.
    I am in 100% agreement. Tanaka and Hughes or Johnson or Kazmir or Hudson (1 year deal) would BLOW. MY. MIND.

    A well-run organization with massive money to spend would do that. So, there is the problem. Right there. End of story.

  7. #107
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    I do agree that $120 million would be better spent in Cuba. But I am not sure it is better spent in the U.S. on free agents.

  8. #108
    Agreed that it is unlikely they land Tanaka but in order to save face with the fans they need to make a move such as this. I could see the attendance drop by more than 30 percent in 2015 if they don't improve next year to a respectable MLB team. 2014 attendance (tickets sold as apposed to people in house) will be fine because of the allstar game. If they lose 85+ games again next year there are going to be tons of people jumping ship on top of those just trying to score allstar tickets.

  9. #109
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    Not only is it unlikely that we get Tanaka, but I would go a step further - it's impossible. The Yankees have decided to go after him strong and the other teams in the mix are the Red Sox, Dodgers and Rangers. We would need to bid between $150 and $200 million just for the rights to make an offer. We just don't have pockets that deep.

  10. #110
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    Quote Originally Posted by ScottyB View Post
    Not only is it unlikely that we get Tanaka, but I would go a step further - it's impossible. The Yankees have decided to go after him strong and the other teams in the mix are the Red Sox, Dodgers and Rangers. We would need to bid between $150 and $200 million just for the rights to make an offer. We just don't have pockets that deep.
    While I agree it is very unlikely the Twins will get Tanaka, the $150-$200 million posting fee is pretty rediculous. While the Yankees may go after him, they are trying to get under the $189 million luxery tax threshold. With Arod's 2014 salray in a legal fight, the Yankees may actually have less free agent budget than the Twins do and that's beside the consideration that they surely will still at least attemt to retain Robinson Cano.

  11. #111
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    No one is bidding $200MM dollars.
    Lighten up Francis....

  12. #112
    The King In The North All-Star Nick Nelson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ScottyB View Post
    We would need to bid between $150 and $200 million just for the rights to make an offer.
    Uhhh...

  13. #113
    Senior Member All-Star LaBombo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BabyJesusBuxton View Post
    2014 attendance (tickets sold as apposed to people in house) will be fine because of the allstar game. If they lose 85+ games again next year there are going to be tons of people jumping ship on top of those just trying to score allstar tickets.
    Will people really fork over thousands of dollars to see Glen Perkins throw an inning of middle relief in a meaningless (for the Twins, anyway) exhibition game? Could happen, I guess; sometimes I forget there are people who love baseball even more than I do.

    And only 85 losses would be a stunning victory for the front office, given that no team in over 70 years has lost fewer than 93 when bringing back a manager with a three-year record as bad as Gardy's. Probably better off hoping for the high draft pick anyway.

  14. #114
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    My $150 - $200 was meant to be an exageration. However posting fees are not counted toward luxury tax, and whatever the final posting fee is it will be more than Ryan will spend. With the Yankees, Bosox, Dodgers and Rangers in the mix, it will be well north of Darvish's $51 million +. The most we've spent for a posting fee is the $5 million we paid for Nishi. We came in second for Iwakuma to the A's who paid $19 million to negotiate.
    Last edited by ScottyB; 10-11-2013 at 11:38 AM.

  15. #115
    I would be surprised if the posting fee is higher than Darvish's.

    The Yankees have been trying to decrease payroll and need to save money to secure Cano as Nick pointed out.

    The Red Sox have a full rotation through the 2014 season which would make me wonder why they would post over 50 million to sign a 6th starter when that money could be spent elsewhere. Although everyone knows there is no such thing as too much SP.

    The Dodgers are a bit of a wild card. They have shown that there isn't really a cap on their roster payroll. However, they are likely going to need to fork out around an 8 year $225 million deal to sign Kershaw after next season. They do have two open rotation spots though behind Kershaw, Grienke and Ryu so who knows how high they would go here?

    The Rangers could also possibly go after Tanaka as they are in need of another starter. They have expressed wanting to bring back Colby Lewis which would be a low risk high reward signing coming off TJ surgery (one I wouldn't mind seeing the Twins pursue too). I could see them bidding highly for Tanaka as they had success with the posting for Yu Darvish.

    Ultimately the question I find interesting is this - Will everyone post higher based on the number it required to get Darvish? Or does the highest bidder come back down to earth because the next closest bid after the Rangers was way less than the posting fee that the Rangers paid to sign Darvish.

  16. #116
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    Again with the argument that you don't add players unless they can get you to 90 wins.....you add 1 good/great player a year in FA for a few years, you are that much closer. I don't get this argument at all.

    On Tanaka, I think that a big market team will post something like $75MM, and the Twins will post around $30MM. I'd go as high as $50-60MM if I was them, given the increase in revenue and what they've pocketed lately.....but I think they ultimately get outbid. I think they don't bid seriously on any Cuban also.
    Lighten up Francis....

  17. #117
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Again with the argument that you don't add players unless they can get you to 90 wins.....you add 1 good/great player a year in FA for a few years, you are that much closer. I don't get this argument at all.

    On Tanaka, I think that a big market team will post something like $75MM, and the Twins will post around $30MM. I'd go as high as $50-60MM if I was them, given the increase in revenue and what they've pocketed lately.....but I think they ultimately get outbid. I think they don't bid seriously on any Cuban also.
    Who is making that argument in this thread?

    In other threads people have made that argument but most of those other threads are about signing 30+ yr olds. The Twins shouldn't be investing a lot of money in players that will be finishing their contracts in their mid 30's. this team has to get younger. this thread however is about a 24 yr old which is exactly the type of player the Twins should target. the scary thing is that it might take 120M to sign him (including posting fee). That is A LOT OF money regardless of what you think the Twins payroll should be. Not only do you have agree to pay that much money for one FA but you also have to be very sure of someone that hasn't thrown an MLB pitch. The Nishioka concerns are silly because he wasn't a great player in Japan (he was a solid above average player) but Tanaka still hasn't thrown an MLB pitch.

  18. #118
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    Heh, I was reading two threads, and posted that first part in the wrong thread, sorry.
    Lighten up Francis....

  19. #119
    Senior Member All-Star Jim Crikket's Avatar
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    From Keith Law's chat today:

    Can you opine on Tanaka and if can potentially be as good as Darvish? Or do you not know enough about him to comment?
    Klaw (1:17 PM)


    He's not close to Darvish. No one from NPB is. The entire comparison is based on ethnicity/former league. Tanaka is more comparable to Kuroda.
    Klaw (1:17 PM)


    ...but no one wants to say that because it's not as exciting. Tanaka is more like a mid-rotation guy here, but he'll be paid like he's much better than that.

    Just wondering if that sort of evaluation makes anyone who has been suggesting the Twins be aggressive in the bidding process have second thoughts.
    I opine about the Twins and Kernels regularly at Knuckleballsblog.com while my alter ego, SD Buhr covers the Kernels for MetroSportsReport.com.

    ~You can get anything you want at Alice's Restaurant~

  20. #120
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    I'll take a Kurodo all day long...
    Just remember: You put the lime IN the coconut. Only THEN, can you drink it all up.

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