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Thread: The Doumit, Willingham trade challenge

  1. #1
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    The Doumit, Willingham trade challenge

    This tread has nothing to do with debating whether or not these aging has-been players should NOT be traded. It is about them BEING TRADED in the offseason.

    Now here are the parameters:

    1. No sane NL team would want these two players, so we are restricting this search to the AL

    2. These guys will be traded separately and with at most some middling prospect like Zach Jones, Tyler Duffey, or DJ Baxendale

    3. The return must be a pitcher for each.

    4. Said pitcher must be under 26 by April 1, 2014.

    5. Said pitcher must have a K/9 of 8.0 at least in EITHER or last season OR his career.

    I am excited to see who we can dig up. I am not counting on the Twins doing this because it is a woefully mismanaged organization, but this is for fun.

  2. #2
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    And if it isn't clear that such aging veterans at the end of their contracts aren't in need of moving BEFORE 2014, then I feel sorry for you. The Twins must get something for these guys and yet must also play younger players for the future. You know, this is to establish what is needed going forward instead of filling the roster with dead ends.

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    Under 26 with a K/9 over 8 is a pretty good pitcher - especially if they are in the majors. Doubt you could get such a return on the guys you listed.

    These are the guys I could find that roughly fit your categories did not look at career only 2013:
    Name Team k/9 ERA FIP Age
    Yu Darvish Rangers 11.89 2.83 3.28 26
    Chris Sale White Sox 9.49 3.07 3.17 24
    Derek Holland Rangers 7.99 3.42 3.44 26
    Chris Tillman Orioles 7.81 3.71 4.42 25
    Felix Doubront Red Sox 7.71 4.32 3.78 25
    A.J. Griffin Athletics 7.7 3.83 4.55 25
    Jose Quintana White Sox 7.38 3.51 3.82 24
    Rick Porcello Tigers 7.22 4.32 3.53 24

    Its possible I missed some, but it looks like you would have to sweeten the deal quite a bit to get players of this caliber

    Since you are trading a prospect, I imagine that you are not looking to go diamond ming like Ryan did in the Butera Deal. But the Blue Jays might be looking for catcher help and they have a good system. But Doumit w/o the prospects might be able to land such AA pitchers as:

    Deck Mcguire - ERA4.81 FIP: 3.58 - age 25 in AA
    Dennis Tepera - ERA 4.50 FIP: 4.38 age 24 in AA
    Last edited by clutterheart; 10-10-2013 at 02:33 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    This tread has nothing to do with debating whether or not these aging has-been players should NOT be traded. It is about them BEING TRADED in the offseason.

    Now here are the parameters:

    1. No sane NL team would want these two players, so we are restricting this search to the AL

    2. These guys will be traded separately and with at most some middling prospect like Zach Jones, Tyler Duffey, or DJ Baxendale

    3. The return must be a pitcher for each.

    4. Said pitcher must be under 26 by April 1, 2014.

    5. Said pitcher must have a K/9 of 8.0 at least in EITHER or last season OR his career.

    I am excited to see who we can dig up. I am not counting on the Twins doing this because it is a woefully mismanaged organization, but this is for fun.
    Honestly, I dont' see Ryan getting much value for either of these guys this offseason. I see them as deadline moves if they bounce back.

  5. #5
    Senior Member Triple-A
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    Ok, I'll play:

    Dellin Betances, New York Yankees, career K/9 10.1, 2013 K/9 11.6 (turns 26 a week before your April 1 deadline)
    John Lamb, KC Royals, career K/9 8.5, 2013 7.1, turns 24 in July
    Manny Banuelos, career K/9 9.1, 2013 n/a, turns 23 in March

    Betances has terrible control, Lamb fell apart in 2013, and Banuelos missed 2013 with at TJ.

    I think the 2013 K rate is a bad criterion. If they were good last year, Willingham and Doumit wouldn't net them. This exercise should be about finding guys who were very good a few years ago, and have fallen off track. Pitchers can take several years to put it all together at the highest levels, so finding guys with good lower minors track records should be the starting point.

  6. #6
    Drew Butera's pitching stats fit, but he is too old shoot.

  7. #7
    Senior Member Triple-A raindog's Avatar
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    I would trade Doumit for a bag of balls, and that's about all you could expect for him.

    Willingham can have more value during the season. At least, he's not going to lose value.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    And if it isn't clear that such aging veterans at the end of their contracts aren't in need of moving BEFORE 2014, then I feel sorry for you. The Twins must get something for these guys and yet must also play younger players for the future. You know, this is to establish what is needed going forward instead of filling the roster with dead ends.
    Doumit's place on the Twins team next year is entirely dependent on whether or not Mauer will catch. Doumit isn't a good catcher but I'm not willing to start the season with Pinto and Hermann as pretty much the only options if Mauer is moved to 1B. If Mauer is a catcher next season then Doumit needs to be gone but aiming high is getting a Miguel Sulbaran or Duke Welker level prospect for him. Doumit literally has zero trade value but somehow the Twins got a prospect for Butera.

    I also don't think Willingham should be traded unless there is a legitimately good prospect involved. His trade value is pretty low right now and a trade will most likely look like a complete salary dump for the sake of getting rid of him.

    And who exactly is willingham blocking at DH/OF? Arcia is the only player that really deserves playing time and even he could use some time in AAA next season. I'm definitely not okay with starting the season with Parmelee as a starter and have a bunch of Clete thomas's and Wilkin Ramirez's as plan B in case he fails. And there still isn't a good DH option which is willy's best position.

  9. #9
    Super Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Concur with Kab. I don't understand the obsession with getting everyone with any history of major league success off the team.
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

  10. #10
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post

    Now here are the parameters:


    2. These guys will be traded separately and with at most some middling prospect like Zach Jones, Tyler Duffey, or DJ Baxendale

    3. The return must be a pitcher for each.

    4. Said pitcher must be under 26 by April 1, 2014.

    5. Said pitcher must have a K/9 of 8.0 at least in EITHER or last season OR his career.

    I am excited to see who we can dig up. I am not counting on the Twins doing this because it is a woefully mismanaged organization, but this is for fun.
    I suggest we dig up the following:

    Baxendale, 22, career 7.6 K/9
    Duffey, 22, career 7.6 K/9
    z. Jones, 22, career 12.6 K/9
    -----
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    twitter: @thrylos98

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    Doumit's place on the Twins team next year is entirely dependent on whether or not Mauer will catch. Doumit isn't a good catcher but I'm not willing to start the season with Pinto and Hermann as pretty much the only options if Mauer is moved to 1B. If Mauer is a catcher next season then Doumit needs to be gone but aiming high is getting a Miguel Sulbaran or Duke Welker level prospect for him. Doumit literally has zero trade value but somehow the Twins got a prospect for Butera.

    I also don't think Willingham should be traded unless there is a legitimately good prospect involved. His trade value is pretty low right now and a trade will most likely look like a complete salary dump for the sake of getting rid of him.

    And who exactly is willingham blocking at DH/OF? Arcia is the only player that really deserves playing time and even he could use some time in AAA next season. I'm definitely not okay with starting the season with Parmelee as a starter and have a bunch of Clete thomas's and Wilkin Ramirez's as plan B in case he fails. And there still isn't a good DH option which is willy's best position.
    This post is exactly right. Willingham can easily improve his trade value by having a few healthy months to start the season and he isn't blocking anyone. Trading now would be a mistake.

    Frankly, the only two Twins that have strong trade value right now would be Perkins and possibly Dozier. (Burton and Fein might have some ok value as well). I'd much rather Ryan works the phones to see what he can get for Perkins this offseason.

  12. #12
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Boom Boom's Avatar
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    I'd trade Doumit for whatever I could get. I get that Mauer's future as a catcher is in doubt but I honestly think that a Pinto/Herrmann combo could give the Twins at least as much offensive production as Doumit and better defense.

    Willingham... I'd hold on to just in case he has a good first half. The Twins' recent history of holding on to guys to see if they can reestablish some trade value doesn't make me very optimistic about it, though.

  13. #13
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    Trading either of them only makes sense right now if you are trading them for someone more overpaid. You aren't going to get a great young pitcher that is overpaid.

    If you stretch the requirements, though....I think an NL team still might want them, and might trade an overpaid player in return. Pittsburgh needs offense. They could use corner OFs and backup catchers and first basement. They have defensively strong options there already, and could use bench bats for pinch hitting too.

    Wandy Rodriguez is expected to pick up his $13 million option there, and Pittsburgh might consider him expendible. He's not under 26, nor has a K rate of 8, of course, but that is an insane return. But if he bounces back this year, his track record is good enough that he could garner a nice prospect like that at the trade deadline. Or else he would be fairly likely get a qualifier offer, and return the Twins a high draft pick which could be a pitcher, who would be under 26 and might have a good K rate.

  14. #14
    Senior Member Double-A Wookiee of the Year's Avatar
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    I'm going to break all the rules.

    What about trading Ryan Doumit to the Washington Nationals for Danny Espinosa (2B/SS)? Espinosa had a terrible year, so bad he doesn't seem to be in the Nats' future plans anymore (they were shopping him in August), and his value could be low enough that Doumit might net him while being a good buy-low candidate. The Nationals could use Doumit as a back-up or even third catcher/bench bat (given Ramos' injury history, it could be good insurance to have), and there's even some interest in the Nationals online community.

    For the Twins, we know Florimon can't be a long-term answer at SS. Espinosa is an above average defensive shortstop (his natural position) with the potential for 20-20 numbers, under team control through 2016, and his versatility in playing 2B suggests he could be a stopgap at 3B pre-Sano, too. Maybe he never ends up making his way back to the majors, but that's why you might be able to get him for Doumit.

    Regarding Willingham, I agree with kab21, gunnarthor, and Boom Boom. He's not really blocking anyone, and his trade value is so low right now compared to where it could be that even if there's only a 25% chance he has a good enough first half to increase his value, you might as well take that chance.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Wookiee of the Year View Post
    I'm going to break all the rules.

    What about trading Ryan Doumit to the Washington Nationals for Danny Espinosa (2B/SS)? Espinosa had a terrible year, so bad he doesn't seem to be in the Nats' future plans anymore (they were shopping him in August), and his value could be low enough that Doumit might net him while being a good buy-low candidate. The Nationals could use Doumit as a back-up or even third catcher/bench bat (given Ramos' injury history, it could be good insurance to have), and there's even some interest in the Nationals online community.
    I would be in favor of this trade. I think Espinosa would be a good fit with the Twins. I doubt Nats GM would make trade straight up--we would probably have to throw one of our minor league hitters (DJ Hicks??) in.

  16. #16
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    I don't care if you break the rules, of course. I wasn't referring to pitchers in the majors. I like the names actually mentioned, including Espinosa.

    It seems to me that holding onto these two is about winning a couple more games than otherwise. I am more concerned about winning many more games after 2014. This is done by acquiring any talent whatsoever to plug into the system and also by giving time in 2014 to actual players who will be around after 2014.

  17. #17
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Basically I was thinking about A+ or so pitchers who strike out a lot of guys (and likely walk a lot, diminishing their value at the moment).

  18. #18
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    I suggest we dig up the following:

    Baxendale, 22, career 7.6 K/9
    Duffey, 22, career 7.6 K/9
    z. Jones, 22, career 12.6 K/9
    Well those equivalents in other organizations would be potential targets. Adding more of those guys doesn't seem bad to me, clearly. I am dubious about more than one of these guys actually emerging, so if we can get two more of them that would increase the odds.

    By "digging them up" what do you mean? None of these three gets past AA this year.

  19. #19
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AM. View Post
    Ok, I'll play:

    Dellin Betances, New York Yankees, career K/9 10.1, 2013 K/9 11.6 (turns 26 a week before your April 1 deadline)
    John Lamb, KC Royals, career K/9 8.5, 2013 7.1, turns 24 in July
    Manny Banuelos, career K/9 9.1, 2013 n/a, turns 23 in March

    Betances has terrible control, Lamb fell apart in 2013, and Banuelos missed 2013 with at TJ.

    I think the 2013 K rate is a bad criterion. If they were good last year, Willingham and Doumit wouldn't net them. This exercise should be about finding guys who were very good a few years ago, and have fallen off track. Pitchers can take several years to put it all together at the highest levels, so finding guys with good lower minors track records should be the starting point.
    Thanks for playing! Lamb is exactly the kind of pitcher I am talking about, though with good control. He is 14th on the Royals MLB.com pipeline list.

  20. #20
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    Concur with Kab. I don't understand the obsession with getting everyone with any history of major league success off the team.
    Are you in favor of keeping Willingham and Doumit on the team after 2014?

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