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Thread: The model organization to emulate?

  1. #41
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    I believe the days where some clubs are vastly superior at drafting and developing MLB talent are pretty much over, or at least waning to the point of being a negligible advantage. The Twins ned to emulate clubs who do the best job of MANAGING the assets they deveop. They're especially weak with the selling of assets at more advantageous times.

  2. #42
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer biggentleben's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
    Please name all the MLB clubs who have produced a larger number of MLB players than the Twins over the last 15 years, or whatever reasonable time period you might choose. I agree with you that finding talent lower in the draft is not (totally) luck, but you will fail to find evidence that the Twins are, as you sy, pathetic in this regard. The facts suggest the complete opposite.
    Here is an article I wrote this summer that's a bit Braves-focused, but it reviews the drafting of every team, and there are some that are simply better than others and some that are poor.
    Staff Writer for Tomahawktake.com, come check it out!

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
    . They're especially weak with the selling of assets at more advantageous times.
    I'm not really sure that's true, or at least it's true of many other orgs. Clearly, they traded Span and Revere at a good time last year. I know some people think "they should have traded JD Durbin when his stock was high" but I think all teams have that problem. Atlanta should've traded Hanson before his arm fell off. Angels should have traded Wood before he came to the majors. I think, generally, Terry Ryan has done a decent job of trading players for higher value than you'd have generally guessed. Sometimes it's awesome - AJ trade - sometimes it's just getting something for a simple asset - Butera trade, Liriano trade, Morneau trade.

    One semi valid complaint I've read is that Ryan won't make the "win-now" trade to put the team over the top. I'm not 100% sure that's a valid complaint since those Twins teams had payroll issues and in 2006 the Nats turned down Baker, Slowey + prospect for a two month rental of Soriano. Smith was clearly willing to do those types of trades.

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by biggentleben View Post
    Here is an article I wrote this summer that's a bit Braves-focused, but it reviews the drafting of every team, and there are some that are simply better than others and some that are poor.
    Not sure the 2008-2012 drafts would be ideal. First, Ryan/Radcliff's last draft was 2007. Smith/Johnson ran 2008-2011 and Ryan/Radcliff/Johnson came back in 2012-13. But it's also not a lot of time for players - esp HS kids - to make the majors (or any impact). The Twins 2012 draft looks fantastic right now and Hicks (08) is just now making it to the majors.

  5. #45
    Senior Member All-Star Badsmerf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by biggentleben View Post
    Here is an article I wrote this summer that's a bit Braves-focused, but it reviews the drafting of every team, and there are some that are simply better than others and some that are poor.
    Ben, could you go further back? I'd like to see the results of this going further back. Starting in 2000 would be a good mark. That would even include Mauer to give the Twins a boost. I'm still guessing it wont help them much.
    Do or do not. There is no try.

  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Badsmerf View Post
    Ben, could you go further back? I'd like to see the results of this going further back. Starting in 2000 would be a good mark. That would even include Mauer to give the Twins a boost. I'm still guessing it wont help them much.
    I did a quick look at the 10 years 98-07 drafts and the Twins totaled about 175 WAR or 17.5/per draft. I was going to do it for other teams but the problem is a lot of guys get drafted by two different orgs. I knew not to give the Twins credit for Malholm, Alonzo or Vargas but i wouldn't know that in the White Sox org, for instance. I'm also not sure how much WAR credit should we give? Do I use Kubel's career total of 4.8 or his Twins total of 4.6 (Kubel has not been good by WAR since he left us). The second problem is that WAR, in SSS, can be pretty bad. Guys who were up here for 10 days can have a -.8 career WAR. Anyhow, my guess is that, from 98-07, the Twins were more or less good.

    A different way of looking at it would be by WAR to pick comparison. For example, the 05 draft the Twins picked 25th so you'd expect that the person they picked wouldn't be as good as most of those picked ahead. Garza's WAR total would be good enough to be re-picked at #10. Not sure how it'd work the other way. Adam Johnson was picked #2 in a pretty ****ty draft group. His -1.1 WAR is 18th "best" of that first round. (#2 is Adrian Gonzalez who was actual drafted #1 but Chase Utley was the steal of that draft, at #15).

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
    Please name all the MLB clubs who have produced a larger number of MLB players than the Twins over the last 15 years, or whatever reasonable time period you might choose. I agree with you that finding talent lower in the draft is not (totally) luck, but you will fail to find evidence that the Twins are, as you sy, pathetic in this regard. The facts suggest the complete opposite.
    To support your point, and to name those 7 teams.

    I did a query of teams during Terry Ryan's tenure of drafting players, 1995-2007 for those of you keeping track at home.

    Anyone wanna guess which team had the most players drafted to make at least an appearance in the Major Leagues during that time?

    Table:


    Note: I didn't include WAR as a lot of times WAR is accumulated with other teams or in cases where team drafts the same player twice (Andre Ethier, Athletics) or he's drafted by two different teams (Jason Varitek,Twins & Mariners) or a team drafts him, he doesn't do anything, and becomes a stud somewhere else (Josh Hamilton, Tampa Bay -> Rangers). Thus, it was only based on a team picking a player and that guy made it to the bigs.

    I also choose from 1995 to 2007 for two reasons. One, Terry Ryan, and two, because most drafts from 2009 and more recent aren't enough time for the 'average' player to develop into a MLB player. College players usually take 2-4 years, while HS players usually take 4-5 years.
    Last edited by twinsfan34; 10-12-2013 at 05:29 PM.

  8. #48
    I found this in and article about Micheal Wachas success this year on mlb.com:
    That is what is known as dominance. Well, at least that's what most people not named Wacha would call it.
    "I wouldn't say that," the rookie said. "I just go out there and try to pitch to contact."
    He would of been the perfect Twin! The 8 strikeouts per game might be a bit fancy for us though.

  9. #49
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer biggentleben's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    Not sure the 2008-2012 drafts would be ideal. First, Ryan/Radcliff's last draft was 2007. Smith/Johnson ran 2008-2011 and Ryan/Radcliff/Johnson came back in 2012-13. But it's also not a lot of time for players - esp HS kids - to make the majors (or any impact). The Twins 2012 draft looks fantastic right now and Hicks (08) is just now making it to the majors.
    It was simply a 5 year mark, the time that a high school player hitting one level at a time would hit the majors (Rookie, low-A, high-A, AA, AAA). A number don't move at that pace, I realize, so I planned on expanding it this offseason, but I haven't gotten to that yet.
    Staff Writer for Tomahawktake.com, come check it out!

  10. #50
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer biggentleben's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Badsmerf View Post
    Ben, could you go further back? I'd like to see the results of this going further back. Starting in 2000 would be a good mark. That would even include Mauer to give the Twins a boost. I'm still guessing it wont help them much.
    I do plan on expanding it this offseason, but I haven't gotten to it yet.
    Staff Writer for Tomahawktake.com, come check it out!

  11. #51
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    It gets kind of tricky on how you evaluate a draft over time. Total number of players drafted that make it to the majors. From 92 to 2007 draft the Twins have selected 116. Signed only 76 of them. 22 of them had a career bwar greater than 5. The As 110/90/23. Houston at the low end 93/65/10. So what is a standard to judge drafting. Career totals for WAR regardless of team I think is valid. What happens afterwards is not the result of your drafting. Do you include the cup of coffe players? There are an awful lot of Slamas out there. They got a game or two. There are a lot of players pitched less than 20 innings or had less than 50 at bats. They made it. Might have been a September call up when rosters were expanded. Might not. Generally they have slightly negative to slightly positive War. So what sort of quality are you looking for to call a team good at drafting?
    Last edited by old nurse; 10-13-2013 at 05:52 PM.

  12. #52
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    If the looksee is to determine if Ryan is any good at judging talent, he started being scouting director in 1986

  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    If the looksee is to determine if Ryan is any good at judging talent, he started being scouting director in 1986
    He was only Director of Scouting from 1987 to 1991 per Baseball America.

    However, he was GM starting in 1995 until 2007. Can't really say he wasn't 'responsible' while in that position versus being Director of Scouting. And

    I wonder how much 'pull' certain scouts get or how they get graded. They likely all are pulling for 'their guys' to get drafted. Was an interesting read to read about the scout for the Angels who had to fight and plea for the Angels to even take Trout with the 2nd pick of the 1st round that year.

    Mike Radcliffe was Scouting Director from 1994-2007.

    A list of Minnesota Twins Scouting Directors over the years.

  14. #54
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    I admit, I don't know what to think about the fact that most of the upper management for the Twins has been in place for 20+ years.

    A little scared as they might not be caught in their ways. But, maybe they're good delegators and good at finding capable people?

    Winning seasons, playoff appearances, World Series Championships, All-Stars (above the automatic one per year), MVP's, Cy Young's, etc. I wonder how they'd fare.

    Here's a rundown of the Twins Organization over the years:

    Bill Smith,1986-2011. 26 years.
    Rob Antony, 1996-Present. 18 years.
    Mike Radcliffe, 1994-Present. 20 years.
    Terry Ryan, 1987-Present. 27 years.
    Jim Rantz, 1986-Present. 28 years.
    Tom Kelly, 1986-Present. 28 years.


    The guy I'd like to know more about is Jack Goin. He was hired in 2012. He's the Director of Baseball Research.

  15. #55

  16. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by JB_Iowa View Post
    Wacha, Lynn, and Miller wouldn't be going anywhere
    You have 3 veterans Westbrook, Carpenter and Wainwright
    You also have Kelly, Lyon and Garcia that start.
    You have Martinez in AAA rated highly.
    That is 10 starters.
    Not to mention Whitting, Gast or even Addington might be better than any starters in AAA for the Twins.
    I know a few have had injuries, but that is still riches.
    What would it take to pry one away?

  17. #57
    What I respect about the Cardinals is they were willing to let their franchise player walk rather than sign him to a franchise crippling contract. Now Pujols is in a Mauer-like decline and the Cardinals look like geniuses.

  18. #58
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Oldgoat_MN's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marta Shearing View Post
    What I respect about the Cardinals is they were willing to let their franchise player walk rather than sign him to a franchise crippling contract. Now Pujols is in a Mauer-like decline and the Cardinals look like geniuses.
    Um, Mauer hit .324 this year with an .880 OPS before being sidelined with an injury.
    Over 90% of MLB players wish they were suffering such a decline.
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  19. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldgoat_MN View Post
    Um, Mauer hit .324 this year with an .880 OPS before being sidelined with an injury.
    Over 90% of MLB players wish they were suffering such a decline.
    Exactly! We have enough legitimate reasons to be 'negative' (or, more precisely, realistic in our views) after enduring 3 seasons in a row of at least 96 losses, we don't need to make up things to be negative about.

    and I wouldn't count out Pujols either...
    Last edited by ThePuck; 10-19-2013 at 01:30 PM.
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  20. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    and I wouldn't count out Pujols either...
    Concur.
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