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Thread: This years Revere/Span trade...

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    This years Revere/Span trade...

    Last off season Ryan dipped his toes in the SP FA pool and found the water much too cold for his tight pockets. Pelfrey has been about as good as you could have expected an average at best SP coming back 10 months from TJ surgery. Correa wasn't nearly as bad as expected but still was at best a solid #5.

    Not liking the pickings or the prices Ryan decided to move a surplus to fill a hole moving Revere & Span for Meyer & May. Meyer could likely earn a rotation spot out of Spring Training but May struggled repeating AA and there are whispers he could be destined for a bullpen setup/closer understudy.

    Trade Brian Dozier for Braves LHP Sean Gilmartin.

    With the same scenario very liely playing out again this year, who are the candidates to be moved for SP? on the MLB roster the first obvious choice is 2B Brian Dozier. He is under team control for a few years cheaply but is also already 27 by next opening day. The Braves are desperate for a 2B to replace the mightlity struggling & expensive Uggla. Given Dozier's age your not going to get a Alex Meyer.

    The Braves Sean Gilmartin, a southpaw similar to Gibson in potential & stuff could be a fair value straight up. He is still just 23 and pitched in AAA last year.

    Any other candidates others view could be moved for SP?

    I could see Travis Harrison as a possibilty being blocked by uber prospect Miguel Sano at 3B. Maybe Brandon Beachy could be available if the Twins added a B level prospect or 2 to the deal.
    Last edited by Trevor0333; 10-11-2013 at 05:00 AM.

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    I'm personally not a fan of Gilmartin. I only assume he gets hype because he's a lefty with good control. He doesn't strike many batters out and gives up way too many hits and runs. Two years in a row he has struggled at AAA. From my perspective, I don't see any scenario where this guy turns into a legit starting pitcher.

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    If the Twins are confident that Rosario can be the guy at 2B by mid-summer, I am all for maximizing on Dozier's value. Escobar can handle 2B for a while until Rosario comes up. Getting a solid to good pitcher for Dozier is a good get.

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    I like the idea of Dozier to Atlanta but I'd aim higher than Gilmartin, whose upside is a good Nick Blackburn. Probably aim for Wood (might be a reliever), Sims (A ball) or maybe Cody Martin (numbers better than his stuff) and go from there. But it looks like the two sides could easily make some kind of trade and have done so before (Diamond/Bullock).

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    If the Twins want to emulate the Braves, Cards, or As, they'd deal Dozier this offseason. I don't see it happening, though. I don't see a trade like last year's deals happening. Perkins would also be dealt, if you followed the A's.

    Now, I'd do the opposite, I'd trade for David Price.....
    Lighten up Francis....

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trevor0333 View Post

    Any other candidates others view could be moved for SP?

    I could see Travis Harrison as a possibilty being blocked by uber prospect Miguel Sano at 3B. Maybe Brandon Beachy could be available if the Twins added a B level prospect or 2 to the deal.
    Harrison is a nice sleeper prospect, I like him, but he doesn't really have value right now. If he was on another team, he'd be the add on a rebuilding team would like to sneak in but he can't headline a real trade at this point.

    Beachy had TJ surgery and then got hurt again. I don't think Atlanta would want to trade him while his value was that low.

    Perkins is obviously the other trade chip the FO has, if it wants to cash it.

    Other teams that could use an upgrade at second (just using fWAR as a quick and dirty value system) and might be going for it next year would be Toronto, A's, Nats and Royals. Nats might be committed to Rendon at second.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trevor0333 View Post
    Given Dozier's age your not going to get a Alex Meyer.
    Span was traded just before his 29th birthday, was a lot more expensive than Dozier, and projected to provide similar value to Dozier's just-completed 2013 season (discounting Span's flukey high defensive numbers from 2012 a bit!).

    Now, Span obviously had a longer track record, and thus there was more confidence in his projections going forward (although he did have some injury issues that Dozier has not yet had). But if scouts generally think Dozier's 2013 improvement will stick, he could fetch a top 100 prospect, no? Something better than Gilmartin, I would hope

    That said, if the Twins think Dozier's improvement will stick, they should probably hold onto him unless they are overwhelmed by an offer. Stockpiling pitching prospects is nice, but they do need SOME good players on this team! And counting on Rosario, Sano, Buxton, etc. years ahead of time probably isn't the wisest path. (An aside: that's why free agency looks so attractive. It can get you good players without having to give up any players of your own.)

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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    Span was traded just before his 29th birthday, was a lot more expensive than Dozier, and projected to provide similar value to Dozier's just-completed 2013 season (discounting Span's flukey high defensive numbers from 2012 a bit!).

    Now, Span obviously had a longer track record, and thus there was more confidence in his projections going forward (although he did have some injury issues that Dozier has not yet had). But if scouts generally think Dozier's 2013 improvement will stick, he could fetch a top 100 prospect, no? Something better than Gilmartin, I would hope

    That said, if the Twins think Dozier's improvement will stick, they should probably hold onto him unless they are overwhelmed by an offer. Stockpiling pitching prospects is nice, but they do need SOME good players on this team! And counting on Rosario, Sano, Buxton, etc. years ahead of time probably isn't the wisest path. (An aside: that's why free agency looks so attractive. It can get you good players without having to give up any players of your own.)
    What was flukey about Span's defensive numbers last year? His UZR this year and 2011 were better than 2012 and 2010 and 2012 are pretty close. Are you just talking DRS?
    Last edited by ThePuck; 10-11-2013 at 11:28 AM.
    Just remember: You put the lime IN the coconut. Only THEN, can you drink it all up.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Siehbiscuit View Post
    If the Twins are confident that Rosario can be the guy at 2B by mid-summer, I am all for maximizing on Dozier's value. Escobar can handle 2B for a while until Rosario comes up. Getting a solid to good pitcher for Dozier is a good get.
    The way to maximize Dozier's value is to keep him for another season and cross your fingers.

    Being above average for 2/3rds of a season is impressive but it's not enough to make another team offer up a player significant enough to make a difference.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    The way to maximize Dozier's value is to keep him for another season and cross your fingers.

    Being above average for 2/3rds of a season is impressive but it's not enough to make another team offer up a player significant enough to make a difference.
    I agree, though that has not been working in the Twins favor much recently. Hopefully Dozier is the exception, there definately is a high probability his AVG/OBP goes up. Of course it's just as likely his HR drop. If the power is legit though and his OBP gets back to his minor league levels, you're looking at a defensively solid 2B with a +.800 OPS under team control for four more years. That would fetch a pretty nice return I'd assume.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    I agree, though that has not been working in the Twins favor much recently. Hopefully Dozier is the exception, there definately is a high probability his AVG/OBP goes up. Of course it's just as likely his HR drop. If the power is legit though and his OBP gets back to his minor league levels, you're looking at a defensively solid 2B with a +.800 OPS under team control for four more years. That would fetch a pretty nice return I'd assume.
    Or we could just keep Dozier and trade Rosario who may fetch more than Dozier.
    Just remember: You put the lime IN the coconut. Only THEN, can you drink it all up.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    Or we could just keep Dozier and trade Rosario who may fetch more than Dozier.
    A more likely scenario, I think. I really hate the idea of trading Rosario but if the front office is confident in Dozier going forward, Eddie has more value to other teams right now (for good or bad, that's just how these things shake out sometimes).

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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    What was flukey about Span's defensive numbers last year? His UZR this year and 2011 were better than 2012 and 2010 and 2012 are pretty close. Are you just talking DRS?
    I was just looking at B-Ref, so yeah, DRS. I guess prorating his 2011 numbers gets close to 2012 too -- I forgot he missed half of 2011.

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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    I was just looking at B-Ref, so yeah, DRS. I guess prorating his 2011 numbers gets close to 2012 too -- I forgot he missed half of 2011.
    IMO, he's been an under-rated defender for a few years now...I don't believe 2012 was flukey at all. Again, IMO.
    Just remember: You put the lime IN the coconut. Only THEN, can you drink it all up.

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    I think it's not a bad idea to trade Dozier while he's hot. I don't think he'll be that great so if we can get a good pitching prospect for him pull the trigger. Rosario will be here in the summer ready to take over 2B. Until then.... Bernier?

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    Trading second basemen for starting pitchers almost always works out for the team getting the pitcher. Second basemen are nearly as fungible as relief pitchers.

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    Yes, let's take the ONE legit MI this team has developed in the last 10-15 years and let's trade him.

    If Rosario forces the issue then its a very good problem to have and you do something at that point.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    I like the idea of Dozier to Atlanta but I'd aim higher than Gilmartin, whose upside is a good Nick Blackburn. Probably aim for Wood (might be a reliever), Sims (A ball) or maybe Cody Martin (numbers better than his stuff) and go from there. But it looks like the two sides could easily make some kind of trade and have done so before (Diamond/Bullock).
    Of those, Martin is the only option, but no way you want to get Gilmartin right now. He is more than messed up right now in the head/windup/etc.
    Staff Writer for Tomahawktake.com, come check it out!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trevor0333 View Post
    Trade Brian Dozier for Braves LHP Sean Gilmartin.

    With the same scenario very liely playing out again this year, who are the candidates to be moved for SP? on the MLB roster the first obvious choice is 2B Brian Dozier. He is under team control for a few years cheaply but is also already 27 by next opening day. The Braves are desperate for a 2B to replace the mightlity struggling & expensive Uggla. Given Dozier's age your not going to get a Alex Meyer.

    The Braves Sean Gilmartin, a southpaw similar to Gibson in potential & stuff could be a fair value straight up. He is still just 23 and pitched in AAA last year.

    Any other candidates others view could be moved for SP?

    I could see Travis Harrison as a possibilty being blocked by uber prospect Miguel Sano at 3B. Maybe Brandon Beachy could be available if the Twins added a B level prospect or 2 to the deal.
    Some points as a Braves writer and fan:

    1. You don't want Gilmartin. Think a lefty Alex Wimmers at this point. He's messed up in his motion, in his release point, in his grips, in his footing, and in his head. He will have to be broken completely down and rebuilt to be of any value.

    2. The Braves aren't desperate to replace Uggla. They have options on hand to replace him in the short-term. In fact, one of the more intriguing hitters in AFL for the Braves is a guy who may be their 2B in 2014, Tommy La Stella. They have depth at the position within their own system, so they aren't going to offer much of value.

    3. Beachy is nearly untradeable. Unless the 3B thrown in the deal was actually Sano, Beachy wouldn't be mentioned, and as crazy as it sounds, you might still not get the front office to move Beachy at that point.

    4. All that said, Dozier's bat/flexibility/contract could intrigue the Braves for someone like a Cody Martin, David Hale, Aaron Northcraft, or someone like that. They also have a grouping of guys like Omar Poveda who would be akin to Scott Diamond in pitchability, but not a ton of stuff.
    Staff Writer for Tomahawktake.com, come check it out!

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    Until Rosario actually forces the issue, no decision needs to be made.

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