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Thread: This years Revere/Span trade...

  1. #41
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Honestly, I don't think Dozier is all that valuable right now. Yes, he was a very very good 2B the second half of the season, but teams are going to want to see that repeated for a full 2014 before they are willing to trade a top 100 prospect for him, and I don't blame them.

    As for the big trade this year, if Ryan trades anything for something of value, it will be relief pitchers. I fully expect one of Perkins, Fein, or Burton to not be wearing a Twins cap after winter meetings.

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    Or we could just keep Dozier and trade Rosario who may fetch more than Dozier.
    +1. IIRC, it seemed like the talk was that Rosario may end up as a corner OF'er? In any case, if the value is similar, I'd rather keep the sure thing this time.

  3. #43
    Here's a thought Twins should maybe trade Mauer at 30 for pitching my reason is he at peak of value as a player and Twins are several years away from competing again. By the time Twins are competing Mauer will be in decline and will be 33 year old player. The Twins could stock pile some good arms for the future. Lets face it I think Twins are at least 3 years away from competing the kids coming are going need time in majors. Pittsburg kids have taken at least three years to learn how compete and win at major league level. Were one to two years away before all these kids reach major league level. Unless Twins are ready to sign free agents now I think Twins will just waste Mauers value playing on non contending teams.

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    ...there is very little hope for a starting SS coming up through the farm system for 2-3 years.
    I think you're underselling Danny Santana quite a bit. While he isn't a top 100 prospect, but he was rated the best defensive SS in his league this season so he should have the defensive chops. He also has hit decently for a SS. He has a .712 career minor league OPS and the average major league SS's was .680. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that he could turn into an average hitting good fielding SS. At the very least we can hope right?

    Quote Originally Posted by ND-Fan View Post
    Here's a thought Twins should maybe trade Mauer...
    I advocated for that last offseason when it became obvious they weren't going to try and upgrade the roster, but that ship has sailed. I find it incredibly unlikely that any GM would be willing to take on his contract and return significant prospects (which would be required to justify it to the fans) for a catcher that is coming off of a serious brain injury. He could return to all-star catcher form, need to move to 1B or his career could be ended. There is no way to know right now. There is also the small problem of his full no-trade protection.

    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    As for the big trade this year, if Ryan trades anything for something of value, it will be relief pitchers. I fully expect one of Perkins, Fein, or Burton to not be wearing a Twins cap after winter meetings.
    While Perkins might have some value and could potentially return a nice prospect or two, Fien and Burton will have next to none. They didn't end the season particularly well, their overall stat lines are mediocre, and relievers are available to be signed every off season that don't require giving up prospects to acquire.

  5. #45
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Making the decision after a guy is bad, also makes the return lower....that's why any of these decisions carries some degree of risk.

    We do not know if teams think of Dozier as legit right now or not, yet people keep saying that it is clear that we somehow know what teams think...we have no idea what any team thinks about Brian Dozier. We do not know what Dozier could return in a trade.

    We do know that the Twins have a top minor league prospect at the position Dozier plays. We do know they have an insufficient number of SS, OF, and SP (and DH/1B). We also know they have few assets to trade right now. You can choose to keep Dozier, but that does not necessarily decrease the risk at all.
    It's possible that some team out there views Dozier as 100% legit... But it's unlikely.

    GMs aren't mentally impaired (well, most of them, anyway). If you watch a player all season and still have doubts about the guy, chances are so will everyone else in the league. It's not going out on much of a limb to say that Rosario's value is considerably higher than Dozier right now. The current state of MLB is prospect-crazy and Dozier has been an up-and-down prospect, he's 26 years old, and is coming off a breakout season that surprised nearly everyone.

    That doesn't mean you don't listen to offers about Dozier should someone approach you but it's extremely unlikely that anyone will offer real value for him at this point.

  6. #46
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Keep in mind also that Dozier ended 2013 with a .244/.312/.414 line. It looked a lot better to us because he had a better second half, because of the lineup he was in and because we're so starved for any good news.

    But ultimately, an outsider is going to look at that and not be as impressed.
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

  7. #47
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Oldgoat_MN's Avatar
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    I would like to point out that while Rosario probably has more trade value than Dozier at this point, his AA line was .284/.330/.412 (.742) in 313 PA.

    Excellent for 21 year old, but not actual evidence of a probable all-star.
    He needs more time to prove himself. Not that some team couldn't pay dearly for him, but I think it's unlikely.

    And I do not believe he will be in MLB mid-season 2014.
    Frankly, I don't believe that about Sano, either.
    Nor Buxton.
    I'm on a whiskey diet. I've lost 3 days already.

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldgoat_MN View Post
    I would like to point out that while Rosario probably has more trade value than Dozier at this point, his AA line was .284/.330/.412 (.742) in 313 PA.

    Excellent for 21 year old, but not actual evidence of a probable all-star.
    He needs more time to prove himself. Not that some team couldn't pay dearly for him, but I think it's unlikely.

    And I do not believe he will be in MLB mid-season 2014.
    Frankly, I don't believe that about Sano, either.
    Nor Buxton.

    that was a depressing end to your post......If Sano isn't up next year, I have no idea why anyone would go to a game.
    Lighten up Francis....

  9. #49
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldgoat_MN View Post
    I would like to point out that while Rosario probably has more trade value than Dozier at this point, his AA line was .284/.330/.412 (.742) in 313 PA.

    Excellent for 21 year old, but not actual evidence of a probable all-star.
    He needs more time to prove himself. Not that some team couldn't pay dearly for him, but I think it's unlikely.

    And I do not believe he will be in MLB mid-season 2014.
    Frankly, I don't believe that about Sano, either.
    Nor Buxton.
    .742 out of a 21 year old middle infielder in AA is very impressive, particularly when you see his .903 in A+ to start the season. Teams will still be very high on Rosario provided he can stay at second base. If he's an outfielder, his value plummets with those numbers.

    And unless something happens to Sano, it'd be shocking not to see him in Minnesota by mid-season. He posted an OPS over .900 as a 20 year old in AA. He'll be starting the season in AAA and unless he flounders badly, the Twins won't be able to justify keeping him down past June.

  10. #50
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    btw, I'm not saying Dozier would return anything, I'm only saying that I don't think we can state that he won't with such certainty that appears to be commonplace here.

    I'd rather somehow he work out and that Rosario work out.....and they somehow also find pitching, but I struggle to see how that happens if they don't deal one of them, if they can.
    Lighten up Francis....

  11. #51
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    This entire thread is a stretch as long as it is based around moving Dozier. Denard Span was a top of the order, high on-base guy with a very team friendly deal and he played a very good centerfield. Revere is a premium defensive centerfielder (minus a great arm) that the Phillies project to be a high average leadoff hitter that is only 24 years old. Dozier is going to be 27 next season and has two-thirds of a decent offensive season and a good one defensively at 2B. His upside isn't much more than we saw over the last half of the season and at his age won't fetch anywhere near as much as Revere did and most Twins fans were shooting holes into every flaw that Revere had.

    If the Twins are going to make a trade that will bring in substantial talent it will have to be moving Glen Perkins. He is in the Span category. He's one of the best at his position and his contract is very team friendly. Moving Perkins is the kind of move the A's and Rays would make right now. Selling when someone's value is at its peak. Havig a proven closer on a losing team is worthless. Move Perkins and get a young starter in A+ to AA ball, similar to Meyer last year. Nothing less than a top 50-60 talent.
    Last edited by Siehbiscuit; 10-15-2013 at 04:54 PM.

  12. #52
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    I'm all for trading Perkins, he throws 40-50 innings a year (or whatever), and his value to a bad team is low, super low. There has to be a GM out there that over values closers that would give up a legit player/prospect for him.
    Lighten up Francis....

  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    .742 out of a 21 year old middle infielder in AA is very impressive, particularly when you see his .903 in A+ to start the season. Teams will still be very high on Rosario provided he can stay at second base. If he's an outfielder, his value plummets with those numbers.

    And unless something happens to Sano, it'd be shocking not to see him in Minnesota by mid-season. He posted an OPS over .900 as a 20 year old in AA. He'll be starting the season in AAA and unless he flounders badly, the Twins won't be able to justify keeping him down past June.
    As I see it, the only way Sano doesn't come up is if he is under-performing AND the Twins by some miracle are in the playoff hunt. He'll get the call at some point next year if for no other reason than to get the fans talking about something other than the poor product on the field. That and Trevor Plouffe will surely find himself in the doghouse at some point again.

  14. #54
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Siehbiscuit View Post
    This entire thread is a stretch as long as it is based around moving Dozier. Denard Span was a top of the order, high on-base guy with a very team friendly deal and he played a very good centerfield. Revere is a premium defensive centerfielder (minus a great arm) that the Phillies project to be a high average leadoff hitter that is only 24 years old. Dozier is going to be 29 next season and has two-thirds of a decent offensive season and a good one defensively at 2B. His upside isn't much more than we saw over the last half of the season and at his age won't fetch anywhere near as much as Revere did and most Twins fans were shooting holes into every flaw that Revere had.
    Dozier will be 27 next season so he still has a little upside but yeah, most of this post is spot-on.

    If Dozier posts another good season in 2014, then most will view him as a solid complementary player (much like Span). But not yet.

  15. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    I'm all for trading Perkins, he throws 40-50 innings a year (or whatever), and his value to a bad team is low, super low. There has to be a GM out there that over values closers that would give up a legit player/prospect for him.
    Did Bill Smith find another job?
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  16. #56
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    This entire thread is a stretch as long as it is based around moving Dozier. Denard Span was a top of the order, high on-base guy with a very team friendly deal and he played a very good centerfield. Revere is a premium defensive centerfielder (minus a great arm) that the Phillies project to be a high average leadoff hitter that is only 24 years old. Dozier is going to be 27 next season and has two-thirds of a decent offensive season and a good one defensively at 2B. His upside isn't much more than we saw over the last half of the season and at his age won't fetch anywhere near as much as Revere did and most Twins fans were shooting holes into every flaw that Revere had.

    If the Twins are going to make a trade that will bring in substantial talent it will have to be moving Glen Perkins. He is in the Span category. He's one of the best at his position and his contract is very team friendly. Moving Perkins is the kind of move the A's and Rays would make right now. Selling when someone's value is at its peak. Havig a proven closer on a losing team is worthless. Move Perkins and get a young starter in A+ to AA ball, similar to Meyer last year. Nothing less than a top 50-60 talent.

  17. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by Siehbiscuit View Post
    This entire thread is a stretch as long as it is based around moving Dozier. Denard Span was a top of the order, high on-base guy with a very team friendly deal and he played a very good centerfield. Revere is a premium defensive centerfielder (minus a great arm) that the Phillies project to be a high average leadoff hitter that is only 24 years old. Dozier is going to be 27 next season and has two-thirds of a decent offensive season and a good one defensively at 2B. His upside isn't much more than we saw over the last half of the season and at his age won't fetch anywhere near as much as Revere did and most Twins fans were shooting holes into every flaw that Revere had.

    If the Twins are going to make a trade that will bring in substantial talent it will have to be moving Glen Perkins. He is in the Span category. He's one of the best at his position and his contract is very team friendly. Moving Perkins is the kind of move the A's and Rays would make right now. Selling when someone's value is at its peak. Havig a proven closer on a losing team is worthless. Move Perkins and get a young starter in A+ to AA ball, similar to Meyer last year. Nothing less than a top 50-60 talent.
    The Span thing isn't quite true either, though. Over his last 3 seasons with us, Span was a .334 OBP (and 94 OPS+) and avg less than 2 WAR/season. Obviously, the Nats hoped that injuries were the main cause of that. But sometimes teams make trades based on what they hope to see, not what they see.

    But I agree that Perkins has the potential to bring back a difference making pitcher. I'd listen on Dozier and probably take a May/Worley type deal but not a Sean Gilmartin deal. And if other teams don't want to give that up, let him play second again. That's not a bad outcome for us either.

  18. #58
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    .............
    Lighten up Francis....

  19. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    .742 out of a 21 year old middle infielder in AA is very impressive, particularly when you see his .903 in A+ to start the season. Teams will still be very high on Rosario provided he can stay at second base. If he's an outfielder, his value plummets with those numbers.
    Not trying to say it was awful. Certainly not what Sano or Buxton did when they advanced, But few do such things. Eddie will need to start in AA and show he can hit well at that level before moving on.

    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    .And unless something happens to Sano, it'd be shocking not to see him in Minnesota by mid-season. He posted an OPS over .900 as a 20 year old in AA. He'll be starting the season in AAA and unless he flounders badly, the Twins won't be able to justify keeping him down past June.
    Man, I hope you're right.
    I'm on a whiskey diet. I've lost 3 days already.

  20. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    I think you're underselling Danny Santana quite a bit. While he isn't a top 100 prospect, but he was rated the best defensive SS in his league this season so he should have the defensive chops. He also has hit decently for a SS. He has a .712 career minor league OPS and the average major league SS's was .680. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that he could turn into an average hitting good fielding SS. At the very least we can hope right?
    He's a better version of Florimon. Santana has poor plate discipline and I typically subtract off at least 50 pts of OPS of typical minor leaguers (unless very young or have scouting reports suggesting more potential). So I'm hoping that Santana hits for a .650 OPS and that's the kind of guy that you don't really want as a starting but can fill the position until something better is found.

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