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Thread: Sickels: Top 20 Twins prospects for 2014

  1. #41
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    By the way, Kepler definitely holding his own in the AFL.

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Don't Feed the Greed Guy View Post
    So, a LOOGY is not a prospect? This is not to say that Ibarra is an 'A' prospect, but how about a B-/C+ at least.

    Also, Ibarra faced 245 batters in 47 appearances last season, which means that he faced, on average, over five batters each game. Sounds more like a setup role than a LOOGY, IMHO.
    As good as Ibarra's 2013 season was, he has done little to distinguish himself the previous years. When you are 24 and starting the season at AA one season isn't enough to get you ranked.

    That said, I think we all hope that his 2013 season translates to the Twins in 2014, regardless of how he is viewed as a prospect!

  3. #43
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    Too bad May has really appeared to have stalled out at AA. Had he performed as well as Meyer the roatation culd be looking a lot brighter.

    I'm a little higher on Rosario too, I'd put him at B+.

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Don't Feed the Greed Guy View Post
    So, a LOOGY is not a prospect? This is not to say that Ibarra is an 'A' prospect, but how about a B-/C+ at least.

    Also, Ibarra faced 245 batters in 47 appearances last season, which means that he faced, on average, over five batters each game. Sounds more like a setup role than a LOOGY, IMHO.
    B-/C+ seems high based on how Sickles grades
    Who would you move down on this list?

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by clutterheart View Post
    B-/C+ seems high based on how Sickles grades
    Who would you move down on this list?
    I would say a LOOGY is basically a lefty specialist, if their ceiling is only being able to get lefties out I wouldnt qualify them much of a prospect.

  6. #46
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Joe A. Preusser's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    Well we will have to disagree on just how much difference a year makes when both are age appropriate for the league and how much statistics matter at RK ball, but that really wasn't my point. I want to know what the scouts see differently (as I said scouting reports matter more in the lower minors than statistics) between the three pitchers. Really the big thing here is we don't have much to go on for Jorge or Gonsalves at this point (or Thorpe outside of Sickels.)
    I added height until I was almost 21, and was still adding upper body bulk until 23. Not sure if this was a usual growth pattern or not, but I've always thought that most guys don't get their adult body until 23-24. 17 to 18 seems like it wouldn't make that much difference, although of course everyone is different.

  7. #47
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Don't Feed the Greed Guy View Post
    So, a LOOGY is not a prospect? This is not to say that Ibarra is an 'A' prospect, but how about a B-/C+ at least.

    Also, Ibarra faced 245 batters in 47 appearances last season, which means that he faced, on average, over five batters each game. Sounds more like a setup role than a LOOGY, IMHO.
    By their very definition and what they contribute to a MLB team, no, a LOOGY is not a prospect.

    If the guy is dominant enough to be an 8th or 9th inning guy, he's a prospect... But you're kinda shooting yourself in the foot with the LOOGY label, which means he won't pitch more than ~40 innings a season.

  8. #48
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    I understand the value that the bullpen has on an MLB team. But Ibarra is a reliever, doesn't strike out a lot and walks too many. He can have a role with the Twins, and I hope he can. Just doesn't transfer into prospect rankings well.

  9. #49
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    As for Thorpe, it'll be interesting to see where he is in a year. But, yeah, when you're left-handed, tall and now hit 95 at age 17, it's going to vault you up the prospect rankings regardless of what the numbers say.

  10. #50
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    This whole Ibarra argument is about a 24 yr old RP'er that typically walks 4+ batter in 9 innings?

    If you are a relief pitcher, kind of old and walk 4 every 9 innings then you better be striking out 15/9 in the minors. He had a nice ERA but I'm not sure if he is in my top 10 relief pitchers in the org.

  11. #51
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    I see 2014 as a chance for Ibarra to get to his career numbers and have a good overall season in AAA, earning a September callup.

    There probably should be a distinction between:

    true prospects
    minor leaguers who have something to contribute, potentially, in MLB
    minor leaguers who don't have something to contribut, potentially, in MLB

    There is some overlap in between those first two groups in terms of who actually gets to the big leagues. Ibarra is more likely to get a cup of coffee than at least one top 20 prospect in the Twins system, for instance.

  12. #52
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Also, Ibarra somewhat followed the Aaron Hicks path . . . struggles first year after promotion, repeats, does well.

  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe A. Preusser View Post
    I added height until I was almost 21, and was still adding upper body bulk until 23. Not sure if this was a usual growth pattern or not, but I've always thought that most guys don't get their adult body until 23-24. 17 to 18 seems like it wouldn't make that much difference, although of course everyone is different.
    But young pro athletes are often the "early peakers" in size, particularly height -- that's how they get to be the young pro athletes! I don't know anything about it really, but I suspect they are less likely to grow late (particularly height and any natural muscle/weight).

    I was just skimming through past GCL seasons for Thorpe comparables, and I noticed that Clayton Kershaw put up similar stats in that league at age 18. But Kershaw was already 6'3" and 215 lbs at that point, and he's basically the same size now at age 25.

  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    By the way, Kepler definitely holding his own in the AFL.
    Yes. Small sample size and all, but it's encouraging to see him 3-9 against both lefties and righties, with zero Ks against LHP too. He looked pretty bad against LHP this year, and still hasn't shown much power against them in the minor league career.

  15. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    I see 2014 as a chance for Ibarra to get to his career numbers and have a good overall season in AAA, earning a September callup.

    There probably should be a distinction between:

    true prospects
    minor leaguers who have something to contribute, potentially, in MLB
    minor leaguers who don't have something to contribut, potentially, in MLB

    There is some overlap in between those first two groups in terms of who actually gets to the big leagues. Ibarra is more likely to get a cup of coffee than at least one top 20 prospect in the Twins system, for instance.
    I have no idea what you are talking about in the first paragraph. His K and BB rates have been consistent (mediocre) throughout the minors. Even if he gets a cup of coffee his upside is so low that he shouldn't rank anywhere near a top 20 list.

  16. #56
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    Mediocre relief pitchers are easily acquired by a club. The whole point of a prospect is to provide something that can't just be picked up cheaply elsewhere.

  17. #57
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    Sickels has Duke Welker in the "Others to Watch" group. I might put him in there for his awesome name alone, but his age and numbers suggest Jim Hoey lite, no? (Hoey was on the opposite end of the awesome name spectrum, however)

  18. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    Sickels has Duke Welker in the "Others to Watch" group. I might put him in there for his awesome name alone, but his age and numbers suggest Jim Hoey lite, no? (Hoey was on the opposite end of the awesome name spectrum, however)
    He's a guy to watch since he's a hard thrower and sometimes those guys just click at some point in the majors and become really good. Or they just suck like Hoey. I think he falls into the 2nd category and I'm not very interested.

  19. #59
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Remember also that Ibarra can again become a minor league free agent after the season. Last year, he signed quickly to return. This year, he may have some other options, so if the Twins want to keep him, they may have to put him on the 40 man roster before the World Series is over.

    I like Ibarra. Really liked what I saw from him in (admittedly) one start in Beloit several years ago. Not sure if he's a 40 man roster guy though.

  20. #60
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    I have no idea what you are talking about in the first paragraph. His K and BB rates have been consistent (mediocre) throughout the minors. Even if he gets a cup of coffee his upside is so low that he shouldn't rank anywhere near a top 20 list.
    2013 was a very good year for him. His best. What I mean is that in Rochester, his K rate dropped and his BB rate went up a bit. Rochester: 6.9/4.4, career: 7.8/3.9. If his 2013 H/9 numbers are not an anomaly and he maintains something similar, a return to his 7.8/3.9 K/BB makes him a more ideal candidate for adding to the 40-man and being a potential contributor at the end of next season.

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