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Thread: Robinson Cano

  1. #21
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    The Cardinals and Red Sox might disagree.

    Look at what the Tigers have done in FA since 2010.

    2010 offseason: VMart
    2011: Prince
    2012: Anibal
    2013: Cano?

    I don't think any rebuild can keep pace with a rival who signs a top FA per offseason.

    If the Tigers become suitors for Cano, and get him, that could easily push back the Twins window to 2020 or later.
    Mike Illitch won't live forever (although it may seem like some of the contracts signed under his ownership may last that long).

    There have been articles floating around that the Tigers may see some retrenchment over the next few years.

    It would be a mistake for the Twins to spend huge money just to keep the Tigers from getting Cano.

    The Twins need to focus their money on how to improve the Twins.

  2. #22
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    If the Twins want to spend that kind of money, go out and get Tanaka AND Abreau. I like Cano, but 2B is not nearly the pressing need that SP or a good mashing 1B is.

  3. #23
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    Jeter has been good, but I don't trust most middle infielder to age well. He's been extremely durable, but that also means he's played in a lot of games, and he's going to be 31 next week. I think if you're lucky you'll end up getting what you pay for the first 3 years, but then you're going to be on the hook for five more after that.

    I have a feeling that [(Cano + gray hairs) - Yankee Stadium] = (early peak + quick decline).

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by JB_Iowa View Post
    That's irrelevant because in fact they HAVE the higher payrolls.
    Exactly...that was my whole point...the percentage of payroll for their highest paid player is irrelevant compared to percentage of payroll for our highest paid player. Those teams are on a different spending level, so why even mention them in the first place to make your point? How about instead of looking at the top paid player percentage of payroll, look at top 3 players and the total percentage of payroll? Cause our top paid guy makes 23, then our next guy makes 7 then our next guy makes around 5. That could be like 33% of what payroll should be.

    On a side note, I wonder how incoming revenue (affecting available payroll) would be affected if Mauer hadn't signed here? I wonder how much of his salary is paid by the fact he's on the team...in tickets sales (and corresponding parking, concessions), merchandise, etc?

    BTW, I'm not in the sign Cano lane...I'm way away from that lane.
    Just remember: You put the lime IN the coconut. Only THEN, can you drink it all up.

  5. #25
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JB_Iowa View Post
    It would be a mistake for the Twins to spend huge money just to keep the Tigers from getting Cano.
    Its only a mistake if you think Cano is a poor player. Obviously he's not, he's a terrific player.

    If Cano is only worth 18 WARs over the next 6 years (he could easily be worth that many in the next 3), that is a +6 WAR swing in favor of the team that gets him, if the two suitors share a division. That's huge.

    The Twins should absolutely factor the other FA suitors into their decisionmaking.

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    If the Tigers become suitors for Cano, and get him, that could easily push back the Twins window to 2020 or later.
    I think it may be just the opposite, after all, the guys they are signing are already at their peak. In four years the Tigers would be the 2013 Yankees. They'd have huge unmovable contracts on five 34-35 year-olds who will undoubtedly be on the decline. And with those body types, a 35-year-old Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera might be a scary proposition.

  7. #27
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    I think it may be just the opposite, after all, the guys they are signing are already at their peak. In four years the Tigers would be the 2013 Yankees. They'd have huge unmovable contracts on five 34-35 year-olds who will undoubtedly be on the decline. And with those body types, a 35-year-old Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera might be a scary proposition.
    Question: What if Illitch doesn't die?

  8. #28
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    This would be a more interesting hypothetical in 2-3 years when the Twins at least the structure of a playoff team in place. Cano would make the team better but there are holes literally everywhere on the team and they are mostly filled with terrible players. There's only so much one player can do and then he's 35ish and headed to a long, expensive decline. I will predict a 9 yr 225M contract.

    Of course I'm an optimist that several of Arcia, Sano, Buxton, Rosario and Meyer can become avg or better players (and one or two studs) in a couple of seasons and the Twins will find a few other avg or better players in FA. And continue to have a strong system to continue feeding the Twins. At that point you are only filling a couple of holes and dropping big money could put the team over the top.

    If I was spending insane money (for the Twins) it would be 100ish/6yrs (includes posting fee) on 24 yr old Tanaka and go after a Nick Swisher type signing to take some pressure off of the prospects when called up.

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    Question: What if Illitch doesn't die?
    Mike Ilitch of the Clan Ilitch? :-)
    Just remember: You put the lime IN the coconut. Only THEN, can you drink it all up.

  10. #30
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    Question: What if Illitch doesn't die?
    Then they'll continue to spend $184m (or more with next year's added TV $$$) trying to win a championship for an Octogenarian.

    They have money coming off the books after this year (Peralta, Benoit, Infante) and next year (VMart, Torii) and they'll have some needs to fill so I could see them going after Cano.

    They'll also have about $90m tied up in Prince, Verlander, Miggy and Sanchez through 2015 (the end of Miggy's contract) which still leaves them a generous amount for other parts (although Scherzer, Fister and Porcello will continue to get more expensive).

    Financially the Twins can't compete with the Tigers (even without their added incentive to win a World Series for Illitch).

    But the Twins still have to do what most improves the Twins. There's no use adding someone like Cano at this point because there are just too many other needs on this team.

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    Question: What if Illitch doesn't die?
    Then you stab him in the heart with a wooden stake. Unless you're into this new age vampire BS that teen girls and my wife read about. I'm not sure how you kill those rediculous things.

  12. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    Exactly...that was my whole point...the percentage of payroll for their highest paid player is irrelevant compared to percentage of payroll for our highest paid player. Those teams are on a different spending level, so why even mention them in the first place to make your point? How about instead of looking at the top paid player percentage of payroll, look at top 3 players and the total percentage of payroll? Cause our top paid guy makes 23, then our next guy makes 7 then our next guy makes around 5. That could be like 33% of what payroll should be.

    On a side note, I wonder how incoming revenue (affecting available payroll) would be affected if Mauer hadn't signed here? I wonder how much of his salary is paid by the fact he's on the team...in tickets sales (and corresponding parking, concessions), merchandise, etc?

    BTW, I'm not in the sign Cano lane...I'm way away from that lane.
    All elite players drive revenue but I think Mauer might have a bit more impact being a hometown boy. He was a better risk given his age and body type. He is going to be 35 at the end of his contract. Who knows, he could have problems like Morneau but I like our odds with him better than a guy who will be 39 or 41 if Cano gets what he wants in terms of years. Prince is a surprising athlete given his build but I could see him being a roster problem for 3-4 years. I would love to see the Tigers sign Cano to a 9 or 10 year deal. They will be really tough for 2-3 more years (while our young guys are entering the leauge) and the Twins will not have to worry about them for a few years.
    Last edited by Major Leauge Ready; 10-16-2013 at 04:22 PM.

  13. #33
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    Exactly...that was my whole point...the percentage of payroll for their highest paid player is irrelevant compared to percentage of payroll for our highest paid player. Those teams are on a different spending level, so why even mention them in the first place to make your point? How about instead of looking at the top paid player percentage of payroll, look at top 3 players and the total percentage of payroll? Cause our top paid guy makes 23, then our next guy makes 7 then our next guy makes around 5. That could be like 33% of what payroll should be.

    On a side note, I wonder how incoming revenue (affecting available payroll) would be affected if Mauer hadn't signed here? I wonder how much of his salary is paid by the fact he's on the team...in tickets sales (and corresponding parking, concessions), merchandise, etc?

    BTW, I'm not in the sign Cano lane...I'm way away from that lane.
    Well, until late August, The Twins' 2nd highest paid player made what $14 or $15 million? That would be about 45% of payroll devoted to 2 players. Without going back through a lot of data, I have no idea of what teams would have 2 players eating up that much payroll but I'm guessing it is pretty rare.

    And it looks to me that if the Twins were to sign Cano, it would stay at about that 45% level (assuming a $100m payroll).

    As for Mauer, I have always maintained that his contract was a business decision that had to be made. I didn't care for it for the long-term baseball interests of the Twins but I got why they signed him and I'm sure that his mere presence drives sales of merchandise and tickets (especially in good times although the % of revenue attributable to him from those items may actually be higher in bad times).

    This isn't about Mauer. This is about whether the Twins should add a contract of almost that magnitude for a position player, Cano. I just can't see it working out.

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by JB_Iowa View Post
    Well, until late August, The Twins' 2nd highest paid player made what $14 or $15 million? That would be about 45% of payroll devoted to 2 players. Without going back through a lot of data, I have no idea of what teams would have 2 players eating up that much payroll but I'm guessing it is pretty rare.

    And it looks to me that if the Twins were to sign Cano, it would stay at about that 45% level (assuming a $100m payroll).

    As for Mauer, I have always maintained that his contract was a business decision that had to be made. I didn't care for it for the long-term baseball interests of the Twins but I got why they signed him and I'm sure that his mere presence drives sales of merchandise and tickets (especially in good times although the % of revenue attributable to him from those items may actually be higher in bad times).

    This isn't about Mauer. This is about whether the Twins should add a contract of almost that magnitude for a position player, Cano. I just can't see it working out.
    Not sure it was 45%, but if it was it was because payroll was lower than it needed to be...anyway.

    Okay...how about in the unbelievably hypothetical world where Kershaw was suddenly available? He's going to cost some coin. Don't sign him if we have the money available? I understand he's a pitcher and you said position player, but that would take about make close to half of payroll for two guys.
    Last edited by ThePuck; 10-16-2013 at 02:11 PM.
    Just remember: You put the lime IN the coconut. Only THEN, can you drink it all up.

  15. #35
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    Not sure it was 45%, but if it was it was because payroll was lower than it needed to be...anyway.

    Okay...how about in the unbelievably hypothetical world where Kershaw was suddenly available? He's going to cost some coin. Don't sign him if we have the money available? I understand he's a pitcher and you said position player, but that would take about 1/3
    I'd sign him (of course, we're in hypothetical la-la-land).

    I may not have said it in my last post but in one of my earlier posts, I thought I made it clear that if the Twins were going to devote that high a percentage to a second player, I thought it had to be for pitching. I just can't see it for another position player at this point.

    I still gulp to think of that high a % spent for 2 players but the Twins do have young prospects who won't be due for their big pay raises until about the end of Mauer's contract.

    It's a balancing act, I realize that. And it does point out why most of your talent has to be home-grown and cost-controlled.


    (I also strongly believe that the starting pitcher needs to bring some veteran leadership. Not sure that Kershaw is quite at that point but I firmly believe in players learning from other players and you have to start at some point with a high quality starting pitcher.)
    Last edited by JB_Iowa; 10-16-2013 at 02:17 PM.

  16. #36
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    If the Twins were even remotely close to the position that the Tigers are currently I would love for them to sign a guy like Cano and I wouldn't care about the 2nd half of the contract. But that's the whole point of signing elite players to mega contracts. The team needs to be able to take advantage of the first half of the contract when that player is elite. The Tigers could be a mini dynastry with Cabrera, Fielder and Cano in the lineup and Verlander, Scherzer, Sanchez and Fister in the rotation.

  17. #37
    Super Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JB_Iowa View Post

    Financially the Twins can't compete with the Tigers (even without their added incentive to win a World Series for Illitch).
    According to Forbes, Twins revenues were in the $214M range, the Tigers $238M.

    I think it's possibly more that the Twins choose not to compete financially with the Tigers than can't.
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  18. #38
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    According to Forbes, Twins revenues were in the $214M range, the Tigers $238M.

    I think it's possibly more that the Twins choose not to compete financially with the Tigers than can't.
    In fairness, I don't think most teams would sport a $184m payroll on $238m in revenues (although I would guess their revenues may be a little higher now).

    Illitch is definitely willing to finance a team that could win the Series.

  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by JB_Iowa View Post
    In fairness, I don't think most teams would sport a $184m payroll on $238m in revenues (although I would guess their revenues may be a little higher now).

    Illitch is definitely willing to finance a team that could win the Series.
    In fairness let's use the correct numbers. 148M.

  20. #40
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    In fairness let's use the correct numbers. 148M.
    Oops, sorry. Should never do things from memory.

    I'm still not sure that most teams spend 62% on salary although that still leaves them about 90 million for the rest of the operation and profit (probably more than that because it seems like the reports on revenue numbers still run a little behind the payroll numbers).

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