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Thread: Article: Five Offseason Predictions

  1. #1
    The King In The North All-Star Nick Nelson's Avatar
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    Article: Five Offseason Predictions


  2. #2
    Senior Member All-Star
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    #1 Low hanging fruit. #2 Pointless. There already exist ML-ready alternatives to Mauer and Doumit. Though, you might be right given this is the Twins we're discussing. #3 I hope you're correct--if it's for a starting pitcher. #4 Disagree. Last year's Hicks experience will make the the tradionalists win the arguement--and Sano will spend most of the season in the minors. Service time and the potential for another early selection in the Rule 4 draft (in 2015) are other considerations/factors. #5 Disagree--they will pay him. Woth Pohlad saying he "will spend!" this off-season--to be chinchy with Duensing (who is on good terms with the Twins) is just inconsistent with stated policy. After all, it's only for one year!

  3. #3
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    A good clue as to whether or not Duensing will be non-tendered is if the Twins put Edgar Ibarra on the 40 man roster before the end of the World Series. If he's added, I can see Duensing non-tendered. If Ibarra isn't added, Duensing doesn't make enough to non-tender. Pedro Hernandez has options and Duensing's been consistently solid for a long time.

  4. #4
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Unless Thielbar and Hernandez (and Diamond ) develop 93-95 mph fastballs, they cannot replace Duensing.

    Would Butera count for #2?

    I just cannot see Ryan spending any money. We shall see...

  5. #5
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    I think Duensing stays
    The money can't be too important...can it?

  6. #6
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Three is a possibility, depending on the money Hughes wants.

    Other than that, forget about no.1. Tanaka will be a Yankee. 2. Pinto and Herrmann can be fine. No need to plug this roster with yet MORE aging, declining "talent." 3. Possible. 4. They won't and they shouldn't. Wait until mid-May if he is doing well in AAA. 5. It is possible, but there also is the talk about stretching him out again . . . Also, Ibarra's status shouldn't matter. Duensing, Thielbar, and Ibarra as the three lefties other than Perkins who are good relievers (sorry, Pedro, you are not, and should be removed from the 40-man, in fact) isn't too many. Ibarra might be plucked if not protected and Duensing should be traded at the deadline if he does well this year.

  7. #7
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer righty8383's Avatar
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    Just out of curiosity, have they set a date for the Tanaka bidding to begin? Not that I have high hopes or anything, just wondering...

  8. #8
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Physics Guy's Avatar
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    1 - I agree, just can't see Ryan forking over that kind of dough.
    2 - Agree, I think Pinto catches 80 -100 games and think a vet to fill in the rest would be a good idea. Mauer becomes 1B.
    3 - This has to happen, no discussion.
    4 - Don't see this happening unless Plouffe implodes in ST. Twins need to wait until June.
    5 - Can see why this could happen, but I doubt it.

  9. #9
    Senior Member Double-A
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    1. Dream on
    2. Guarantee the veteran catcher hit less than .220 last season
    3. See #1
    4. After Hicks the team isn't going to rush Sano
    5. Deunsing will be sold to the fans as "spending money"

  10. #10
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Joe A. Preusser's Avatar
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    1. Sounds about right. I'd say our bid will be ~40 mil and the winning bid will be north of 50.
    2. I think they comfortable going with what they have. If they want a solid veteran backup, then Mauer can work with them and the pitching staff while he's taking grounders at first.
    3. Agree.
    4. I see this one as 0% likely. Not because of Hicks.
    5. Unlikely. This is the prototypical contract the Twins love to give out.

    Five predictions of my own:

    1. Pelfrey is resigned.
    2. Sano plays for the Twins at or by the ASB. Buxton is a Sept call up.
    3. Gibson has a nice first complete year and checks in with an ERA just under 4.
    4. Twins will sign 2 FA pitchers for a yearly average of 10 million or more.
    5. The Twins will win 75 games next year.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    Three is a possibility, depending on the money Hughes wants.

    Other than that, forget about no.1. Tanaka will be a Yankee.
    I think the Yankees will probably get Tanaka, but the Twins might have a better chance if the proposed changes to the posting process go into effect. Under the proposed new process, the Twins wouldn't have to have the top bid. Tanaka could choose from the top three teams.

  12. #12
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    First, can we take about 10 years off Mike Redmond and sign him to fulfill #2?

    #1 - without saying how big the Twins' bid will be, I think that your title statement is correct

    #2 - tossup

    #3 - kind of. I think he will ink a 2 year FA deal with a higher yearly amount than Willingham's but not sure if the total $$$ will be over $21 million but it will have a 3rd year option that will take it over the 21

    #4 I hope so but make no predictions

    #5 I think he's probably still a Twin next year
    Last edited by JB_Iowa; 10-16-2013 at 10:27 AM.

  13. #13
    Super Moderator All-Star
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    2 4 and 5 are wrong I think.
    The Twins have 4 catchers on the 40 man now, and I honestly suspect Herman will be dropped (or at least should be). Pinto starts in AAA unless Doumit is traded. Doumit's PT is reduced to 2nd catcher and a lot less time at DH.

    There will be buzz on Sano, but I think he starts the year in the AAA. Plouffe gets one more shot. If the bat sticks, then the Twins have a potential trade chip or move Plouffe elsewhere.
    Deunsing gets another year, and if he's doing well, may sign a 3 year deal to avoid being non-tendered as he gets more expensive.

  14. #14
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Oldgoat_MN's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gmarais66 View Post
    I think the Yankees will probably get Tanaka, but the Twins might have a better chance if the proposed changes to the posting process go into effect. Under the proposed new process, the Twins wouldn't have to have the top bid. Tanaka could choose from the top three teams.
    Hmmm...
    It is difficult for me to imagine a guy coming from Japan who wants to play for the Minnesota Twins rather than the New York Yankees.

    That is a brand name they got in NYC, and every baseball fan in Japan knows of them.
    I'm on a whiskey diet. I've lost 3 days already.

  15. #15
    1- The Twins will bid for Tanaka and come up short with the winning bid and fee to total about $140million.
    2- No way they sign a veteran catcher--Joe wants to catch, he will catch half the games and Pinto the rest.
    3- Since the bar is low--the Twins will sign a pitcher for 2-3 years for $25-30 million who will disappoint--think Lincecom or Hughes--if lucky they will put up numbers equal to Corriera or Pelfrey (who will be resigned).
    4- Sano will be 3B--not sure if before June 3 (my birthday) or not.
    5- Gardy and Anderson love Duensing. He will be back.

  16. #16
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    1 - Twins will bid, but not win. They are according to MLBtraderumors looking at a Korean pitcher now.
    2. No way - There are enough catchers to go around
    3. Twins will do this - hope it is on 2 good starting pitchers - my bet is 1 from the middle of the pack
    4. - No way Sano will come up after the Super Two cutoff if he is doing well in Rochester.
    5. - Possible but I think they will pay him

    A couple of my preditions
    1. Twins will sign an international free agent for a goodly sum this winter
    2. TR will make at least one trade for a player or pitcher at the major league level
    3. Pressley will be sent to Rochester to see if he can be made back into a starter.

  17. #17
    Senior Member All-Star
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldgoat_MN View Post
    Hmmm...
    It is difficult for me to imagine a guy coming from Japan who wants to play for the Minnesota Twins rather than the New York Yankees.

    That is a brand name they got in NYC, and every baseball fan in Japan knows of them.
    Yes, if the new bidding process takes place, the Twins will have zero chance of ever signing any big name Asian player. It will be big markets, or big Asian communities. St. Peter, the Pohlad's or whoever is representing the team in these kind of league-wide discusions better be strenuously arguing against this process. Of course on the surface it looks like a way to save some money, so they may not.

  18. #18
    Senior Member All-Star
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    #1 I agree, though they could always put in a lowball offer just to say they tried. Rarely does anyone know what the losing teams bid.
    #2 I don't think so, it would signal the end of Mauer at catcher and even if Mauer is moved from the position, Ryan isn't going to be sending signals, it will be done quitely and smoothely internally.
    #3 Shouldn't be hard, but it shouldn't have been hard last year either. We might get a repeat of Ryan's exhasperated "We can't get them to take our money!" meltdown on MLB TV.
    #4 I agree, he will be the favorite, though in the end I think he'll be sent to Rochester. Of course if they do it at the last cut and the fans don't know it's coming, it might get ugly.
    #5 I think he stays. He seems to be a management favorite and his second half was pretty good. That K/9 came out of nowhere, they might have found something valuable in him.

  19. #19
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    1) The Twins will make a bid for Masahiro Tanaka but will come up short of the winning post.
    Sometimes you can't give your money away.

  20. #20
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Boom Boom's Avatar
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    1 - agreed
    2 - agreed, but it will be of the Steve Holm/Rene Rivera ilk. Return of The Son of Sal?
    3 - I doubt it. My expectation is that the Twins biggest FA pitching acquisition will be Pelfrey.
    4 - No chance the Twins call him up before they push back his service clock the extra year. Fans will clamor, and the Twins will remind us of what happened with Hicks.
    5 - 50/50. The Twins were chattering about moving Duensing back to the rotation, which could have been smoke to try and build up some trade value, but I think any other team would realize that if Duensing was a legitimate option to start there was no one in the Twins rotation that was blocking him.

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