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Thread: Twin Lincecum?

  1. #61
    Senior Member Triple-A amjgt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Must not include international free agents then.....since Cespedes signed for $33MM
    I'm not totally sure what their criteria was because some were included and others were not

  2. #62
    Senior Member Triple-A amjgt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
    Ben Sheets had a 1yr $10M deal with the Athletics. Never even played. There's others. But that's only $10m total...so if total.

    I guess, I'd have to say "free agent" would have to be players not previously on your team as Morneau and Mauer would kill that statistic and put us in the top 5-8 teams in terms of contracts per year value. Which, I believe is worth noting.
    My final list only included players that switched teams.

    And yes, Ben Sheets was the player that exceeded the $7M per year for Willingham

  3. #63
    Senior Member All-Star
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    amjgt: I did this exercise earlier this year -- biggest outside free agent signing for each franchise. Here's what I came up with:

    CWS Dunn 4/56 (2011)
    CLE Swisher 4/56 (2013)
    DET Fielder 9/214 (2012)
    KC Meche 5/55 (2007)
    MIN Willingham 3/21 (2012)

    BAL Tejada 6/72 (2004)
    BOS Ramirez 8/160 (2001)
    NYY Teixeira 8/180 (2009)
    TBR Alvarez 5/35 (1998)
    TOR Ryan 5/47 (2006)

    HOU Lee 6/100 (2007)
    LAA Pujols 10/240 (2012)
    OAK Cespedes 4/36 (2012)
    SEA Beltre 5/64 (2005)
    TEX Rodriguez 10/252 (2011)

    CHC Soriano 8/136 (2007)
    CIN Cordero 4/46 (2008)
    MIL Suppan 4/42 (2007)
    PIT Martin 2/17 (2013)
    STL Glaus 4/45 (2005)

    ATL Upton 5/75 (2013)
    FLA Reyes 6/106 (2012)
    NYM Beltran 7/119 (2005)
    PHI Lee 5/120 (2011)
    WAS Werth 7/126 (2011)

    ARI Johnson 4/52 (1999)
    COL Hampton 8/121 (2001)
    LAD Greinke 6/147 (2013)
    SDP Hudson 2/11.5 (2011)
    SFG Zito 7/126 (2007)

    So yeah, only the Padres and Pirates are lower than the Twins. It will be interesting to see if that changes with Pittsburgh's recent success.

    The A's only have Cespedes for more, though, and the Rays haven't signed any expensive outsiders in quite awhile (Burrell, I'd guess).

  4. #64
    Senior Member Triple-A amjgt's Avatar
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    Thanks for the more complete list.

    I'm curious why "TOR Ryan 5/47 (2006)" didn't show up on my original list. Oh well.

    The most interesting thing out of this exercise, for me, ended up being the 2006 info. Big new TV contract and teams went CRAZY with high dollar FA contracts. Like I said, 33 of them that were higher than $10M in total contract value. WAY more than any year since (almost as many as the next 3 years combined).

    Same thing will probably happen this off season, and I fully expect Terry Ryan to get cold feet.

  5. #65
    Senior Member Triple-A
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    Yeah, we can't expect Ryan to "spend just to spend," or to spend more than 5mil per year on any one guy.

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
    Lincecum is not worth $17.5M a year and Hunter Pence is not worth $18M a year.

    SF market dictates prices (devalues money) at over 2x what it does to MSP.

    I'd rather be a 'farm team' than teams that sign players that age and duration for contract anyway. What's exciting about Lincecum and Pence coming back and their best season behind them?
    What's exciting is that both were in great demand around MLB, and the alternatives for the Giants were much worse.

    Hunter Pence's extension still appears to be a bargain relative to his performance in 2013 and the anticipated rising trend in contracts in general.

    His WAR from Fangraphs was 5.4 and 4.2 in B Ref (5.0 oWAR)- which makes his 5/$90 seem fairly reasonable relative to the market valuation model.

    And Lincecum's number, despite his declining status, may very well be the "new normal" for SPs who can still pitch 200 innings.

  7. #67
    Senior Member All-Star LaBombo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
    Buster Olney @Buster_ESPN In 2012-13, Lincecum had a 4.76 ERA, and his fastball velo dropped from 92.2 to 90.2. He gets 2/$35m; good guy, but that's a head-scratcher.
    6:21 PM - 22 Oct 2013
    His FIP and xFIP were well below 4, and his K rate is still hanging in there around 9.

    Yes, his ERA+ was a very sub-standard 76, and AT&T Park and the SF fans both helped to inflate his value, but he's still a good pitcher and a good candidate for a bounce-back season next year.
    Last edited by LaBombo; 10-23-2013 at 05:23 PM.

  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by LaBombo View Post
    His ERA was actually 4.37, but more to the point, his FIP and xFIP were well below 4, and his K rate is still hanging in there around 9.

    Yes, his ERA+ was a very sub-standard 76, and AT&T Park and the SF fans both helped to inflate his value, but he's still a good pitcher and a good candidate for a bounce-back season next year.
    Actually, Buster was correct, his ERA for 2012-13 was, in fact, 4.76.
    Major League Leaderboards Ľ 2013 Ľ Starters Ľ Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball



    But, in addition to maintaining his high K/9, throwing a No-No, and his xFIP being 3.68- his SIERA was 3.86.

    He's a better bounce-back candidate than Dan Haren (2-year FIP 4.18, xFIP 3.85, SIERA 3.85), still throwing 200 innings with a rubber arm (148 pitches thrown in his No-Hitter). Lincecum probably deserves the money, not really that much of a head-scratcher at all.

  9. #69
    Senior Member All-Star LaBombo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Actually, Buster was correct, his ERA for 2012-13 was, in fact, 4.76.
    Major League Leaderboards Ľ 2013 Ľ Starters Ľ Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball



    But, in addition to maintaining his high K/9, throwing a No-No, and his xFIP being 3.68- his SIERA was 3.86.

    He's a better bounce-back candidate than Dan Haren (2-year FIP 4.18, xFIP 3.85, SIERA 3.85), still throwing 200 innings with a rubber arm (148 pitches thrown in his No-Hitter). Lincecum probably deserves the money, not really that much of a head-scratcher at all.
    Yeah, missed the combo platter part about 2012-13 combined. Should have known better than to think that either Buster or tf34 would make a basic mistake like that.

    And yes, the scratching of heads about the deal is a head-scratcher to me too. He's a good pitcher still in his prime and a tremendously popular character in a huge media market.

    Can understand people saying the Twins couldn't have signed him, but never did see any really compelling argument for 'shouldn't'.
    Last edited by LaBombo; 10-23-2013 at 05:32 PM.

  10. #70
    Super Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Thanks for the research, Spycake.
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

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