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Thread: 2014 Rotation

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lefty74 View Post
    I think we'd be better off finding a couple of up and coming pitchers vs. those on the back side of their careers. Both Haren and Lincecom are quickly deteriorating, but if I had to choose 1 I like Haren better.
    Sure but everyone wants those kinds of pitchers, that's why they get nine figure contracts. I'd give Haren a shot, but I doubt he gets three years from any team. Lincecum also probably only gets a two year deal, not sure I want to give up a draft pick for the kind of pitcher whose question marks will likely limit him to a short term deal though.

  2. #22
    My guess is that the rotation will suck so let's start with what we will probably get in free agency
    Phil Hughes
    Mike Pelfrey
    now for the rotation
    1.Hughes
    2.Deduno
    3.Corriea
    4.Pelfrey
    5.Gibson or Worley
    Stat predictions
    Hughes- 10-7 3.87 Era
    Deduno- 9-6 3.71
    Corriea- 7-8 4.31
    Pelfrey- 4-10 4.72
    Gibson- 6-9 4.23
    Worley- 9-9 3.92
    standings prediction
    71-91 5th ALC
    Now let's se what we have right now
    1.Deduno
    2.Corriea
    3.Gibson
    4.Worley
    5.Diamond 4-11 5.12 Era
    thats pathetic
    standing prediction
    57-105 worst in the in the frickin' league
    Fan base crashes organisation moves to California
    JK
    Now for what we should do...
    Pohlad said we can spend 40mil, ok so lets do it
    For starters sign Ervin Santana, he fits perfectly 5yrs 65mil
    he gives up a lot of home runs so he would like Target Field
    make starters feel comfortable by signing Jacoby Ellsbury 5yrs 70mil, so now you have 13 mil sign Masahiro Tanaka 6yrs 57mil, now sign Yunel Escobar 1yr option of a 2nd and 3mil. Finally trade:
    3B Trevor Plouffe
    3B Travis Harrison
    C Matt Koch
    SP Jose Berrios
    2B Brian Dozier
    In return...
    SP Homer Bailey
    2B Brandon Phillips
    Starting lineup
    1.Jacoby Ellsbury CF
    2.Brandon Phillips 2B
    3.Joe Mauer 1B
    4.Josh Willingham DH
    5.Miguel Sano 3B
    6.Oswaldo Arcia LF
    7.Ryan Doumit RF
    8.Josmil Pinto C
    9.Yunel Escobar SS
    Grade B-
    Bench:
    1B Chris Collabello
    C Chris Hermann
    SS Eduardo Escobar
    CF Alex Pressly
    Grade C
    Bullpen
    LRP:Brian Duensing
    MRP:Ryan Pressly
    MPR:Casey Fien
    MPRuke Welker/Anthony Swarzak
    MRP:Caleb Thielbar
    SU:Jared Burton
    CP:Glen Perkins
    Grade: B+
    Rotation:
    1.Ervin Santana
    2.Masahiro Tanaka
    3.Homer Bailey
    4.Samuel Deduno
    5. Kevin Correia
    Grade: B
    Predictions
    Santana: 14-8 3.21
    Tanaka: 17-7 3.17
    Bailey: 13-9 3.54
    Deduno: 12-10 3.76
    Correia: 9-8 3.91
    Standings
    89-73 2nd ALC
    2nd Wild Card spot
    Total team grade: B
    In the wings: (possible called up prospects)
    Byron Buxton CF
    Alex Meyer SP
    Trevor May SP
    Danny Santana SS

  3. #23
    I think Phil Hughes is a great fit and could be a solid #3 starter for the Twins. I want to bring him in and then take a risk on someone with upside like Josh Johnson or Tim Lincecum. Bring in a 3rd guy like Pelfrey or Nolasco and build your rotation around them. Yoon is an intriguing option, but I'm not giving him anything like 3/21 that I've seen some people mention. If he can be brought in on a smaller contract with the idea that he might start in AAA or be a bullpen option, I would be all for it.

    Hughes, Johnson, Pelfrey, Yoon would vastly improve the rotation and give us plenty of options. It won't win us a championship, but it's a lot better than what we have and can bring us toward that .500 mark as our team grows with our top prospects.
    Last edited by Erock; 10-20-2013 at 11:48 PM.

  4. #24
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by #24 Sano View Post
    My guess is that the rotation will suck so let's start with what we will probably get in free agency
    Phil Hughes
    Mike Pelfrey
    now for the rotation
    1.Hughes
    2.Deduno
    3.Corriea
    4.Pelfrey
    5.Gibson or Worley
    Stat predictions
    Hughes- 10-7 3.87 Era
    Deduno- 9-6 3.71
    Corriea- 7-8 4.31
    Pelfrey- 4-10 4.72
    Gibson- 6-9 4.23
    Worley- 9-9 3.92
    standings prediction
    71-91 5th ALC
    Now let's se what we have right now
    1.Deduno
    2.Corriea
    3.Gibson
    4.Worley
    5.Diamond 4-11 5.12 Era
    thats pathetic
    standing prediction
    57-105 worst in the in the frickin' league
    Fan base crashes organisation moves to California
    JK
    Now for what we should do...
    Pohlad said we can spend 40mil, ok so lets do it
    For starters sign Ervin Santana, he fits perfectly 5yrs 65mil
    he gives up a lot of home runs so he would like Target Field
    make starters feel comfortable by signing Jacoby Ellsbury 5yrs 70mil, so now you have 13 mil sign Masahiro Tanaka 6yrs 57mil, now sign Yunel Escobar 1yr option of a 2nd and 3mil. Finally trade:
    3B Trevor Plouffe
    3B Travis Harrison
    C Matt Koch
    SP Jose Berrios
    2B Brian Dozier
    In return...
    SP Homer Bailey
    2B Brandon Phillips
    Starting lineup
    1.Jacoby Ellsbury CF
    2.Brandon Phillips 2B
    3.Joe Mauer 1B
    4.Josh Willingham DH
    5.Miguel Sano 3B
    6.Oswaldo Arcia LF
    7.Ryan Doumit RF
    8.Josmil Pinto C
    9.Yunel Escobar SS
    Grade B-
    Bench:
    1B Chris Collabello
    C Chris Hermann
    SS Eduardo Escobar
    CF Alex Pressly
    Grade C
    Bullpen
    LRP:Brian Duensing
    MRP:Ryan Pressly
    MPR:Casey Fien
    MPRuke Welker/Anthony Swarzak
    MRP:Caleb Thielbar
    SU:Jared Burton
    CP:Glen Perkins
    Grade: B+
    Rotation:
    1.Ervin Santana
    2.Masahiro Tanaka
    3.Homer Bailey
    4.Samuel Deduno
    5. Kevin Correia
    Grade: B
    Predictions
    Santana: 14-8 3.21
    Tanaka: 17-7 3.17
    Bailey: 13-9 3.54
    Deduno: 12-10 3.76
    Correia: 9-8 3.91
    Standings
    89-73 2nd ALC
    2nd Wild Card spot
    Total team grade: B
    In the wings: (possible called up prospects)
    Byron Buxton CF
    Alex Meyer SP
    Trevor May SP
    Danny Santana SS
    Well, that was ambitious . . .

    As soon as the Offseason GM Handbook comes out, people will be posting "offseason blueprints" left and right here. I recommend that you organize this with more detail and post again about it about two weeks!

  5. #25
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    I will bet that the Twins sign Phil Hughes and re-sign Mike Pelfrey.
    They should make Hughes the second signing and never consider Mike Pelfrey.

    Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez, to me, are realistic targets at the very top of what the Twins would ever spend.

    Nolasco, Hughes, Linecum, and so forth, are in the "The Twins will go after one of these guys and if they get him will make the claim that they went out and spent big money."

  6. #26
    Here's what I hope happens.

    1. Tanaka
    2. Pelfrey (or some other cheap one year option)
    3. Corria
    4. Gibson
    5. Diamond/Pelfrey/Duduno or some other placeholder until Meyer is ready

    Take our lumps, get another top 5 pick, sign a quality arm in 2015, and let the new era begin.
    BYTO R.I.P.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    Well, that was ambitious . . .

    As soon as the Offseason GM Handbook comes out, people will be posting "offseason blueprints" left and right here. I recommend that you organize this with more detail and post again about it about two weeks!
    I like his work....another one of us who thinks it's time to take a chance on Yunel Escobar @ SS and actually put a real CF back out on the field in Ellsbury, AND....we have a much more realistic chance on getting this International and this FA than we do with say, Tanaka and/or Granderson.

  8. #28
    Head Moderator MVP glunn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by #24 Sano View Post
    My guess is that the rotation will suck so let's start with what we will probably get in free agency
    Phil Hughes
    Mike Pelfrey
    now for the rotation
    1.Hughes
    2.Deduno
    3.Corriea
    4.Pelfrey
    5.Gibson or Worley
    Stat predictions
    Hughes- 10-7 3.87 Era
    Deduno- 9-6 3.71
    Corriea- 7-8 4.31
    Pelfrey- 4-10 4.72
    Gibson- 6-9 4.23
    Worley- 9-9 3.92
    standings prediction
    71-91 5th ALC
    Now let's se what we have right now
    1.Deduno
    2.Corriea
    3.Gibson
    4.Worley
    5.Diamond 4-11 5.12 Era
    thats pathetic
    standing prediction
    57-105 worst in the in the frickin' league
    Fan base crashes organisation moves to California
    JK
    Now for what we should do...
    Pohlad said we can spend 40mil, ok so lets do it
    For starters sign Ervin Santana, he fits perfectly 5yrs 65mil
    he gives up a lot of home runs so he would like Target Field
    make starters feel comfortable by signing Jacoby Ellsbury 5yrs 70mil, so now you have 13 mil sign Masahiro Tanaka 6yrs 57mil, now sign Yunel Escobar 1yr option of a 2nd and 3mil. Finally trade:
    3B Trevor Plouffe
    3B Travis Harrison
    C Matt Koch
    SP Jose Berrios
    2B Brian Dozier
    In return...
    SP Homer Bailey
    2B Brandon Phillips
    Starting lineup
    1.Jacoby Ellsbury CF
    2.Brandon Phillips 2B
    3.Joe Mauer 1B
    4.Josh Willingham DH
    5.Miguel Sano 3B
    6.Oswaldo Arcia LF
    7.Ryan Doumit RF
    8.Josmil Pinto C
    9.Yunel Escobar SS
    Grade B-
    Bench:
    1B Chris Collabello
    C Chris Hermann
    SS Eduardo Escobar
    CF Alex Pressly
    Grade C
    Bullpen
    LRP:Brian Duensing
    MRP:Ryan Pressly
    MPR:Casey Fien
    MPRuke Welker/Anthony Swarzak
    MRP:Caleb Thielbar
    SU:Jared Burton
    CP:Glen Perkins
    Grade: B+
    Rotation:
    1.Ervin Santana
    2.Masahiro Tanaka
    3.Homer Bailey
    4.Samuel Deduno
    5. Kevin Correia
    Grade: B
    Predictions
    Santana: 14-8 3.21
    Tanaka: 17-7 3.17
    Bailey: 13-9 3.54
    Deduno: 12-10 3.76
    Correia: 9-8 3.91
    Standings
    89-73 2nd ALC
    2nd Wild Card spot
    Total team grade: B
    In the wings: (possible called up prospects)
    Byron Buxton CF
    Alex Meyer SP
    Trevor May SP
    Danny Santana SS
    Interesting first post rookie. Lots to think about.

  9. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by Physics Guy View Post
    I picked Haren because I think he might be a bargain due to perceptions like yours. He finished strong this year, hopefully is over some of the health issues he was having.

    First Half - 5.61 ERA, 1.419 WHIP, .852 OPS against, 7.8 K/9
    Second Half - 3.52 ERA, 1.017 WHIP, .636 OPS against , 8.2 K/9

    Haren will be only 33 next year and I could live with a three year contract for him. Since he doesn't rely on great velocity, I would think he would age well.

    I blogged in more detail about the rotation:
    Twins 2014 Rotation - Blogs - Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum
    42M (14M/yr) for a guy who posted a WAR of 1.3 is not what I would call a bargain. He would be 36 at the end of the proposed contract. Great pitcher in his prime but we have way too many question marks already fo this acqusition to make sense IMO. 2 years and 22M would be a different story.

  10. #30
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    In terms of immediate impact, I can see the Twins with Pelfry and one of Ubaldo Jimenez, Kazmir, Hughes, Baker, and the guy who used to be Fausto Carmona. That would be cool if the Twins signed Yoon too to compete for the 5th starter. I think the Twins will not want more than 3 years on any contract as there is a wave of prospects coming. Unless the Twins somehow end up with Tanaka, which I do not see happening. I do see the Twins signing some more international prospects over the winter who can pitch. I also see the Twins going after pitchers in next years draft so we will soon have an embarrassment of riches in SP in the minors.

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Physics Guy View Post
    Does anybody have evidence of this so-called connection to Minnesota that Josh Johnson has? I realize that he was born here, but spent most of his life in Texas I believe. I've heard several people reference this, but have a feeling it's just because they see he was born here. I'm curious if anybody has seen anything written by the national media.
    I'm a software consultant in the Twin Cities. My oldest account is a place I love to go work, for any number of reasons. Anyway, one of Josh's brothers works there.

    We had one time a few years ago when we talked Josh & baseball. We pretty much never work together, but the president of the company knows what a baseball fan I am and got us to sit down together.
    He is clearly proud of his brother, happy for his success. We talked about Dan Uggla being traded to Atlanta. He said Josh and the other young players then were upset because Dan was such a great guy and very helpful to all the young guys. (fit with other things I've read about Uggla)
    So, I don't know if he has season tix. I know he would go see the Brewers or the Cubs if the Marlins were rolling through. Perfect storm if Josh was pitching in both Milwaukee & Chicago.

    I don't know if Josh has more family here, though I very much had that impression at the time. It wasn't an interview.

    Josh's brother is a good guy. So there.
    Last edited by Oldgoat_MN; 10-21-2013 at 08:21 AM.
    I'm on a whiskey diet. I've lost 3 days already.

  12. #32
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    The Twins have enough money to spend that I'd like them to do what the Cubs did last year. Go out right away and overpay for a guy. Set the bar high and let the other teams curse the Twins for doing so.

    It would also be a sign to all free agents that the Twins are serious which would probably make other guys more willing to come, particularly the few bargains that are left hanging at the end of free agency for what ever reason.

  13. #33
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    One area in its philosophy that I will guarantee that the Twins will not step too far away from is pitchers durability. Pelfrey and Pavano are the only outliers from this philosophy, but the Twins thought they might catch lightning in a bottle and the original contracts were very short, I believe 1-year deals. I can see the Twins evaluating the FA pitchers like this, only based on their ability to "eat" innings.

    Good gambles:
    Masahiro Tanaka
    Ervin Santana
    Ubaldo Jimenez
    Phil Hughes
    Tim Lincecum (Twins won't go here due to price, not health)

    Poor gambles:
    Scott Kazmir (very risky gamble. Twins will NOT go here).
    Dan Haren
    Josh Johnson

    Personally, I would love to see the Twins acquire these pitchers, in this order:
    Tier 1
    1. Tanaka (he's mid-20's and has is entering his prime)
    2. Ubaldo Jimenez (his "stuff" is the best on the market)
    3. Ervin Santana (not an ace, but provides stability)
    Tier 2
    1. Phil Hughes (Very talented and still only 27)
    2. Josh Johnson (Very talented, but needs to stay healthy. Worth a gamble)
    3. Dan Haren (Proven pitcher that has struggled. Great buy-low candidate. Max of 2-yrs, may have to stretch it to 3, because we are the Twins).

  14. #34
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Go out right away and overpay for a guy.
    They did that last off-season. Correia.

  15. #35
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    HBT posted an article saying Linci is looking for a short term deal to re-establish value. That might make him a fit here where he isn't going to have to worry about someone kicking him out. I've said before I'm not a fan, though as a secondary addition to a guy like Tanaka, I would be fine with that. Johnson is another one I wouldnt' mind, but that's pretty risky.

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    HBT posted an article saying Linci is looking for a short term deal to re-establish value. That might make him a fit here where he isn't going to have to worry about someone kicking him out. I've said before I'm not a fan, though as a secondary addition to a guy like Tanaka, I would be fine with that. Johnson is another one I wouldnt' mind, but that's pretty risky.
    Usually guys looking for this type of deal want to be on a playoff contender for the extra exposure. Like Edwin Jackson and Dan Haren.

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    They did that last off-season. Correia.
    He didn't sign until the second week of December, and because the Twins signed him neither early nor late, they were FORCED to overpay him. The Cubs went out and set the tone for the off season by being quick to sign Baker and Feldman.

    I want the Twins to be proactive and make a statement early, that will change how fans, and more importatnly, free agents, view this team. I'd argue that the Twins over-paying of a zero upside arm weeks after other clubs signed similarly, or in most cases higher regarded pitchers, was instead a reactive move which ended up stinking of desperation.

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    HBT posted an article saying Linci is looking for a short term deal to re-establish value. That might make him a fit here where he isn't going to have to worry about someone kicking him out. I've said before I'm not a fan, though as a secondary addition to a guy like Tanaka, I would be fine with that. Johnson is another one I wouldnt' mind, but that's pretty risky.
    I'm in the same boat, but I didn't think any club would give hiim more than two years regardless of what Lincecum wanted. Now when he gets a qualifying offer and insists on one year he looks even worse. Who wants to give up the 2nd round pick for one season of Lincecum in a Twins uniform in 2014?

  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    He didn't sign until the second week of December, and because the Twins signed him neither early nor late, they were FORCED to overpay him. The Cubs went out and set the tone for the off season by being quick to sign Baker and Feldman.

    I want the Twins to be proactive and make a statement early, that will change how fans, and more importatnly, free agents, view this team. I'd argue that the Twins over-paying of a zero upside arm weeks after other clubs signed similarly, or in most cases higher regarded pitchers, was instead a reactive move which ended up stinking of desperation.
    Wasn't it Correia Ryan was talking about when he said he left money on the table? If we believe that, and someone else was willing to pay him even more, doesn't that mean Correia wasn't overpaid? :-)
    Just remember: You put the lime IN the coconut. Only THEN, can you drink it all up.

  20. #40
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Physics Guy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    I want the Twins to be proactive and make a statement early, that will change how fans, and more importatnly, free agents, view this team. I'd argue that the Twins over-paying of a zero upside arm weeks after other clubs signed similarly, or in most cases higher regarded pitchers, was instead a reactive move which ended up stinking of desperation.
    I agree completely with the Twins being proactive. I agree that 3/$42M may be a bit high for Haren, but I think that's what the Twins need to do in order to ensure they get him. Two people have argued for 2/22 or 2/20, but I doubt that will get it done. I think the Twins would stand a good chance of getting him if they add a third year. Once you're looking at $10M+ per year, what is a couple million more. The Twins need to overpay to show people (FA and the fans) that they are serious about righting the ship.

    I originally wrote a blog that was the basis for starting this thread. My guidelines were to propose a rotation that was feasible, yet more aggressive than the Twins have been in the past. I was making an assumption that the Twins might spend $25-30M in free agency. I've seen many posts that are pushing for Tanaka and a few for Santana. I just don't see the Twins going big enough for Tanaka. Both the posting fee and the eventual contract will most likely be each be more than double what is the most of any FA contract the Twins have given out ($21M for Willingham). As for Ervin Santana, I can't see Ryan giving up a 2nd rounder to sign him if indeed the Royals do give him the qualifying offer. I sincerely hope I am wrong about both, as I would be happy for the Twins to have either player. I just don't feel either is likely.

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