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Thread: 2014 Rotation

  1. #1
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Physics Guy's Avatar
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    2014 Rotation

    The Twins need to fill the top two spots in their rotation for 2014. What are your thoughts about this possible rotation:

    #1) Dan Haren - 3 yrs, $42M
    #2) Ricky Nolasco - 4 yrs, $48M
    #3) Samuel Deduno
    #4) Kyle Gibson
    #5) Kevin Correia

    If Deduno isn't healthy we can bump Gibson and Correia up and put in Diamond, Worley, Albers, Meyer or May. Could the Twins be .500 with this rotation if they make no other changes to the team?

  2. #2
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    No other changes? No, the offense would still need help with that rotation, imo. They will be basically a black hole at SS, CF, 3B, and DH if nothing changes on offense.

    I'd rather they sign Lincecum than Haren. I am not a Haren believer, frankly. I'd be ok with Nolasco.
    Lighten up Francis....

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    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    The problem is that Haren has now been fairly bad for two years in a row, and--other than a solid enough year this year--Nolasco has never been good outside of 2008.

    I guess that "problem" could end up being a good thing it drives down value. Subtract one year and some millions and then it becomes more of a worthy gamble. Nolasco would amount to a Correia+ and Haren . . . is a mystery, but he isn't so old to never regain "an average Haren season," which is still good.

    Haren at 2 years/$24 million and Nolasco at 3 years/$30 million.

  4. #4
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    I like Haren a lot but I think he's done. Multiple years for him wouldn't be a good idea. I think the Twins will go after Hughes and I think he'd be a good fit for TF. Their are a bunch of interesting pitchers that might be gotten on one or two year deals - Baker, Santana, maybe Lincecum etc - and the Twins will probably add one of those guys too.

    Hughes
    Correa
    Gibson
    1 yr deal guy
    And I hope Meyer gets the last spot

  5. #5
    Senior Member All-Star Badsmerf's Avatar
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    My guess:

    1. Pelfrey
    2. Correia
    3. Gibson
    4. Worley
    5. Josh Johnson- Torn here. It is pretty hard to predict at this point.

    No way Deduno should start in the rotation. I don't think he ever sees the MLB again... well, this is the Twins rotation so I guess anything is possible. I really don't think Terry Ryan is going to improve this team very much in FA. I think Johnson is the most likely because of the local tie and that he needs to prove he is better than 2013. If this is the rotation, I would be ok with it.

    My ideal rotation for 2014:

    1. Josh Johnson
    2. Tim Lincecum
    3. Gibson
    4. Correia
    5. Pelfrey

    If Meyer pitches well enough to consider bringing up before the trade deadline Johnson could be trade bait (if he pitches well enough). I'd rather have legit MLB arms waiting in the minors than guys you cross your fingers on. Plus, that rotation might be good enough to win some games while costing less than 30m. Add in Kendrys Morales to a moderate contract and see what happens. Sano, Rosario and possibly Meyer will all be adding talent at some point.
    Do or do not. There is no try.

  6. #6
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Physics Guy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    I like Haren a lot but I think he's done. Multiple years for him wouldn't be a good idea. I think the Twins will go after Hughes and I think he'd be a good fit for TF. Their are a bunch of interesting pitchers that might be gotten on one or two year deals - Baker, Santana, maybe Lincecum etc - and the Twins will probably add one of those guys too.

    Hughes
    Correa
    Gibson
    1 yr deal guy
    And I hope Meyer gets the last spot
    I picked Haren because I think he might be a bargain due to perceptions like yours. He finished strong this year, hopefully is over some of the health issues he was having.

    First Half - 5.61 ERA, 1.419 WHIP, .852 OPS against, 7.8 K/9
    Second Half - 3.52 ERA, 1.017 WHIP, .636 OPS against , 8.2 K/9

    Haren will be only 33 next year and I could live with a three year contract for him. Since he doesn't rely on great velocity, I would think he would age well.

    I blogged in more detail about the rotation:
    Twins 2014 Rotation - Blogs - Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum

  7. #7
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Physics Guy's Avatar
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    Does anybody have evidence of this so-called connection to Minnesota that Josh Johnson has? I realize that he was born here, but spent most of his life in Texas I believe. I've heard several people reference this, but have a feeling it's just because they see he was born here. I'm curious if anybody has seen anything written by the national media.

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    Senior Member All-Star Badsmerf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Physics Guy View Post
    Does anybody have evidence of this so-called connection to Minnesota that Josh Johnson has? I realize that he was born here, but spent most of his life in Texas I believe. I've heard several people reference this, but have a feeling it's just because they see he was born here. I'm curious if anybody has seen anything written by the national media.
    I think there is more than that, but that connection alone is better than nothing. I mean, anyone who has been here would want to come back right? He's kinda one of us.
    Do or do not. There is no try.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Physics Guy View Post
    I picked Haren because I think he might be a bargain due to perceptions like yours. He finished strong this year, hopefully is over some of the health issues he was having.

    First Half - 5.61 ERA, 1.419 WHIP, .852 OPS against, 7.8 K/9
    Second Half - 3.52 ERA, 1.017 WHIP, .636 OPS against , 8.2 K/9

    Haren will be only 33 next year and I could live with a three year contract for him. Since he doesn't rely on great velocity, I would think he would age well.

    I blogged in more detail about the rotation:
    Twins 2014 Rotation - Blogs - Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum
    The stats agree with you but 3/42 seems crazy for someone with mediocre stuff and 2 poor seasons. I could live with 2/20ish but not much more. I saw him pitch a few times this season. Early in the season he was throwing his 88mph fastball right down the center the of the plate (the 5.61 ERA). It was sad to watch. Later in the season he was hitting the edges better but I honestly have no idea how he gets 8 K/9. Nobody should be swinging and missing that much at his stuff.

  10. #10
    Senior Member Triple-A
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    The rotation to start next year will probably be
    Corria
    Deduno
    Gibson
    Pelfry
    Johnson/haren
    I say Johnson/ Haren bc both will be cheap. One of those two will pry get released when Meyer gets promoted.
    My wish list would be
    Tanaka
    Deduno
    Gibson
    Linsecom/kazmir
    Corria.

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    I dont believe Haren is worth the money nor johnson either. I would view both has reclamation 1 yr projects with good upside.

  12. #12
    Senior Member All-Star Winston Smith's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Physics Guy View Post
    Does anybody have evidence of this so-called connection to Minnesota that Josh Johnson has? I realize that he was born here, but spent most of his life in Texas I believe. I've heard several people reference this, but have a feeling it's just because they see he was born here. I'm curious if anybody has seen anything written by the national media.
    I read that his brother lives in the cities and is a season ticket holder. Must be true if somebody wrote it.
    This comment brought to you from the Rosedale Mall studio by Hamm's Beer, brewed in the land of sky blue waters.

  13. #13
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    .500 season is a fantasy. 76-86 would be a huge improvement, this team lacks more than just starting pitching.

  14. #14
    Senior Member All-Star Badsmerf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kwak View Post
    .500 season is a fantasy. 76-86 would be a huge improvement, this team lacks more than just starting pitching.
    Adding Lincecum and Johnson would significantly help. Someone like Morales would be a nice stop-gap at 1b. Plus, it would allow you to play Pinto every time a lefty is on the mound. Regardless if Doumit is kept, I think Pinto should be with the Twins as the primary back-up.

    Those guys with a full season of Gibson, increased production from Arcia and not a black-hole in CF can add to 16 more wins. Its all hypothetical, but adding a little talent in the offseason helps win games.
    Do or do not. There is no try.

  15. #15
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    The fangraphs article on crowd sourcing Harens contract is instructive.....IMO.
    Lighten up Francis....

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    With the payroll that is coming off the books the team should push hard towards Tanaka and Yoon, as well as Haren, Johnson, Lincecum, Santana, Kuroda, & Garza....basically chase 'em all. If they get 2 or 3, plug and play and fill in the rest with whoever has the best spring. If they get 0, bring up the kids and play for the future! They should also pursue Choo, Ellsbury, Napoli, Morales, etc. and see who will come and play!

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    No other changes? No, the offense would still need help with that rotation, imo. They will be basically a black hole at SS, CF, 3B, and DH if nothing changes on offense.

    I'd rather they sign Lincecum than Haren. I am not a Haren believer, frankly. I'd be ok with Nolasco.

    I think we'd be better off finding a couple of up and coming pitchers vs. those on the back side of their careers. Both Haren and Lincecom are quickly deteriorating, but if I had to choose 1 I like Haren better.

  18. #18
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Winston Smith View Post
    I read that his brother lives in the cities and is a season ticket holder. Must be true if somebody wrote it.
    f3a5f93d0482bcb21a97c3afc68603c3.jpg

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Physics Guy View Post
    Does anybody have evidence of this so-called connection to Minnesota that Josh Johnson has? I realize that he was born here, but spent most of his life in Texas I believe. I've heard several people reference this, but have a feeling it's just because they see he was born here. I'm curious if anybody has seen anything written by the national media.
    I believe he was born in Minnesota but moved to Oklahoma when he was 5.

  20. #20
    There is is a lot of support here based on names. In other words, the guy used to be good. No way would I touch Lincecum if he cost a draft pick. However, I doubt SF makes a qualifying offer. Over th epast two years he is 20-29 with a 4.76 ERA. Yes, I know his FIP is lower but his FIP has always been signiifcantly lower than his ERA so his FIP does not predict he is unlucky unless he has always been unlucky.

    Johnson is an interesting high risk/reward but he should be plan-B. I am hoping for two of Tanaka, Kazmir, and Hughes. (in that order) Ervin Santana, Jimenez, Nolasco, and Harden are all decent options but they all make me nervous.

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