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Thread: Offseason Handbook: Cheatsheets

  1. #1
    Senior Member Triple-A goulik's Avatar
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    Offseason Handbook: Cheatsheets

    Having spent more time staring at the pages of the offseason handbook than is healthy for a marriage, I have created my own "blue print". I then failed to find a forum in which to post my thoughts so here I am creating my own!

    Based on this as 2014 Team Now
    C- Joe Mauer
    1B- Chris Colabello or Chris Parmalee
    2B- Brian Dozier
    3B- Trevor Plouffe
    SS- Pedro Florimon
    LF- Josh Willingham
    CF- Ryan Presley, Darin Mastroianni or Aaron Hicks
    RF- Oswaldo Arcia
    Bench
    1B/OF- Colabello or Parmalee
    C/OF- Ryan Doumit
    IF- Eduardo Escobar
    C- Chris Herrmann
    OF- Mastroianni or Presley
    STarters
    Kevin Correia
    Samuel Deduno
    Kyle Gibson
    Andrew Albers, Vance Worley, Liam Hendricks, Cole DeVries, Scott Diamond, Logan Darnell, and Pedro Hernandez fighting for two spots
    Relievers
    Glen Perkins
    Josh Burton
    Caleb Thielbar
    Brian Duensing
    Casey Fien
    Michael Tonkin
    Anthony Swarzak

    Heres my plan:
    Mauer and Dozier are set for now.

    Plouffe has his spot until Sano pushes him aside which will then lead to moving Plouffe/Escobar/Florimon in trade(s). Best we can get.

    Resign Morneau in an emotional based return that fans will love and will add leadership in the clubhouse. Give him 2yrs 9 million 4/5 per year with club option on 2nd year and .5 buyout. Trade Parmalee for whatever you can get.

    Splash= Stephen Drew. Handbook estimate says 3 yrs, 30 million. We offer 3 Years 33 million with the third year a player option. Extra cash and player options add to his incentives to come here.

    Outfield
    No major changes, we're waiting for players to develop and Willingham to get traded when we fall from contention

    Bench
    Leftovers from our other moves/trades. Hopefully:
    Herrmann and Doumit until Doumit is traded then Pinto
    Colabello (Parmalee was traded)
    Presley
    Whoever remains of Plouffe, Florimon, Escobar until Rosario comes up

    Starters
    Josh Johnson 2 years, 14 Million (Team option on second year and .5 buyout)
    Matt Garza Estimate in handbook says 5 yrs 75 million. We offer Front loaded 78 million 16/16/16/15/15 with player option after 2 years and team option after 3. 5 million buyout if option not picked up.
    Correia is now our #3
    Gibson, Albers, Deduno, Worley, Diamond, and Darnell are allowed to fight for last two spots.
    Hendricks and Hernandez are moved to relief permanently.
    Relievers
    Perkins, Swarzak, Fien, Thielbar, Tonkin are set
    Burton and Duensing are traded for best we can get
    Achter, Oliveros, Ibarra, Henandez, and Hendricks duke it out for last two spots while Pressley is looked at as a starter in Rochester. He may come back as a reliever mid season if that does not work out.

    All that adds up to a 90 Million payroll. Less actually when Doumit, Willingham, and Plouffe are traded.

    What are your thoughts?

  2. #2
    Senior Member Triple-A Reider's Avatar
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    Good post, but all things considered, I would not splash $11/M/Year on Drew this off season. Florimon is a stud @ SS. Good range, strong arm, decent speed on the base paths (9 more stolen bases than Drew) and has shown some pop at the plate. He could obviously improve his hitting (.221 ba is unacceptable), OBP etc.. but he did hit 9 HR's in his first full season, so he did show some pop. Drew had 4 more, while having 39 more at bats. Drew also had more strike outs, is 30, and the Twins need starting pitching more than anything.

    I'm not against upgrading any position as the entire team is a work in progress, but considering the circumstances, I think the Twins would be better off spending the money on starting pitching.

    I do agree that the Twins need to get better at the plate too. I just don't think Drew is the answer. .253 with 13 hr's with an $11m/yr price tag. I think I'd see what Florimon can do in year two before thinking of going another route. First base is wide open for sure. Perhaps the Twins can get creative and figure something out (whether it's signing or trading for a first baseman or moving a current player over to first base and acquiring another player at another position e.g. catcher or third base).
    Last edited by Reider; 10-26-2013 at 04:44 AM.

  3. #3
    Thanks for your thoughts Goulik. I need to order a Handbook.

  4. #4
    Senior Member Triple-A goulik's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reider View Post
    Good post, but all things considered, I would not splash $11/M/Year on Drew this off season. Florimon is a stud @ SS. Good range, strong arm, decent speed on the base paths (9 more stolen bases than Drew) and has shown some pop at the plate. He could obviously improve his hitting (.221 ba is unacceptable), OBP etc.. but he did hit 9 HR's in his first full season, so he did show some pop. Drew had 4 more, while having 39 more at bats. Drew also had more strike outs, is 30, and the Twins need starting pitching more than anything.
    Great points on the stats, my only concerns with Florimon are the BA and OBP. The thing is we can afford a Stephen Drew AND the starting pitching as shown by the Garza and Johnson additions. (I know Johnson is a risk) SS and 1B are the positions with need that have no one coming to help in the minors and I took a year or two on Morneau.

  5. #5
    Senior Member Triple-A Reider's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by goulik View Post
    Great points on the stats, my only concerns with Florimon are the BA and OBP. The thing is we can afford a Stephen Drew AND the starting pitching as shown by the Garza and Johnson additions. (I know Johnson is a risk) SS and 1B are the positions with need that have no one coming to help in the minors and I took a year or two on Morneau.
    Yeah, I hear what you are saying. And I'm not against upgrading. But I think the problem with spending $11m/year on a veteran who only hit .032 better than our rookie (.253 vs .221), who potentially has upside, is that there is the law of diminishing returns coming into play. It's possible for Florimon to improve his ba and obp over last year, while based on Drew's track record, it's unlikely that he's going to improve much, if at all. In fact, what if his numbers drop off a bit? That would be even worse.

    I think we can get more bang for our buck on other players in other area's. If Drew was hitting .300+ or 20+hr's with 100+ rbi's, I can see the argument for upgrading. But spending that much money on a potential marginal upgrade doesn't seem like a wise baseball decision.

  6. #6
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Stephen Drew posted an OPS 160 points higher than Florimon, 53 points of which was OBP.

    He would be a massive upgrade at the position, not a marginal one.

  7. #7
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Unless the Twins get rid of Gardenhire and Anderson, the probability of getting Garza is zero. I would like to see the Twins get 3 FA SPs better than Gibson (Johnson, Haren and Hughes are my preferences), so Gibson and Correia can fill the last couple spots in the rotation and Correia will be warming a spot for Meyer. Add a decent veteran SS and another bat (1B?), sign a lefty to platoon with Plouffe at 3B, move Willingham to a full time DH role, sign an one-year Gomes type of guy to play LF and/or be a bench bat, move Doumit full time at the bench and you might have a competitive club. That will take about $40-50M. and take the Twins' payroll close to $100M, an amount they should be comfortable with, since their 2013 revenues were $215M reportedly.

    I just don't want to see half baked rosters again, but since Ryan is saying that Deduno pretty much won a spot in the rotation, I cannot hope for much.

    Detail but: De Vries can elect to be a 6-year MiLB FA in early November, so the Twins would have to re-sign him to be counted as part of the Twins.
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  8. #8
    Senior Member Triple-A goulik's Avatar
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    Thanks Thrylos for the Free Agency for DeVries info, I'd missed that. Personally I'd let him walk.

    As for your three free agent pitchers, we have to remember that Meyers will be coming up soon. I guess signing a third pitcher could allow us to trade Correia or one of the new guys when Meyers is ready...

    At 3B I don't see the point of a platoon mate when Sano is coming and may even stick right out of Spring Training

    I hear you Reider on Drew not being the upgrade you'd want. That's the great thing about all this, we all have our own opinions and if it's valid to you, that is good enough. I'd prefer Drew and that's good enough for me.

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    The offseason will be very simple. I do not see a lot of moves coming. the bullpen is set with more than enough options so we could trade from there. I do not see us getting a SS to replace Florimon. Florimon's bat is weak but does have some value, but his defense is elite or very near elite and he is inexpensive the next 2-3 seasons. Dozier is set at 2nd, Sano will be moving into 3rd so we should be fine with Plouffe for now. 1B could use an upgrade (Cory Hart or Morneau is fine but I doubt we see Morneau. Although if you could believe Plouffe, Parmelee, Colabello, Doumit, Mauer, and Willingham can all take turns manning the position.
    We have enough OF till Hicks, Rosario, Buxton, and Arcia take over.

    So for the offseason we will likely resign Pelfry and one of Hughes, Ervin Santana, or Ubaldo Jiminez. I am willing to bet when Terry Ryan says he will sign a pitcher and give up a second round draft pick he is referring to getting a pitcher type deal that Lohse received a below market contract because of his status of receiving a qualifying offer and only in this instance will he be willing to give one up. If we don't get Pelfry we will go after another 2nd tier starter maybe Scott Baker... 1B may be upgraded but not urgent at this point... and I think we trade or sign and rule 5 for some more prospects. I would like to see the Twins maybe sign Punto as he is now a great fit for our team as someone who can step in and play some SS and 3rd.
    Last edited by Brandon; 10-27-2013 at 12:00 AM.

  10. #10
    Senior Member Triple-A Reider's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by goulik View Post
    I hear you Reider on Drew not being the upgrade you'd want. That's the great thing about all this, we all have our own opinions and if it's valid to you, that is good enough. I'd prefer Drew and that's good enough for me.
    Hey, if Terry Ryan went out and signed 2 or 3 good FA pitchers, Drew, and maybe another positional player, I would not complain at all. It really wouldn't hurt to at least try and field a competitive team. We all know the Twins have the $ to do it. I just don't think Terry Ryan will sign Drew and I don't think he would be at the top of my (non starting pitcher) FA signings list either based on all of the circumstances. But you are right, that's the beauty of having our own opinions and I respect yours. Drew is a solid player.
    Last edited by Reider; 10-27-2013 at 02:45 AM.

  11. #11
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    I'd be happy with Drew. Might create a bit of a positional issue if Dozier is for real and Rosario continues to hit the snot out of the ball, but that's why God invented trades.

    As for FA pitchers, I think you get 2 max.

  12. #12
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Stephen Drew has been good in 2006, 2008, 2010, and now 2013. That said, his 2013 season really comes quite close to his overall career totals. But I don't really trust him for three years. A magical one-year overpay and trade at the deadline would be my pipedream. My crackpipedream . . .

    (edit: his defensive value in 2009 was very good)
    Last edited by Shane Wahl; 10-27-2013 at 07:29 AM.

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    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    FYI: for those interested in actually constructing a nicely, orderly blueprint, the payroll is between $59 and $60 million, including everyone currently on the roster and that last million estimate based on Plouffe, Duensing, and Swarzak getting raises to be determined. It's probably going to be about $59.5 million

  14. #14
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    Stephen Drew has been good in 2006, 2008, 2010, and now 2013. That said, his 2013 season really comes quite close to his overall career totals. But I don't really trust him for three years. A magical one-year overpay and trade at the deadline would be my pipedream. My crackpipedream . . .

    (edit: his defensive value in 2009 was very good)
    To be clear, I don't trust him for three years, either. I'm actually pretty okay with Florimon being a stop-gap for a year or two.

    But to call Drew a small upgrade over Florimon just isn't true. He would be a huge upgrade for at least a year or two and possibly a marginal upgrade for a third year.

    I don't think that's where the team should be focused right now... They need players who will be better for 3+ years to complement the wave of young players coming through the system (in other words, above average starting pitching).

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    Senior Member Double-A Wookiee of the Year's Avatar
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    I definitely like your Josh Johnson signing, but I wonder if he'd accept a 2-year deal. My guess is he's looking for that clean, one-year "prove it" deal. And I'd be fine with the Twins giving him that. If he has a good year, you either flip him at the deadline for a good return, or you wait and offer him a Qualifying Offer at the end of the year (if Johnson has a healthy year and he's good enough that you'd want him back, he'd be worth the QO).

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    Senior Member Triple-A
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    I dont understand the love affair with Josh Johnson and Dan Haren. I see Shawn Marcum and Rich Harden written all over these two. Maybe I am blind...but I would rather have two of Hughes/Jimenez/Kazmir.

  17. #17
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pierre75275 View Post
    I dont understand the love affair with Josh Johnson and Dan Haren. I see Shawn Marcum and Rich Harden written all over these two. Maybe I am blind...but I would rather have two of Hughes/Jimenez/Kazmir.
    How can you be concerned about injuries but endorse Hughes and Kazmir? Heck, many thought Kazmir was toast.

    They all have warts, but in Haren and Johnson there is a longer track record of high-level success to hope for.

  18. #18
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pierre75275 View Post
    I dont understand the love affair with Josh Johnson and Dan Haren. I see Shawn Marcum and Rich Harden written all over these two. Maybe I am blind...but I would rather have two of Hughes/Jimenez/Kazmir.
    It's possible... But it's also possible that Johnson and/or Haren could return to form and be a borderline ace pitcher.

    Besides, what's to like about Kazmir but not Johnson/Haren?

    And Hughes has plenty of warts. He's my "first choice" guy this offseason but he has warts. Plenty of 'em.

  19. #19
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    I am not sure if the cost benefit is there with Drew at SS. He would cost us around 10-13 million per season as we have to overpay the other teams that want him and Florimon costs 500k and is better defensively negating some of the offense that Drew brings.

  20. #20
    Senior Member Triple-A goulik's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wookiee of the Year View Post
    I definitely like your Josh Johnson signing, but I wonder if he'd accept a 2-year deal. My guess is he's looking for that clean, one-year "prove it" deal. And I'd be fine with the Twins giving him that. If he has a good year, you either flip him at the deadline for a good return, or you wait and offer him a Qualifying Offer at the end of the year (if Johnson has a healthy year and he's good enough that you'd want him back, he'd be worth the QO).
    Thats part of what makes me such an excellent GM...I got him for two years!!

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