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Thread: Baseball America ranks Twins' system 7th

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    The Pirates have 3 potential top of the rotation arms, not including Cole, and top 10 positional prospects at OF, SS and Catcher. Six players ranked in Sickels' end of season top 75 prospects list. They also have another 5 players probably in the 100-200 range. There is plenty of talent here to warrant a top 5 system ranking.

    Who do you think should replace them in the top 5?
    I'm not as high on Kingham, McGuire or Hansen as you are. And Glasnow is a complete boom/bust type. They might stick at #5 but I like the other 4 teams more.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    Well, frankly, after the top 5 or so teams, just having two premier players is going to get you ranked pretty high. Looking at Sickels lists, those prospects are not evenly distributed. Just looking at other teams with a top 20 guy, Seattle has 3 in the rankings (4, 75 and ?? for the injured pitcher) so do the Indians and Mets but the Cards look better than all 3. A's have one player (Russell at 15 but nothing after him), so do the Tigers. Rockies have 2. Royals have 4. I think Cards, with two premier guys in the top 20, should pretty easily slot into most top 10 rankings.
    I definitely think that the Cards will slot into the top-10. However, you methodology got me wondering if there will be any surprise teams highly ranked due to depth. A couple years ago I think the Padres were pretty highly ranked not because they had any elite prospects (no one in the top 20), but because they had something like two dozen B prospects. I don't have near enough knowledge of other teams' farm system to make any guesses, but I'm genuinely curious. I guess I'll have to wait until after the experts weigh in to find out.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    Well, frankly, after the top 5 or so teams, just having two premier players is going to get you ranked pretty high. Looking at Sickels lists, those prospects are not evenly distributed. Just looking at other teams with a top 20 guy, Seattle has 3 in the rankings (4, 75 and ?? for the injured pitcher) so do the Indians and Mets but the Cards look better than all 3. A's have one player (Russell at 15 but nothing after him), so do the Tigers. Rockies have 2. Royals have 4. I think Cards, with two premier guys in the top 20, should pretty easily slot into most top 10 rankings.
    You bring up an interesting discussion topic, as Markos alluded to, is a premier player or two worth more than 3 or 4 top 100 players? Personally I'll take quantity over quality. The failure rate of prospects is so high, even of elite prospects, that I downgrade a system like the Cards.

    I looked through all the teams top prospects the other day and IMO they break down into 4 groups.

    Group 1 are the teams like the Twins with elite talent and depth. Every team has 6+ top 100ish prospects and a premier player. Astros, Cubs, Red Sox, Twins and the Pirates.

    Group 2 doesn't quite have the depth but has 4+ top 100 prospects. They also have some very intriguing players that could quickly become top 100 prospects. The Mets, Dodgers, Royals, Rays and Marlins fall into this category (though to be fair the Mets have Syndergaard and d'Arnaud who could be considered premier).

    Group 3 teams either have 3-4 top 100 prospects, one might be elite, or 2-3 top 100 prospects but 2 of them are elite. This is the biggest group and includes the Indians, D-Backs, Rockies, Cards, Mariners, Rangers, Phillies, Reds, Blue Jays and the Nationals. The Cardinals could fit anywhere from 11-22. I'd put them somewhere in the middle because I don't think they have quite as much depth as some of the other systems.

    Group 4 teams are just B. A. D. Let's say it all together, BAD. A's, Padres, Giants, Tigers, Braves, White Sox, Brewers and Angels.

    I think you're selling the Mets system quite a bit short. They have 2 premier prospects in Syndergaard and d'Arnaud and a very nice pitcher in Montero. In addition Wilmer Flores, Steven Matz, Kevin Plawecki and Cesar Puello were all listed in the "Honorable Mention" section of Sickels top 75 list. They also have Dominic Smith who was their 1st round pick in 2013 and was considered the top prep bat of the draft. Dilson Herrera is an intriguing 2B prospect that has the tools to be ranked in the future.

    The Royals have a much better system than the Cardinals as well. In addition to the 4 he mentions they also have Hunter Dozier and Sean Manaea from this years draft. Bubba Starling, if he can ever put his tools together, and Jorge Bonifacio are both intriguing. John Lamb has had injury problems but was a very good pitcher a few years ago.

    I'd take the Mariner's Walker, Hultzen, Paxton, Peterson foursome over the Cardinals Taveras, Martinez, Wong, ??? (assuming Hultzen's injury isn't career ending). Though part of that is because I value pitchers much more than OF's and 2B.

    The Indians I'll give you, though I aboslutely LOVE Lindor. I'd trade Sano or Buxton for Lindor. Boom. Done.

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    I'm not as high on Kingham, McGuire or Hansen as you are. And Glasnow is a complete boom/bust type. They might stick at #5 but I like the other 4 teams more.
    I also have the Pirates at 5. I was just saying that I don't see a strong alternative to the Pirates.

    My 3 "top of the rotation" possibilities for the Pirates didn't include Kingham, btw. Taillon, Glasnow and Heredia are the 3 I was talking about. I think it's too early to judge McGuire or Meadows based on the few AB's they got this season.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    I also have the Pirates at 5. I was just saying that I don't see a strong alternative to the Pirates.

    My 3 "top of the rotation" possibilities for the Pirates didn't include Kingham, btw. Taillon, Glasnow and Heredia are the 3 I was talking about. I think it's too early to judge McGuire or Meadows based on the few AB's they got this season.
    The thing is that the Twins arms stack up well against the Pirates arms. Heredia is a big name only. Kind of like Deolis Guerra when he was traded for. He's been pushed but he doesn't strike anyone out while walking everyone.

    It's not too early to judge McGuire. I didn't like him that much in the draft and I still don't. Meadows is a different story.

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    The thing is that the Twins arms stack up well against the Pirates arms. Heredia is a big name only. Kind of like Deolis Guerra when he was traded for. He's been pushed but he doesn't strike anyone out while walking everyone.

    It's not too early to judge McGuire. I didn't like him that much in the draft and I still don't. Meadows is a different story.
    Kab I don't think we're disagreeing about the Pirates here. I think they're the fifth team and behind the Twins which is what it sounds like you believe as well.

    To continue the discussion with some minutia because that is fun sometimes, I don't disagree about Heredia, his stats have not backed up the scouts so far. That doesn't mean they won't in the future though. Interestingly he gives up few hits which compensates for his wildness. I'm not sure that is sustainable but it is intriguing.

    The Twins have some young arms with a lot of potential; Stewart, Gonsalves, Thorpe, Felix, Rosario, Landa; but they are so far away it is hard to compare them to AA and AAA players. In addition I don't know the Pirates system well enough to know how well their A- and Rk ball pitchers are thought of.

    If we limit ourselves to the more well known commodities, say A-ball and above, the Pirates have the better pitchers, IMO. Taillon is considered better than Meyer, though when it's all said and done I wouldn't be surprised if Meyer is the better pither. Glasnow is clearly a better prospect than Berrios and Kingham is better than May. After that the Twins have a bunch of guys with back end ceilings while the Pirates have a mid-rotation guy in Kyle McPherson, assuming he is healthy. The Twins might have the better young guys, again I don't know the Pirates' system well enough to comment either way, but above rookie ball it is hard to argue against the Pirates.

    As for McGuire and Meadows I said it's too early to judge based on the AB's they got this season. It is just a small sample size and it means little. I think it's fair to judge them on their scouting reports at this point and if you disliked McGuire before the draft well, he has done little to change opinions one way or the other.

  7. #27
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    I don't think the Twins were wrong to take Stewart but I do think that in a few years, I could see Meadows being the best player and a lot of teams kicking themselves over passing on him. It seemed (from things like minorleagueball) that a lot of people were thinking he was a "boring" pick, didn't have the upside of Frazier, small HS, slow to the majors, etc.

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    I don't think the Twins were wrong to take Stewart but I do think that in a few years, I could see Meadows being the best player and a lot of teams kicking themselves over passing on him. It seemed (from things like minorleagueball) that a lot of people were thinking he was a "boring" pick, didn't have the upside of Frazier, small HS, slow to the majors, etc.
    Wasn't meadows the one the Twins were linked to the most? The one with less power potential but better contact and range? I get confused between the 2.

  9. #29
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    Sickles preferred Frazier. I know that... I'll have to disagree there.

  10. #30
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    Mayo and Callis over at mlb.com picked which team they each thought had the best farm system. Callis went with the obvious answer the Astros while Mayo.....well he does what Mayo does and picked the pirates for arguments sake. Last week he picked Bryant over Sano as the best 3B prospect in the game even though he has Sano ranked higher. Here is a link to his article on why the pirates have the best farm:
    Pipeline Perspectives: Pittsburgh Pirates have baseball's top farm system | MLB.com: News

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    Wasn't meadows the one the Twins were linked to the most? The one with less power potential but better contact and range? I get confused between the 2.
    Yeah, the Twins were supposed to favor Meadows more than Frazier but I'm not sure how on either of them they were. They seemed pretty much on Stewart and some rumors about the catcher Pitt took.

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