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Thread: Larry Corrigan Returns to the Twins

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Rob Antony was interviewed, and admitted he did not know what it was. I don't just make stuff up. Here is Rob Neyer's thoughts on the subject from back then. Looks like I was off by a year or so....:

    Twins thrive without sabermetrics - SweetSpot Blog - ESPN
    I love that you linked to a story written by a stat guy that finished with this: "And also because Ron Gardenhire is one damn fine manager."

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Rob Antony was interviewed, and admitted he did not know what it was. I don't just make stuff up. Here is Rob Neyer's thoughts on the subject from back then. Looks like I was off by a year or so....:

    Twins thrive without sabermetrics - SweetSpot Blog - ESPN
    I think you misread my post - I wasn't being literal.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    I love that you linked to a story written by a stat guy that finished with this: "And also because Ron Gardenhire is one damn fine manager."
    Lots of people think he's a fine manager, good manager, great manager. Even "stats guys".
    Lighten up Francis....

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Rob Antony was interviewed, and admitted he did not know what it was. I don't just make stuff up. Here is Rob Neyer's thoughts on the subject from back then. Looks like I was off by a year or so....:

    Twins thrive without sabermetrics - SweetSpot Blog - ESPN
    You'll probably get hammered because it's a couple years old but good link. At the end Neyer predicted the Twins would win the division yet his analysis (of the lack of analysis) may have instead predicted the Twins collapse.

  5. #25
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    I think people make far too big of a deal about this stats stuff. Obviously they know what it is, and they know how to use it.
    I don't think that's remotely obvious at all. Especially without any evidence or trends in their player acquisitions to indicate they are using these stats behind the scenes. This isn't just that these things aren't being said publicly, it's that the Twins are still doing things the same as they were 15-20 years ago when these stats were less common. Neither the action nor the rhetoric reflects these things are taken seriously, used, or even understood.

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    I don't think that's remotely obvious at all. Especially without any evidence or trends in their player acquisitions to indicate they are using these stats behind the scenes. This isn't just that these things aren't being said publicly, it's that the Twins are still doing things the same as they were 15-20 years ago when these stats were less common. Neither the action nor the rhetoric reflects these things are taken seriously, used, or even understood.
    What moves has Ryan done that you think show he doesn't know what he's doing? What moves should he have done? Shouldn't that be the barometer instead of him using language you like?

    I mean, the main gripe with him seems to be not spending big on free agents. We had entire threads about the pitchers we didn't get and it looked like Ryan ended up pretty good in that regard. Are we concerned that he's being outfoxed in trades? Are the Twins promoting prospects too slowly? Has he made good waiver claims or rule v picks?

  7. #27
    The King In The North All-Star Nick Nelson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    I mean, the main gripe with him seems to be not spending big on free agents.
    I don't think this is necessarily accurate. I think it's more that he constantly pursues the wrong free agents. If you're not going to spend big, go for risk/reward guys with upside, not proven mediocrities who fall into the same pitch-to-contact category as what you already have. There were plenty of guys who signed for a similar amount (or less) to Correia/Pelfrey last year that would've made a lot more sense.

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick Nelson View Post
    I don't think this is necessarily accurate. I think it's more that he constantly pursues the wrong free agents. If you're not going to spend big, go for risk/reward guys with upside, not proven mediocrities who fall into the same pitch-to-contact category as what you already have. There were plenty of guys who signed for a similar amount (or less) to Correia/Pelfrey last year that would've made a lot more sense.
    OK, here are most of the pitchers that were in that group. I might have missed one or two. John Lannan? Anyhow, other than Feldman and Correia, not a lot was gotten in that price range. I think the Cubs signed Villanueva to a similar deal but he spent most of the time in the bullpen (although I know some Twins fans talked him up). Anyhow, which high risk/reward guys was I missing? I guess Liriano?

    Scott Feldman - Cubs - 1/6m, 12-12 105 ERA+, 181.2ip, 1.6 WAR
    Kevin Correia 2/10m 9-13, 97 ERA+, 185.1ip, 1.6 WAR
    Brandon McCarthy - DBacks - 2/15.5m - 5-11 84 ERA+, 135ip -0.2 WAR
    Dan Haren - Nats - 1/13m - 10-14 81 ERA+, 169.2ip -0.1 WAR
    Ryan Dempster - Bos -2/26.5m 8-9 89 ERA+, 171.1ip, -0.2 WAR
    Joe Saunders - Seattle - 1/6.5m - 11-16, 70 ERA+, 183ip -0.3 WAR
    Mike Pelfrey 1/4m 5-13, 78 ERA+, 152.2ip, -0.3 WAR
    Shawn Marcum - Mets - 1/4m - 1-10 67 ERA+, 78.1ip -1.0 WAR
    Joe Blanton Angels - 2/15m - 2-14 62 ERA+, 132.2ip -2.0 WAR
    Scott Baker - Cubs - 1/5.5m 3 starts, 15ip. Missed most season w/injury

    (This is bWAR but fWAR can be very different - according to them, Pelfrey was a 2 WAR pitcher this year).

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    OK, here are most of the pitchers that were in that group. I might have missed one or two. John Lannan? Anyhow, other than Feldman and Correia, not a lot was gotten in that price range. I think the Cubs signed Villanueva to a similar deal but he spent most of the time in the bullpen (although I know some Twins fans talked him up). Anyhow, which high risk/reward guys was I missing? I guess Liriano?

    Scott Feldman - Cubs - 1/6m, 12-12 105 ERA+, 181.2ip, 1.6 WAR
    Kevin Correia 2/10m 9-13, 97 ERA+, 185.1ip, 1.6 WAR
    Brandon McCarthy - DBacks - 2/15.5m - 5-11 84 ERA+, 135ip -0.2 WAR
    Dan Haren - Nats - 1/13m - 10-14 81 ERA+, 169.2ip -0.1 WAR
    Ryan Dempster - Bos -2/26.5m 8-9 89 ERA+, 171.1ip, -0.2 WAR
    Joe Saunders - Seattle - 1/6.5m - 11-16, 70 ERA+, 183ip -0.3 WAR
    Mike Pelfrey 1/4m 5-13, 78 ERA+, 152.2ip, -0.3 WAR
    Shawn Marcum - Mets - 1/4m - 1-10 67 ERA+, 78.1ip -1.0 WAR
    Joe Blanton Angels - 2/15m - 2-14 62 ERA+, 132.2ip -2.0 WAR
    Scott Baker - Cubs - 1/5.5m 3 starts, 15ip. Missed most season w/injury

    (This is bWAR but fWAR can be very different - according to them, Pelfrey was a 2 WAR pitcher this year).
    But this is not the debate, it is not about the results of these pitchers, it is about whether Ryan was targeting pitchers that statistical analysis favors. He did not appear to. Ryan's method may or may not have gotten good results from his free agents, but that is not what was at question.

    Good results would be a check mark in favor of his "Old School/Scouting" approach, but it does not prove that he has embraced statistical analysis.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    I mean, the main gripe with him seems to be not spending big on free agents. We had entire threads about the pitchers we didn't get and it looked like Ryan ended up pretty good in that regard. Are we concerned that he's being outfoxed in trades? Are the Twins promoting prospects too slowly? Has he made good waiver claims or rule v picks?
    For me, it's that TR has thus far refused to bid on good talent, anytime, anywhere. The only acquisitions he ever makes are either explicitly capped in spending, or involve modest interest at best (Correia, Pelfrey, etc.).

    Sometimes that's a good play, when you don't think the talent or value is there, but as a hard and fast rule? At the top level of a sport where talent is scarce? Even if you're really good at all of the other aspects of your job, it almost guarantees a slow rebuild (5-6 seasons?) at best, and quite possibly an unsuccessful rebuild if a particular player or draft doesn't pan out as expected.

    Fortunately for TR, the draft and most international signings are explicitly capped now -- one could argue that's the only reason we have Buxton and a few other of our top prospects. But I would love to see TR and his team put their baseball and scouting acumen to work on the domestic and Cuban/Asian free agent markets -- not necessarily to sign mega-contracts or get into bidding wars, but to target good investments and occasionally snag one. Right now they essentially sit those markets out, on principle.

    EDIT: Sorry I drifted away from the stats debate...
    Last edited by spycake; 10-29-2013 at 01:58 PM.

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Good results would be a check mark in favor of his "Old School/Scouting" approach, but it does not prove that he has embraced statistical analysis.
    Well, Correia pitched how Ryan thought he would and he specifically mentioned Goin when talking about signing Correia, so I do think it shows the Twins have some analysis based on stats. Probably not the same ones that fangraphs use. (But clearly they are also scout heavy).

    Remember, Joe Posnanski wrote that the A's internal WAR calculator had Cabrera ahead of Trout last year. ML teams have more info than we (fans) give them credit for.

  12. #32
    Senior Member All-Star IdahoPilgrim's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    But this is not the debate, it is not about the results of these pitchers, it is about whether Ryan was targeting pitchers that statistical analysis favors. He did not appear to. Ryan's method may or may not have gotten good results from his free agents, but that is not what was at question.

    Good results would be a check mark in favor of his "Old School/Scouting" approach, but it does not prove that he has embraced statistical analysis.
    If the results are good, does it really matter what approach he takes?

    And on the topic at hand, has it been statistically proven that the statistical analysis method is substantially better? Aside from cherry-picked anecdotal evidence (which can always be found for all sides of any issues) I would like to see some sort of statistical analysis about the relationship of statistical analysis to baseball success. I'm not sure how you would measure that - size of statistical analysis budget, number of analysts, a quantitative score based on percentage of weight statistical analysis carries when making personnel moves, number of times mentioned (or not mentioned) in a GM interview - but take that quantitative measure of adoption of statistical analysis and then correlate that with wins per season and playoff series wins and see what it looks like. Would the use of statistics actually be statistically significant?

  13. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    For me, it's that TR has thus far refused to bid on good talent, anytime, anywhere. The only acquisitions he ever makes are either explicitly capped in spending, or involve modest interest at best (Correia, Pelfrey, etc.).
    .
    I'm not going to disagree with you but I'm also not sure you're right. In fairness to Ryan, when he was GM through 07, he did lock up a lot of talent on extensions, which was significant, but he didn't really have the means to bid on top talent.

    After he left, we did see the Twins have a top 10 payroll for one year, with some real smart FA pickups (Pavano, Thome, Hudson) that helped them to a great season.

    When Ryan came back, the team wasn't in a position where free agency was going to help, esp with a bunch of young guys needing to come up. The Willingham, Doumit, Correia, Burton finds were ok for a rebuilding team.

    I'm still willing to give Ryan the benefit of the doubt and think he can spend more but he won't use FA as a crutch, he'll use it to help polish a nearly finished project like they did in 2010. And these last two years, there really wasn't a high end talent that anyone could realistically think the Twins could have gotten. They weren't going to win a bidding match against the Dodgers. Sanchez wasn't going to come here when Detroit was backing up the truck for him. The Twins weren't going to win a bidding on Hamilton or Pujols.

  14. #34
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    McPhail never had trouble signing guys to huge deals, some of the biggest in the majors at the tnme, and he operated under the same constraints.

    And, we totally disagree that FA "would not help" the last three years. 100% disagree.

    Also, judging decisions after the fact is not really a good way to judge decisions. If you drive drunk, and live, was it a good idea to drive drunk? Should you do it again?

    I tire of this "debate". No one on the stats side is saying it is the only way. that's a straw man. No one on the FA side is saying it is the one true way, and they should not still draft and develop players. It is a straw man. No one is saying they don't use stats at all. That is a straw man. I hope I'm strong enough to just stop answering these kinds of posts someday.

    What we are asking for, is to use every available means to get better.
    Lighten up Francis....

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    McPhail never had trouble signing guys to huge deals, some of the biggest in the majors at the tnme, and he operated under the same constraints.

    And, we totally disagree that FA "would not help" the last three years. 100% disagree.

    Also, judging decisions after the fact is not really a good way to judge decisions. If you drive drunk, and live, was it a good idea to drive drunk? Should you do it again?

    I tire of this "debate". No one on the stats side is saying it is the only way. that's a straw man. No one on the FA side is saying it is the one true way, and they should not still draft and develop players. It is a straw man. No one is saying they don't use stats at all. That is a straw man. I hope I'm strong enough to just stop answering these kinds of posts someday.

    What we are asking for, is to use every available means to get better.
    McPhail didn't have the same economic problems that Ryan faced. It's an apples/oranges comparison.

    Yep, we disagree on FA. But please tell me what path the Twins should've taken. What FA should they have signed?

    I'm comfortable with Ryan and the FO getting the team right. They have the history and they've made a number of moves that suggests that the game hasn't passed them by. I'm not going to get upset if they don't seem to be going things the "fangraphs" way or if they keep thins close to the vest.

  16. #36
    Senior Member All-Star Jim Crikket's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Badsmerf View Post
    Because the Angels organization is one the Twins should be stealing people from...
    Bringing the topic back around to Corrigan's hiring, I just thought I'd respond to this comment.

    I don't think the problem with the Angels' organization has necessarily been their scouting. They gave away so many top draft picks chasing protected FAs the last couple years that it would be pretty amazing scouting to pick up anyone with significant promise. That FO has had to be a pretty frustrating place to work for good scouts lately. Now, you add in a lack of any job security because the GM himself could be shoved to the curb any time and you take any road out of town that you can find.

    Unless Corrigan is the guy who told the LAAA brass to go get Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols without regard to costs in $ and draft picks, I'm not going to worry too much about the fact that he spent the last 2 years with the Angels.

    EDIT: By the way, after finishing at or near the bottom of both rookie leagues a couple of years ago, both of the Angels' rookie league teams were above .500 in 2013. I have no idea if Corrigan influenced that or not, but having been a follower of the Angels' former MWL affiliate, I can tell you that's a significant improvement over the kind of talent they'd been sending up through the ranks previously.
    Last edited by Jim Crikket; 10-29-2013 at 02:49 PM.
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  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    How would a front office know something like FIP isn't useful to them if they don't know what it is?
    My thinking is that they are more concerned with how they get to the endpoint of a season stat than a season stat for a player. FIP may tell you that they pitched better or worse than their ERA says they did. FIP may tell you if you have a good pitcher. Paying Might even be useful in saying if they are a good pitcher or not. Paying closer attention to what happens when they throw the ball would be a better indicator. Does what they throw produce a GB % that can be sustained? Does what they throw lead to a lot of right field line drives which could lead to more HR at Target Field. That sort of situation and numerical ssesments are a lot more important than FIP.

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    Well, Correia pitched how Ryan thought he would and he specifically mentioned Goin when talking about signing Correia, so I do think it shows the Twins have some analysis based on stats. Probably not the same ones that fangraphs use. (But clearly they are also scout heavy).
    You'll have to find that one because I don't remember any reference to Goin when it came to signing Correia, quite the opposite in fact. I do remeber Ryan saying his SCOUTS came back and said he was better then what his numbers:

    Mackey: Low-risk or not, Twins are taking philosophical gambles | 1500 ESPN Twin Cities ? Minnesota Sports News & Opinion (Twins, Vikings, Wolves, Wild, Gophers) | Sportswire: Minnesota Twins

  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by IdahoPilgrim View Post
    If the results are good, does it really matter what approach he takes?
    Perhaps not, but then the people defending Ryan need to stop saying that BECAUSE he didn't make a bad free agent signing, he MUST have been using statistical analysis.

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Perhaps not, but then the people defending Ryan need to stop saying that BECAUSE he didn't make a bad free agent signing, he MUST have been using statistical analysis.
    There is plenty of evidence they have a statistical analysis department. Is it so hard to believe they could be right?

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