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Thread: Larry Corrigan Returns to the Twins

  1. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivlikejehu View Post
    Willingham is an aging veteran - 2013 wasn't going to "cement" him as anything better than he was in 2012, in fact, the exact opposite was true. And many Twins fans stated as much at the time, so there is no hindsight bias in effect here.

    There is no reason to think your speculation about other GMs has any credibility whatsoever. The contract was reasonable, the player was doing well, and various clubs could have used a right-handed corner OF bat. Rumors certainly abounded that the interest was real. No one expected top talent in return.

    But it goes to the same issue as Correia - what good do those guys do a terrible team? Going from 100 losses to 96? Once a team is that bad it doesn't really matter. Spend the money on something that actually might pay dividends in the future.
    The rumors at the time was that Willingham might get back a back end prospect type - Sean Gilmartin of Atlanta was mentioned. While Willingham was having a nice season, he still had 2 years on his contract, which, in his case, was a negative. If he's having a healthy year this year, he should still be able to net something similar.

    To the second point, there wasn't a lot to pay dividends in the future. Pelfrey and Correia were brought in to eat innings and make starts. The future of the rotation isn't on them. The Twins just needed some arms to get through the year.

  2. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Goin View Post
    Sometimes analysis prevents you from doing something really stupid. I know some of you are saying, "See. This is proof they aren't doing advanced stats work or they wouldn't make so many stupid decisions." Fact is many of those decisions the fan base will never know about.
    I tend to stay away from claiming facts and proof. I guess in the conversation we had regarding statistics and Kevin Correia, I wanted to simply point out that in an interview after the signing, Terry Ryan said he signed Correia because the scouts told him he was better than his numbers. That seemed like reasonable evidence that Ryan made the Correia decision based more on his scouts as opposed to his data team.

  3. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    The rumors at the time was that Willingham might get back a back end prospect type - Sean Gilmartin of Atlanta was mentioned. While Willingham was having a nice season, he still had 2 years on his contract, which, in his case, was a negative. If he's having a healthy year this year, he should still be able to net something similar.

    To the second point, there wasn't a lot to pay dividends in the future. Pelfrey and Correia were brought in to eat innings and make starts. The future of the rotation isn't on them. The Twins just needed some arms to get through the year.

    I guess I'd ask, why was that their target? Getting through the year?
    Last edited by mike wants wins; 10-30-2013 at 01:09 PM.
    Lighten up Francis....

  4. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    As for the Willingham comment, this is the easiest rebuttal that so many fans seem to ignore:

    Why would a contending team trade significant prospects for Willingham when his value was peaking?

    It's a two-way street. If you can recognize that a 34 year old OF is having a career year, a guy that was available to every team for $21m just five months earlier, a guy that has 2 1/2 years left on his contract, why would you give up significant value to acquire him?
    I think Willingham probably had some decent value last off season. Certainly a other less competitve teams like the Twins wouldn't value him as highly, but a playoff team needing a right handed power bat likely would have been quite interested.

    I think our expectations last year were too high though. Simply because of his age and the fact that he was a corner OF, not a CF, almost surely meant his value couldn't touch Revere/Span. However those two both fetched top five organizational prospects. I'll bet Willingham could have gotten a MLB ready back of the rotation guy similar in stature to Worley and an orgainzational prospect in the 5-10 range. If that would have happened, many of us would have been pretty disappointed in the return at the time however.

    I think the real reason Willingham wasn't dealt had to do with what Ryan stated more than once last off-season; they didn't view themselves as rebuilding and they figured they needed Willingham's bat to compete.

  5. #85
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    To the second point, there wasn't a lot to pay dividends in the future. Pelfrey and Correia were brought in to eat innings and make starts. The future of the rotation isn't on them. The Twins just needed some arms to get through the year.
    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    I guess I'd ask, why was that their target? Getting through the year?
    And even if they just wanted to "get through the year", BJ Hermsen, Liam Hendriks, PJ Walters, Samuel Deduno, Sairon Martis, Vance Worley, Andrew Albers, Scott Diamond, Pedro Hernandez, Kyle Gibson, Cole DeVries et al. are plenty enough to "get through the year" with pretty much the same results, without having to have a fifth starter in a good team (Correia) as your first or second starter in 2014 as well...
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  6. #86
    Head Moderator All-Star glunn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Goin View Post
    Thanks glunn. Not really sure what, if any, insights I can provide. I was reading the comments for some reason and felt the need to say something. I know I'm probably walking into a hornets nest by getting on here but oh well. Maybe this can turn into something fun.
    You are a celebrity to many of us, and anything that you care to contribute will be greatly appreciated. Also, if any of the hornets try to sting you, we will ban them.

  7. #87
    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    I suspect that most of us did not like the fact that Correia was the big free agent signing on the way of fixing the Twins' pitching.
    I'm not sure anyone was claiming he was the big free agent signing to fix the rotation. He was a guy to pitch innings which he did better than expected this year.

  8. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Goin View Post
    I think it's funny people know what stats we use or that we don't have any predictive stats when we don't talk about it. How do you know?
    OK, got to admit I didn't see this coming. Welcome to the site.

  9. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Goin View Post
    I'm not sure anyone was claiming he was the big free agent signing to fix the rotation. He was a guy to pitch innings which he did better than expected this year.
    To me the move strikes more as a rebuilding move, and while I didn't like it, I'm personally well beyond that at this point.

    Speaking of rebuilding, I'd be curious what you can and cannot say about that, but from my perspective it looks like the next wave of prospects is (at least for the 2015/16 timeframe) going to be woefully short on impact pitching. From the fan's perspective, it doesn't appear that there's much interest in going after that type of pitching on the market. Are the fans wrong here? If so, would it be possible to elaborate on some failed attempts to acquire pitching from say last offseason, or is that too much to ask?

    Thanks.

  10. #90
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Goin View Post
    I'm not sure anyone was claiming he was the big free agent signing to fix the rotation. He was a guy to pitch innings which he did better than expected this year.
    Jack, thanks.

    Nobody claimed it with words, but if you have a rotation like the 2012 Twins' rotation which a. was bad and b. lost its best piece to a trade, and its second best to free agency/retirement, one would assume that it was a part of the team that need fixing for the Twins to compete in 2013. And from the 2 MLB FAs signed, Correia was the one who was given the biggest contract, thus the "big FA signing".

    Unless, the intention was not for the Twins to compete in 2013, in which case there are a lot of AAAA guys in the system who would pitch innings with the same overall result for the team.

    The Twins had 2 clear choices after 2011 and 2012:

    a. doing everything to put a competitive (*) team out there in 2013 and beyond
    b. do a real rebuild looking forward to 2015-16 and not sing mediocre 30+ year olds who will not be on their primes in that future

    But instead they made moves that looks like they were made for the sake of just making moves and resulted to nothing better.

    This is where the issue is with most of the fans who are having issues with the front office moves last off-season. I just hope that something was learned there and this off-season is better.


    (*) where competitive = world series contender.
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  11. #91
    Speediest Moderator All-Star snepp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Goin View Post
    I know I'm probably walking into a hornets nest by getting on here but oh well.

    If it makes you feel better, you won't be the only masochist here.


  12. #92
    Head Moderator All-Star glunn's Avatar
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    I wish that we could focus on issues that are in Jack's wheelhouse, such as the role of stats in making decisions and the role of other factors relative to stats. Many of the questions that are being asked seem to be questions that should be addressed to Terry Ryan, such as what was the game plan for 2013.

    It is exciting to have a key member of the FO posting here and I think that it's natural for us all to be enthusiastic to the point of giddiness, but let's try not to overwhelm Jack with broad questions about big picture items.

  13. #93
    Head Moderator All-Star glunn's Avatar
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    Jack, I have a question that you might feel comfortable answering.

    I am wondering whether there has ever been a time when someone in the front office brought up an idea that they got from reading Twins Daily or from reading the TD offseason handbook. I am not seeking details -- I am just wondering if TD has ever been helpful in providing an idea or two that seemed worth discussing, and whether anyone in the front office reads the annual handbook.

  14. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by glunn View Post
    Jack, I have a question that you might feel comfortable answering.

    I am wondering whether there has ever been a time when someone in the front office brought up an idea that they got from reading Twins Daily or from reading the TD offseason handbook. I am not seeking details -- I am just wondering if TD has ever been helpful in providing an idea or two that seemed worth discussing, and whether anyone in the front office reads the annual handbook.
    If he says Mark DeRosa, you need to ban Dave permanently

  15. #95
    Super Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    I think its awesome that Jack stopped by and shed some light.

    Thanks For those much needed posts. I would love to see you stop by and keep us inline from time to time.
    "9. Lipstick"

    "How can Canada produce Tie Domi and not have a better military"?

    "I noticed while robbing the First State Bank last night that if you go into the vault when nobody is looking... You can get away with it".

  16. #96
    Quote Originally Posted by glunn View Post
    Jack, I have a question that you might feel comfortable answering.

    I am wondering whether there has ever been a time when someone in the front office brought up an idea that they got from reading Twins Daily or from reading the TD offseason handbook. I am not seeking details -- I am just wondering if TD has ever been helpful in providing an idea or two that seemed worth discussing, and whether anyone in the front office reads the annual handbook.
    I get a copy of the Handbook every year and read through it and go back to it periodically. I tried to order it undercover the first year but Parker noticed the email address and outed me. Those guys put a lot of time and effort into that book, but also a lot of thought into their work year around.
    I realize there are more ways to look at the game or a player than just my view. I look at a lot of blogs about baseball and about other teams that I read daily or when I'm looking up a prospect, or I see they have posted an interesting post via Twitter. There are a ton of knowledgeable people writing about this game and getting a little different perspective every now and again is good thing.

  17. #97
    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Jack, thanks.

    Nobody claimed it with words, but if you have a rotation like the 2012 Twins' rotation which a. was bad and b. lost its best piece to a trade, and its second best to free agency/retirement, one would assume that it was a part of the team that need fixing for the Twins to compete in 2013. And from the 2 MLB FAs signed, Correia was the one who was given the biggest contract, thus the "big FA signing".

    Unless, the intention was not for the Twins to compete in 2013, in which case there are a lot of AAAA guys in the system who would pitch innings with the same overall result for the team.

    The Twins had 2 clear choices after 2011 and 2012:

    a. doing everything to put a competitive (*) team out there in 2013 and beyond
    b. do a real rebuild looking forward to 2015-16 and not sing mediocre 30+ year olds who will not be on their primes in that future

    But instead they made moves that looks like they were made for the sake of just making moves and resulted to nothing better.

    This is where the issue is with most of the fans who are having issues with the front office moves last off-season. I just hope that something was learned there and this off-season is better.


    (*) where competitive = world series contender.
    You and I just going to have to disagree on this one. Signing veteran players, even if you are rebuilding, is a necessity sometimes to allow your prospects to continue their development path in the Minor Leagues.

  18. #98
    Please ban me! All-Star stringer bell's Avatar
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    How do you rebuild a rotation? Look at Cleveland last year. Two starters with pretty big upsides--Jiminez and Masterson--pitched much closer to their ceiling than their floor. They gambled on a rehab project (bought a lottery ticket) and won with Kazmir and filled the rest of their rotation with their own prospects. The Tribe had a pretty good bullpen to draw to and markedly improved their pitching.

    What can the Twins learn from this? I guess you don't give up on good arms. Research your "lottery tickets" and develop from within. The biggest difference between the Twins and Tribe is that of the pitchers who have had success (I'll say Correia, Diamond, and Worley) none have as big an upside as Masterson or Ubaldo.

    I think the Twins should sign one highly sought starter. Ubaldo, Hughes, or maybe Feldman to what Ryan surely would consider a "monster contract"--three or more years for more than Willingham is making. They need to also high a high-reward guy, perhaps Johnson or maybe Pelfrey, as well for their lottery ticket. Beyond that, I think they have a lot of candidates to fill out the rotation. To succeed like Cleveland did, they need to "hit" on their free agent signings and have Gibson develop and Diamond or Worley bounce back.

  19. #99
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    I just want to say, again, thanks for stopping by Jack. Appreciated.
    Lighten up Francis....

  20. #100
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    Thanks Mr. Goin for stopping by.

    I'm pretty sure posts about rebuilding strategy aren't really germane to Mr. Goin's work with the Twins, so let's try to avoid re-hashing that discussion, okay? Same with specifics about players and contract offers and negotiations. Let's try to focus the discussion on areas that he knows and information he can provide.

    If you are still reading, Mr. Goin, here are a couple of questions for you:

    1) Has the composition of your staff changed from last offseason when you talked to Parker? I think it was just you and an intern then. (Asked as a Twins fan and possible job seeker )

    2) What's the status of PITCHf/x being added to Twins minor league parks?

    3) What's the status of FIELDf/x? I remember hearing about it being installed in San Francisco a few years ago, curious about its status for Target Field (or MLB-wide).

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