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Thread: Article: Minnesota Twins Top 50 Prospects: 16-20

  1. #1
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Article: Minnesota Twins Top 50 Prospects: 16-20


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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    It sounds like we have some pretty talented pitchers in the lower levels. Where do Eades and Rogers start next year, and how quickly could they move up?

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer righty8383's Avatar
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    Interesting to see Fernando Romero in the top 20. I suppose the development of his secondary pitches will determine if he ends up being a starter or a reliever.

  4. #4
    Surprised to see Eades this high. You pointed out his disastrous numbers this year. 2014 is a key year for him--presumably at Cedar Rapids. For me, he must show something or I will consider him a bust. On the other hand, another chip for Gonsalves to have on his shoulder considering the Twins picked Eades ahead of him...

  5. #5
    I read this blog daily and barely know about Fernando Romero. I realize he is in the GCL but I know Thorpe, Rosario, Jorge, Landa but this Romero kid...I have never heard anything about him really.

    Is there a prediction on which pitchers will start where next season? It seems like we have a plethora of starting pitchers but not enough spots to start them. I imagine the following:

    Rochester:
    Logan Darnell
    Alex Meyer
    Trevor May
    Pat Dean
    Tom Stuifbergen

    New Britain:
    Taylor Rogers
    DJ Baxendale
    Matt Summers
    Alex Wimmers
    Tyler Duffey

    Fort Myers:
    Jose Berrios
    Ryan Eades
    Mason Melotakis
    Tim Atherton
    Tim Shibuya
    Hudson Boyd
    Jason Wheeler

    Cedar Rapids (This is where it gets tough...):
    Kohl Stewart
    Yorman Landa
    Lewis Thorpe
    Miguel Sulbaran
    Randy Rosario
    Felix Jorge
    Stephen Gonsalves
    Aaron Slegers


    What say you Seth?

  6. #6
    Plus we have Kuo Hu Lo and Fernando Romero...not a bad problem to have I guess

  7. #7
    Romero over Jorge Felix seems like a stretch.

    Rogers over Baxendale doesn't make sense. Baxendale was pushed faster and he totally dominated A+ where Rogers finished.
    Baxendale was drafted in 2012 where Rogers was drafted in 2011 (both from college).
    Obviously the Twins see more potential with Baxendale since they pushed him ahead of the 2011 draft class.
    Yes - he struggled in AA but Hicks struggled in the Majors because he wasn't ready for that level.

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    Owner All-Star John Bonnes's Avatar
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    Seth, I've got a general question about your rankings, driven by Rogers being in the top 20....

    How much weight do you give to strikeout rates?

    Rogers is 22 years old and posted 83K in 123 IP in HIgh A, in a pitcher's league. To me, that seems like a guy who almost no chance of having any meaningful career in MLB, not even as a reliever.

    Now, maybe at this number, none of these guys have much hope of a MLB career, but I would think Goodrum would, and relievers that are lower on this list might too. So is there something you know about Roger that we don't - like he's an extreme groundball guy or something - or do you discount strikeout rate, which I notice you often don't include if it's not impressive.

    Thanks.

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    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Unfortunately, the similarities of Vargas aka Baby Papi with Big Papi expand to the way the Twins are thinking of them. There was absolutely no reason for Vargas not to move to New Britain when Sano and Rosario did. At the all star break he was hitting .286/.364/.542 (.906 OPS, pretty close to Eddie Rosario's .903 with the Miracle) with 12 HR and 51 RBI. Instead the Twins signed 27 year old non-prospect Reynaldo Rodriguez to play first base for the Rock Cats.

    I just hope that history does not repeat itself here...

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    Senior Member Triple-A
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    Did they keep Vargas at Ft Myers so he could work with the trainers? I have heard the training facilities are the best there.

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    Senior Member Double-A Wookiee of the Year's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs
    the similarities between Vargas and his friend David Ortiz are stunning.
    Do you mean that literally--are Vargas and Ortiz friends? Or do you mean it in the Senatorial, "My good friend from West Virginia" way?

  12. #12
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tibs View Post
    It sounds like we have some pretty talented pitchers in the lower levels. Where do Eades and Rogers start next year, and how quickly could they move up?
    I would guess Rogers starts in New Britain and Eades starts in Ft. Myers.

  13. #13
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DAM DC Twins Fans View Post
    Surprised to see Eades this high. You pointed out his disastrous numbers this year. 2014 is a key year for him--presumably at Cedar Rapids. For me, he must show something or I will consider him a bust. On the other hand, another chip for Gonsalves to have on his shoulder considering the Twins picked Eades ahead of him...
    We preach and preach and preach not to make a big deal out of the great numbers that college pitchers can put up in E-Town. I don't think it's worth worrying about what happened in 14-15 innings either. It's about 2 years too early to consider anything close to the word bust.

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    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wookiee of the Year View Post
    Do you mean that literally--are Vargas and Ortiz friends? Or do you mean it in the Senatorial, "My good friend from West Virginia" way?
    When Ortiz started this season on the DL, he went to a few of the Miracle games. He has befriended Sano and Vargas. I can't speak to the extent of that, but I know there was time spent together.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Smcginnity View Post
    I read this blog daily and barely know about Fernando Romero. I realize he is in the GCL but I know Thorpe, Rosario, Jorge, Landa but this Romero kid...I have never heard anything about him really.

    Is there a prediction on which pitchers will start where next season? It seems like we have a plethora of starting pitchers but not enough spots to start them. I imagine the following:

    Rochester:
    Logan Darnell
    Alex Meyer
    Trevor May
    Pat Dean
    Tom Stuifbergen

    New Britain:
    Taylor Rogers
    DJ Baxendale
    Matt Summers
    Alex Wimmers
    Tyler Duffey

    Fort Myers:
    Jose Berrios
    Ryan Eades
    Mason Melotakis
    Tim Atherton
    Tim Shibuya
    Hudson Boyd
    Jason Wheeler

    Cedar Rapids (This is where it gets tough...):
    Kohl Stewart
    Yorman Landa
    Lewis Thorpe
    Miguel Sulbaran
    Randy Rosario
    Felix Jorge
    Stephen Gonsalves
    Aaron Slegers


    What say you Seth?
    That is quite a log jam, and you didn't even count the guys who don't make the majors such as Hendriks, Worley, Diamond, Albers, Walters, etc.

  16. #16
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    Eades is one of the most interesting Twins prospects to me. His "massive" 15.2 innings after an insanely long college season mean zero to me. If can add some more strength with professional trainers and figure out if he wants to throw a slider or a curve, instead of a slurve, he could be a steal. He was a top 20 draft prospect for most the year and ended in the top 35 of a lot of lists.

  17. #17
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smcginnity View Post
    I imagine the following:

    Rochester:
    Logan Darnell
    Alex Meyer
    Trevor May
    Pat Dean
    Tom Stuifbergen

    New Britain:
    Taylor Rogers
    DJ Baxendale
    Matt Summers
    Alex Wimmers
    Tyler Duffey

    Fort Myers:
    Jose Berrios
    Ryan Eades
    Mason Melotakis
    Tim Atherton
    Tim Shibuya
    Hudson Boyd
    Jason Wheeler

    Cedar Rapids (This is where it gets tough...):
    Kohl Stewart
    Yorman Landa
    Lewis Thorpe
    Miguel Sulbaran
    Randy Rosario
    Felix Jorge
    Stephen Gonsalves
    Aaron Slegers


    What say you Seth?
    Fun to think about, but just a few notes:

    1.) remember that, especially in the lower levels, innings counts matter, so we'll likely see many of these guys get the opportunity to start throughout the year. Cedar Rapids went with a 6-man rotation this year, and even then, many of their starters got a couple of weeks in the bullpen too.
    2.) Rochester - Stuifbergen is a free agent at this point. I know he's still talking with the Twins, but after having Tommy John mid-summer, he may not be back anyway until mid-season.
    3.) Just because of innings, I wouldn't be at all shocked to see Alex Meyer get 3-4 starts in New Britain before moving up.
    4.) That New Britain rotation sounds about right.
    5.) Boyd may get another shot in the rotation, but ultimately, he could be a bullpen guy. (same with Melotakis, though I think he did enough to keep starting)
    6.) I could see the Twins keeping a couple of those Cedar Rapids guys in EST due to weather concerns, but also just to keep them starting and stretched out so when there is a need, they can be called up.
    7.) Guys like Shibuya and Atherton could pitch out of the bullpen. Sulburan pitched the full season at Low-A, he could/should move up to Ft. Myers' rotation too.
    8.) Remember too that they will sign a few minor league contracts at those upper levels as well, as they should.
    Last edited by Seth Stohs; 11-01-2013 at 02:18 PM. Reason: Added a couple more thoughts

  18. #18
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SarasotaBill View Post
    Romero over Jorge Felix seems like a stretch.

    Rogers over Baxendale doesn't make sense. Baxendale was pushed faster and he totally dominated A+ where Rogers finished.
    Baxendale was drafted in 2012 where Rogers was drafted in 2011 (both from college).
    Obviously the Twins see more potential with Baxendale since they pushed him ahead of the 2011 draft class.
    Yes - he struggled in AA but Hicks struggled in the Majors because he wasn't ready for that level.
    Rogers was the Twins 12th round pick in '12, one round after Baxendale. Both out of college. I would argue they should/could be closer together. Rogers gets bonus points for being left-handed and having a very good slider. He could drop a couple of spots due to lack of Ks. Baxendale should be up a few spots as well due to his pitch mix. I like both. They should be closer together. Having seen both, I'll stand by my slight edge to Rogers, though I know that most will disagree... (It's my list! HA!)

  19. #19
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by John Bonnes View Post
    Seth, I've got a general question about your rankings, driven by Rogers being in the top 20....

    How much weight do you give to strikeout rates?
    It's a piece, for sure. If he averaged 8.0 K/9 or more, he'd probably be top 10. And, as I admitted in the previous message, I may have him a few spots too high. I put more weight on the pitches as I learn more about pitchers. I've seen him pitch a couple of times. Good low-90s fastball. Works quick. Good control. Terrific slider. Has the size to grow into a little more velocity.

    At the end of the day, he might become Scott Diamond (pick which Scott Diamond you wish, the really good 2012 version or the not-so-good 2013 version), and he could be either one of those... or he may not advance beyond AA.

    I do think K/9 is important, but it can't be the be all, end all for back-of-the-rotation ceiling guys.

  20. #20
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Unfortunately, the similarities of Vargas aka Baby Papi with Big Papi expand to the way the Twins are thinking of them. There was absolutely no reason for Vargas not to move to New Britain when Sano and Rosario did. At the all star break he was hitting .286/.364/.542 (.906 OPS, pretty close to Eddie Rosario's .903 with the Miracle) with 12 HR and 51 RBI. Instead the Twins signed 27 year old non-prospect Reynaldo Rodriguez to play first base for the Rock Cats.

    I just hope that history does not repeat itself here...
    I guess you could argue that, or you could say that he struggled the rest of the way enough that his OPS dropped to .813.

    I don't want to speak for the Twins, but I could venture a couple of guesses:

    1.) It was his first full season. Remember last year, he missed a bunch of games at the beginning of the season due to his 50 game suspension. He tired.
    2.) The Miracle lineup was different after Sano and Rosario moved. He didn't have the same protection in the lineup. They maybe wanted to see how he would respond when he was suddenly pitched a little differently.
    3.) He is an absolute butcher at 1B. Why not let him spend more time with Doug Mientkeiwicz and see if he can get any better? What harm could that do?

    I'm not saying that these are the reasons, but in my mind, they are very fair reasons. Also, Reynaldo Rodriguez had a solid year, and as Jack G mentioned in another thread response to you, sometimes those veteran types purpose is so that they don't hurt a prospect by moving him too quickly.

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