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Thread: Article: Free Agent Pitcher Profile: Josh Johnson

  1. #21
    Twins Contributor All-Star Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TRex View Post
    Can you make a Qualifying Offer if you only give a 1 year contract? IIRC, you didn't get compensation under the old rules unless the player was on a multi-year deal.
    You can. You can't make a QO to players that are traded during the season. Napoli, for example, will get a QO coming off a 1-year deal.

  2. #22
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    If he is the second best pitcher , great. If he is the top signee......too much risk for me.

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    It's amazing how different opinions can be on a guy. In this thread there is everything from "sign him for 1 year and $3-4 million," to "he'll command 3-4 years and $40-50 million."

    Personally I like Johnson more than just about every pitcher available this off season. Tough call between Jimenez, Santana or Johnson.

    If Johnson is looking for a 1 year make good contract I would love for the Twins to be aggressive, overspend on the first year to acquire an option year. If that means going 1 year $20 million with a second year option at $15 million I would be OK with that. I would certainly be in favor of overspending on 2 seasons if that means an option year in year 3 as well.

    IMO this kind of pitcher is exactly what the Twins should be looking for. Someone that has the potential to be a front line starter. The Twins don't have any currently and only have 1 potentially in the upper minors. After that you have to go all the way down to Kohl Stewart at A-Ball. It's pretty clear the Twins won't sign a Greinke quality player so the next best option, IMO, is to find a guy with flaws but potential and then be aggressive in pursuing him.

  4. #24
    Senior Member Triple-A goulik's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    IMO this kind of pitcher is exactly what the Twins should be looking for. Someone that has the potential to be a front line starter. The Twins don't have any currently and only have 1 potentially in the upper minors. After that you have to go all the way down to Kohl Stewart at A-Ball. It's pretty clear the Twins won't sign a Greinke quality player so the next best option, IMO, is to find a guy with flaws but potential and then be aggressive in pursuing him.
    Amen! If your not going to go for Greinke, go for these guys hard being creative on the long term! Johnson, 1 year at 7 million with mutual options for next two seasons at 15-20 for example...

  5. #25
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    Yeah, Johnson's among my favorite Twins targets. As mentioned above, he's got ace potential, and the Twins aren't going to pay for a True Ace with no question marks--which leaves gambling on high-upside guys.

    I would happily see the Twins sign Johnson to a one-year deal for up to $10-12 million. If they can get him for less or get an option year out of him, all the better. If not, you've at least signed a guy with real top-of-the-rotation potential who, if he succeeds, you can flip at the deadline or offer a Qualifying Offer at the end of the year. If he falls on his face, well, there's no such thing as a bad one-year contract.

  6. #26
    Senior Member All-Star YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    It's amazing how different opinions can be on a guy. In this thread there is everything from "sign him for 1 year and $3-4 million," to "he'll command 3-4 years and $40-50 million."

    Personally I like Johnson more than just about every pitcher available this off season. Tough call between Jimenez, Santana or Johnson.


    IMO this kind of pitcher is exactly what the Twins should be looking for. Someone that has the potential to be a front line starter. The Twins don't have any currently and only have 1 potentially in the upper minors. After that you have to go all the way down to Kohl Stewart at A-Ball. It's pretty clear the Twins won't sign a Greinke quality player so the next best option, IMO, is to find a guy with flaws but potential and then be aggressive in pursuing him.
    I'd say Jimenez is a easily the best pitcher on the market.
    Jimenez
    2013: 3.43 FIP, 2012: 5.06 (Fluke), 2011: 3.67 2010: 3.10

    Johnson (injury concerns and noticeable trend)
    2013: 4.62 FIP, 2012: 3.40 2011: 2.64 2010: 2.10

    Santana (hasn't outperformed Jimenez since 2008)
    2013: 3.93 FIP, 2012: 5.63 2011: 4.00 2010: 4.28

  7. #27
    I'm sure Terry Ryan (or the Pohlads) don't read any of this stuff. But really, you guys are the backbone of Twins fans and to a man, NONE of you have any faith in Terry Ryan. And I agree with you all 100%! He has done nothing recently to inspire any confidence with Twins fans that HE, Terry Ryan, will set the market, but rather, Ryan will intently study what OTHER people will do (thus letting OTHERS set the market) and play it safe. Our starting pitching is historically bad and talented prospects are 2-3 years away from contributing. This is why Ryan needs to sign 3 pitchers. Two decent ones with the potential to be with us 3 years from now (Jimenez, E. Santana, Hughes, Tanaka) and one "flyer" like Johnson or Johan Santana. Money should not be a problem. The Twins are at risk of losing the fan base and they might not come back until the Twins are winning. And if Ryan waits for the market to establish itself before he decides to enter the fray, "winning" will be a long way off and there will be a lot of empty seats at Target Field.

  8. #28
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse View Post
    I'd say Jimenez is a easily the best pitcher on the market.
    Jimenez
    2013: 3.43 FIP, 2012: 5.06 (Fluke), 2011: 3.67 2010: 3.10

    Johnson (injury concerns and noticeable trend)
    2013: 4.62 FIP, 2012: 3.40 2011: 2.64 2010: 2.10

    Santana (hasn't outperformed Jimenez since 2008)
    2013: 3.93 FIP, 2012: 5.63 2011: 4.00 2010: 4.28
    Average Jimenez' and Jonhson's FIPs and see who has the best. I'd argue that Johnson's 2013 FIP was a fluke more than Jimenez' 2012 FIP (compare their xFIPs and BABIPs for those 2 seasons.)

    And in 2013 Johnson played in AL East while Jimenez in AL Central that had 2 of the worst teams in baseball. Big difference.
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  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse View Post
    I'd say Jimenez is a easily the best pitcher on the market.
    Jimenez
    2013: 3.43 FIP, 2012: 5.06 (Fluke), 2011: 3.67 2010: 3.10

    Johnson (injury concerns and noticeable trend)
    2013: 4.62 FIP, 2012: 3.40 2011: 2.64 2010: 2.10

    Santana (hasn't outperformed Jimenez since 2008)
    2013: 3.93 FIP, 2012: 5.63 2011: 4.00 2010: 4.28
    Why did you pick FIP? As a predictive stat it lags behind both xFIP and SIERA, which is currently the best on the market.

    SIERA 2010 2011 2012 2013 Avg.
    Jimenez 3.68 3.74 4.85 3.74 4.00
    Santana 4.26 3.95 4.35 3.85 4.10
    Johnson 3.10 3.36 3.86 3.73 3.51


    xFIP-1 2010 2011 2012 2013 Avg.
    Jimenez 90 95 121 91 99
    Santana 103 97 108 93 100
    Johnson 76 86 95 90 87
    1 xFIP- is traditional xFIP that has been normalized so that 100 is average and for every whole number below 100 that player is 1% better than average. So an xFIP- of 90 means Johnson was 10% better than the average pitcher in 2013 (the fact that his ERA- was 152 is then attributable to unknown factors and bad luck).


    According to the two best metrics Johnson has been a better pitcher literally every season. The only thing that worries me about Johnson, and it is a pretty minor worry, is that his FB velocity has dropped 1 MPH over the last 2 seasons. Of course it still sits at 93 MPH so....

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    According to the two best metrics Johnson has been a better pitcher literally every season.
    I'm embarrassed to say that I don't know the answer to this question: Do the +/- stats incorporate Innings Pitched (or, in the case of OPS+, Plate Appearances) into their value? My assumption has always been that they do not. If that's the case, then that's pretty big factor in Johnson's potential value that's being left out.

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wookiee of the Year View Post
    I'm embarrassed to say that I don't know the answer to this question: Do the +/- stats incorporate Innings Pitched (or, in the case of OPS+, Plate Appearances) into their value? My assumption has always been that they do not. If that's the case, then that's pretty big factor in Johnson's potential value that's being left out.
    No they do not. They only take into account how well a player pitched, not how often.

    To me though, injury history and IP mean very little with the exception of a player coming off a significant injury, like TJ surgery. If there is a specific reason why a pitcher may not be ready or may not be able to pitch, like Shaun Marcum in 2014, then it is important but I don't believe in "injury prone" as a label. Players are only "healthy" until they aren't and anybody can blow their elbow out, "injury prone" or not. I understand that there are different opinions on this and I am probably in the minority.

  12. #32
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    I would think Johnson will be seeking a one year deal (no team option) as long as he believes his ace level of performance. In this case money will not be the most important factor. He can give up a few million this year as long as he can find a situation where he will have a big year. If he does that few million will be more than made up in his next contract.

    He will get one year offers. Will it be the Twins? Will he see the Twins as the best place to build his value for 2015?

  13. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    No they do not. They only take into account how well a player pitched, not how often.

    To me though, injury history and IP mean very little with the exception of a player coming off a significant injury, like TJ surgery. If there is a specific reason why a pitcher may not be ready or may not be able to pitch, like Shaun Marcum in 2014, then it is important but I don't believe in "injury prone" as a label. Players are only "healthy" until they aren't and anybody can blow their elbow out, "injury prone" or not. I understand that there are different opinions on this and I am probably in the minority.
    When over a 4 year period a player misses over a season's worth of games there should be concern. If you want to argue over who is the better player then injuries do not factor in. If you want to argue who will help a team out more the injuries matter. For 2013 Marcum's injury was not his elbow but his shoulder. So when you have to ask is this guy going to be healthy, which you have to do for Johnson, IP matters.

  14. #34
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    Also when your metric has predictive value and you call it as more accurate, what are you considering accuracy? If you say something like it means he pitched better or worse than his era and should do better then that is not much of a prediction.

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    Senior Member All-Star YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Average Jimenez' and Jonhson's FIPs and see who has the best. I'd argue that Johnson's 2013 FIP was a fluke more than Jimenez' 2012 FIP (compare their xFIPs and BABIPs for those 2 seasons.)

    And in 2013 Johnson played in AL East while Jimenez in AL Central that had 2 of the worst teams in baseball. Big difference.
    First off, I'm not sure how you can say Johnson's was more of a fluke than Jimenez's. Jimenez has already proven 2012 was a fluke with 2013 and Johnson is still a question mark.

    I'm not sure it's such a big difference. I can argue that since Jimenez has pitched more innings than Johnson over the past few seasons, that he's had a more difficult challenge than pitching to the East. I'll take a 4.00 FIP (Jimenez average) with 547 IPs* over a 3.54 FIP (Johnson average) with 333IP.

    *Jimenez has 547IP in the past 3 seasons and hasn't missed any significant time in his career. Johnson has 333IP in the past 3 years.

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    Quote Originally Posted by The Wise One View Post
    When over a 4 year period a player misses over a season's worth of games there should be concern. If you want to argue over who is the better player then injuries do not factor in. If you want to argue who will help a team out more the injuries matter. For 2013 Marcum's injury was not his elbow but his shoulder. So when you have to ask is this guy going to be healthy, which you have to do for Johnson, IP matters.
    Three points. First, IMO injuries only matter if they lead to a pre-existing condition that will prevent a player from pitching or pitching effectively. Johnson's injuries have been unconnected as far as I can tell. Now I'm not a doctor, maybe there is an underlying condition that has caused his problems in which case I would certainly have to reconsider my analysis.

    Second, I'd rather have, because I think it helps the team more, 20 starts by Johnson and 10 starts by [insert AAAA pitcher here] than 30 starts by [insert #3-#5 starter here].

    Third, many players have been the definition of durable. Until they weren't. No pitcher is immune to injuries. Hello, Johan Santana, Kyle Lohse, Roy Halladay, Brandon Webb, et. al.

    Quote Originally Posted by The Wise One View Post
    Also when your metric has predictive value and you call it as more accurate, what are you considering accuracy? If you say something like it means he pitched better or worse than his era and should do better then that is not much of a prediction.
    SIERA is currently considered to be the best ERA Estimator and Projection system available (with the exception of Steamer since I have not seen a direct comparison of the two and don't know how Steamer approaches it's projections). In Mathematical terms it scored the best in both Correlation and Root Mean Square Error in predicting future ERAs.

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    Three points. First, IMO injuries only matter if they lead to a pre-existing condition that will prevent a player from pitching or pitching effectively. Johnson's injuries have been unconnected as far as I can tell. Now I'm not a doctor, maybe there is an underlying condition that has caused his problems in which case I would certainly have to reconsider my analysis.

    Second, I'd rather have, because I think it helps the team more, 20 starts by Johnson and 10 starts by [insert AAAA pitcher here] than 30 starts by [insert #3-#5 starter here].

    Third, many players have been the definition of durable. Until they weren't. No pitcher is immune to injuries. Hello, Johan Santana, Kyle Lohse, Roy Halladay, Brandon Webb, et. al.



    SIERA is currently considered to be the best ERA Estimator and Projection system available (with the exception of Steamer since I have not seen a direct comparison of the two and don't know how Steamer approaches it's projections). In Mathematical terms it scored the best in both Correlation and Root Mean Square Error in predicting future ERAs.
    In terms of accuracy it correlates to what? 80% chance that the ERA for a pitcher with a SIERA of 3.75 will be somewhere between 3.25 and 4.25? It may be the most accurate, but again look at you table SIERA and the next year's ERA.

    The conversation was Jimenez versus Johnson. Jimmenez is now a number 3-5 starter?

    Fair enough on the comment about durability until they were not. Problem is that Johnson fits the latter category. Lohse had only one season of less than 20 starts when used as a regular starter

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Wise One View Post
    In terms of accuracy it correlates to what? 80% chance that the ERA for a pitcher with a SIERA of 3.75 will be somewhere between 3.25 and 4.25? It may be the most accurate, but again look at you table SIERA and the next year's ERA.
    I'm not sure what your point is here. We use the tools we have available to us. Are any of the metrics perfect? No, but if a point is going to be made using a metric I think the best metrics should be used. In this case that is SIERA.

    The conversation was Jimenez versus Johnson. Jimenez is now a number 3-5 starter?
    He's very volatile and as such might have a few #2 type seasons and a few #4 type seasons, so in the end yes, I think he is a #3 starter. The Twins Daily crew seems to think so as well. Their 4 years for $64 million is right in line with Edwin Jackson's contract last season as well as Kyle Lohse's, after adjusting for the additional influx of revenue and Lohse's draft pick compensation and age.

    Fair enough on the comment about durability until they were not. Problem is that Johnson fits the latter category.
    Is there any reason to think that his back problems of 2009 are going to affect his 2014 pitching? Is the fact that he had TJ surgery in 2007 relevant to 2014? He had a bone spur removed in early October and it had a 5 week recovery period. Does that mean he won't be ready to go in 2014?

    It's easy to say he's "injury prone" but that is lazy analysis. It's one thing if a guy has a reoccurring issue like Johan Santana, who has been out because of his shoulder for multiple seasons. That is obviously a huge red flag. Josh Johnson is a totally different case though. None of his injuries appear to be related. They are all seemingly random.

  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    I'm not sure what your point is here. We use the tools we have available to us. Are any of the metrics perfect? No, but if a point is going to be made using a metric I think the best metrics should be used. In this case that is SIERA.


    He's very volatile and as such might have a few #2 type seasons and a few #4 type seasons, so in the end yes, I think he is a #3 starter. The Twins Daily crew seems to think so as well. Their 4 years for $64 million is right in line with Edwin Jackson's contract last season as well as Kyle Lohse's, after adjusting for the additional influx of revenue and Lohse's draft pick compensation and age.



    Is there any reason to think that his back problems of 2009 are going to affect his 2014 pitching? Is the fact that he had TJ surgery in 2007 relevant to 2014? He had a bone spur removed in early October and it had a 5 week recovery period. Does that mean he won't be ready to go in 2014?

    It's easy to say he's "injury prone" but that is lazy analysis. It's one thing if a guy has a reoccurring issue like Johan Santana, who has been out because of his shoulder for multiple seasons. That is obviously a huge red flag. Josh Johnson is a totally different case though. None of his injuries appear to be related. They are all seemingly random.
    You still can't answer how accurate SIERA is. It gives you a ballpark figure what an ERA might be. So to say it is the best metric. It really doesn't measure anything in terms of future success. It fails by definition of a metric. But use it anyway to say one pitcher was better than the other. BTW, one study showed that after 200 innings all the metrics were about the same.

    Johnson. Chips in the elbow. 2 stints on the dl for triceps issues. One season lost due to shoulder inflammation, and one TJ. Only 2 seasons where he pitched more than 30 games. I never said he is injury prone. I bring up the statistic that he does not pitch for a whole season. You take it to mean what you want. Johnson has had 2 great years of pitching as has Jimenez . Jimenez has had 1 bad year and 3 above average years. A mid 3 WAR pitcher is a number 2 on most staffs. Not pitching at all gives you a number 6 starter.
    An icentive based contract with it vesting for IP would be good. Benadino said his agent wants a multi year contract. He is out of luck that Moreno might not be a free spender on pitchers

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    Quote Originally Posted by The Wise One View Post
    You still can't answer how accurate SIERA is. It gives you a ballpark figure what an ERA might be. So to say it is the best metric. It really doesn't measure anything in terms of future success. It fails by definition of a metric. But use it anyway to say one pitcher was better than the other. BTW, one study showed that after 200 innings all the metrics were about the same.
    Again, I'm not saying that SIERA is perfect, only that it is the best available. If we can't use any metrics because "it doesn't measure future success" (which is BS by the way) then how do you suggest we judge pitchers? Could you post a link to the aforementioned study? I'd love to read it.

    Johnson. Chips in the elbow. 2 stints on the dl for triceps issues. One season lost due to shoulder inflammation, and one TJ. Only 2 seasons where he pitched more than 30 games. I never said he is injury prone. I bring up the statistic that he does not pitch for a whole season. You take it to mean what you want. Johnson has had 2 great years of pitching as has Jimenez . Jimenez has had 1 bad year and 3 above average years. A mid 3 WAR pitcher is a number 2 on most staffs. Not pitching at all gives you a number 6 starter.
    An icentive based contract with it vesting for IP would be good. Benadino said his agent wants a multi year contract. He is out of luck that Moreno might not be a free spender on pitchers
    I'm not really sure how to respond to this. You state that he has missed an entire seasons worth of starts over the last 4 years. Then you list every injury he has had in his career that has caused him to miss time. Now you claim you you're not implying he's injury prone?

    I have no idea what you're talking about w/r to Berardino. There is a quote from Johnson's agent about wanting a 1 year deal and he suggests it should be around $14 million. I also have no idea who Moreno is in this context.

    It's clear that you value "health" and innings pitched in previous years. As I've already stated, and tried to explain why multiple times, I don't. I'm sure I'm in the minority. Let's move on.

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