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Thread: Article: Rumors and Expectations

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rosterman View Post
    Not to mention back of the rotation guys like:

    Logan, Wimmers, Dean in 2014 for example.

    Plus the Twins will still have names like Hendriks, Albers, Diamond, Worley, Pressly hanging around.

    Maybe Hermsen will rebound.

    You would hope hat by 2016 the Twins would have a Rays caliber rotation of homegrown tlent with bodies to trade.
    Another name missing is Lewis Thorpe. He should be showing up in the 2016/2017 crop.

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by jharaldson View Post
    There are a number of posts in this thread that imply in the next couple of years we will have enough guys from the minors graduate to the majors that we won't have spots available for any free agents and that free agent pitchers may actually inhibit good pitchers from coming up. I did a quick analysis of the past 5 World Series winners and looked for guys that met the following criteria:

    - Started 10 or more games for team that year
    - Signed to a major league free agent contract or traded as a major league player.

    I found the following:

    Boston 2013
    Lackey
    Dempster
    Peavy


    San Fransisco 2012
    Zito


    St. Louis 2011
    Lohse
    Carpenter
    Jackson
    Westbrook


    San Fransisco 2010
    Zito
    Wellemeyer


    New York 2009
    Sabathia
    Burnett
    Pettitte

    On average the teams that win the World Series have about half of their staff made of Free Agent pitchers or big trade acquisitions. I don't think it is realistic to think that we will have a staff full of minor league developed talent (+Correia for 1 year) and actually win anything.
    There are some problems with this analysis. The context of the discussion here is the viability of free agency and trades to turn around a team immediately.

    2013 – Boston traded for Peavy mid season for a playoff run which is a very different set of circumstances. He had little to do with their post season success. He got pounded in his league championship series start. Dempster had a poor a year. The fact that he was on the roster when they won is hardly indicative of that acquisition contributing to their WS run. He was 8-9 for a dominant club with a 4.57 ERA. He pitched 3 innings in the post season with an ERA of 9.

    2012 – Barry Zito had a WAR of .8. and an ERA of 4.15. He really sucked in 2013. He is actually a very good example of why you don’t want to sign long contract with free agent SPs. His cumulative WAR was 5.9 in 7 seasons for $126M. Yuk! Yet you use him as an example of success.

    2011 - Carpenter was reclamation project after being out in 2003. Good move on the cardinals part but it does nothing to support the argument of signing the 5+ year guys to huge contracts. Westbrook pitched 116 innings with a K/9 of 5.11 with an ERA of 4.66. Jackson was a rental for a contending team.

    2010 – Wellmeyer was a complete non-factor. It is silly to even include him. He was 3-5 with an ERA of 5.68 and WAR of -.8. He only pitched 58.2 innings. Zito has already been discussed.

    2009 – Well, the Yankees can afford to buy a SP staff. They literally could buy an entire starting 5 and still have the Twins budget remaining to pay the remainder of the team.

    You also fail to consider that these teams are 1st, 3rd, 7th, and 9th in terms of revenue. That is going to allow them to approach free agency in a very different way as compared to the Twins or other mid market clubs.

  3. #23
    "I have no problem with the concept of the Twins spending. I just think fans need to understand these guys that are likely to get 4-5 year contracts worth $60 to $100 million are not the sure-fire aces their contracts will imply. If the Twins sign one of them to crazy money, I’ll hope like crazy he stays healthy and pitches consistently well. I just don’t see an arm in this free agent class that is worth breaking the bank for.

    Thankfully we have this comment section so in the years to come we can all go back and remember what we said, what we would have offered and stand by those comments over the life of these contracts." -- Seth

    Like you said, Seth. Who knows. It is fun to look back, just this last season being a great example where so many of us wanted the Twins to sign Myers or Saunders or any number of other guys that didn't pan out. As a team, one factor you always have to look at is how much salary you can eat that wil be non-productive. Recently the Twins ahd Balckburn. They had Toshi for two year, plus the posting fee. You paid Nathan for 1.5 non-productive seasons. That does magnify when you have 2-3 large contracts out there -- Morneau for example. Maybe you have insurance and luck out. Maybe you have Joe Mays collecting paychecks. Possibly you sign a Pavano who just eats payroll and is unable to be moved. Being an armchair general manager is the easy job, dealing with real monies and revenue is a hard job. Your budget does allow you to take risks, but, yes, we fans often forget that we have to realistically look down the line...what that contract is doing two/three/four years from now (i.e. Mauer, for example). Less of a risk on prospects and AAA talent, you just replace them with equal value and hope for a few winners that all click together.

  4. #24
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    to major league ready:

    Who said signing a FA this year has to fix the team for only the next year? Or that it has to fix all of their problems? Why can't they add a good FA pitcher for 3-5 year deal, and have him around in 2 years when hopefully they have more talent around him?

    And, I don't get the argument. Since a FA can't fix the team completely right now, they should not sign one at all?
    Lighten up Francis....

  5. #25
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    rosterman: who on these boards other than 1 or 2 people, has not commented on the contract situation 2-4 years out when suggesting the team sign players? They get even more money off the books next year. They get more revenue from the league. They have unspent budget. No one needs a raise next year that matters. No one needs a raise the following year, or even the year after that.

    There is a ton of risk with prospects, they don't usually work out. Unless you are better than other teams at developing them, not as good, but significantly better, that route is super risky.
    Lighten up Francis....

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    rosterman: who on these boards other than 1 or 2 people, has not commented on the contract situation 2-4 years out when suggesting the team sign players? They get even more money off the books next year. They get more revenue from the league. They have unspent budget. No one needs a raise next year that matters. No one needs a raise the following year, or even the year after that.

    There is a ton of risk with prospects, they don't usually work out. Unless you are better than other teams at developing them, not as good, but significantly better, that route is super risky.
    Is there any less risk with signing free agents that are being discussed here?

    How many Free Agent pitchers worked out last year?

    And for how long?

    If I get a prospect who turns out, I get salary arbitration years too.

    And how do you assess 'risk'? Not winning the World Series? How many wins? This year? Next Year?

    What are some examples of good Free Agent signings? What made it a good signing?

    Admittedly, I struggle with seeing being 5-10 wins 'better' because we signed 3 guys at $40M+ per season (combined total)...for just a little better WAR (wins above replacement).

    When at least, with a 23-25 year old..he could be something and if he gets expensive trade him off at peak value (this is very Billy Beane separates himself from other GM's).

    I see that approach, unless I'm the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox...and other top market teams...as the most obvious way to go.

    I could be wrong. So I'm trying to see the value or 'less risk' involved with signing these other guys?

    Is going 71 and 91 better than 66-96? Is going 74-88 with $40M more locked up in salaries better than top 5 draft picks each of those 4 seasons?

    The Pirates had losing seasons for 20 years...the Twins for 3...and people are getting their undies in a wad.
    Last edited by twinsfan34; 11-12-2013 at 01:01 PM.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rosterman View Post
    "I have no problem with the concept of the Twins spending. I just think fans need to understand these guys that are likely to get 4-5 year contracts worth $60 to $100 million are not the sure-fire aces their contracts will imply. If the Twins sign one of them to crazy money, I’ll hope like crazy he stays healthy and pitches consistently well. I just don’t see an arm in this free agent class that is worth breaking the bank for.

    Thankfully we have this comment section so in the years to come we can all go back and remember what we said, what we would have offered and stand by those comments over the life of these contracts." -- Seth

    Like you said, Seth. Who knows. It is fun to look back, just this last season being a great example where so many of us wanted the Twins to sign Myers or Saunders or any number of other guys that didn't pan out. As a team, one factor you always have to look at is how much salary you can eat that wil be non-productive. Recently the Twins ahd Balckburn. They had Toshi for two year, plus the posting fee. You paid Nathan for 1.5 non-productive seasons. That does magnify when you have 2-3 large contracts out there -- Morneau for example. Maybe you have insurance and luck out. Maybe you have Joe Mays collecting paychecks. Possibly you sign a Pavano who just eats payroll and is unable to be moved. Being an armchair general manager is the easy job, dealing with real monies and revenue is a hard job. Your budget does allow you to take risks, but, yes, we fans often forget that we have to realistically look down the line...what that contract is doing two/three/four years from now (i.e. Mauer, for example). Less of a risk on prospects and AAA talent, you just replace them with equal value and hope for a few winners that all click together.
    Where is the "like" button.
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  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
    The Pirates had losing seasons for 20 years...the Twins for 3...and people are getting their undies in a wad.
    Context is important, but saying people can't complain or be frustrated because other organizations were worse isn't a very compelling argument.

    Also, I don't get the debate about whether it has to be prospects OR free agents. The Twins are in a position to acquire both.

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
    Is there any less risk with signing free agents that are being discussed here?

    How many Free Agent pitchers worked out last year?

    And for how long?

    If I get a prospect who turns out, I get salary arbitration years too.

    And how do you assess 'risk'? Not winning the World Series? How many wins? This year? Next Year?

    What are some examples of good Free Agent signings? What made it a good signing?

    Admittedly, I struggle with seeing being 5-10 wins 'better' because we signed 3 guys at $40M+ per season (combined total)...for just a little better WAR (wins above replacement).

    When at least, with a 23-25 year old..he could be something and if he gets expensive trade him off at peak value (this is very Billy Beane separates himself from other GM's).

    I see that approach, unless I'm the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox...and other top market teams...as the most obvious way to go.

    I could be wrong. So I'm trying to see the value or 'less risk' involved with signing these other guys?

    Is going 71 and 91 better than 66-96? Is going 74-88 with $40M more locked up in salaries better than top 5 draft picks each of those 4 seasons?

    The Pirates had losing seasons for 20 years...the Twins for 3...and people are getting their undies in a wad.
    Which 23-25 yr olds should the Twins acquire, and how do they get them for nothing but money?
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    Which 23-25 yr olds should the Twins acquire, and how do they get them for nothing but money?
    I never implied to acquire them (but sounds good to me).

    It was to play them.

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alex View Post
    Context is important, but saying people can't complain or be frustrated because other organizations were worse isn't a very compelling argument.

    Also, I don't get the debate about whether it has to be prospects OR free agents. The Twins are in a position to acquire both.
    The Pirates comment...as was the intent of the whole comment is the 'quick fix' nature.

    What will acquiring the top 3 free agent pitchers in this class do for the Twins?

    I did a write up concerning our pathetic offense...did you know with 3 Clayton Kershaw's last year (going of of their game performances)...the Twins still wouldn't have made the playoffs. We were that bad.

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
    I never implied to acquire them (but sounds good to me).

    It was to play them.
    Who, specifically?
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

  13. #33
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    I like how every FA is bad, and every prospect works out in most of these arguments against FA signings.

    the risk of prospects is that nearly all of them are not good MLB players.

    But the chief asks a good question, where do all these 23-25 year olds come from? I don't understand why you'd wait 5-7 years for that many to work out, when you can try to add good players for nothing more than money, money they have.
    Lighten up Francis....

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
    The Pirates comment...as was the intent of the whole comment is the 'quick fix' nature.

    What will acquiring the top 3 free agent pitchers in this class do for the Twins?

    I did a write up concerning our pathetic offense...did you know with 3 Clayton Kershaw's last year (going of of their game performances)...the Twins still wouldn't have made the playoffs. We were that bad.
    You can't fix every problem in 1 year, does that mean they should not fix any? And, if they had three Kershaws, maybe instead of trading Span and Revere, they have them, and they deal a prospect for a legit DH/1B?
    Lighten up Francis....

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    Who, specifically?
    Kyle Gibson. Alex Meyer. Trevor May. Vance Worley. Sam Deduno. et al.

    When you start to turn the ship. I'm all for spending to add pieces. 2016, 2017, and 2018. I could see adding 1-2 of these FA pitchers no problem.


    but back to my question...

    How do you assess value and risk with the free agent signings? What makes it 'successful'?

    How could this be a successful offseason in terms of results EOY 2014 and EOY 2015?

  16. #36
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    I'd say it is successful if they add youth for hte future, get some old guys where they aren't blocking anyone REALLY GOOD, and win more games than this year. I don't expect them to win the WS next year.....but winning 5-10 more games, and getting younger where they can, that would be a better year.

    Well, I can see a path to maybe winning more than 81 games, but they won't be taking that. I'm trying to be realistic here.
    Lighten up Francis....

  17. #37
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    I don't like the term or even the thought of "Blocking Someone". If a player plays himself into a job... It's his. If someone isn't playing themselves into the job. We shouldn't be putting them in the lineup every day anyway. Joe Mauer and Brian Dozier were the only players who earned everyday status in my mind in 2013. And Dozier may be bad in 2014... We just don't know yet.

    I want... honest to god... actual... down to earth... dogfights... for positions with this club. If we bring in a couple of players to help that happen I'm really OK with that. Just don't bring in players expecting them to have the job and keep the job because we paid them money and let them keep the job after sub-par play.

    With that said... I'm very unimpressed with the free agents available at the top end of the scale.

    Just bring in competition for positions and competition comes at different salary levels.

    The way I see it... Twins players in 2013 were "Blocking themselves and themselves only".

    Josh Willingham in 2012 OPS .890
    Josh Willingham in 2013 OPS .709

    Ryan Doumit... Trevor Plouffe... Justin Morneau... Did they deserve to play every day? I don't think so. We just didn't have any decent options to replace them with.

    Which Willingham will we see in 2014?

    If it's the 2012 Willingham... Suit him up... If it's the 2013 Willingham... Bench him, cut him and eat the 7 million. But we got to have someone ready to fight him for that LF Spot. Clete Thomas ain't that guy.

    If for some reason... We actually end up with two guys who can play LF and are doing the job. That's a good problem to have but we are a ways away from that good problem to have.

    I continue to not care about the payroll number... I care about players stepping up to the plate and earning a job period. I will worry about payroll when we actually have players worth retaining.
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  18. #38
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    so you'd sign a 3B because Plouffe was bad last year? I'd not spend money that way. but I gotta say, that and your two names are about the only ones I am worried about "blocking" right now.
    Lighten up Francis....

  19. #39
    The Twins are negotiating with AJ. Just heard it on Barreiro. Great signing if it happens.

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    I'd say it is successful if they add youth for hte future, get some old guys where they aren't blocking anyone REALLY GOOD, and win more games than this year. I don't expect them to win the WS next year.....but winning 5-10 more games, and getting younger where they can, that would be a better year.

    Well, I can see a path to maybe winning more than 81 games, but they won't be taking that. I'm trying to be realistic here.
    Mike, you and the guys would be happy with 5-10 more wins? I have a really, really hard time believing that. Personally, I won't be happy until we contend for the Central again. You are correct in that they won't be taking your chosen path and signing any top tier free agents. The Twins do indeed have money coming out of their ears, but alas, there is no value in that segment of the market. The dumpster diving market on the other hand, appears to be larger than last years and does contain some opportunities for the leery shopper. As I see it, Ryan will give our favorite team a chance to win 81 games next season, assuming they get more than their fair share of lucky hops. If at All-Star time we are losing the game of inches, look for Ryan to retreat to the safe land of top 10 draft choices.
    Last edited by howieramone; 11-12-2013 at 05:05 PM.

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