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Thread: Matt Garza?!

  1. #61
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    Mediocre or bust? Lets look at that word mediocre, it means average? slightly above or below.
    If we have a starting rotaion that is mediocre, that would mean it is ranked some where between 13th and 18th....a big jump from worst in all of baseball, so I to say ....
    Mediocre or Bust

  2. #62
    Senior Member All-Star YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
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    Nolasco is just as good a pitcher as Garza in my book and, on top of that, he may cost less. Garza is only one year younger and has some injury questions.

    Nolasco:
    2013- 3.58xfip; 3.0 WAR
    2012*- 4.17xfip; 2.5 WAR
    2011-3.55xfip, 3.1 WAR

    * This is the only time his xfip has exceeded 3.7 in the past 5 years.

    Garza
    2013-3.73xfip, 2.0WAR
    2012-3.59xfip, 1.1 WAR
    2011*-3.19xfip, 4.9 WAR

    * Big statistic outlier where performace peaked.

    I'd choose Garza given the choice since his fastball is about 3mph faster than Nolasco's and has been much more effective. The xfip numbers are pretty similar and neither have pitched in the AL for some time (Nolasco never). Jimenez is better than both, however, since he has pitched in the AL Central, been a workhorse, induces more strikeouts, and the youngest.

    Those guys are about all in the same tier, but to summarize my rankings.
    1. Jimenez
    2. Garza
    3. Nolasco

    I'd give 4 million/yr more to Jimenez than Nolasco.
    1.5 million/year more to Garza than Nolasco.

    Jimenez I could give a 5 year too, but Garza and Nolasco probably 4.

    In comparing Jimenez to Sanchez I think his value is a little less. I'd set the max offer to 5/85 for him. Going by what I said earlier, that's 4/52 for Nolasco and 4/58 for Garza. They'll probably need a little more considering the one year less, so I suppose you could round them to 4/55 and 4/60.
    Last edited by YourHouseIsMyHouse; 11-16-2013 at 01:53 PM.

  3. #63
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    Weren't the Twins linked last year to Ryan Dempster for similar years/money, much like Arroyo this offseason? Maybe a little less strong, but I remember kicking the tires on Dempster.

    And I thought I heard the Twins as possibilities for Edwin Jackson too -- again not as strong as some of these Nolasco reports, but then again, Nolasco is with a Twins-friendly agent and the Twins apparently haven't made a formal offer to anybody yet, so many of these reports sound premature.

    The Garza talk sounds like lip service, maybe just driving his price up. Johan too, although he at least might have a bit of desperation on his side, which might make him a good match for these Twins.

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse View Post
    Nolasco is just as good a pitcher as Garza in my book and, on top of that, he may cost less. Garza is only one year younger and has some injury questions.

    Nolasco:
    2013- 3.58xfip; 3.0 WAR
    2012*- 4.17xfip; 2.5 WAR
    2011-3.55xfip, 3.1 WAR

    * This is the only time his xfip has exceeded 3.7 in the past 5 years.

    Garza
    2013-3.73xfip, 2.0WAR
    2012-3.59xfip, 1.1 WAR
    2011*-3.19xfip, 4.9 WAR

    * Big statistic outlier where performace peaked.

    I'd choose Garza given the choice since his fastball is about 3mph faster than Nolasco's and has been much more effective. The xfip numbers are pretty similar and neither have pitched in the AL for some time (Nolasco never). Jimenez is better than both, however, since he has pitched in the AL Central, been a workhorse, induces more strikeouts, and the youngest.

    Those guys are about all in the same tier, but to summarize my rankings.
    1. Jimenez
    2. Garza
    3. Nolasco

    I'd give 4 million/yr more to Jimenez than Nolasco.
    1.5 million/year more to Garza than Nolasco.

    Jimenez I could give a 5 year too, but Garza and Nolasco probably 4.

    In comparing Jimenez to Sanchez I think his value is a little less. I'd set the max offer to 5/85 for him. Going by what I said earlier, that's 4/52 for Nolasco and 4/58 for Garza. They'll probably need a little more considering the one year less, so I suppose you could round them to 4/55 and 4/60.
    I think you are over relying on advanced stats. Nolasco has a 0.62 difference between his xFIP and his ERA over his career. I don't know why he underperforms xFIP but it's pretty clear that xFIP, FIP and fangraphs WAR are not the evaluation tools to use for Nolasco.

    I also like Jimenez regardless of the 2nd rd draft pick required.

  5. #65
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Twins Twerp's Avatar
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    I DO NOT want to give up the second round pick. I think the Twins are thinking the same way. Go hard at Arroyo, Garza, and Nolasco. If you have to go five for Garza so be it. If we end up with 2 out of the three, I will be jacked. Also Arroyo's leadership for the next 2 years would be much needed when dealing with Meyer and May. Soft-tossers or not, they would all three be better than Diamond or Correia.

  6. #66
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    OMG, in this post at least, can we say drama queens?

    "the sky is falling!" Lol

    Attendence is down, despite advance ticket sales. Three seasons of not so great baseball have seen to that. Interest is still very high, and that is proven by the very blogs that each of us thrive for daily. Not to mention the new media revenue that is going to bring in an additional $25M to each team this next season and beyond. (52% of is another $13M to spend along with the roughly $24/25M the Twins have shed since last season) Do we need at this time to also remind one another of the $15-16M the Twins have expiring next off season?

    The Pohlads have stated there is money to spend this season. TR, as per usual is attempting to be smart and playing things close to the vest, as he should, but has also hinted at actually spending real money!

    With some decent talent at the MLB level, with one of the best minor league systems in all of baseball, attendance sliding (and revenue) and money to spend, you think TR and the Pohlads don't recognize an opportunity?

    Even .500 baseball with great talent ready to break through is a HUGE commodity.

    No formal offers yet? PLEASE. Rumors only yet people. NOBODY has made formal offers to anyone yet that we know of, with the exception of minor deals or their on FA's.

    Just a little perspective while we wait and see.

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Twins Twerp View Post
    I DO NOT want to give up the second round pick. I think the Twins are thinking the same way. Go hard at Arroyo, Garza, and Nolasco. If you have to go five for Garza so be it. If we end up with 2 out of the three, I will be jacked. Also Arroyo's leadership for the next 2 years would be much needed when dealing with Meyer and May. Soft-tossers or not, they would all three be better than Diamond or Correia.
    You are greatly overvaluing a 2nd rd pick if you are going to eliminate some very good players from a very competitive FA market.

  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    You are greatly overvaluing a 2nd rd pick if you are going to eliminate some very good players from a very competitive FA market.
    Very good? Who is very good? Heck, who is good? This free agent class is horrid. While several of the pitchers are better then what we have, that isn't saying much, they won't turn this franchise around.

    I'm a big draft person and I would hate to sacrifice a draft pick but for the right FA I don't mind. I just don't see anyone worth it.

  9. #69
    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    You are greatly overvaluing a 2nd rd pick if you are going to eliminate some very good players from a very competitive FA market.
    Grant Paulsen from Baseball America was discussing the available FA pitchers on his radio show on MLB Radio yesterday. A caller asked if was worth it to give up a draft pick for this group of relatively weak and risky SPs. His answer was it depends on if you are contending or what point you are in a rebuild. He immediately followed that point with the Twins as an example of a team that should not be giving up draft picks at this point in a rebuild.

    If we go back over the past 10 years, will we find any examples of teams in the Twins position in terms of rebuilding that signed free agent SPs that required 5 year deals? Pitchers on the wrong side of 3 tend to decline. Obviously, some perform at a high level into their late 30s but the odds are low. On the other hand, what happens if you sign Jimenez to 5 years at 17-18M and he goes back to an ERA+ in the 70s like he was in 2011-2012 or even worse as he approaches 35 years of age. You’re not trading him even if you give him away.

  10. #70
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Who was the last 2nd round pick the twins had who really made a difference?

  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Who was the last 2nd round pick the twins had who really made a difference?
    Butch Wynegar?
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/dr...e=franch_round

    Aren't Eades and Melo the number 2 starters of the future? Is Goodrum the shortstop of the future? Chargois the closer of the future?
    Aren't 2 round picks useful in trades for player? Get something for a prospect you know isn't going to work before someone else realizes it?

  12. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    Yeah, me too. I'm with ya, Brian, unless something else comes up. Mehhhh.
    Replace the like button with a mehhhh button? Or perhaps have them both?

  13. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Who was the last 2nd round pick the twins had who really made a difference?
    How about we change this to even first round pick that wasn't in the last two years?

  14. #74
    Senior Member All-Star YourHouseIsMyHouse's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    Butch Wynegar?
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/dr...e=franch_round

    Aren't Eades and Melo the number 2 starters of the future? Is Goodrum the shortstop of the future? Chargois the closer of the future?
    Aren't 2 round picks useful in trades for player? Get something for a prospect you know isn't going to work before someone else realizes it?
    The difference is Ubaldo already is a #2/#3 starter and Eades has a small chance of becoming one. Melotakis doesn't have a very high ceiling as a starter and the other two are nothing to get excited over. You trade a top 20-30 organization prospect for a good starter+contract (which shouldn't matter too much at this point).

  15. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by DocBauer View Post
    OMG, in this post at least, can we say drama queens?

    "the sky is falling!" Lol

    Attendence is down, despite advance ticket sales. Three seasons of not so great baseball have seen to that. Interest is still very high, and that is proven by the very blogs that each of us thrive for daily. Not to mention the new media revenue that is going to bring in an additional $25M to each team this next season and beyond. (52% of is another $13M to spend along with the roughly $24/25M the Twins have shed since last season) Do we need at this time to also remind one another of the $15-16M the Twins have expiring next off season?

    The Pohlads have stated there is money to spend this season. TR, as per usual is attempting to be smart and playing things close to the vest, as he should, but has also hinted at actually spending real money!

    With some decent talent at the MLB level, with one of the best minor league systems in all of baseball, attendance sliding (and revenue) and money to spend, you think TR and the Pohlads don't recognize an opportunity?

    Even .500 baseball with great talent ready to break through is a HUGE commodity.

    No formal offers yet? PLEASE. Rumors only yet people. NOBODY has made formal offers to anyone yet that we know of, with the exception of minor deals or their on FA's.

    Just a little perspective while we wait and see.
    A little perspective. Attendance soared after the 2 WS years. Attendance crept up a little for Molitor's farewell tour. Attendance crept up during the winning years in the dome but was nothing like the WS years. Target Field sold out because it was the new toy much like Target Center for the Timberwolves years ago. When it comes to baseball the town supports a winner. .500 is not that.

  16. #76
    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Who was the last 2nd round pick the twins had who really made a difference?
    The pick will be in the early 40s. If you look at the top prospects list on MLB, four of the top 15 fall right around that number. Four of the top 15 were international signings.
    Tiajuan Walker (43)
    Nick Castellanos (44)
    N. Syndergaard (38)
    Billy Hamilton (57)

    The draft pick is really an additional reason not to sign 5 year guys, especially the group were talking about getting 5 years. (with the exception of Tanaka/Garza) The benefit is that IF the guy performs we get to 500 or even maybe a little better. They MIGHT make a 2-3 game difference if they really perform the way you hope. For those couple of wins you take on the risk of them being dead weight in the last couple years of their contracts when we could possibly be contending. The opportunity cost is the $18M that you could have invested to should be much improved by the presence of Meyer, Buxton, Sano, Arcia, Dozier,Rosario and May. No, they might not all pan out but the odds are pretty good with that group and some others. Do you want the salary to add when these players are contributing or now to a team that is still a couple years a way?

  17. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    I think you are over relying on advanced stats. Nolasco has a 0.62 difference between his xFIP and his ERA over his career. I don't know why he underperforms xFIP but it's pretty clear that xFIP, FIP and fangraphs WAR are not the evaluation tools to use for Nolasco.

    I also like Jimenez regardless of the 2nd rd draft pick required.
    Is it possible that the difference is due to the defense behind him? Isn't that the point of the FIP variations?

  18. #78
    Senior Member Triple-A maxisagod's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    Butch Wynegar?
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/dr...e=franch_round

    Aren't Eades and Melo the number 2 starters of the future? Is Goodrum the shortstop of the future? Chargois the closer of the future?
    Aren't 2 round picks useful in trades for player? Get something for a prospect you know isn't going to work before someone else realizes it?
    Huh, Randy Bush only collected a 1.4 career war? Interesting. Second round picks, especially high second round picks have value, but the proper lens to look at it is through a trade. A trade for a large contact in which the Twins would have to give up a low minor guy with a high ceiling. One year out, a lot of those guys make top 20 prospect lists. Some free agents look like no brainers in that view, other guys it doesn't make sense.

    What makes this year hard to figure out, is if the Twins are rebuilding, but there competitive timeline is a couple years out. Does it make sense to starting buying free agents with a competitive team around the corner or to keep collecting prospects till the team starts showing they're ready to win. Again if we were ready to compete next year or if we were 3 years out this would be a much easier answer. I'm inclined to lean toward option number three: Target free agents who don't cost draft picks (which it appears is the Twins plan too).

  19. #79
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    When it comes to baseball the town supports a winner. .500 is not that.
    No, but it may slow the bleeding.

  20. #80
    Super Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    Replace the like button with a mehhhh button? Or perhaps have them both?
    Could go either way on that. Meh.

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