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Thread: Baseball Prospectus Goes Twins Crazy!

  1. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    115 K's and 31 BB's is a pretty big reason for a concern.
    Reason for concern yes - Big reason for concern no. I asked this question earlier - Who are you comparing his 20% K rate to? I need comps..........

    Everybody talks about him being a college player and being old for Low A. I believe he was the second youngest college player in the entire 2012 draft. Let's start putting things in perspective folks. Every prospect doesn't need to be 22 years old when you bring him up to the MLB level. To the previous statement that he doesn't show the ability to improve: - I believe that he has shown the ability to work out kinks (Ex: 30% to 20% K Rate).

    His contact rate has improved as well. Great - No, But much better Yes. How much more does a player need to improve - to get some love? I want comps........... How is he not worthy of praise? League MVP - Top HR & RBI Leader - 2nd in League in Runs scored. Can't score unless you get on base - Intangibles matter too. The only reason for a concern about Walks (BB) is that you want him to improve his ability to help his teams score runs. Definitely would help! But............ when you lead your team every year in Runs scored and your team has the best record in their respective league every year. In this case - Best record in Minor leagues - What more do you want before you give him some credit? Give me comps as to who you know better? I guarentee they are Very High Prospects on their respective teams (as should he be).

  2. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post

    According to Fangraphs Statistics for Adam Brett Walker - He improved his K% rate from 30.2% (2012) to 20.8% (2013). Are you telling me that 20.8% is high for a slugger - even at Low A? I don't think so. That does not reflect huge contact issues. Work to be done - YES - "Huge" contact issues - No. Who in the world are you comparing him to?

    115 K's and 31 BB's is a pretty big reason for a concern.
    Adam Walker is almost a year younger than the player average there.

    Another Walker, Larry, had a strikeout rate of 28.7% at the same Midwest League in 1986. He went on to win 3 batting titles.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/mi...d=walker001lar

    Chris Davis, HR champ this past season, had 29.4% K-rate at A+ in 2007.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/mi...d=davis-003chr

    Joey Votto's strikeout rate at class A Midwest league in 2004 was 23.2%, he was 20.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/mi...d=votto-001jos

    Pedro Alvarez, who despite playing at Prestigious Vanderbilt (not Jacksonville St like Walker), at one year older, age 22, at class A+ had a strikeout rate of 24.6% despite playing in a league that wasn't as easy to strikeout in as Walker's 2013 Midwest Lg. Oh yeah, Alvarez, he was the home run champion in 2013 in the NL.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/mi...d=alvare001ped

    The guy improved his K% rate 10% from year to year, so in 2 years he won't strikeout at all?

    Yes, that's just as reasonable a projection as he won't end up as much. Scouts like Walker. He was only 21 this past season, turned 22 in late October.

    The list goes on and on. Matt Kemp, Giancarlo Stanton, Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell.

    I can find no less than 50 guys with worse strikeout rates who went on to hit or will hit more than 300 MLB home runs in the last 20 years.

    If Walker hits 300 HR I'd be ecstatic.

    Another, Paul Goldschmidt. One year older, at age 22, 26.9% K% at A+.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/mi...d=goldsc001pau
    Last edited by twinsfan34; 11-19-2013 at 10:53 PM.

  3. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by lightfoot789 View Post
    Reason for concern yes - Big reason for concern no. I asked this question earlier - Who are you comparing his 20% K rate to? I need comps..........

    Everybody talks about him being a college player and being old for Low A. I believe he was the second youngest college player in the entire 2012 draft. Let's start putting things in perspective folks. Every prospect doesn't need to be 22 years old when you bring him up to the MLB level. To the previous statement that he doesn't show the ability to improve: - I believe that he has shown the ability to work out kinks (Ex: 30% to 20% K Rate).

    His contact rate has improved as well. Great - No, But much better Yes. How much more does a player need to improve - to get some love? I want comps........... How is he not worthy of praise? League MVP - Top HR & RBI Leader - 2nd in League in Runs scored. Can't score unless you get on base - Intangibles matter too. The only reason for a concern about Walks (BB) is that you want him to improve his ability to help his teams score runs. Definitely would help! But............ when you lead your team every year in Runs scored and your team has the best record in their respective league every year. In this case - Best record in Minor leagues - What more do you want before you give him some credit? Give me comps as to who you know better? I guarentee they are Very High Prospects on their respective teams (as should he be).
    Tons of guys his age or younger have posted that kind of power in A ball with high K rates and even better walk rates. Angel Morales, Matt Olson, Jacob Wilson, Alberth Martinez, Anthony Garcia, Cameron Garfield, Benjamin Mcmahan etc. You can literally pick any year in A ball history and find a dozen guys 22 and younger who post ISO over .200 w/a 20% or worse krate. Some of them make it to the majors. Most don't.

    No one is dissing him, he's a nice player to have in your system and a very good 3rd round pick. But he hasn't put his tools together yet to be ranked highly in the prospect lists. As Parks says, he's loaded with tools and if he manages to put everything together, he's a first division player. That is fantastic and I really hope it happens. But he's not close to there yet. The Twins will give him tons of time to get there but he needs to show plate discipline in both improving his krate (which he has started to do) and his walk rate (which he hasn't). If he can't fix his plate discipline, he won't get past AA.

  4. #84
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    Another one closer to home.

    Pedro Florimon. Same age 21, class A ball.

    Hit 0 home runs in 305 PA while having a K% of 31.8% and a BB% of 8.8%.

    5 years later, at age 26, in the pros for the Twins (2013).

    He hit 9 HR in 446 PA, with a K% of 25.8% and a BB% of 7.3%.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/mi...d=florim001ped

  5. #85
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    It's frustrating that you fixate only on the K's. The issue is that he doesn't walk also. Out of your examples only Chris Davis had similar K and BB rates throughout his MiLB career. Walker posted similar rates for his season in the midwest league and then he became a walking machine after that.

    And nobody is writing him off. He's a unique blend of physical tools and raw hitting skill.

    The big problem is that low of a walk rate (with the K's) is that he is not looking for his pitch and swinging at tough pitches out of the K zone. This wasn't an issue in low A but that was due to him just flat out being more skilled than the low A pitchers. This won't be true as he moves up in the minors and it definitely won't be true in the majors.

    And yes it is a big reason for concern.

  6. #86
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    Sammy Sosa (BB)
    Mike Schmidt
    Mark McGwire
    Manny Ramirez
    Reggie Jackson
    Fred McGriff
    Jose Canseco
    Adam Dunn
    David Ortiz
    Mike Piazza (BB)
    Andres Galarraga
    Jim Edmonds
    Albert Belle
    Tony Perez
    Matt Williams
    Jeff Kent
    Lance Berkman
    Gary Gaetti
    Carlos Beltran
    Greg Vaughn
    Moises Alou
    Ryan Howard
    Jay Buhner
    Richie Sexson
    Reggie Sanders
    Tim Salmon
    Carlos Pena
    Eric Davis
    Mike Cameron
    Jorge Posada
    Gorman Thomas
    Matt Stairs
    Nick Swisher
    Dan Uggla
    Rob Deer
    Tony Batista
    Geoff Jenkins
    Adam LaRoche
    Travis Hafner
    Jose Bautista
    Mark Reynolds
    Dave Henderson
    Russell Branyan

    194 HR and up club. Sosa and Piazza had worse walk rates. Sosa was younger though. The rest were within a year (older or younger) and at A/A+ ball.

    The big thing is that BB%.

    He's not striking out a ton...and scouting reports (BA, etc) say he kills mistake pitches, especially off-speed stuff.

    It actually seems he struggled with plus fastballs (93-95). Which can't a guy just speed up his bat a little while giving up some HR length?

    Curious to see what he does.

    Curious the thoughts on Vargas, Harrison, and Dalton?

    Harrison is 20, the others are older and similar K rates as Walker.

  7. #87
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    Matt Adams is a good comp.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...93&position=1B

    Class A, same age, 6.5% BB% and and 15.3% K%.

  8. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
    Matt Adams is a good comp.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...93&position=1B

    Class A, same age, 6.5% BB% and and 15.3% K%.
    Excellent work overall and Adams is a most interesting comp. Correction on Adam Walker, he attended Jacksonville University in Florida, not Jacksonville State in Alabama.

    In contrast to 3rd round pick Walker, Adams was a completely unheralded and unknown prospect (23rd round from Slippery Rock University - DII school) who isn't anywhere close to being the athlete with upside that Walker is. But Adams' Midwest League batting stats at the same age as Walker are clearly superior to Walker, across the board (.310/.355/.541). The man clearly has a gift, he's a born hitter. But his K rate was never better than at age 21. He's been above 20% K with a similar BB% ever since at every level he's played (in 2013 for the Cards he had a 25.1% K and 7.3% BB).

    Walker has a huge upside AND a huge flame-out potential, continued improvement in his plate discipline in 2014 against tougher pitchers in Hi A will be telling on his ultimate success track to the majors. Close to similar production to Adams- with more power and more athleticism- is reasonable to project as his ceiling.

    On a more frustrating note, in researching Adams, I was again disturbed to compare the Twins 09 draft "success" (Dozier, Gibson, Hermann) versus the St Louis Cardinals. Not surprisingly, they totally outclass the Twins. Not only did they hit for gold with the high picks:

    Shelby Miller 1st rd
    Joe Kelly 3rd rd

    They also know how to draft in the rounds where most other teams (and fans) are seemingly going through the motions:

    Matt Carpenter 13th rd
    Trevor Rosenthal 21st rd
    Matt Adams 23rd rd
    Keith Butler 24th rd

    There's gotta be a reason besides luck why the rich get richer.
    Last edited by jokin; 11-20-2013 at 03:40 AM.

  9. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by lightfoot789 View Post
    Reason for concern yes - Big reason for concern no. I asked this question earlier - Who are you comparing his 20% K rate to? I need comps.....
    I am not sure I have ever seen "runs scored" as a stat to evaluate a prospect especially one with a bad OB %.

    For me, I'm not sure what you mean by "comps" as his K% & BB% are not good and red flags. That's just a fact. You can say you think he can overcome those red flags and I hope you are right. But that coupled with the reports I have seen that say he struggles with balls that have movement tells me he will has problems as he faces high quality pitching. I hope you are right and I am wrong.
    Last edited by clutterheart; 11-20-2013 at 06:34 AM.

  10. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    Tons of guys his age or younger have posted that kind of power in A ball with high K rates and even better walk rates. Angel Morales, Matt Olson, Jacob Wilson, Alberth Martinez, Anthony Garcia, Cameron Garfield, Benjamin Mcmahan etc. You can literally pick any year in A ball history and find a dozen guys 22 and younger who post ISO over .200 w/a 20% or worse krate. Some of them make it to the majors. Most don't.

    No one is dissing him, he's a nice player to have in your system and a very good 3rd round pick. But he hasn't put his tools together yet to be ranked highly in the prospect lists. As Parks says, he's loaded with tools and if he manages to put everything together, he's a first division player. That is fantastic and I really hope it happens. But he's not close to there yet. The Twins will give him tons of time to get there but he needs to show plate discipline in both improving his krate (which he has started to do) and his walk rate (which he hasn't). If he can't fix his plate discipline, he won't get past AA.
    I wish the 'Like' button still existed for this comment. Great stuff.

    This discussion is missing the total number of minor league prospects who match the various comps. Yes, it is interesting that 50 successful major leaguers matched Walker's power and K-rate profile at a similar age/level, but it is more interesting to know what percentage of all players who match Walker become successful major leaguers. To figure that out, we need to know the total number. If there are only 100 who match, and 50 become successful, then Walker has pretty good odds. But if there are 1,000 who match, then Walker's odds become much less likely.

    Expanding on Gunnarthor's example, it would be interesting to know just how many minor league players in the past 20 years fall into Walker's criteria:
    Played at Low-A at 20, 21, or 22.
    K-Rate greater than 20%
    BB-Rate less than 7.5%
    IOS greater than .200

    Then from that group, how many became success major league hitters?

    My comp for Walker is Mark Trumbo: big power, low OBP, high strikeouts, not much defensive value. Trumbo is definitely a useful player (and very valuable pre-arbitration), but not a superstar. I think this is Walker's ceiling unless he learns to get on-base better.

  11. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    On a more frustrating note, in researching Adams, I was again disturbed to compare the Twins 09 draft "success" (Dozier, Gibson, Hermann) versus the St Louis Cardinals. Not surprisingly, they totally outclass the Twins. Not only did they hit for gold with the high picks:

    Shelby Miller 1st rd
    Joe Kelly 3rd rd

    They also know how to draft in the rounds where most other teams (and fans) are seemingly going through the motions:

    Matt Carpenter 13th rd
    Trevor Rosenthal 21st rd
    Matt Adams 23rd rd
    Keith Butler 24th rd

    There's gotta be a reason besides luck why the rich get richer.
    It's one draft. Over the last decade, the Cards and Twins have drafted about the same WAR (if you exclude players that didn't sign). Cards had a great draft in 03 (even ignoring unsigned guys like Ian Kennedy and Max Schertzer), 05, 06 and 09. Twins had great drafts in 02-05. Twins bombed 06, Cards bombed 04. The more recent drafts are hard to gauge yet.

    If you want to argue that the Twins drafted worse after Ryan and Radcliff gave way to Smith and Johnson, you certainly can. Some of the more recent guys - Hicks, Gibson - are just getting here so those drafts will (hopefully) improve in hindsight.

  12. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by markos View Post
    My comp for Walker is Mark Trumbo: big power, low OBP, high strikeouts, not much defensive value. Trumbo is definitely a useful player (and very valuable pre-arbitration), but not a superstar. I think this is Walker's ceiling unless he learns to get on-base better.
    I don't think Walker has Trumbo's power. I think his ceiling might be closer to a guy like Jacque Jones - Jones had BB/SO issues in both the minors and majors but had some real speed (something Trumbo doesn't have) and was a better defender than Trumbo - at least in most years. Jones could hit about 20 HR and would occasionally approach 30. But he didn't walk much so, unless he hit .300, he wasn't anything special. But he had a nice ML career and made $25m. That's not bad.

  13. #93
    On a more frustrating note, in researching Adams, I was again disturbed to compare the Twins 09 draft "success" (Dozier, Gibson, Hermann) versus the St Louis Cardinals. Not surprisingly, they totally outclass the Twins. Not only did they hit for gold with the high picks:

    Shelby Miller 1st rd
    Joe Kelly 3rd rd

    They also know how to draft in the rounds where most other teams (and fans) are seemingly going through the motions:

    Matt Carpenter 13th rd
    Trevor Rosenthal 21st rd
    Matt Adams 23rd rd
    Keith Butler 24th rd

    There's gotta be a reason besides luck why the rich get richer.[/QUOTE]
    That Cardinals draft of 2009 might be the best of all time when you consider how many impact players there are (assuming they continue to produce). I think most draft classes are considered a success if you get one starter (either pitcher or position) and one backup/relief pitcher. I've never really seen a discussion of best baseball draft classes, that would be an interesting article.

  14. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    On a more frustrating note, in researching Adams, I was again disturbed to compare the Twins 09 draft "success" (versus the St Louis Cardinals). Not surprisingly, they totally outclassed the Twins. There's gotta be a reason besides luck why the rich get richer.
    No need to get too frustrated or disturbed. In 2009 we signed Sano, Polanco, and Kepler.

  15. #95
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    RH Jacque Jones is a good comparison, overall. Not as ceiling or floor, but that most likely place between the two.

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    And on that note, if Arcia struggles against lefties in the future, Walker/Arcia DH combo or a Walker/Vargas DH combo isn't a bad thing to consider.

  17. #97
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    Why is Adam Walker the point of consternation here? No one is saying he's a bad prospect. No one is saying he's an exceptional one either. He put up great stats in Cedar Rapids at age 22 and showed he improved over his rookie league stats. Are they ideal? No. If they were, he'd be higher up on these lists. The potential is there. That was said when he was drafted. That still hasn't change except that we've seen evidence he's improving.

    One of my beefs with the stats only type arguments is that people aren't really asking why his K/BB rate is where it is. If he's striking out a 20% clip b/c he cannot hit breaking pitches, we have a problem. He's going to get exposed at higher levels as the pitchers get better. If he's not walking right now simply b/c he excels at hitting bad pitches, we might have a problem. He won't get nearly as many bad pitches as he advances. Perhaps it's because he's a very good hitter of pitches in the zone and his K rate has more to do with swinging at bad pitches out of the zone. Again, we don't know. The last one might be the best tihng as he's shown improvement in that area... and if that's the case, the walks will come too.

    Walker is a nice prospect. He'd be much higher up on a lot of other team's lists, and he's no sure thing. That, to me, is the most impressive take away. Our 11-20 guys are better than some team's 1-10 guys, and our 21-30 guys would make the top 20 on quite a few team's lists. That bodes well for the Twins long term.

  18. #98
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    I don't think Walker has Trumbo's power. I think his ceiling might be closer to a guy like Jacque Jones.
    You obviously have never seen this kid play (just kidding). His power was listed as possibly the best in his draft class. From everything I've seen and read - There aren't many in baseball with more power. You be the judge: AdamBrettWalkerKernelHighlightsVideo

    I could live with Jacque Jones at his best. That said: Walker seems to be hitting everything from off speed to fastballs in these videos. Worth the viewing if you have not seen the kid and judging merely on select articles. Many of his HRs also came off Pitchers who are Top prospects in their respective organizations. Another intangible often over looked (who are you hitting & who is getting you out?).

    I agree with alot of what Diehardtwinsfan says - My only beef is when posters state he strikes out way too much and is not showing any signs of improving? That's not factual. We dismiss Stats now that sabermetrics are the new grading scale - But the game still comes down to scoring runs and driving in runs from an offensive perspective. If I have a prospect who has shown an ability to do both throughout his life span (HS / College / Pros) and make minor adjustments along the way. Why doubt so heavily? (1) Low BB rate (true), but scores more than everyone else in league (2) Average K rate (20%) and drives in more runs than everyone else (3) Just Wins at every level:
    *Great Lakes Summer League - Best Record in League (HR leader & 2nd in RBI)
    *Jacksonville University - Beat #1 UF (2011) & made NCAA regionals (All Tourney Team)
    *Hyannis (Cape Cod) - 1st Regular Season Championship in 23 years (led team in HRs & RBI)
    *Elizabethton Twins - League Champions (Top 5 - HRs - RBI - Runs - Slg% - OPS)
    *Cedar Raids Kernels - Best Record in all of Minor Leagues
    Just wins and brings those intangibles to the Twins too. That's why he is so high on my list.

  19. #99
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    No doubt the Twins were/are a leader in Australia. What effects has it had on the MLB club? Why weren't the Twins more effective in Latin America?
    They were late to the game. It was a good move to hit a little used resource (Australia) but it doesn't make up for the decade or so head start many other teams had on the Twins in Latin America.

  20. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by lightfoot789 View Post
    I agree with alot of what Diehardtwinsfan says - My only beef is when posters state he strikes out way too much and is not showing any signs of improving?
    From what I can see, only one person said he strikes out way too much and no one said he wasn't showing signs of improvement. Those throwing up red flags all seem to have concerns with the lack of walks. And it is a giant red flag.

    We are talking about a player who had 30% more HR than the 2nd place finisher and 20% more RBI. The guys he was facing should have been pitching around him regularly, particularly after Buxton and Hicks got promoted mid-season. Considering the power numbers he put up, half of those 31 BB were probably intentional or on intentionally unhittable pitches. The number of walks he took by actully working a count probably is closer to single digits which is awful considering the lack of control from 20-year-old pitchers in Low A ball.

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