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Thread: Josh Johnson to the Padres

  1. #41
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    I am pretty confident that Josh Johnson was not signing with the Twins -- he's very obviously trying to build his value for a big payday next winter. How much he earns in 2014 is of relatively little consequence to him.

    That said, the $10 million comment by the Twins was a little disappointing. I mean, that's the shortest term deal possible, at clearly a market rate. A team in the Twins situation should be overjoyed if they could snag him for that.

  2. #42
    Senior Member All-Star PseudoSABR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    That said, the $10 million comment by the Twins was a little disappointing. .
    To be fair to the Twins, JJ did sign for less. Though it might have taken as much as that to get him to Minnesota, if not more.

    That said, my hopefulness of catching a big fish is still rather muted.

  3. #43
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    Johnson signed for slightly less, but basically picked his league and city first, then signed well before winter meetings. Suggests he gave a discount there.

    I will have to go back and look at the quote. The idea that $10m was just beyond the pale for Johnson does not give me a lot of hope for us in free agency....

  4. #44
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AM. View Post
    While it appears that he wanted an NL team and the west coast, it also appears that the Twins weren't active in pursuit of him. Ryan said he liked him but that he wanted $10mm, and that wasn't going to happen. After hearing that, it seems like the Twins bowed out. Who knows if he would have considered Minnesota if they had made a run at him?

    I'm not too upset, but it seems strange that we hear "willing to consider any one-year expense" and yet the pitcher with the highest upside available...is too rich at $10mm?
    Again, best case scenario is he earns that 10 million and then bounces for a 4-5 year deal the next year.

    I am the biggest JJ supporter on this board, but frankly the Twins were never a good fit for him, nor was he a good fit for the Twins on a ONE year deal. If we could have got him for 2-3 years, then yeah I would be more upset.

  5. #45
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    Best case, he also nets them deadline prospects, a comp pick, or maybe a slight discount on a long term deal.

    The Twins didn't have a shot at this particular player, but let's not pretend that he wouldn't have been a great acquisition. The Twins might be lucky to get one pitcher this offseason with the potential performance/payout of Johnson.

  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    Best case, he also nets them deadline prospects, a comp pick, or maybe a slight discount on a long term deal.

    The Twins didn't have a shot at this particular player, but let's not pretend that he wouldn't have been a great acquisition. The Twins might be lucky to get one pitcher this offseason with the potential performance/payout of Johnson.
    Let's not pretend the Twins were interested. Most teams in baseball have no interest in him because they are convinced his arm is going to fall off.

  7. #47
    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Again, best case scenario is he earns that 10 million and then bounces for a 4-5 year deal the next year.

    I am the biggest JJ supporter on this board, but frankly the Twins were never a good fit for him, nor was he a good fit for the Twins on a ONE year deal. If we could have got him for 2-3 years, then yeah I would be more upset.
    Even with a good bounce back year in SD. I'd be surprised if JJ ever got more than three years because of the arm problems.

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by howieramone View Post
    Let's not pretend the Twins were interested. Most teams in baseball have no interest in him because they are convinced his arm is going to fall off.
    Twins do prefer health, but last year they broke from that to get Pelfrey and Worley. I think it's pretty clear the Twins stronger preference so far is "cheap".

    I think most any GM in the game, with $30+ million to spend and 3 wide-open rotation spots, wouldn't mind a $10 million, one-year gamble on a 30 year old pitcher with legit ace upside who can pass a physical. Even if you never trust that pitcher's health enough to offer him another cent, that's a reasonable price for a potential deadline asset or extra comp pick.

  9. #49
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pius Jefferson View Post
    Even with a good bounce back year in SD. I'd be surprised if JJ ever got more than three years because of the arm problems.
    By the time he proves himself healthy again, he'll be too old to get anything longer than a three year deal.

    So, yeah... Three years, tops.

  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    By the time he proves himself healthy again, he'll be too old to get anything longer than a three year deal.

    So, yeah... Three years, tops.
    I'd generally agree, but he isn't even 30 years old yet (turns 30 in January). Not saying it's likely, but if he somehow managed to reproduce his 2009 or 2010 season next year, I think that would go a long way towards "proving" himself healthy again (if such a thing can ever be proved in one year) and making him a premier free agent next winter.

    Plus, if his next contract will likely top out at 3 years, that would be even more incentive for a team to sign him for one year now. Potentially getting a head start or small discount on negotiating a less-risky 3 year extension is more valuable than getting the same for a more-risky 4-5 year extension, no?

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