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Thread: Official 'Twins Aren't Doing Stuff' Thread

  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    Fact: the same was said last offseason, yet TR counted on all of those guys. Arguably the same thing was said before 2012, yet TR counted on mostly the same group.

    Are the circumstances slightly different this year? Yes, but mainly just the year. The burden of proof is definitely on TR to show something different this offseason. (Not that I endorse starting a new thread daily to note his lack of progress so far )
    I never phonepost, but had to chime in. This is staggeringly inaccurate. TR acquired 3 pitchers last season with the intent all would be starting the season (or reasonably close from rehab) in the rotation. Worley, Correia and Pelfrey were all acquired in December. They were to join the rotation alongside Scott Diamond and the winner of a Hendriks-Deduno battle. The team was linked to Saunders and other names later in the year, and had a couple injury lottery tickets to boot. Additionally, Gibson and possibly May were expected to be potential midseason support.

    That staff, going into into 2013, wasn't particularly exciting and had some risk and reversion concerns attached. But one could reasonably expect something approaching competence from it.

    Pretending that situation is in any way analogous to the Duensing-Swarzak-Gibson-Correia-Albers/Johnson/Diamond rotation/nightmare being theorized about in this thread is revisionist at best.

  2. #62
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugh Morris View Post
    Pretending that situation is in any way analogous to the Duensing-Swarzak-Gibson-Correia-Albers/Johnson/Diamond rotation/nightmare being theorized about in this thread is revisionist at best.
    Um, no, many of us predicted a repeat SP nightmare before the year started. It wasn't shocking at all to mny of us tht a rotation made up of a guy less than a year removed from TJ surgery, a massive regression candidate, a guy coming over from the NL with shoulder problems, a subpar innings eater, and a wildcard were going to struggle to be "competent", unless your definition for that is a really low bar.

  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugh Morris View Post
    I never phonepost, but had to chime in. This is staggeringly inaccurate. TR acquired 3 pitchers last season with the intent all would be starting the season (or reasonably close from rehab) in the rotation. Worley, Correia and Pelfrey were all acquired in December. They were to join the rotation alongside Scott Diamond and the winner of a Hendriks-Deduno battle. The team was linked to Saunders and other names later in the year, and had a couple injury lottery tickets to boot. Additionally, Gibson and possibly May were expected to be potential midseason support.

    That staff, going into into 2013, wasn't particularly exciting and had some risk and reversion concerns attached. But one could reasonably expect something approaching competence from it.

    Pretending that situation is in any way analogous to the Duensing-Swarzak-Gibson-Correia-Albers/Johnson/Diamond rotation/nightmare being theorized about in this thread is revisionist at best.
    I agree. It was a marginal plan at best that played out much worse. Ryan ultimately parlayed it into the 5th draft pick. Strengthening PLAN B with Johnson and his 3 options is a solid small move. Duensing and Swarzak starting is PLAN C. It will all make a lot more sense by spring training.
    Last edited by howieramone; 11-21-2013 at 01:43 PM.

  4. #64
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    I'm willing to be pretty negative in order to be pleasantly surprised. I am not sure how one can just overlook what has been done so far and reasonably also expect any kind of drastic improvement from TR this offseason. I predict one FA starting pitcher and probably a lot of filler.

  5. #65
    Quote Originally Posted by Major Leauge Ready View Post
    Here is the problem with your argument. An hour to deliver your food would be substantially in excess of what is reasonably expected. In other words, it would be very abnormal. In comparing the FA process, it is very normal that little is done by Nov 21st regardless of how motivated a team is to sign players. We are not talking about ordering a burger. We are talking about negotiating an 8 figure contracts. Therefore it is not an excuse, it simply is the norm for people engaged in negotiations of this magnitude to take their time, conduct due diligence, and examine a number of options before executing a contract.

    To use your burger ordering analogy, to complain at this point would be the rough equivalent of complaining to the server after 3 minutes if your burger that takes 6 minutes to prepare is ready.

    You are not concluding anything here. The relevent information by which to base a conclusion does not yet exist. You are presuming.
    What is relevant is our current roster. Until we have made more moves, all we can do is speculate on the status quo of the organization. Until an actual move is made, there is no reason to truly believe that significant change is going to occur, whether that is an argument, opinion, fact, it doesn't matter because it's the truth.

    By the way, it was a french fry analogy, not a hamburger one. I would never order a hamburger either. Only cheeseburgers for this fella. I also am a bit confused on how Free Agency works now. Are we trying to sign players or order hamburgers and fries at a high school basketball game?

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Um, no, many of us predicted a repeat SP nightmare before the year started. It wasn't shocking at all to mny of us tht a rotation made up of a guy less than a year removed from TJ surgery, a massive regression candidate, a guy coming over from the NL with shoulder problems, a subpar innings eater, and a wildcard were going to struggle to be "competent", unless your definition for that is a really low bar.
    If you had Correia being a touch below average with the league change(and not substantially worse), Pelfrey spending the first half of the year between 6-7 ERA, Worley with a 7 era and the obvious regression candidate of Diamond landing a sub-80 ERA+, congratulations. Many MLB offices likely have a place for you in baseball operations.

    I'm not saying that anyone felt the rotation was exciting. Many people predicted that something would go wrong-but very few had any (reasoned out, detailed) predictions that came close to the magnitude of regression and failure involved.

    The rotation was extremely warty. But 80% of the opening day rotation was players who had recent(Pelfrey is debatable due to injury and whether 2010 was "recent" for 28yo who missed the prior season with injury) success as Major League starters.

    Does a rotation made out of the pieces in the post you quoted come close to fitting that description?

  7. #67
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by howieramone View Post
    . Ryan ultimately parleyed it into the 5th draft pick.
    Please elaborate...he "parlayed" losing 96 games into the 5th pick? That was his goal? He outmanuvered other GMs by purposely tanking the 2013 season?

    WTH?
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

  8. #68
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    ^superlike.

  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugh Morris View Post
    I never phonepost, but had to chime in. This is staggeringly inaccurate. TR acquired 3 pitchers last season with the intent all would be starting the season (or reasonably close from rehab) in the rotation.
    Short version: any rotation plan that includes the words "Hendricks-Deduno battle" is by definition one that is counting on AAA suspects.

    Long version: Correia, three guys coming off some form of elbow surgery, and ???. That was the rotation plan going into 2013.

    And before you tell me about expectations for the three surgery guys, note that by far the most experienced one had a career ERA+ of 92, in the NL, missed the previous season almost completely, and was aggressively pushing his rehab timeline. The next most experienced one was coming off a career high in IP (133), a 96 ERA+, a season shut down in August, and was just traded -- with a recent Top 100 prospect! -- for Ben Revere. The least-experienced one was the only one who was either above-average OR pitched a full season in 2012, and we all know his fluke credentials from that year (4.6 K/9).

    Then there's Correia, the so-called "innings eater" who had averaged 167 IP and an ERA+ of 83 since becoming a full-time starter.

    And mind you, even with Correia and these three surgery guys INKED into the rotation, there was still a wide-open spot for AAA flotsam and jetsam from day one, before any injuries or ineffectiveness could even take place. (Indeed, four such "extra" guys had already started games for the Twins before the end of May, with the only DL stint being Diamond missing the first two weeks as expected.)

    Prospect reinforcements? Top one also coming off TJ surgery, only other two even remotely possible were both ticketed for AA.

    THAT is counting on a lot of suspects. (A similar argument could be made about the 2012 rotation too -- only one good starter among that group and he was teetering on the brink of TJ surgery.)

    Mind you, these guys individually were not necessarily bad acquisitions. But together they do not make a competent rotation, and TR has very clearly counted on some marginal starting pitchers for regular roles in his rotation planning the past two seasons.

  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugh Morris View Post
    But 80% of the opening day rotation was players who had recent(Pelfrey is debatable due to injury and whether 2010 was "recent" for 28yo who missed the prior season with injury) success as Major League starters.
    Don't sell yourself short -- Deduno had a 92 ERA+ in 2012, same as Pelfrey's career mark and better than Correia's (as a starter). The Twins had five recently successful Major League starters!

    That kind of distinction is almost meaningless. Did Philip Humber count as a "recently successful Major League starter" for the Astros? Erik Bedard? Did Kevin Slowey for the Marlins?

    TR built his rotation with low-upside guys with very shaky track records of health and effectiveness -- and he still had one clear opening for a AAA guy to begin the season!

    Sorry for the rants, but wow has this been a bad two season run of starting pitching, not just performance but also low expectations.

  11. #71
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    In regards to the Swarzak-Duensing stuff: These guys WILL NOT be starters for this team. If you hear it in its ENTIRE context, which normally helps form an educated opinion, he is stating that they should prepare to be starting. PREPARE is the imoprtant word. He never said that they will be starting. Just like a back-up QB should prepare to be the starter each week because he's "just one play away." These guys are long relievers (or IMO a LOOGY at best), but he wants them to be stretched out and ready to go. What if Swarzak HAS figured it out and could be Kyle Lohse 2.0 this time around? Shouldn't they be given an opportunity to compete? If they are as Sh*&ty as we think they are, then they'll go right back into the bullpen and play their respective roles quite nicely. Ditto for Johnson, the new LHP.

    Secondly, this entire thread is based on TR's track record. Can an old dog learn new tricks? My gut says, "no." BUT if he has we wouldn't know yet. Most FA's have "feelers" out right now. If the Twins have still not signed anyone by the end (or VERY soon afterwards) of the winter meetings then we will know if TR has changed at all.

    TR will either do something different from his track record or he won't. But we can't make that determination yet. We can guess the outcome, but until then, we're only guessing based on his prior pattern with FA.

  12. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
    Way to go out on a limb there. No matter what the Twins end up doing, I'm sure these kind of statements can be finessed into being prophetic.
    How is this for a prediction: no more than one healthy MLB free agent starter signed. I'll even throw Pelfrey in that category, if it helps clarify.

    If you pitched less than (or less effectively than) Pelfrey in 2013, you count as filler.

  13. #73
    Senior Member All-Star Jim Crikket's Avatar
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    I rarely log in any more and have steadfastly resisted the urge to comment on these sorts of threads, but I just don't feel much like working this afternoon, so here I am...

    If we're not allowed to point out that it's extremely early to post something like this thread, then I'm not sure there was any potential for discussion at all. Is anyone going to debate the points that (a) nothing has been done yet, (b) the Twins have sucked for 3 years, or (c) TR hasn't hit a home run with any FA signing in that time? Once we all agree on the obvious, what more about the original post is there to "discuss"?

    I think, as a group, we fall in to one of three camps: unbelievers who insist TR will do nothing, believers who insist this year may be different and TR will do something significant in FA, and a few of us who might best be described as agnostic on the subject. Count me in the last group.

    I agree that rumors or supposed "contact" prove nothing and while I might feel a little encouraged that the Twins are included in those, I won't believe TR is any more serious about acquiring legitimate FA SP help this year than he has been in the past until I see it happen.

    That said, it IS far too early to cast judgement. It would be almost insane for the agent of any of the top-shelf SP free agents to allow a client to sign with anyone right now unless the pitcher has a very limited set of destinations he really wants to go to (and let's be honest, Minnesota is not on any pitcher's "God, I REALLY want to go there" list.

    Knowing that, all any team would accomplish by making a contract offer now would be to give the agent something he could use to leverage a better deal from another team. Why the hell would TR want to do that? That would be pure incompetence in my book.

    If it were me, I'd be letting the agents of pitchers I might be interested in know about my interest. Let them know they shouldn't make a deal without talking to me... that if their clients are looking for a pitcher-friendly ballpark to pitch in, I'm serious about improving my team and we should talk at the Winter Meetings.

    Coincidentally, it sounds kinda like that's what TR is doing.

    EDIT: wow, sorry... didn't think that comment was going to be this long.
    I opine about the Twins and Kernels regularly at Knuckleballsblog.com while my alter ego, SD Buhr covers the Kernels for MetroSportsReport.com.

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  14. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by Siehbiscuit View Post
    In regards to the Swarzak-Duensing stuff: These guys WILL NOT be starters for this team. If you hear it in its ENTIRE context, which normally helps form an educated opinion, he is stating that they should prepare to be starting. PREPARE is the imoprtant word. He never said that they will be starting. Just like a back-up QB should prepare to be the starter each week because he's "just one play away." These guys are long relievers (or IMO a LOOGY at best), but he wants them to be stretched out and ready to go. What if Swarzak HAS figured it out and could be Kyle Lohse 2.0 this time around? Shouldn't they be given an opportunity to compete? If they are as Sh*&ty as we think they are, then they'll go right back into the bullpen and play their respective roles quite nicely. Ditto for Johnson, the new LHP.
    I'd say the better analogy would be telling Joe Webb that he's going to come to camp as a quarterback next year. It doesn't hurt to give him that chance in practice and exhibition games, I suppose, but it sort of communicates your plan and expectations for that position.

  15. #75
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    Mr. Crikket, you make good points. And to my credit, I haven't started these threads, just participated in them.

    That said, the "Johnson/Swarzak/Duensing are in the mix" news is what triggered this, more than the early slow crawl of the free agent market. Those guys represent the pit of SP mediocrity that TR should be trying to avoid, not discussing in November...

  16. #76
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    I really think TR is going to do something this year. There is just too much pressure not to. The potential public relations nightmare of all that money sitting there unspent and a crappy team would be too much for JP and the front office to survive unscathed. It would be talked about the entire year to the exclusion of most everything else. I can see the headline now, Greedy owner doesn't care about team or fans or Public trust abused by greedy owner etc. He will get somebody fairly big this year but my guess is only one free agent signing.

    I think part of the reason TR is waiting is he might want to see if he can work a trade at the winter meetings. If he can then that might change his FA strategy. Also Agents and players typically want to wait before signing to set the market and as supply dwindles there is a greater chance to get the money they want. If they wait too long then obviously the opposite happens as they find out nobody really wants them that bad. It is a game and we will have to wait and see what happens.

    This is the year Ryan finally gets somebody but don't cheer too loudly as he will be back to his old ways soon enough.

  17. #77
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    What bothers me most is that everyone keeps putting two "e"s in judgment.

    Are you all British?

  18. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    Please elaborate...he "parlayed" losing 96 games into the 5th pick? That was his goal? He outmanuvered other GMs by purposely tanking the 2013 season?

    WTH?
    He failed here then too. Who shoots for fifth place?

  19. #79
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    Jason Vargas is now off the board as he signed a 4 year 32 million contract with the Royals today. Did we miss the whole offseason yet?

  20. #80
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brandon View Post
    Jason Vargas is now off the board as he signed a 4 year 32 million contract with the Royals today. Did we miss the whole offseason yet?
    Did you want 4 years of Jason Vargas? I don't think I'd even want 3.

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