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Thread: Berardino: Capuano, Floyd, Arroyo are targets

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    Berardino: Capuano, Floyd, Arroyo are targets

    PiPress' Mike Berardino drops a few interesting tidbits on the Twins search for starting pitching:

    1. According to their agent, Chris Capuano and Gavin Floyd have drawn some interest from the Twins. Floyd should be ready to start pitching by the begining of spring training, which is earlier than we thought, so he's feeling very Pelfreyic. And Capuano is very intriguing for a mid-tier guy: had a very good (3.72 ERA, 198 IP) 2012 and by Twins standards has a very high strikeout rate (7.5K/9 for his career). He's 34 and will likely be looking to rebuild some value after a groin injury short-circuited his 2011 and ended up in the Dodgers bullpen.

    Their agent declined to say if either has a contract offer from the Twins.

    2. But it also sounds like the Twins are still very much in the mix for Arroyo:
    Veteran right-hander Bronson Arroyo remains a prime focus for the Twins as they seek to bolster the majors' worst rotation.

    According to a person with direct knowledge, the Twins had yet to meet Arroyo's request for a three-year contract, but there were indications they might be willing to go that far for the pitcher who turns 37 in February.
    Would you give him a 3rd year?

    3. Finally, there is a lot about how Tanaka bidding is holding up the pitching market a bit. Players want to wait for the losers in that process to come knocking at their doors.

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    The Tanaka factor could get quite interesting in that MLB and NPB(?) seem to be at an impasse regarding a new agreement for posting rules. If you are seriously interested in him, do you wait it out, risking the possibility that your other free agent interests sign with other teams in the meantime? What happens if teams wait and he doesn't even get posted this year? Between this and the TV money, it really is going to be an interesting off season.

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    Floyd - Please no.
    If he wasn't coming off TJ surgey, it would be OK. But I do not want another spring training hearing about how good he looks only to watch him struggle followed by quotes like "im getting there" and "its coming back."

    Arroyo - I don't care about the 3rd year. What else does this team have to spend money on in the next three years? No player is going to need locking up. Twins have a 3-4 year window to spend as much as they can on FA as there isn't anyone in the system who will need a long term contract

  4. #4
    I would do that third year on Arroyo. But no "no trade" clauses. Of course, we have to figure out $$$. 2-years $24 million and a buyout/option...of a flat 3-year at something like $30 mil.
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    I like Floyd as that third guy you take a flyer on. Nice upside as a good mid rotation guy. Should he be a solution to our rotation woes overall, hell no. But he would be a good 2nd or 3rd signing. Getting these guys gets you an in if they do have a good year. The Twins reportedly have a nice clubhouse atmosphere that could/should lead to guys wanting to play there. Say a guy like Floyd comes back and pitches like he did presurgery he might be more likely to sign a longer term deal. Floyd isn't a top of the rotation guy but I think he's better than his numbers. He's got decent K/BB numbers and you have to think pitching in us cellular doesn't help him either. I had kinda forgotten about Floyd. Might be a nice guy to bring into the fold. Nice potential.

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    I'm trying to decide how I would decide if I would give Arroyo a 3rd year....

    On the one hand, it sure seems like they'll have the money. On the other hand, by 2016, they might want that $12-15M to spend on someone else. Which brings us back to the (twelve) million dollar question: can Arroyo still be good in 2016?

    His strikeout rate certainly suggests he won't. 5.5 (which was his K/9 last year) is getting down to the level where you just don't have much room for error - except that he's had a lower rate than that in 2009, 2010 and 2011. He recorded a 3.84, 3.88 and 5.07 ERA those years. The biggest factor in his success has been his home run rate, and that HAS to improve in Target Field compared to Great American Ballpark, which is known to give up taters.

    Looking at comparable pitchers through age 36 doesn't inspire much confidence. His top 5: John Burkett, Todd Stottlemyre, Tim Belcher, Esteban Loaiza and John Lieber - non of them were worth a damn past this age. By the way, numbers 6 and 7 are Kevin Tapani and Scott Erickson. Tap has a 4.49 ERA when he was 37 and then his career was over. Erickson only pitched 66 more innings over two years after this point, and had a 6.35 ERA.

    I've tried to talk myself into this, but here's the bottom line - he's not a good bet to age gracefully. I'd rather the Twins spend whatever money they were going to throw at him for a 3rd year to go after a younger, better pitcher.

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    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    As I have noted elsewhere, Capuano is a good option and will improve or maintain himself in the AL.

    Otherwise, I would just overpay for Arroyo on a two-year deal and figure out Hughes too. That's a decent realistic expectation. Add three guys.

    But they won't. It's either Nolasco (no please), Kazmir, Hughes, Arroyo, or Capuano. With the caveat that it's maybe one of those first four AND Capuano. I hope they sign two. The weirdness about starters (Johnson, Swarzak, Duensing) makes me think that only one of these guys is signed.

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    Looking at comparable pitchers through age 36 doesn't inspire much confidence. His top 5: John Burkett, Todd Stottlemyre, Tim Belcher, Esteban Loaiza and John Lieber - non of them were worth a damn past this age. By the way, numbers 6 and 7 are Kevin Tapani and Scott Erickson. Tap has a 4.49 ERA when he was 37 and then his career was over. Erickson only pitched 66 more innings over two years after this point, and had a 6.35 ERA.
    And of these pitchers Arroyo is the only one who wasn't hurt for any significant period in their careers. Moyer is another junkballer who pitched till his late 40's. I think Arroyo has a better chance of going three years as his control is pinpoint and Target Field suppresses power against lefties. I would think Arroyo on a 3 year deal will give us around 200 innings a year 10-15 wins and a low to mid 4 era. For the third year when we are expecting to compete I might peg him for more the 4th starter role and make sure I upgrade over Corriea to compensate for this as he will/ should occupy his spot in the rotation that year.

    Another thing to consider John is that Arroyo like Moyer didn't start taxing his arm with 200+ innings per season till his late 20's.
    Last edited by Brandon; 11-22-2013 at 08:03 AM.

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    And to think people were REALLY UPSET that Correia got 2/10 last year. I think Arroyo is a find pitcher to have on the team but 3/36 is just silly. If they are spending that much money then I hope they spend twice as much and get a better and younger player. Unfortunately I think they are only going to target guys to survive the next couple of years.

  10. #10
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Why is this in minor league?

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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Why is this in minor league?
    Where else would you put a thread abut the Twins attempts to sign free agent pitching?
    Chris Hermann solves everything. hat tip to jokin

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    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    As I have noted elsewhere, Capuano is a good option and will improve or maintain himself in the AL.
    Actually I agree and I think that he might have some potential. Other than the fact that last time he pitched 200 innings was 6 years ago. He is one of those rare guys whose fastball got faster than ever last season (well, "fast" is relative.) At this point, he might be a better investment (and shorter term) than Arroyo for that number 3 spot. But still need 2 better pitchers.
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    Capuano is fine in the Corriea mold. He probably a little better but I'm a little concerned about the NL West in a pitcher's park move to the AL. You sign a guy like this to get you through the next couple of year's respectably. If Capuano is available for 2/10-2/14 then this is a far better move than going after Arroyo for 3/36.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    Capuano is fine in the Corriea mold. He probably a little better but I'm a little concerned about the NL West in a pitcher's park move to the AL. You sign a guy like this to get you through the next couple of year's respectably. If Capuano is available for 2/10-2/14 then this is a far better move than going after Arroyo for 3/36.
    I think you are looking at 2/16-2/20. Still probably better the Arroyo. Only thing Arroyo has going for him is that he eats innings. Have other pitchers I would rather take flyers on.

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    The Twins have been linked to Saltalamacchia again today by Cafardo in Boston. I guess now is the time for the Twins to make a move to sign him if that's what they plan to do. If they do that then I will feel better about Mauer moving to 1B as the Twins will still have solid offense at Catcher. Also if they do this the Twins will probably only want to spend on one SP such as Arroyo or Campuano. I would doubt they would sign even both of those 2 and probably someone in the 5 million or below injured bin. That could be why they are looking into Floyd as a replacement for Pelfry since he seems to want more then the Twins will pay him.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Why is this in minor league?
    Fixed. I must have created 2 threads and the previous one was a minor league move, and just forgot where I was.

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