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Thread: Dioner Navarro a Twin?

  1. #21
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    The Twins appear to agree with the view point listed above.

    I disagree. I don't believe that Doumit can possibly hit well enough to make up for the runs he costs with his defense.

    Mike Fasts study of a few years ago and the various studies since lead several teams to put a priority on receiving the ball. Joe Maddon said last winter that Molina saved them over 50 runs. They gave him another contract and he can't hit. Doumit is the other end of the spectrum.

    I hope the Twins are correct and the Rays, Yankees and Pirates are wrong. I am not confident in that hope.
    We've gone round and round over pitch framing. I have a hard time believing it can impact 8-10% of runs allowed but I think we can both agree on one thing:

    Ryan Doumit is a horrible catcher and no playoff team would put him behind the dish 80+ times a season. I think he has a lot of value as someone who can DH, pinch hit, and catch ~30-40 times a season but no way in hell should he be the go-to guy at catcher.

  2. #22
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Yeah, Doumit's value is as a DH, pinch hitter (from both sides, adds value) and as that third catcher on the roster that can fill-in as backup catcher for a DL stint from one of the other two catchers (so they don't have to call another player up). There is some value there.

  3. #23
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    Yeah, Doumit's value is as a DH, pinch hitter (from both sides, adds value) and as that third catcher on the roster that can fill-in as backup catcher for a DL stint from one of the other two catchers (so they don't have to call another player up). There is some value there.
    If he's hitting at, say, a .750 clip, I think he's a very capable backup catcher. He won't kill you behind the dish 30 times a season because of his bat... But he has to hit, something he didn't do last season. To me, his defense is offset because of his versatility, which allows a team to carry a more versatile bench... Again, if he's hitting.

    In the AL or NL, I think the added versatility of allowing the team to carry another MI, OF, or P because of Doumit can be worth a lot. If he's hitting.

    Did I mention that he needs to hit to have value?

  4. #24
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    I think it makes so much more sense than signing Saltallamacchia, if it's in the 2 year, $7-8 million range. He's a guy who could start 110 games if necessary, but if he winds up catching just 70-80 games because Pinto becomes very good and needs to catch a little more (95-110 games), he isn't costing 8 digits. I'd be good with that.

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  6. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    The Twins appear to agree with the view point listed above.

    I disagree. I don't believe that Doumit can possibly hit well enough to make up for the runs he costs with his defense.

    Mike Fasts study of a few years ago and the various studies since lead several teams to put a priority on receiving the ball. Joe Maddon said last winter that Molina saved them over 50 runs. They gave him another contract and he can't hit. Doumit is the other end of the spectrum.

    I hope the Twins are correct and the Rays, Yankees and Pirates are wrong. I am not confident in that hope.
    The fallacy in the conclusion by Fast is that a strike one or two that should have been a ball leads to outs. They did not investigate the number for called third strikes. How many batters did the Twins lose with a 2 strike count?

  7. #26
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    Signing Navarro means the Twins believe in Pinto enough to bank on him for the future. after the last 2 seasons I see no reason Pinto can not succeed at the major league level. Plus I think Navarro strikes out around 50% less than Saltalamacchia. I think this plays more into the Twins Philosophies. I think the main reason the Twins would be interested in Salty is RH power and he played for some winning teams, but his cost is getting up there.

  8. #27
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Twins Twerp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    If he's hitting at, say, a .750 clip, I think he's a very capable backup catcher. He won't kill you behind the dish 30 times a season because of his bat... But he has to hit, something he didn't do last season. To me, his defense is offset because of his versatility, which allows a team to carry a more versatile bench... Again, if he's hitting.

    In the AL or NL, I think the added versatility of allowing the team to carry another MI, OF, or P because of Doumit can be worth a lot. If he's hitting.

    Did I mention that he needs to hit to have value?
    If he's hitting .750 his shatty defense will definitely be offset by his hitting. Put him at short in that case

  9. #28
    I don't care who you are and how many internet points I lose, but if you think Doumit is the answer behind the dish for more than about 20 innings, you are not baseball smart.

  10. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    I think it makes so much more sense than signing Saltallamacchia, if it's in the 2 year, $7-8 million range. He's a guy who could start 110 games if necessary, but if he winds up catching just 70-80 games because Pinto becomes very good and needs to catch a little more (95-110 games), he isn't costing 8 digits. I'd be good with that.
    Signing Salty allows Pinto to improve defense on a lesser stage(AAA), when he is ready he can catch the majority while Salty hits enough to DH and catch 60 games in 2015 and 2016.

  11. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    We've gone round and round over pitch framing. I have a hard time believing it can impact 8-10% of runs allowed but I think we can both agree on one thing:

    Ryan Doumit is a horrible catcher and no playoff team would put him behind the dish 80+ times a season. I think he has a lot of value as someone who can DH, pinch hit, and catch ~30-40 times a season but no way in hell should he be the go-to guy at catcher.
    I think that pitch framing could impact 8-10% of the AB which would likely affect 8-10% of the runs scored, It may not change the number of runs scored but change the AB in which the runs are plated, set up, runners advance.....

  12. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinscowboysbulls View Post
    Signing Salty allows Pinto to improve defense on a lesser stage(AAA), when he is ready he can catch the majority while Salty hits enough to DH and catch 60 games in 2015 and 2016.
    Pinto doesn't need 3 seasons at AAA to improve VS Pinto can learn on a .500 club next year while Sano and Buxton are also getting their first experience up in the majors...

  13. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Twins Twerp View Post
    If he's hitting .750 his shatty defense will definitely be offset by his hitting. Put him at short in that case
    I think he meant .750 OPS

  14. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinscowboysbulls View Post
    I don't care who you are and how many internet points I lose, but if you think Doumit is the answer behind the dish for more than about 20 innings, you are not baseball smart.
    I think he could be an ok 3rd string catcher to start 5-20 games behind the plate with some back up time as well so no more than 200 innings behind the plate. yes his defense is terrible but he was brought here to be the back up/ almost but not quite platoon, since the Twins don't believe in those, catcher. He'll still get time in RF and DH and maybe some 1B as he'll get over 300 possibly 400 plate appearances this year.

  15. #34
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brandon View Post
    I think that pitch framing could impact 8-10% of the AB which would likely affect 8-10% of the runs scored, It may not change the number of runs scored but change the AB in which the runs are plated, set up, runners advance.....
    Given that ~70% of all ABs end in an out, it'd have to affect way more than 8-10% of the ABs to reflect a 10% increase in runs scored.

  16. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by Brandon View Post
    I think he could be an ok 3rd string catcher to start 5-20 games behind the plate with some back up time as well so no more than 200 innings behind the plate. yes his defense is terrible but he was brought here to be the back up/ almost but not quite platoon, since the Twins don't believe in those, catcher. He'll still get time in RF and DH and maybe some 1B as he'll get over 300 possibly 400 plate appearances this year.
    (TO YOUR FIRST QUOTE)
    I agree, Pinto doesn't need 3 seasons at AAA. That is 100% not what I was saying. One year in AAA, however, will not kill him. In 2015, that would give us 2 actual catchers that could both swing it a little bit. This is a good problem to have.

    (SECOND QUOTE)
    I agree, he could be a 3rd string catcher. Those guys aren't required to catch 20 games unless you have an injury at catcher. The goal I would have this year is to mostly DH Doumit. Anytime he is at Catcher, First or OF, I would deem him an extreme liability. With that being said, if his bat is as good as it has been or could be, it would be worth playing him at other positions than DH. If he has a repeat of 2013, there is actually no reason to play the guy at all, let alone catch or OF.

    Also, for the chatter on Doumit and 1B: When Doumit was brought in, Twins were under assumption he could play 1B. He played a couple games and made some horrendous plays there and suddenly in the media it became known that he was not comfortable at 1B. He then played some in the outfield and was atrocious. Luckily for him, he hit quite well which made it worthwhile to spell Mauer at catcher and DH on a regular basis. Likely his only positions for this season are DH/C. Hopefully he hits more like 2013 so it is worthwhile to have his bat in the lineup. Anyone that is hopeful for him to see action in OF/1B is asking for trouble and I hope the Twins are building a team that doesn't require his services ever at those positions, UNLESS HE IS RAKING and we can't have him out of the lineup.

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  18. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Given that ~70% of all ABs end in an out, it'd have to affect way more than 8-10% of the ABs to reflect a 10% increase in runs scored.
    Getting a called strike early in the count dramatically changes the outcome of an AB.

    But I think both extreme defensive and catching runs saved (or given up by Doumit) are exaggerations of an imperfect data analysis. It's a nice attempt but I only like to use the results to rank players in defensive tiers instead of trying to combine offensive and defensive stats into one.

  19. #37
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    For the record, I was talking about the value of Doumit for other teams. It's there and he's cheap. No way do I want him sticking around on the Twins. I have made that clear for months.

    Also, for the record: Navarro has a career WAR of 4.9 over a ten-year career. A career OPS+ of 82, even with the crazy 2013 season he had. He's always been merely slightly above average defensively (though he has been consistent there). And he's 30 on opening day.

    Why waste any time with this. Either go big at catcher or stick with what you have. Good grief. The decisions being contemplated really tend to blow my mind.

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  21. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    For the record, I was talking about the value of Doumit for other teams. It's there and he's cheap. No way do I want him sticking around on the Twins. I have made that clear for months.

    Also, for the record: Navarro has a career WAR of 4.9 over a ten-year career. A career OPS+ of 82, even with the crazy 2013 season he had. He's always been merely slightly above average defensively (though he has been consistent there). And he's 30 on opening day.

    Why waste any time with this. Either go big at catcher or stick with what you have. Good grief. The decisions being contemplated really tend to blow my mind.
    Doumit doesn't hit well enough to not be a catcher and he doesn't catch well enough to be a catcher. Pretty much every team knows this.

    The Twins should absolutely not stick with what they have. If Pinto disappoints as a rookie or gets injured then we are looking at a season of Herrmann/Doumit/Fryer behind he plate. I think CF last year showed us how important a little depth is behind an unproven rookie. Navarro isn't a very good match but it's much better than having Herrmann or Doumit catching a lot of games.

  22. #39
    I just gotta roll my eyes at all the "catching experts" who think Pinto needs to start the year in AAA to work on his defense. For goodness sakes, he can flat out rake. His defensive deficiencies are so overblown. Let him work them out ON THE JOB under Steinbach's guidance.

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    Mike Berardino reports that the Twins are one of about 5 teams in on Navarro.

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