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Thread: 2014 HoF ballot

  1. #81
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer biggentleben's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivlikejehu View Post
    Did you not see him pitch? Glavine typically got an unbelievably wide strike zone; umpires at the time were calling outside pitches in general while not calling the top of the strike zone (MLB has made efforts in recent years to remedy this, with pitch tracking being a key component).

    But no one took advantage of it like Glavine, who quickly would find the furthest and lowest spot the ump would call, and then proceeded to throw 90%+ of his pitches to that exact spot. If he missed slightly he still got the benefit of the doubt. He was the epitome of Mazzone's 'never give in' philosophy, walking over 3 batters per 9 innings despite having perfect command of his pitches.

    Of course the Hall has members who only made it due to longevity. But all Glavine has is wins - his ERA, strikeouts, shutouts, etc. are not noteworthy. He pitched a full season's worth of playoffs, producing at the same level but going 14-16 against better competition.
    I'm a lifelong Braves fan. I watched nearly every game he pitched. He did get some extra space, but nothing extra than any other control pitcher could get. It's a matter of having incredible control to hit those spots over and over to make the umpire start calling them. Obviously, he did okay when umpires weren't giving him that corner, which tells you plenty. When he walked a guy, it was often because he wanted to. From 1991-2002 (his age 25-36 seasons with Atlanta), he was second in wins to Maddux, started more games than anyone else, had the 5th most shutouts, 2nd most innings pitched, 6th best ERA, and 6th best ERA+ in an era with the peak of Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens, and Greg Maddux also involved in those statistics.
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  2. #82
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer biggentleben's Avatar
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    Here's the voting so far:

    IN
    Greg Maddux, 100
    Craig Biggio, 88.89
    Tom Glavine, 88.89
    Frank Thomas, 81.48

    OUT, BUT STILL ON BALLOT
    Mike Piazza, 74.07
    Barry Bonds, 62.96
    Roger Clemens, 62.96
    Jeff Bagwell, 59.26
    Tim Raines, 48.15
    Jack Morris, 29.63
    Curt Schilling, 29.63
    Mike Mussina, 25.93
    Larry Walker, 14.81
    Edgar Martinez, 11.11
    Mark McGwire, 11.11
    Alan Trammell, 11.11
    Jeff Kent, 7.41
    Lee Smith, 7.41

    OUT, OFF BALLOT
    Fred McGriff, 3.70
    Sammy Sosa, 3.70
    Don Mattingly, 0
    Rafael Palmeiro, 0
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  3. #83
    Maddux
    Biggio
    Thomas
    Bagwell
    Walker
    Glavine
    McGriff
    Mattingly
    Raines
    Smith

  4. #84
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by biggentleben View Post
    From 1991-2002 (his age 25-36 seasons with Atlanta), he was second in wins to Maddux, started more games than anyone else, had the 5th most shutouts, 2nd most innings pitched, 6th best ERA, and 6th best ERA+ in an era with the peak of Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens, and Greg Maddux also involved in those statistics.
    But should the ~5th best pitcher of his era get into the Hall? How many HoF pitchers are active at any given time? Should that change? Were the 1990s-2000s just a golden era for starting pitching? Does the bar move, or is it fixed?

    I consulted BB-Ref for some perspective. There've been 69 pitchers voted into the Hall, spanning the seasons 1871-1988. The average career length is 16.9 years. Therefore for any given 12-year stretch (like 1991-2002), you can expect to touch the careers of 7 different HoF pitchers.

    And according to these figures, Glavine looks to be about the 5th best pitcher from this 12 year stretch. Which, if you believe in a moving bar (and maybe even if you don't), makes him a HoFer.
    Last edited by Willihammer; 12-06-2013 at 10:26 PM.

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  6. #85
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer gil4's Avatar
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    I have started to vote a couple times - I'll try to finish it this time:

    Greg Maddux
    Craig Biggio
    Tom Glavine
    Frank Thomas
    Barry Bonds
    Roger Clemens
    Jeff Bagwell
    Tim Raines
    Alan Trammell

  7. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    And according to these figures, Glavine looks to be about the 5th best pitcher from this 12 year stretch. Which, if you believe in a moving bar (and maybe even if you don't), makes him a HoFer.
    Was he the 5th best pitcher, though? Looking at 1991-2002:

    Maddux, Johnson, Clemens and Martinez are clearly superior.

    The next tier would include Schilling, Brown, Mussina, Glavine, and Smoltz, with maybe Cone probably a half step down from that group.

    Schilling had a far stronger peak and far more dominant post-season performance.

    Smoltz had a stronger peak and went 15-4 in the postseason with a 2.67 ERA. In 1000 fewer innings he finished with 400 more strikeouts than Glavine. He had basically the same number of complete games in 200 fewer starts.

    So I think a very strong case can be made that Glavine was the 3rd best pitcher on his own team and maybe roughly tied for #7 with Mussina.

  8. #87
    Senior Member All-Star Bark's Lounge's Avatar
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    No matter anybody's feelings on Tom Glavine - he is definitely a HOFer. Whether he gets voted in next month or 2015 or 2016 - there is nothing anyone can do to stop it... it is a certainty.

    Circumstances and luck play a great deal into a lot of ballplayer careers. I am sure there are a handful of players with a boat load of talent who ended up with the wrong team, at the wrong time and/or were injured who would have made it to the HOF, but did not. I cannot see the justification in holding good fortune against a baseball player.

    Greg Maddux is in a league of his own, but I still view Glavine as a stronger candidate for the HOF than John Smoltz and I believe John Smoltz should be in the HOF.

    Counting stats are still important to most of the BBWAA and I also have a strong affinity for them. Metrics are changing the game, and I think it is a good thing, but not at the cost of destroying baseball tradition and the eye test.

    Sabremetrics and Old Time Baseball Tradition need to saddle up together, fornicate, and birth a new idealism that exudes the best of both of those worlds.

    To most in these neck of the woods, Kirby Puckett is a sacred, untouchable baseball deity. Let's say Puckett was up for election in 2014 for the first time, I do not believe he would be elected to the HOF... eventually he would, but not on the first go around.

    To me that's F***ed up - just like Glavine not being elected on the 1st ballot would be.

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  10. #88
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    I messed up. 7 active HoF pitchers in a 12 year span would be a really dry stretch of HoF talent.

    The correct average is seventeen HoF pitchers will be active in any given 12 year stretch. And at any given moment, there are, on average, 9 pitchers in some phase of their career who will wind up in the HoF. A lot more than I initially calculated.

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  12. #89
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    For position players, the Hall is less exclusive. 236 players elected whose careers span 1871-2004. Average career length of 16.6 years. Over two HoF position players break into the MLB each year. There are, on average 30 active HoF position players at any given moment.

    So each year about 3 HoFers retire (incl. pitchers). Meaning if the Hall is to maintain its current level of exclusivity, they should be electing just 3 players every year.

    Or to be precise, something like 10 players every 3 years.
    Last edited by Willihammer; 12-07-2013 at 01:43 AM.

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  14. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    I messed up. 7 active HoF pitchers in a 12 year span would be a really dry stretch of HoF talent.

    The correct average is seventeen HoF pitchers will be active in any given 12 year stretch. And at any given moment, there are, on average, 9 pitchers in some phase of their career who will wind up in the HoF. A lot more than I initially calculated.
    You can try to configure the timelines in all kinds of ways. Regardless, there is no basis to argue that the previous rate of admissions is correct - it's just a matter of opinion. I think too many players are in (despite some worthy ones being left out). And either way, a quota system makes zero sense for picking HoF players.

  15. #91
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer biggentleben's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivlikejehu View Post
    You can try to configure the timelines in all kinds of ways. Regardless, there is no basis to argue that the previous rate of admissions is correct - it's just a matter of opinion. I think too many players are in (despite some worthy ones being left out). And either way, a quota system makes zero sense for picking HoF players.
    No one said a quota - he's showing that stating that being the 5th best pitcher in an extended stretch is nearly a guarantee to be in the Hall of Fame. It should be. The Hall of Fame is for the best of the best. Not the best single seasons, but the best extended period of high success. Glavine, despite your insistence against it, was a dominant pitcher for an extended period of time in his career.
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  16. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by biggentleben View Post
    No one said a quota - he's showing that stating that being the 5th best pitcher in an extended stretch is nearly a guarantee to be in the Hall of Fame. It should be. The Hall of Fame is for the best of the best. Not the best single seasons, but the best extended period of high success. Glavine, despite your insistence against it, was a dominant pitcher for an extended period of time in his career.
    He was never a dominant pitcher- that's what stands out relative to most members of the Hall. He was very good for an extremely long time. If he had pitched for the Twins, he would have finished with 250 wins and a worse ERA, and be viewed in a completely different light.

    Look at the difficulty Blyleven had getting in- and he demolishes Glavine in terms of WAR (FG or B-R) and most counting stats, trailing only by 15 wins. Context has traditionally played a huge role in Hall selections, and Glavine is a prime example.

  17. #93
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer biggentleben's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivlikejehu View Post
    He was never a dominant pitcher- that's what stands out relative to most members of the Hall. He was very good for an extremely long time. If he had pitched for the Twins, he would have finished with 250 wins and a worse ERA, and be viewed in a completely different light.

    Look at the difficulty Blyleven had getting in- and he demolishes Glavine in terms of WAR (FG or B-R) and most counting stats, trailing only by 15 wins. Context has traditionally played a huge role in Hall selections, and Glavine is a prime example.
    Then this discussion is done. If you believe he wasn't dominant because he didn't strike people out, you are welcome to that misconception. I'll enjoy reality instead.
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  18. #94
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivlikejehu View Post
    He was never a dominant pitcher- that's what stands out relative to most members of the Hall. He was very good for an extremely long time. If he had pitched for the Twins, he would have finished with 250 wins and a worse ERA, and be viewed in a completely different light.
    I almost agree with you actually. I remember watching the Braves lose all those playoff series back in the 90s and I always thought Glavine was the 3rd best, if not the 4th best pitcher on his own team (when Milwood was on it). In terms of "stuff," I'd put Glavine behind guys like Al Leiter and Kevin Brown even, to say nothing of Johnson, Pedro, Schilling, etc. And the peripheral, strikeout type stats (and even things like opponent OPS and WAR) back that up. Glavine has so much longevity though, that it offsets. When you pitch for 22 years, I don't think you don't have to be the best of the best.

  19. #95
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by biggentleben View Post
    Here's the voting so far:


    OUT, BUT STILL ON BALLOT

    Jack Morris, 29.63
    Nope. On the way to the veteran's committee... last year for him
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  20. #96
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    I almost agree with you actually. I remember watching the Braves lose all those playoff series back in the 90s and I always thought Glavine was the 3rd best, if not the 4th best pitcher on his own team (when Milwood was on it). In terms of "stuff," I'd put Glavine behind guys like Al Leiter and Kevin Brown even, to say nothing of Johnson, Pedro, Schilling, etc. And the peripheral, strikeout type stats (and even things like opponent OPS and WAR) back that up. Glavine has so much longevity though, that it offsets. When you pitch for 22 years, I don't think you don't have to be the best of the best.
    Quick question: Compare Glavine and Blyleven. Who was a more successful pitcher? Hope point is made
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  21. #97
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Quick question: Compare Glavine and Blyleven. Who was a more successful pitcher? Hope point is made
    I didn't watch him pitch, but numbers-wise it has to be Blyleven. Higher peak and larger output.

  22. #98
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer biggentleben's Avatar
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    Assuming no further votes (29 total votes):

    IN:
    Maddux 100%
    Biggio 89.66% (26 votes)
    Glavine 89.66%
    Thomas 82.76% (24 votes)

    OUT, over 5%:
    Piazza 68.97% (20)
    Bagwell 62.07% (18)
    Bonds 62.07%
    Clemens 62.07%
    Raines 51.72% (15)
    Morris 27.59% (8)
    Schilling 27.59%
    Mussina 24.14% (7)
    Walker 17.24% (5)
    Trammell 13.79% (4)
    Martinez 10.34% (3)
    McGwire 10.34%
    Smith 10.34%
    Kent 6.90% (2)
    McGriff 6.90%

    OUT, less than 5%:
    Mattingly 3.45% (1)
    Sosa 3.45%
    Palmeiro 0%
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  23. #99
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer biggentleben's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Nope. On the way to the veteran's committee... last year for him
    Yeah, poor wording, which is why I changed the wording.
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  24. #100
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    Thrylos brought a thought to mind with his HOF standard ~ 75 WAR.

    Is the current number closer to 50 WAR?

    Would WAR/yr be a little more relevant?

    So I took all the players with 50 WAR or greater (297 players). This may miss some of the Gale Sayers equivalents, but what would those players look like in terms of WAR/yr. Jaime Moyer has 50.2 WAR, but with 25 years, he would only have a WAR/yr of 2.0.

    Would4 WAR/yr would be a good cutoff? Just missing the cut with a 4 WAR/yr is Mark McGwire, Frank Thomas, & Ken Griffey, Jr.

    Could be some exceptions for injuries, which if taking out those yrs they would be closer to 5 WAR/yr.

    Here's the results (in increments due to character limit restrictions)

    Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference

    Rank Player (yrs age) WAR HOF ?? Years WAR/yr WAR/YR Rank
    1 Babe Ruth+ (22) 183.8 HOF 22 8.4 1
    3 Walter Johnson+ (21) 165.6 HOF 21 7.9 2
    16 Kid Nichols+ (15) 116.4 HOF 15 7.8 3
    2 Cy Young+ (22) 168.4 HOF 22 7.7 4
    72 Jim McCormick (10) 75.8 - 10 7.6 5
    186 Al Spalding+ (8) 59.2 HOF 8 7.4 6
    4 Barry Bonds (22) 162.5 - 22 7.4 7
    40 Albert Pujols (13, 33) 93.0 - 13 7.2 8
    5 Willie Mays+ (22) 156.1 HOF 22 7.1 9
    54 John Clarkson+ (12) 84.0 HOF 12 7.0 10
    104 Amos Rusie+ (10) 69.3 HOF 10 6.9 11
    18 Lou Gehrig+ (17) 112.5 HOF 17 6.6 12
    14 Ted Williams+ (19) 123.2 HOF 19 6.5 13
    71 Old Hoss Radbourn+ (12) 76.0 HOF 12 6.3 14
    6 Ty Cobb+ (24) 151.2 HOF 24 6.3 15
    10 Honus Wagner+ (21) 130.6 HOF 21 6.2 16
    48 Tim Keefe+ (14) 86.7 HOF 14 6.2 17
    7 Hank Aaron+ (23) 142.4 HOF 23 6.2 18
    164 Jackie Robinson+ (10) 61.4 HOF 10 6.1 19
    168 Tommy Bond (10) 61.0 - 10 6.1 20
    21 Mickey Mantle+ (18) 109.7 HOF 18 6.1 21
    27 Lefty Grove+ (17) 103.6 HOF 17 6.1 22
    9 Tris Speaker+ (22) 133.9 HOF 22 6.1 23
    171 Bob Caruthers (10) 60.6 - 10 6.1 24
    67 Joe DiMaggio+ (13) 78.2 HOF 13 6.0 25
    15 Pete Alexander+ (20) 120.1 HOF 20 6.0 26
    29 Christy Mathewson+ (17) 101.8 HOF 17 6.0 27
    26 Mike Schmidt+ (18) 106.5 HOF 18 5.9 28
    8 Roger Clemens (24) 140.3 - 24 5.8 29
    11 Stan Musial+ (22) 128.1 HOF 22 5.8 30
    17 Alex Rodriguez (20, 37) 115.7 - 20 5.8 31
    200 Joe McGinnity+ (10) 57.8 HOF 10 5.8 32
    34 Eddie Mathews+ (17) 96.2 HOF 17 5.7 33
    157 Charlie Buffinton (11) 62.2 - 11 5.7 34
    221 Jim Whitney (10) 55.7 - 10 5.6 35
    20 Tom Seaver+ (20) 110.5 HOF 20 5.5 36
    12 Rogers Hornsby+ (23) 127.0 HOF 23 5.5 37
    63 Jeff Bagwell (15) 79.5 - 15 5.3 38
    195 Chase Utley (11, 34) 58.2 - 11 5.3 39
    45 Bob Gibson+ (17) 89.9 HOF 17 5.3 40
    Last edited by twinsfan34; 12-29-2013 at 06:00 PM.

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