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Thread: The Return of Mike Pelfrey

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    The Return of Mike Pelfrey

    The Twins have made a two-year offer to Mike Pelfrey, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. However, there's still a gap in salary that needs to be bridged. Pelfrey returned from Tommy John surgery in 2012 to post a 5.19 ERA with 6.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and a career-low 43.2 percent ground-ball rate in 152 2/3 innings. Pelfrey's FIP (3.99) and xFIP (4.54) both suggest that his ERA could have been lower were it not for a .337 BABIP and 67.2 percent strand rate.

    Why even bother? Pelfrey is not going to help in any way. The best thing to do when you are a garbage team is to obviously resign your own trash. PONY UP SOME MONEY AND SIGN SOMEONE GOOD!!!

  2. #2
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notoriousgod71 View Post
    The Twins have made a two-year offer to Mike Pelfrey, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. However, there's still a gap in salary that needs to be bridged. Pelfrey returned from Tommy John surgery in 2012 to post a 5.19 ERA with 6.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and a career-low 43.2 percent ground-ball rate in 152 2/3 innings. Pelfrey's FIP (3.99) and xFIP (4.54) both suggest that his ERA could have been lower were it not for a .337 BABIP and 67.2 percent strand rate.

    Why even bother? Pelfrey is not going to help in any way. The best thing to do when you are a garbage team is to obviously resign your own trash. PONY UP SOME MONEY AND SIGN SOMEONE GOOD!!!
    I actually like Pelfrey as a bounce back candidate, he came back really early from TJS and showed some flashes this year, additionally his FIP and xFIP as stated above show that he got unlucky. Steamer projects him as a 4.27 ERA this year, which is fine for a #4/#5 guy.

    To be honest, I would rather give Pelfrey 2/8 or something like that, then give Arroyo 3/36 or 3/30. I think Pelfrey has a chance to be just as effective as someone like that over the next couple years, costs a lot less and allows you to spend more money on a front end guy like Garza.

    Question:

    If the Twins signed Garza and Pelfrey this off-season along with a bat, would you be satisfied?

    Hell, if anything, signing Pelfrey gives you the opp to sign a guy like Garza along with a high risk/high reward guy like Kazmir.

    Garza
    Kazmir
    Gibson
    Correia
    Pelfrey

    DeDuno, Meyer waiting in the wings....could be a decent start.

    Prior to the injury Pelfrey was putting up about 200 IP a year for the Mets, if he can give you 180-200 IP with a 4.25-4.40 ERA he ends up being a pretty nice signing. (And that isn't factoring in the chance he could even put a sub 4.00 ERA up)
    Last edited by SpiritofVodkaDave; 11-26-2013 at 09:21 PM.

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    It is frustrating but not surprising. The team is loyal to a fault and really seems to prefer the comfort of old faces to new endeavors. Stubbornness is not a positive trait but perhaps they are only offering $3-4 million per. That wouldn't be a huge problem I guess aside from the fact that two years probably guarantees a rotation spot. Could make a bigger signing more possible though.

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    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    It is frustrating but not surprising. The team is loyal to a fault and really seems to prefer the comfort of old faces to new endeavors. Stubbornness is not a positive trait but perhaps they are only offering $3 million per. That wouldn't be a huge problem I guess aside from the fact that two years probably guarantees a rotation spot.
    Two years wouldn't guarantee a rotation spot at all, the Twins have shown in the very recent past they aren't afraid to send a guy down who isn't preforming, even on a guaranteed deal: Nishi, Blackburn etc

    Again, don't spend a lot fortifying the back end of your rotation, save that money for a high upside pitcher like Garza.

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    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    3M per year? Why would he take a pay cut?

    If we offered him two years, I'm guessing the total value is going to be closer to 10-15. Which would be a bit infuriating. If we sign him I have a feeling that what we'll regret most of all is not getting a team option or multi-year deal last year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    I actually like Pelfrey as a bounce back candidate, he came back really early from TJS and showed some flashes this year, additionally his FIP and xFIP as stated above show that he got unlucky. Steamer projects him as a 4.27 ERA this year, which is fine for a #4/#5 guy.

    To be honest, I would rather give Pelfrey 2/8 or something like that, then give Arroyo 3/36 or 3/30. I think Pelfrey has a chance to be just as effective as someone like that over the next couple years, costs a lot less and allows you to spend more money on a front end guy like Garza.

    Question:

    If the Twins signed Garza and Pelfrey this off-season along with a bat, would you be satisfied?

    Hell, if anything, signing Pelfrey gives you the opp to sign a guy like Garza along with a high risk/high reward guy like Kazmir.

    Garza
    Kazmir
    Gibson
    Correia
    Pelfrey

    DeDuno, Meyer waiting in the wings....could be a decent start.

    Prior to the injury Pelfrey was putting up about 200 IP a year for the Mets, if he can give you 180-200 IP with a 4.25-4.40 ERA he ends up being a pretty nice signing. (And that isn't factoring in the chance he could even put a sub 4.00 ERA up)
    If they signed Garza AND a bat... it depends who that bat is. I just have absolutely zero faith that Ryan can or will fix this mess. He essentially puts together a team in the exact opposite way I would and I like about one out of ten of his moves.

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    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    3M per year? Why would he take a pay cut?

    If we offered him two years, I'm guessing the total value is going to be closer to 10-15. Which would be a bit infuriating. If we sign him I have a feeling that what we'll regret most of all is not getting a team option or multi-year deal last year.
    His last 4 years with the Mets he averaged 196 IP a year and a 4.22 ERA, FWIW he also had the highest K rate of his career last year as a Twin at 6.0. After he was brought back up he put up 63 K in 82 inning which creeps him closer to a 7.0 k/9 rate.

    None of that of course is a sure thing, which is why he comes cheap. However, if given the choice between Pelfrey at 2/10 or 38 year old Arroyo for three times the total salary and 1 more year? Give me Pelfrey. Ideally you could get him on 2/10 or 2/12 with a 7 million dollar TEAM option for a third year

    I will only be infuriated if he is the best pitcher we sign this off-season

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    I too have thought a great deal about Pelfrey. I can't say I dislike the idea based on what he did with the Mets when healthy, what he did about the middle of the season, and as a stronger this year bounce back candidate. I just feel it's like signing another Correia and we need better than that. And I feel he's a good 3rd signing, but am afraid signing him precludes signing 2 other better options, plus quality help at C. Unless we either get lucky, or the coffers are really going to open this year.

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    Super Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    If nothing else, having him in the rotation will boost in stadium concession sales. You can go get a beer and nachos between pitches. With runners on you might even have time to hit the men's room.
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    His last 4 years with the Mets he averaged 196 IP a year and a 4.22 ERA, FWIW he also had the highest K rate of his career last year as a Twin at 6.0. After he was brought back up he put up 63 K in 82 inning which creeps him closer to a 7.0 k/9 rate.

    None of that of course is a sure thing, which is why he comes cheap. However, if given the choice between Pelfrey at 2/10 or 38 year old Arroyo for three times the total salary and 1 more year? Give me Pelfrey. Ideally you could get him on 2/10 or 2/12 with a 7 million dollar TEAM option for a third year

    I will only be infuriated if he is the best pitcher we sign this off-season
    37 year old on opening day Arroyo (2/24/77) for 30 million or Pelf for 10.Can Pelfrey be the starter he was in New York in average war? That would be as good as the recent production from Arroyo.

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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    If nothing else, having him in the rotation will boost in stadium concession sales. You can go get a beer and nachos between pitches. With runners on you might even have time to hit the men's room.
    I stopped watching the dude pitch because I found his routine so aggravating.

  13. #12
    Please ban me! All-Star stringer bell's Avatar
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    I hate to say it, but my prediction is that Pelfrey will be signed for more than most think he should get and that he will be the best player the Twins sign. 2-$13? Two years plus an option? I dislike his mound presence, but he did improve as the season progressed and he'll only be 30 next year. He throws harder than anyone on the starting staff and he is willing to come back to Minnesota.

  14. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by notoriousgod71 View Post
    If they signed Garza AND a bat... it depends who that bat is. I just have absolutely zero faith that Ryan can or will fix this mess. He essentially puts together a team in the exact opposite way I would and I like about one out of ten of his moves.
    That is the beauty of being a fan. LOTS of fans think they know how to run a MLB franchise better than those who have the job. Hard to imagine why they pay GMs $1M+ year when there are so many people working for $50K (or less) a year who can do the job better.

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    Twins Daily Writer All-Star Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
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    Seth and I had a quite long discussion with Mike Berardino tonight about Pelfrey. You can view it in Episode 3 (link on the frontpage).

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    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DocBauer View Post
    I too have thought a great deal about Pelfrey. I can't say I dislike the idea based on what he did with the Mets when healthy, what he did about the middle of the season, and as a stronger this year bounce back candidate. I just feel it's like signing another Correia and we need better than that. And I feel he's a good 3rd signing, but am afraid signing him precludes signing 2 other better options, plus quality help at C. Unless we either get lucky, or the coffers are really going to open this year.
    As I mentioned in the world's greatest blue print ever, the Twins don't HAVE to sign everyone this year, as 2014 they should be aiming to get to the .500 range, they can still sign players next off-season as well. Which is why, at the end of the day I would be happy with a high upside pitcher liker Garza+Pelfrey along with a bat. Leaving plenty of money to sign another solid arm or two (Bailey?) prior to 2015.

    Hell, maybe the dream scenario would be to: Sign Garza or a Nolasco/Jimenez type guy, Trade for Bailey (Twins linked to him today in trade talks), give Bailey a 5 year extension, sign Pelfrey, sign Salty/AJ

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    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Now that we suffered through the last half of his recuperation might as well bring him back. He should be better next year.

    I just hope the plan isn't to do the same with Gavin Floyd next season.

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    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Added bonus, staying on Boras' good side

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    Quote Originally Posted by Major Leauge Ready View Post
    That is the beauty of being a fan. LOTS of fans think they know how to run a MLB franchise better than those who have the job. Hard to imagine why they pay GMs $1M+ year when there are so many people working for $50K (or less) a year who can do the job better.
    While this is mostly true, given the same resources as Ryan the last three years, I think many fans could luck their way into consecutive 90 loss seasons.

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    Senior Member Triple-A Sconnie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    I actually like Pelfrey as a bounce back candidate, he came back really early from TJS and showed some flashes this year, additionally his FIP and xFIP as stated above show that he got unlucky.
    Prior to the injury Pelfrey was putting up about 200 IP a year for the Mets, if he can give you 180-200 IP with a 4.25-4.40 ERA he ends up being a pretty nice signing. (And that isn't factoring in the chance he could even put a sub 4.00 ERA up)
    im p.o.ed too. It's not that Pelfrey is bad. He's fine, if he were a finishing touch to round out a GOOD rotation, I would be over the moon. The problem is, he's the first, not the last. There's already plans for yet another 5 plus ERA back of the rotation filler guy who's just like the rest of a rotation full of back of the rotation filler guys, and no real movement yet ( and probably won't be) on a high end front of the rotation guy or three.
    Last edited by Sconnie; 11-26-2013 at 10:04 PM. Reason: Stupid auto correct

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    Quote Originally Posted by Major Leauge Ready View Post
    That is the beauty of being a fan. LOTS of fans think they know how to run a MLB franchise better than those who have the job. Hard to imagine why they pay GMs $1M+ year when there are so many people working for $50K (or less) a year who can do the job better.
    I would bet a good deal of posters here could do the job better. Unfortunately not one of us will ever get that chance.

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