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Thread: Homer Bailey

  1. #21
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    Bailey is similar to Jimenez, Santana, and potentially Kazmir and company.

    Anyway, do you like the possibility of Plouffe, D. Santana, D.J. Baxendale, and Zach Jones for Bailey? (sub Harrison in for any of the last three)???
    No he isn't similar to them, he is 27 and now just entering his prime. Ubaldo has been very inconsistent his last three years, what pitcher is he? The One who pitched well in 2013 for the Indians? Or the one who put up a 5.25 ERA int he two years prior for Clev?
    Santana- no.
    Kazmir...i Like him, but are you kidding me? He had his first decent (4.04 ERA) in FIVE years.

    Your suggested trade offer is all I need to see to not take any of this seriously, you can't trade 4 guys with zero value and get something great back.

    Plouffe is a mediocre 3rd baseman, Baxendale is low upside back end starter at best, Zach Jones is in A ball and a RP with control issues, and Travis Harrison is still a long shot as well.

  2. #22
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    No he isn't similar to them, he is 27 and now just entering his prime. Ubaldo has been very inconsistent his last three years, what pitcher is he? The One who pitched well in 2013 for the Indians? Or the one who put up a 5.25 ERA int he two years prior for Clev?
    Santana- no.
    Kazmir...i Like him, but are you kidding me? He had his first decent (4.04 ERA) in FIVE years.

    Your suggested trade offer is all I need to see to not take any of this seriously, you can't trade 4 guys with zero value and get something great back.

    Plouffe is a mediocre 3rd baseman, Baxendale is low upside back end starter at best, Zach Jones is in A ball and a RP with control issues, and Travis Harrison is still a long shot as well.
    To you Homer Bailey is in the top three of all pitchers either on the market or being shopped around? Really?

    I am not sure what is so egregious about my trade offer. The point was to offer some diversity. What about Plouffe, Harrison, R. Rosario, and Jones? You have to consider the money difference here too.

  3. #23
    I'd just like to quickly summarise my optimism for the Twins off-season and this proposed trade with a short clip that I feel really encapsulates our emotions

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DwFK5kWlh9M

  4. #24
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    To you Homer Bailey is in the top three of all pitchers either on the market or being shopped around? Really?

    I am not sure what is so egregious about my trade offer. The point was to offer some diversity. What about Plouffe, Harrison, R. Rosario, and Jones? You have to consider the money difference here too.
    Tanaka is a complete unknown so I am leaving him out of this period.
    As far as free agents: I think Garza is the only one more attractive, and as far as realistic pitchers being shopped, David Price is obviously the gold standard. There was a rumbling about Shelby Miller being shopped, but frankly that isn't an option period. So yeah, Bailey is right there for me as realistic target.

    What is so egregious about your trade offer, is none of those players have any value. Plouffe would be a bench bat for Cinci, and within a year or two is a non tender candidate unless he turns it around. Jones and Rosario are both on the outside of the Twins top 25 prospects. Harrison is really the only thing of value, but even his is pretty limited at this point as he isn't close at all to being a top 100 or 150 prospect at this point.

  5. #25
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Tanaka is a complete unknown so I am leaving him out of this period.
    As far as free agents: I think Garza is the only one more attractive, and as far as realistic pitchers being shopped, David Price is obviously the gold standard. There was a rumbling about Shelby Miller being shopped, but frankly that isn't an option period. So yeah, Bailey is right there for me as realistic target.

    What is so egregious about your trade offer, is none of those players have any value. Plouffe would be a bench bat for Cinci, and within a year or two is a non tender candidate unless he turns it around. Jones and Rosario are both on the outside of the Twins top 25 prospects. Harrison is really the only thing of value, but even his is pretty limited at this point as he isn't close at all to being a top 100 or 150 prospect at this point.
    Ok, but the Reds are not just trading away from a position of lack or potential lack. They have some damn good pitching. Anyway, third base is not set in stone for them. Plouffe has some good value there. Santana would provide depth for the Phillips move coming soon. Jones is young but a great risk for a team. Harrison is a potential good bat from 1b/DH at the least.

    I am not sure how an MLB player and some 3 minor leaguers with good value doesn't work here.

  6. #26
    Any chance Cinci would covet Perkins if they were to put their current closer in the rotation?
    BYTO R.I.P.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by freshinthehouse View Post
    Any chance Cinci would covet Perkins if they were to put their current closer in the rotation?
    Hmmm...I like your thinking, but I dont think the Twins are willing to give up Perkins. One of the best Closers in the league with a very team friendly contract. Then again whats the point of having a great closer if your starting pitchers aren't good enough to set him up for a save opportunity?

  8. #28
    Besides the obvious ones. I would be strongly against Arcia being involved and would have pretty mixed feelings about dealing Rosario or Berrios.

  9. #29
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    I don't think the Twins would be able to do this without Arcia in the offer. Rosario's value took a hit with the suspension, so he can't be a centerpiece.

    You also have to take into account that this is a team in the mode to win now, so your offer has to be built around instant or very close contributors. I like Bailey, but I'm not sure what it'd take to get him from the Twins is a pill you'll want to swallow.

  10. #30
    Senior Member Triple-A goulik's Avatar
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    Rosario, Willingham, Plouffe, Worley, Gibson, Duensing, Swarzak.
    Pick three

  11. #31
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    Are you willing to roll the dice on Rosario coming back next year, and trade Dozier + Gibson or May for him?
    Lighten up Francis....

  12. #32
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Are you willing to roll the dice on Rosario coming back next year, and trade Dozier + Gibson or May for him?
    In a heartbeat.

    Dozier+Gibson+Plouffe maybe gets em to bite?

    As far as "center pieces go" I would prefer the following to give up:
    1. Perkins
    2. Dozier
    3. Rosario

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  14. #33
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    I don't think the Twins would be able to do this without Arcia in the offer. Rosario's value took a hit with the suspension, so he can't be a centerpiece.

    You also have to take into account that this is a team in the mode to win now, so your offer has to be built around instant or very close contributors. I like Bailey, but I'm not sure what it'd take to get him from the Twins is a pill you'll want to swallow.
    It depends...Rosario is still a top 60 or so prospect and his value isn't going to take a massive hit. He wasn't going to start out in MLB this year anyways.

    If they are planning on resigning Choo (which it sounds like they want to make a run at him if they can shed Bailey and Phillips contracts) then they don't need Arcia at all with Hamilton in CF and Bruce in RF.

    As far as immediate help, Dozier or Perkins could provide that.

  15. #34
    Senior Member Double-A SgtSchmidt11's Avatar
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    I also like Bailey. I think he would be better then Garza. But on the other hand Wahl makes a good point. Let's just lock up Garza and pick up Bailey next year in FA if available.

  16. #35
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    Well initial reports were that Bailey was intent on hitting the open market so I'm not trading anything of value for one year of a guy in another likely bad season.

    But if we are playing the hypothetical game, if the Twins take on the the Phillips salary, could they then trade Dozier as a replacement and give up lesser prospects? Or does Phillips still have added value despite the decline and the contract?
    Last edited by nicksaviking; 11-27-2013 at 09:18 AM.

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  18. #36
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    I don't think the Twins would be able to do this without Arcia in the offer.
    I doubt that. Team control is the mitigating factor with bailey.

    3 years of Perkins for 1 of Bailey straight up should be enough to get it done really

  19. #37
    Senior Member Double-A iTwins's Avatar
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    I'd want to know Bailey is keen to signing an extension before making any deal. If he's willing to avoid free agency, then yes - I'm all in.

    I'd try to center a package around Perkins / Dozier / Plouffe - with some mid-level prospects (Harrison for example) tossed in to sweeten the pot. I'm a big Berrios fan and am not big on trading Rosario. I know it's hard to acquire a pitcher like Bailey without giving SOMETHING up, but I'd fight like heck to keep our top 10 prospects out of this deal.

  20. #38
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Well initial reports were that Bailey was intent on hitting the open market so I'm not trading anything of value for one year of a guy in another likely bad season.
    Every player in a contract year are intent on hitting the open market....until they are offered an extension that makes sense. Again, if the Twins trade for him and offer him 6/95 (basically tearing up this years 4 mil in arb contract he would be owed) Do you really think he wouldn't listen/seriously consider? (The extension more or less would mirror the Sanchez contract)

  21. #39
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    I like the idea of seeing what taking on Phillips contract does to a deal. Does us taking on that contract make them willing to accept a lesser package of prospects? Not sure what it would take but just a couple thoughts

    This is why it sucks that Rosario was suspended. He would be such a nice major league ready prospect that is somewhat expendable if you count on Dozier to continue to play well.

    I wouldn't have a problem dealing Gibson except I feel like we'd be selling low. If they are still viewing him as a top 50 prospect who just struggled in his first taste of the majors then yes, I'd consider it.

    It's tough to deal anyone really because we can potentially upgrade at every single position it seems like. Tough to deal Arcia because we dont' have a lot of power corner outfielders in the pipeline. obviously Sano,Buxton, Meyer are off the table. Gibson's value is low, Rosario suspended, Pinto is our only major league ready catcher who has starting potential.

    Last, no way you can get this deal done unless Bailey signs an extension. We don't need Bailey for this year, we need him for 2015 and beyond. If we can get him for one good prospect (Rosario, Arcia, Pinto) and maybe some filler and he signs a reasonable extension. It might be worth it. If he has another good year and hits free agency he could be commanding 25 million plus a year.

  22. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Every player in a contract year are intent on hitting the open market....until they are offered an extension that makes sense. Again, if the Twins trade for him and offer him 6/95 (basically tearing up this years 4 mil in arb contract he would be owed) Do you really think he wouldn't listen/seriously consider? (The extension more or less would mirror the Sanchez contract)
    That would still require the Twins taking a huge leap of faith that Bailey doesn't just tell the Twins to screw off because he has a different destination in mind and it would also require Ryan making an unprescedented offer that Bailey knows he can't beat later. Free agents have done the first to the Twins many times and Ryan has done the later never.

    It would be foolish to assume the Twins can and will extend him. A trade shouldn't happen unless the assumption become an almost certain fact.

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