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Thread: It's not delivery, its Deduno...

  1. #1
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    It's not delivery, its Deduno...

    I don't understand why so many are quick to write off Deduno's future in the rotation. I thought he really turned a corner last year in realizing how to pitch with the extreme amount of movement on his pitches.

    He's only 30 and hasn't had a lot of wear on his arm IP wise. He is cost controlled not even being arbitration eligible until 2016. After having an amazing WBC run winning it all for the Dominican's he missed some time to start the year as well as at the end of the year but hasnt had a significant injury history Im aware of.

    Only 1 start he didnt go atleast 5 IP last year was when he was pulled due to injury. He is the type of pitcher who will have a real bad clunker on occasion but will give you many more starts where he unhittable. I'll take a SP every time who will give you 7 IP with 2 ER or less 4 games followed by a 5 IP 5 ER clunker over the SP who will consistently give you 5-6 IP with 4 ER.

    Prior to trying to pitch through shoulder woes where he had a brutal 3 game stretch before being shutdown he was 8-5 with a 3.17 era. He is the epitome of what you want in a back of the rotation starter. A cheap veteran who's able to matchup with the other teams ace on almost any given night.

    Besides that his starts are crazy fun to watch!

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  3. #2
    Senior Member Triple-A DocBauer's Avatar
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    I have to agree completely. While his control will never be tremendous, and he will always lack some consistency, he seems to have a modicum of control by simply trusting his stuff and letting it fly, rather than trying too hard to be fine. If we continue to take the necessary steps we are embarking on to improve our rotation; Nolasco, to be named, Correia, Gibson, Deduno healthy, Worley and Diamond in the wings as challengers, (possibly Albers) we are moving from lousy to possibly "good" this year.

    A "good" rotation might not be World Series capable, but is far better than we've had for 3-4 years. And with Gibson' potential and Meyer following soon, there is the potential for even better.

    And while there will be clunker innings and clunker games on occasion when his pitches simply have a mind of their own, 4 out of 5 games being solidd to good with 5 innings, often 6, occasional 6+, I would gladly take that over the Walters and Hernandezs of the world.

    My only concern is his full health. We hear his injury was mild and he only needed rest and a little rehab. But we've heard that before

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  5. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by DocBauer View Post
    My only concern is his full health. We hear his injury was mild and he only needed rest and a little rehab. But we've heard that before
    This is the only concerning part is it is the Twins medical staff... Not even weathermen are wrong as often.

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  7. #4
    Speediest Moderator All-Star snepp's Avatar
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    I'd rather have a wild card like Deduno in the #5/6 starter spot than the guaranteed mediocrity that's been trotted out there all too often over the last few years.
    "Maybe you could go grab a bat and ball… and learn something. Maybe you will get it."
    - Strib commenter educating the elitists on the value of RBI's

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  9. #5
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    Alright... let me throw this out:

    Please give me a single objective and measurable criterium (or any piece of data you like, but it has to be objective and measurable) that Deduno is above replacement level in his prime (now and for the last 2 seasons)

    Thank you.
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  10. #6
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    Last year 3.83 ERA? sincerly he was our best pitcher, when he was here, and he was hurt the entire season

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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Alright... let me throw this out:

    Please give me a single objective and measurable criterium (or any piece of data you like, but it has to be objective and measurable) that Deduno is above replacement level in his prime (now and for the last 2 seasons)

    Thank you.
    In over half his starts last year he pitched into the 7th inning while giving up 2 or less runs.

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  13. #8
    Speediest Moderator All-Star snepp's Avatar
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    3.83 era 4.04 fip 4.06 xfip 4.13 sierra

    with 1 WAR over his 108 innings last year. Those were luck-neutral numbers as well, expected babip, hr/fb, and lob rates.

    That's above replacement level, no? *shrug*


    Whether or not he can do that over a full season, or multiple seasons, is another thing.
    "Maybe you could go grab a bat and ball… and learn something. Maybe you will get it."
    - Strib commenter educating the elitists on the value of RBI's

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  15. #9
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    He struggled to hit 90 mph the entire season, he normally is 94mph, so that tells me he pitched hurt the entire season and did a decent job, and if he was only replacement level that is still better then 89% of the rest of our teams starts...wasnt it?

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  17. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by snepp View Post
    3.83 era 4.04 fip 4.06 xfip 4.13 sierra

    with 1 WAR over his 108 innings last year. Those were luck-neutral numbers as well, expected babip, hr/fb, and lob rates.

    That's above replacement level, no? *shrug*


    Whether or not he can do that over a full season, or multiple seasons, is another thing.
    If you take out his last 3 1/2 starts where he was obviously hurt Im sure those numbers change significantly.

  18. #11
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    "Give me Deduno or give me death!"

    I'll go on record as saying no matter who else they sign Deduno will end up the 2nd best starting pitcher on the staff.

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  20. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by johnnydakota View Post
    Last year 3.83 ERA? sincerly he was our best pitcher, when he was here, and he was hurt the entire season
    Yes, his ERA was below 3.5 until toward the end of the season when the injury was becoming more problematic. I just don't get how little credit he gets. He was the only SP I was excited to watch last year. I wached Gibson hoping to see him emerge but that did not go so well. Deduno was the most entertaining for me.

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  22. #13
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    only one thing wrong with this post...

    Quote Originally Posted by DocBauer View Post
    I have to agree completely. While his control will never be tremendous, and he will always lack some consistency, he seems to have a modicum of control by simply trusting his stuff and letting it fly, rather than trying too hard to be fine. If we continue to take the necessary steps we are embarking on to improve our rotation; Nolasco, to be named, Correia, Gibson, Deduno healthy, Worley and Diamond in the wings as challengers, (possibly Albers) we are moving from lousy to possibly "good" this year.

    A "good" rotation might not be World Series capable, but is far better than we've had for 3-4 years. And with Gibson' potential and Meyer following soon, there is the potential for even better.

    And while there will be clunker innings and clunker games on occasion when his pitches simply have a mind of their own, 4 out of 5 games being solidd to good with 5 innings, often 6, occasional 6+, I would gladly take that over the Walters and Hernandezs of the world.

    My only concern is his full health. We hear his injury was mild and he only needed rest and a little rehab. But we've heard that before
    Deduno has top of the rotation stuff, not bottom, and if he stays healthy, he will be our best pitcher and is already better than the free agents available

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  24. #14
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    I really like watching Deduno pitch. A little comedy in baseball is always different, I like it. Hopefully he's healthy this season, as he'll be needed.

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  26. #15
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    Count me in as a huge Deduno fan. He seemed to be able to get his strikeouts when he needed them last year. My only reservation is his shoulder injuries. They can be career enders. It appears that Meyer's shoulder responded well to some time off. Hopefully Deduno's does also. He did pitch in the WBC. Started the championship game so he had some high stress innings pitched even before the season started. Hopefully he just needs this offseason to get healthy.

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  28. #16
    Senior Member Triple-A zchrz's Avatar
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    I like Deduno, I think he has the stuff too be part of a quality rotation. He looked to have really taken a step forward last year. If they sign 1 more pitcher and go with a Deduno/ Gibson back end of the rotation I will be satisfied, there will be potential instead of just cannon fodder on the mound. Heck if they both pitch well Corriea could be the one bumped down the depth chart for Meyer or whomever is demanding a shot.
    Last edited by zchrz; 11-30-2013 at 02:26 AM.
    "Professionalism - When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - Hunter S Thompson

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  30. #17
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    I guess I'll be the naysayer here. I think Deduno is ripe for regression. His 5.6K/9, 3.4BB/9 and 1.352 WHIP all hint at luck more than stuff. Deduno survived because he got groundballs 59.7% of the time. That would easily have been the best in baseball if he had qualified. That seems likely to regress some. When that happens his HR/9 rate will increase as well.

  31. #18
    Senior Member Triple-A Reider's Avatar
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    I am a huge Deduno fan. He has good movement on his pitches and plays great under pressure. He's a real treat to watch. I hope he's healthy and ready to go for the 2014 season.

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  33. #19
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    I am enjoying the posts in this thread, especially the posts of the Rookies. The optimism about Deduno is contagious, and the naysayers are being factual and respectful.

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  35. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    I guess I'll be the naysayer here. I think Deduno is ripe for regression. His 5.6K/9, 3.4BB/9 and 1.352 WHIP all hint at luck more than stuff. Deduno survived because he got groundballs 59.7% of the time. That would easily have been the best in baseball if he had qualified. That seems likely to regress some. When that happens his HR/9 rate will increase as well.
    It is true that his k/9 rate went down but until late in the year he produced a lot of very weakly hit GBs. However, it did not translate in terms of BABIP. That might be somewhat a product of his problems later in the season. His BABIP ended up the same as Liriano and Garza.

    K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB GB% HR/FB ERA
    Garza --- 7.88 2.43 1.16 .290 73.4% 38.6% 11.6% 3.82
    Liriano --- 9.11 3.52 0.50 .290 77.6% 50.5% 8.3 % 3.02
    Deduno -- 5.58 3.42 0.58 .291 73.7% 59.7 % 10.3 % 3.83

    He had a good k/9 rate in AAA with the Twins. Now that he has some big league experience, it would not be unreasonable to believe he could increase that K/9 rate a little and tighten up the walk rate.
    Last edited by Major Leauge Ready; 11-30-2013 at 07:18 AM.

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