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Thread: It's not delivery, its Deduno...

  1. #21
    Senior Member Triple-A whydidnt's Avatar
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    I have to say, though Deduno and Diamond are different kinds of pitchers, we saw the same sort of optimism on Diamond around here last year, and we all saw how that worked out. Deduno could be that rare guy that figures it out late in in career and goes on to have some productive years because he's just different enough. His K/9 & BB/9 just don't scream "stuff" to me. I just think that he's not the kind of guy you count on as a top of the rotation starter (any more than we should have with Diamond last year). If you want to pencil him at 5 and hope he does better, then I'm on board.

    I just think the goal should be having better players than your opponents, and I'm pretty hard pressed to find any AL Central team that doesn't have 3 or probably 4 starters that I wouldn't rather have than Deduno.

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  3. #22
    Senior Member Triple-A whydidnt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnydakota View Post
    He struggled to hit 90 mph the entire season, he normally is 94mph, so that tells me he pitched hurt the entire season and did a decent job, and if he was only replacement level that is still better then 89% of the rest of our teams starts...wasnt it?
    Or, was that just the "Anderson effect". Take something off it and throw it over the plate.
    Seriously, I don't really know what his physical condition was, it does not seem all that unusual for Twins pitchers to lose some K/9's after spending some time with the big league club though.

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  5. #23
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    I realize we all hate pitching to contact, but Deduno is one of those pitchers who seemed to benefit from that. He induced a lot of weakly hit balls to himself or the catcher. He has 35 chances to record out in 108 innings. About every third inning a ball was hit to him, which doesnt include balls hit to the catcher. FOr reference, COrreia has 36 in 80 more innings. His walks decreased almost 3 batters per nine innings last year (6.0 to 3.4). It will depend on if he "regains" his velocity that will help him and we will see if he can be count on this year or in the future.

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  7. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Alright... let me throw this out:

    Please give me a single objective and measurable criterium (or any piece of data you like, but it has to be objective and measurable) that Deduno is above replacement level in his prime (now and for the last 2 seasons)

    Thank you.
    Most people don't consider WAR a legitimate statistic.

  8. #25
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    I enjoy watching Deduno pitch. I do think that taking just a little velocity off his pitches, he can throw more strikes and get just as much movement. Hitters didn't make solid contact on him, and that makes the lower k rate less meaningful. I'm not 100% buying it. I've just always found him intriguing. 2014 will be interesting for him.

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  10. #26
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by snepp View Post
    3.83 era 4.04 fip 4.06 xfip 4.13 sierra

    with 1 WAR over his 108 innings last year. Those were luck-neutral numbers as well, expected babip, hr/fb, and lob rates.

    That's above replacement level, no? *shrug*


    Whether or not he can do that over a full season, or multiple seasons, is another thing.
    As a starter with the Twins his SIERA in 2012 was 5.04 and in 2013 4.13. Career average, including his RP stints is 4.47.

    Here is the SIERA table from here:

    Rating SIERA
    Excellent 2.90
    Great 3.25
    Above Average 3.75
    Average 3.90
    Below Average 4.20
    Poor 4.50
    Awful 5.00

    So his best season was up to below average, career average is at the poor level and the season before he was awful. If that does not scream replacement level, I don't know what does...

    FIP, tRA, xFIP all saying the same story.

    Not that he cannot be a 5th starter in the majors. That's replacement level in most places. My point is that Worley is likely at least at that level, has had success and has still to enter his prime, so he is better suited than Deduno for that spot.

    And, yes, he is fun to watch pitching. Nobody denies that. Juan Morillo was fun to watch too...
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  12. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marta Shearing View Post
    Most people don't consider WAR a legitimate statistic.
    Most people don't consider most people to be a legitimate reference source.

  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by MichiganTwins View Post
    I realize we all hate pitching to contact, but Deduno is one of those pitchers who seemed to benefit from that. ...
    Can I really be the only one on TD who appreciates the irony of all the "pitching to contact" hate?

  14. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by whydidnt View Post
    Or, was that just the "Anderson effect". Take something off it and throw it over the plate.
    Seriously, I don't really know what his physical condition was, it does not seem all that unusual for Twins pitchers to lose some K/9's after spending some time with the big league club though.
    His agent reported that Samuel had some kind of surgery last fall on his shoulder...wether it was just a scope or if they tightened up some things in the rotocuff im not sure

  15. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    As a starter with the Twins his SIERA in 2012 was 5.04 and in 2013 4.13. Career average, including his RP stints is 4.47.

    Here is the SIERA table from here:

    Rating SIERA
    Excellent 2.90
    Great 3.25
    Above Average 3.75
    Average 3.90
    Below Average 4.20
    Poor 4.50
    Awful 5.00

    So his best season was up to below average, career average is at the poor level and the season before he was awful. If that does not scream replacement level, I don't know what does...

    FIP, tRA, xFIP all saying the same story.

    Not that he cannot be a 5th starter in the majors. That's replacement level in most places. My point is that Worley is likely at least at that level, has had success and has still to enter his prime, so he is better suited than Deduno for that spot.

    And, yes, he is fun to watch pitching. Nobody denies that. Juan Morillo was fun to watch too...
    So at slightly below average,Samuel was the best rated starting pitcher? hahaha last year we were bad, do I think DeDuno is an all star ? No but to me you have to let him compete for a spot in the rotation, but then again , Im all for making each pitcher compete and take the 5 best North

  16. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Major Leauge Ready View Post
    It is true that his k/9 rate went down but until late in the year he produced a lot of very weakly hit GBs. However, it did not translate in terms of BABIP. That might be somewhat a product of his problems later in the season. His BABIP ended up the same as Liriano and Garza.

    K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB GB% HR/FB ERA
    Garza --- 7.88 2.43 1.16 .290 73.4% 38.6% 11.6% 3.82
    Liriano --- 9.11 3.52 0.50 .290 77.6% 50.5% 8.3 % 3.02
    Deduno -- 5.58 3.42 0.58 .291 73.7% 59.7 % 10.3 % 3.83

    He had a good k/9 rate in AAA with the Twins. Now that he has some big league experience, it would not be unreasonable to believe he could increase that K/9 rate a little and tighten up the walk rate.
    At 30 years old he is a back of the rotation starter. If that is what everyone is excited about then no problem. Maybe we're just arguing the semantics of the word "excited." When I think of who I'm excited about it only refers to better than average pitchers. Maybe that is the confusion here.

    If the Twins want Deduno, Worley and Hendriks to fight it out for that #5 starter role I have no problem with that.

  17. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    As a starter with the Twins his SIERA in 2012 was 5.04 and in 2013 4.13. Career average, including his RP stints is 4.47.

    Here is the SIERA table from here:

    Rating SIERA
    Excellent 2.90
    Great 3.25
    Above Average 3.75
    Average 3.90
    Below Average 4.20
    Poor 4.50
    Awful 5.00

    So his best season was up to below average, career average is at the poor level and the season before he was awful. If that does not scream replacement level, I don't know what does...

    FIP, tRA, xFIP all saying the same story.

    Not that he cannot be a 5th starter in the majors. That's replacement level in most places. My point is that Worley is likely at least at that level, has had success and has still to enter his prime, so he is better suited than Deduno for that spot.

    And, yes, he is fun to watch pitching. Nobody denies that. Juan Morillo was fun to watch too...
    Thanks for the perspective. Just a real question. Wouldn't the SIERA table change for every season? If so, I am not sure how you would put multiple years or career numbers in the same table. In any case, his numbers aren't good whatever the classification.

    If the Twins sign one more starter, they will likely need to DFA one or two of Deduno, Worley and Diamond. Given his age, Deduno better have a strong healthy spring.

    Deduno has some upside and service time. If another signing pushes him out, it had better be for a top of the rotation guy like Garza or younger guy with upside left like Hughes.

  18. #33
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    Wouldn't the SIERA table change for every season? If so, I am not sure how you would put multiple years or career numbers in the same table. In any case, his numbers aren't good whatever the classification.
    Yes it does change every year and it is an empirical distribution; lots like saying an ERA under 2 is amazing and and ERA over 6 is horrible. ERA distribution changes every year as well...

    The long answer about SIERA (by Matt Swartz who invented that measurement) starts here, goes through here and here and here and ends here, if you want some fun reading in a holiday weekend and interested in the differences between SIERA, ERA and xFIP to measure pitching performance.
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  19. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by big dog View Post
    Most people don't consider most people to be a legitimate reference source.
    WAR is about the most ridiculous stat ever invented. People who reference it are embarrassing themselves. Deduno is a legitimate back of the rotation starter. I dont need some ridiculous stat telling me he's not.

  20. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by Marta Shearing View Post
    WAR is about the most ridiculous stat ever invented. People who reference it are embarrassing themselves. Deduno is a legitimate back of the rotation starter. I dont need some ridiculous stat telling me he's not.
    You can't just call it ridiculous and the people that reference it "embarrassing" without being able to explain what it is and why you don't like it. So, what is WAR and why don't you like it? For instance, I don't like RBI or Batting Average with RISP as a stat. I know exactly what both of them are and exactly why I don't like them. RBI are a team stat and are mostly useless in terms of talent evaluation (rather a nod to opportunity). BAwRISP is not an innate skill and typically has too small of a sample size to be meaningful. See, I both understood and was able to communicate what I don't like about them.

    So now it's your turn! First, explain what WAR is and then explain what you don't like about it or what you find embarrassing or ridiculous. (And no, saying "well I can just SEE that Mike Trout is worse than Miguel Cabrera" doesn't count. Actual evidence please.)

  21. #36
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Deduno doesn't have top of the rotation type stuff, nor is he as bad as thrylos is trying to claim.

    He is a #5 guy at this point, no more, no less. He could be an above average #5 or he could pitch himself out of a job. It's that simple.

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  23. #37
    Senior Member All-Star crarko's Avatar
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    What I admire most about Deduno is the attitude he brings to the mound. This is clearly a man who loves to win and hates to lose. It would be nice to see the others pitch with this kind of fire.

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  25. #38
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    As a starter with the Twins his SIERA in 2012 was 5.04 and in 2013 4.13. Career average, including his RP stints is 4.47.

    Here is the SIERA table from here:

    Rating SIERA
    Excellent 2.90
    Great 3.25
    Above Average 3.75
    Average 3.90
    Below Average 4.20
    Poor 4.50
    Awful 5.00

    So his best season was up to below average, career average is at the poor level and the season before he was awful. If that does not scream replacement level, I don't know what does...

    FIP, tRA, xFIP all saying the same story.

    Not that he cannot be a 5th starter in the majors. That's replacement level in most places. My point is that Worley is likely at least at that level, has had success and has still to enter his prime, so he is better suited than Deduno for that spot.

    And, yes, he is fun to watch pitching. Nobody denies that. Juan Morillo was fun to watch too...
    Before his last 3 starts Deduno had a 3.18 ERA or Great rating as you put it. He can be a great 4th/5th starter who could win 12-15 games at the back of the rotation at 500k next year. The key is the health of his shoulder. He has the Stuff of an ace and the control of a AA pitcher. If he controls what he throws just enough he will be successful.

  26. #39
    Twins Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Alright... let me throw this out:

    Please give me a single objective and measurable criterium (or any piece of data you like, but it has to be objective and measurable) that Deduno is above replacement level in his prime (now and for the last 2 seasons)

    Thank you.
    I'm gonna do the opposite... I'm gonna point out a stat that sucks: BB/9

    That's it.

    The rest of his stats from 2009 pitching in Colorado Springs to 2013 pitching in Minnesota are decent. Quite a few them look even better than decent when you consider what the BB/9 did to them.

    Yet... In the end... It doesn't matter to me at all.

    Because... I don't care what kind of twisted combination of data is used to bring him down.

    I just don't understand how anyone could WATCH him pitch last year and say to themselves... Jeez... I can't wait until they get this guy off the roster.

    In his 13 starts before we started reading reports of suspected dead arm that turned into a shoulder issue. In those 13 starts... He gave the Twins a legit chance to win 10 of those 13 starts and we did indeed win 8 of them.

    Will he be shoulder healthy in 2014... I don't know... Will he regress... Maybe... Will he progress... Maybe... Will he stay the same... Maybe...

    But until his shoulder issues last year... He lowered his walk rate significantly and he was a dang fine pitcher.

    The Twins can sign Nolasco, Hughes, Kazmir and Garza and depending on Deduno's health..

    They would still be idiots to throw him away after his 2013 performance. Especially if they threw him away because they were not happy with his walk totals in 2012.
    A Skeleton walks into a bar and says... "Give me a beer... And a mop".

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  28. #40
    Twins Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Deduno doesn't have top of the rotation type stuff, nor is he as bad as thrylos is trying to claim.

    He is a #5 guy at this point, no more, no less. He could be an above average #5 or he could pitch himself out of a job. It's that simple.
    While I agree with the overall complete context of your statement. I do disagree with the first sentence.

    Stuff? Sam Deduno has Stuff coming out of his ears. Top of the rotation stuff without a doubt.

    What's not coming out of his ears... What remains in between his ears... is my only question about him and he seemed to have had made great progress on that last year.
    A Skeleton walks into a bar and says... "Give me a beer... And a mop".

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