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Thread: New Japanese Posting Rules?

  1. #21
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    eh, I don't know how much affect it has. Sucks that if we negotiate we would have to fly him to Minnesota to negotiate in the winter.

    Small side note: This is another reason Nishioka not working out kinda sucks. Had he worked out and been our starting SS or 2B right now we would have a nice guy to assist in getting other Japanese stars to sign here. Now it kinda looks like a black mark and the Japanese stars may blame his lack of success on the Twins, even if that's far from the truth.

  2. #22
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    This is GREAT for small and mid-market teams. Teams that post the $20 million can make a run at Tanaka. The Twins have the budget, do they have the cajones???

  3. #23
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    Since the posting fee didn't count against the luxury tax, it gave "rich" teams a big advantage anyway -- especially on highly desirable Japanese stars. In some ways this actually evens the playing field by making it closer to other free agent situations.

    While the Twins wanted to make headway in Japan with the Nishioka signing, I never saw the Japanese market (either as a "buyer" of talent or as a market for the team) as a particularly good fit. Seems like West Coast teams and big market teams like the Yankees and Red Sox always had a natural advantage.

    The Twins are better off focusing their $$$ on other international markets. I like that they are seemingly more active than some other teams in Australia, for example, and hope that they are in Europe as well. I know that talent and development is sparser in those areas than in Japan but maybe the Twins can take advantage of ties they've developed.

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  5. #24
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    I like the system... As a matter of fact it helps smaller revenue clubs because unlike the old system where the bulk of the money went to the posting fee and did not count towards the luxury tax, the bulk of money will go to player salary and will count towards the luxury tax. Also, the player, instead of the club and the Japanese League, will be getting the money.
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  6. #25
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    I still hope the twins pony up the cash to negotiate with tanaka. it wont cost a draft pick and who know what unproved talent might go for? i dont see the twins as a landing spot for him necessarily but it costs them nothing to post the maximum bid to negotiate...unless of course they sign him.

  7. #26
    Senior Member Double-A zenser's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    I like the system... As a matter of fact it helps smaller revenue clubs because unlike the old system where the bulk of the money went to the posting fee and did not count towards the luxury tax, the bulk of money will go to player salary and will count towards the luxury tax. Also, the player, instead of the club and the Japanese League, will be getting the money.
    I like the premise behind the system too. I just wish they would have incorporated the ability to negotiate based on the reverse winning percentage that had been discussed. I would have guessed Houston or the Cubs to throw enough money at him to sign him. That would have been as close to a "draft" as you are going to get with the Japanese players.

  8. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by zenser View Post
    I like the premise behind the system too. I just wish they would have incorporated the ability to negotiate based on the reverse winning percentage that had been discussed. I would have guessed Houston or the Cubs to throw enough money at him to sign him. That would have been as close to a "draft" as you are going to get with the Japanese players.
    I would have like them do something where it allows the first 5 teams (starting from lowest winning percentage) that were willing to pay the $20 million posting fee, negotiate with Tanaka. From there, he could choose between 5 teams. I think this still very much benefits the richest teams but, at least it's a step in the right direction. They REALLY need to get an international draft though. Until that is done, the league will always be top heavy. For a team like the Rangers to go get a guy like Yu Darvish because they can afford him or a team like the Dodgers to get Puig for the same reason, it's an unfair advantage. But, whatever...what do I know.

  9. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Siehbiscuit View Post
    This is GREAT for small and mid-market teams. Teams that post the $20 million can make a run at Tanaka. The Twins have the budget, do they have the cajones???
    I disagree. 20 million is a low enough figure that essentially every team can offer that for the posting fee, which in turn allows the player to negotiate with any team that matched that offer. This just turns him into a typical FA which is most likely to go to NYY, LA, etc like any of the other worthwhile FA.

    I think it actually hurts small market teams, who might have been able to sneak through a surprise bid every now and again in the old system.

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  11. #29
    Senior Member Double-A Wookiee of the Year's Avatar
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    I'm basically exactly in agreement with thrylos--compared to the old system, this system seems worse for Japanese teams, better for Japanese players, and better for small-market teams (buy ensuring more of the overall value of a deal is subject to the luxury tax). And I generally like those changes. While I want to see NPB teams make some money off their players, the bidding war shouldn't happen in the value they extract from the deal, but in the value the player extracts.

    Quote Originally Posted by notoriousgod71 View Post
    I disagree. 20 million is a low enough figure that essentially every team can offer that for the posting fee, which in turn allows the player to negotiate with any team that matched that offer. This just turns him into a typical FA which is most likely to go to NYY, LA, etc like any of the other worthwhile FA.

    I think it actually hurts small market teams, who might have been able to sneak through a surprise bid every now and again in the old system.
    I just don't see how this can be true. Before, the team mostly likely to place the winning posting bid was NYY, LA, etc... like any of the other worthwhile FA. Now, with the bulk of the money subject to the luxury tax, teams like the NYY that are trying to stay under the cap are hurt. And even if they're not trying to stay under the cap, the money is redirected toward smaller-market teams through the cap.

    I don't know why the math of Posting Fee + Contract would equal a larger amount than before. In fact, it has the potential to equal less than before because the rich bidders now have more of their total subject to the luxury tax, which makes each dollar cost more.

    Quote Originally Posted by zenser View Post
    I like the premise behind the system too. I just wish they would have incorporated the ability to negotiate based on the reverse winning percentage that had been discussed. I would have guessed Houston or the Cubs to throw enough money at him to sign him. That would have been as close to a "draft" as you are going to get with the Japanese players.
    I dunno... At some point, you're creating too much of an incentive for losing.

  12. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    As a labor over management guy, I generally agree with you (esp with the idea of putting the players in some sort of draft). But this seemed to be an area where the Twins could have made relatively cheap upgrades by simply out scouting the competition. Now, that ability has been lessened. (And I know the Twins haven't done a great job scouting in NPB yet).
    It's worth thinking about, but I'm not sure it does hurt scouting advantages... Anybody warranting a $20M posting fee is likely on every team's radar, anyway. And as far as I can tell, the landscape for placing posting fees under $20M is unchanged.

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  14. #31
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    If you gave teams the right to negotiate with the player in reverse order, how would that work?

    Is the player captive to a low offer from one team? Does the player just have to say "no" and move up to the next lowest team?

    What disincentive is there for a team to place a bid just to block other teams? I know that was the same problem in the old system but at least there they had to risk that the player would take a deal and their posting fee would be gone -- although there's some risk here, it is reduced.

    Isn't the new premise something like: the player has served their minor league/team control years in the Japanese system and therefore is basically a free agent when coming to the U.S.?

    I could understand a system where only the five teams with the lowest winning percentage & fee posting could negotiate with the player (essentially a modified/limited free agent scenario). I don't think that the "big boys" would go for that but it would create a bit of leverage for the player. BUT, that system would not be good for teams who tend to be "in the middle" rather than tanking. It would have been a horror for the Twins of 2002-2010.

  15. #32
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wookiee of the Year View Post
    It's worth thinking about, but I'm not sure it does hurt scouting advantages... Anybody warranting a $20M posting fee is likely on every team's radar, anyway. And as far as I can tell, the landscape for placing posting fees under $20M is unchanged.
    That appears to be the case. In other words if you bid 18m and someone else bids 20m you are SOL.

  16. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Siehbiscuit View Post
    This is GREAT for small and mid-market teams. Teams that post the $20 million can make a run at Tanaka. The Twins have the budget, do they have the cajones???
    To me it sounds just the oppisite , the big market teams have more money , (maybe less under the soft payroll cap, but more money) I do think the Twins could or should bid on Tanaka, but take a slightly different approach, offer him a contract of 2+1 years , explain to him that by coming to Minnesota he will get a chance to establish himself in the Majors and then will be a free agent at the age of 28 with a proven track record , while other teams are trying to lock him up for 5-7 years we should go the other direction.To me that is are only chance, and if he is good , we can always try and extend him .

  17. #34
    As a Twins fan, I'm almost always in favor of measures that help even the playing field between us and bigger markets, but I actually like this system. The max posting bid is reasonable and won't prevent small market teams from at least throwing their hat into the ring, but the player can still have some freedom to negotiate in his best interest. We're still at a disadvantage but it could be a lot worse.
    Once held a .900 OBP in Church League Softball.

  18. #35
    I think the purpose of the Japanese posting rules are being overlooked by some of the comments I have read. The Japanese league is a PROFESSIONAL baseball league. MLB has to treat it as such. While it can be argued that MLB is a step higher than the Japanese league, they have to treat each other as if they are on equal terms. The "posting fee" is a payment MLB has negotiated with the Japanese league to "steal" players that are under team control. The payment goes to the team IF the player signs an MLB contract. It is to compensate the Japanese team for taking their player. A player that is still under their control.

    Under the old system, only the highest blind posting bid won the right to negotiate and sign said player. Under the capped new system, any team that ties the high bid can negotiate and sign the player. While the player is not a "true free agent" (his rights still belong to the Japanese team during negotiations) it allows more MLB teams to participate. It is entirely possible for ALL 30 MLB teams to submit a winning bid and be able to negotiate with the player. If no MLB team who won the posting bid is able to sign the player, he returns to his Japanese team just like under the old rules.

    The thought of penalizing the signing team a draft pick or linking the available bidders to their draft order is wrong in this case. The Japanese player is being given MLB free agent rights through this deal. He is not being given a draft status or rights equivalent to minor leaguers. His time in the Japanese league satisfies his time under team control. He is a LIMITED free agent under these rules, able to sign with any team who submits a winning bid.

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  20. #36
    Whats interesting is that according to the evil 4 letter network website Tanaka's team may choose not to post Tanaka now if they only can get $20 million.

    If that comes to fruition it would seem to me that would make the Twins early moves to get Nalasco and Hughes to be even more important. Remove Tanaka and all of a sudden that removes one of the top tier pitching talents making the remainder that much more important.

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  22. #37
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    The question I find myself asking is 'Why shouldn't Tanaka be a FA?'

    He has had a successful career and imo it would be silly to just allow the worst teams to sign the best Asian/Cuban FA's that have had long pro careers in their own countries. yes, it's likely that the best Asians will sign with big market teams but that's FA.

  23. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by darin617 View Post
    I thought the Twins paid a posting on Nishi and his deal was not for 6 years.
    Length of contract is whatever the teamand player wants. Separate issue from length of team control. The player to play MLB only hads the option of that club or Japan under the terms of the old agreement. IIRC the player had to be over 30 to be a free agent from the Japanese baseball team.

  24. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by abnormal_1 View Post
    Whats interesting is that according to the evil 4 letter network website Tanaka's team may choose not to post Tanaka now if they only can get $20 million.
    That would be really interesting, and might have a huge impact on Japanese baseball in another way. Right now there is massive pressure on young kids in Japan to continue the tradition of starting their professional career in Japan. A few have tossed out the notion of heading to America right away, but then bowed to the national pressure to play in Japan. If Japanese teams now start refusing to post players because they won't "get enough money" for them, it may finally cause those extremely talented youngsters to finally forgo the Japanese leagues completely. Will be interesting to watch from the outside.

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  26. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by abnormal_1 View Post
    Whats interesting is that according to the evil 4 letter network website Tanaka's team may choose not to post Tanaka now if they only can get $20 million.

    If that comes to fruition it would seem to me that would make the Twins early moves to get Nalasco and Hughes to be even more important. Remove Tanaka and all of a sudden that removes one of the top tier pitching talents making the remainder that much more important.
    The article is here: http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/10...-golden-eagles

    This is big news if Rakutan decides the posting fee isn't enough. And, after seeing Hokkaido Nippon get almost $52 million for Darvish 2 years ago, it's not hard to understand why. (I don't think Tanaka is worth the Darvish fee but given how much extra revenue is around mlb these days, Rakutan had to be drooling over the possibilities.)

    From this story: http://www.japantimes.co.jp/sports/2.../#.UqHm9pV3uhx

    it looks like Tanaka signed a 3-year contract with Rakutan in December 2012 so they have him under team control through 2015. They could easily wait until next off-season to see if the rules change. Even if the rules don't change, they get their pitcher for another year and don't take much risk that they wouldn't get the $20m next year.

    The cap on posting fees could definitely affect how early teams are willing to post star players.
    Last edited by JB_Iowa; 12-06-2013 at 09:07 AM.

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