Page 2 of 6 FirstFirst 1234 ... LastLast
Results 21 to 40 of 113

Thread: Never Happening, But...

  1. #21
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    206
    Like
    90
    Liked 87 Times in 49 Posts
    Blog Entries
    4
    Add me to the list on no.

    To repeat what has already been stated, that one "ace" SP is not going to put us over the top immediately when several really high pieces to the puzzle have yet to arrive. And while many will be soon, or getting their feet wet, you have to be worried about decking performance as they begin to rise, and having such a huge financial commitment to that one player, Price in this case.

    And as Thrylos stated earlier, over the next 5 or 6 seasons, not so sure Meyer won't prove to be as good or better, and much more cost effective.

    Nolasco, Hughes, Gibsn and Meyer and TBD has me optimistic and down right tickled from the possibilities. Yes, we still need a LHSP in that group somewhere, whether from the system, FA or trade. Why Anderson scares me, but also thrills me with potential if over the injury hump.

  2. #22
    Senior Member Double-A
    Posts
    118
    Like
    19
    Liked 10 Times in 8 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    So back to David price..... We are not getting Price without one of our top prospects. Period. The real question is are you willing to give up one of Buxton, Sano, or Meyer and 2-3 more prospects?
    I was actually thinking about starting a post titled 'Buxton for Price'. Forget adding other prospects, would you trade Buxton for Price straight-up? Even if the Twins could sign him to 4 more years?

    Personally I wouldn’t, Will Myers will haunt KC for the next 15 years, but some of the people on this board are sooooo desperate for a winning Twins team that I’m curious what they would say about ‘Buxton for Price?’

  3. #23
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    206
    Like
    90
    Liked 87 Times in 49 Posts
    Blog Entries
    4
    Nooo!

  4. #24
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    2,086
    Like
    15
    Liked 89 Times in 55 Posts
    People are way too optimistic about Meyer if they think he IS going to match Price for a 6 yr period. With an extension in place I would have no problem trading Meyer and Rosario for Price. Meyer might be great but his injury history and control issues could result in him being one of many pitching prospects that just don't make it in the MLB.

    It's funny but some people were upset because span was traded for a MiLB'er a couple of years away and wanted more immediate help. It would be extraordinarily awesome to flip Meyer a year later for a no doubt ace (very rare in the MLB).

    Sano or Buxton are a little bit of a different story. I would hang on to these hitters because they are hitters and less likely to completely flop like a pitching prospect.

  5. #25
    Senior Member Double-A
    Posts
    132
    Like
    0
    Liked 14 Times in 5 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    People are way too optimistic about Meyer if they think he IS going to match Price for a 6 yr period. With an extension in place I would have no problem trading Meyer and Rosario for Price. Meyer might be great but his injury history and control issues could result in him being one of many pitching prospects that just don't make it in the MLB.

    It's funny but some people were upset because span was traded for a MiLB'er a couple of years away and wanted more immediate help. It would be extraordinarily awesome to flip Meyer a year later for a no doubt ace (very rare in the MLB).

    Sano or Buxton are a little bit of a different story. I would hang on to these hitters because they are hitters and less likely to completely flop like a pitching prospect.
    Thank you. My point originally is that Price is a legitimate, true, #1 ACE. Period. He's 28 going into next season and has his peak 5-year span coming up. Clearly, all would depend on getting him signed to an extension that the club could live with (probably the most unlikely part of this scenario.) But I'd give up Meyer & 2-3 others in a heartbeat if it could happen.

  6. #26
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    224
    Like
    3
    Liked 33 Times in 21 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    It's not going to happen without giving up 1 of Buxton, Meyer, or Sano. They just arent close enough to contend to justify it.

    Honestly I think the Rays should trade Price straight up to the Orioles for Chris Davis. Orioles need a ace, Rays need a power hitter. Both players have 2 years control left & will get them an 1st round comp pick atleast if not resigned.

    I know its the rays strategy to hoard prospects & picks but they can win it all with more offense & already have issues with having almost too many prospects.

  7. #27
    Member Single-A
    Posts
    63
    Like
    1
    Liked 4 Times in 3 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by Trevor0333 View Post
    Honestly I think the Rays should trade Price straight up to the Orioles for Chris Davis. Orioles need a ace, Rays need a power hitter. Both players have 2 years control left & will get them an 1st round comp pick atleast if not resigned.

    I know its the rays strategy to hoard prospects & picks but they can win it all with more offense & already have issues with having almost too many prospects.
    Davis and...?

  8. #28
    Junior Member Rookie
    Posts
    14
    Like
    1
    Liked 1 Time in 1 Post
    Blog Entries
    1
    Some of the best "building block" trades of the past were some of our established players for prospects. The early 1980's trades of Roy Smalley and Butch Wynegar to the Yankees helped build our 1987 team. The 1999 trade of Eric Milton and the 2003 trade of AJ Pierzynski helped build our division winning teams of the 2000's. Can anybody name a trade of high level Twin Prospects that ever helped us win anything. You can argue the 1989 trade of Frank Viola for Tapani, Aguilera, West, Drummond won the 1991 WS for us. So trading high-level prospects for D Price would go more for winning the WS for TB than the Twins. Just look how the Vikings built the Cowboy dynasty of the 1990's in the Herschel Walker trade. No way do I trade for Price. Period.

  9. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    And at that point, what have you done? You've gone and pulled a Dayton Moore... Given up some top pieces of your farm to field a second place (or in Moore's case, third place) team.
    I totally agree with this sentiment. You don't make a blockbuster deal unless you think it is the piece that takes you to the promised land. (especially for a team like the Twins that can't throw money around like the Yanks and Dodgers to make up for a dearth of cheap talent coming up from the minors.)

    Also, there is no scenario where the Twins get Price without at least one of Sano, Buxton or Meyer. I don't think a deal of Stewart, Rosario, Berrios and Thorpe would get it done.

    Honestly, the Twins are still in a position where I would rather they trade for more high ceiling minor league pitchers than for an established ace like price.

  10. #30
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    289
    Like
    4
    Liked 44 Times in 30 Posts
    Blog Entries
    5
    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    People are way too optimistic about Meyer if they think he IS going to match Price for a 6 yr period. With an extension in place I would have no problem trading Meyer and Rosario for Price. .
    When comparing Price to Meyer over the next six years, you can't just use performance. Price will make about $30 million in the next two years and another $90-100 million in the following four, if signed to an extension. Meyer will make the league minimum for three years, followed by three arbitration years. There's quite a bit of surplus value there, if Meyer is anywhere close to his projection.

    As far as the trade itself, the Twins are too low on the win curve for it to make sense. We need some of those prospects to fill out the roster, before we go for this type of move.

  11. #31
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    2,086
    Like
    15
    Liked 89 Times in 55 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by JP3700 View Post
    When comparing Price to Meyer over the next six years, you can't just use performance. Price will make about $30 million in the next two years and another $90-100 million in the following four, if signed to an extension. Meyer will make the league minimum for three years, followed by three arbitration years. There's quite a bit of surplus value there, if Meyer is anywhere close to his projection.

    As far as the trade itself, the Twins are too low on the win curve for it to make sense. We need some of those prospects to fill out the roster, before we go for this type of move.
    Please go back and read Thrylos's statement. He simply said that he thought Meyer would outperform Price. That is way too optimistic of Meyer. I really like Meyer (really, really like him) but he's not even a top 10 pitching prospect right now. People need to stop projecting him as a can't miss ace. Can't miss aces frequently miss also.

    The other thing is that real aces simply don't hit FA that often. You can spend tons of money on several Garza, Bailey, Ervin Santana, C.J. Wilson or Nolasco types but they aren't true aces. Every once in awhile a Greinke comes along and he is really good but he also signed for huge money.

  12. #32
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    289
    Like
    4
    Liked 44 Times in 30 Posts
    Blog Entries
    5
    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    Please go back and read Thrylos's statement. He simply said that he thought Meyer would outperform Price. That is way too optimistic of Meyer. I really like Meyer (really, really like him) but he's not even a top 10 pitching prospect right now. People need to stop projecting him as a can't miss ace. Can't miss aces frequently miss also.

    The other thing is that real aces simply don't hit FA that often. You can spend tons of money on several Garza, Bailey, Ervin Santana, C.J. Wilson or Nolasco types but they aren't true aces. Every once in awhile a Greinke comes along and he is really good but he also signed for huge money.
    I agree that his statement was way too optimistic. However, I do think Meyer is a good bet to provide more actual value than Price, over the next six years.

  13. This user likes JP3700's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    Joe A. Preusser (12-08-2013)

  14. #33
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Joe A. Preusser's Avatar
    Posts
    648
    Like
    83
    Liked 114 Times in 69 Posts
    I think there are very few GMs in baseball that, right now, wouldn't prefer Meyer over Price for the next 6-7 years at their relative prices. Even if Price averages out to be a #1 and Meyer averages out to be a strong #3, the value is skewed heavily towards Alex (15-25M difference!)

    The exceptions would be the teams that spend money like water due to sick revenue sources that the Twins just don't have and can thus afford the better pitcher at a lower value.

  15. #34
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
    Posts
    4,093
    Like
    99
    Liked 343 Times in 196 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by JP3700 View Post
    I agree that his statement was way too optimistic. However, I do think Meyer is a good bet to provide more actual value than Price, over the next six years.
    A "good bet"? Meyer hasn't thrown a pitch in the majors yet and Price is a Cy Young winner. No, that isn't a good bet no matter what price tag Price comes with.

    That doesn't mean you go out and make that deal, but cmon.

  16. This user likes TheLeviathan's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    jokin (12-08-2013)

  17. #35
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
    Posts
    4,093
    Like
    99
    Liked 343 Times in 196 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Joe A. Preusser View Post
    I think there are very few GMs in baseball that, right now, wouldn't prefer Meyer over Price for the next 6-7 years at their relative prices. Even if Price averages out to be a #1 and Meyer averages out to be a strong #3, the value is skewed heavily towards Alex (15-25M difference!)

    The exceptions would be the teams that spend money like water due to sick revenue sources that the Twins just don't have and can thus afford the better pitcher at a lower value.
    I think every sane GM on the planet with the ability to pay the price would gladly pay that difference to have an ace over a hopeful.

    The price tag, by its very nature, represents the value of a talented performer like Price. This conversation has descended into some really bizarre notions of value.

  18. This user likes TheLeviathan's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    jokin (12-08-2013)

  19. #36
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    2,086
    Like
    15
    Liked 89 Times in 55 Posts
    I hope Meyer earning 500K is a better value than nearly every elite pitcher. If he isn't then he is a massive failure. But at some point the money has to be spent. It's much better to have spent that 20+M on one elite player than 2 Nolasco's.

    Of course I don't think Tampa would accept a trade for Meyer/Rosario and there is no chance that the Twins would propose something like this.

  20. #37
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
    Posts
    4,093
    Like
    99
    Liked 343 Times in 196 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    I hope Meyer earning 500K is a better value than nearly every elite pitcher. If he isn't then he is a massive failure. But at some point the money has to be spent. It's much better to have spent that 20+M on one elite player than 2 Nolasco's.

    Of course I don't think Tampa would accept a trade for Meyer/Rosario and there is no chance that the Twins would propose something like this.
    Right, but as you pointed out - Meyer isn't a super elite SP prospect and he's never thrown a pitch in the majors. He's still got a significant chance of busting. So to suggest Meyer might be as "valuable" is putting the cart way before the horse.

    Afterall, if that sort of valuation was true, teams would flip their aces in a 1 for 1 deal for prospects all the time.

  21. #38
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    289
    Like
    4
    Liked 44 Times in 30 Posts
    Blog Entries
    5
    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    A "good bet"? Meyer hasn't thrown a pitch in the majors yet and Price is a Cy Young winner. No, that isn't a good bet no matter what price tag Price comes with.

    That doesn't mean you go out and make that deal, but cmon.
    Price has been worth between +4 to +4.5 wins over the last three years. Depending on if you use RA9 or FIP. Let's just assume he's going to be worth +4.5 WAR over the next two years to make it easy. At $6 million a win, he's going to be worth $54M in those two years. He's going to cost about $30M over that two year span. That's a healthy $24M surplus.

    However, then you consider the next four years. Considering Greinke got an AAV of 24.5M, Price's extension has to start at $25M. To make it easy, let's just say his AAV is $25M. Within those four years, he has to continue pitching at the same level, just for him to be worth it. Then you take into account regression and injury. It's a good bet that he would net a negative value over those four years.

    For argument's sake though, let's just say he's worth every penny over those four years. So, over the six years, Price has been worth +$24M in surplus value. When you consider what Meyer will make over those six years, that's why Meyer is a good bet to be worth more than +$24M over that same time frame.

    A good bet doesn't mean it's 100%, locked in. It means I'd put the odds over 50% that it would happen. Meyer isn't a kid in rookie ball. He's shown to be dominant in AA, and the AFL. Obviously there is no guarantee. But, there is no guarantee with Price, or any other player. Price had a triceps injury, and a drop in velocity in 2013.

    I understand that the value is relative though. Price's more than likely 4.5 WAR has much more value than Meyer's range of value to a contending team. But, to the Twins, Meyer makes more sense. I think you'd agree by your final statement.

    All this being said, I still would trade Meyer for Price one for one. Only because I'd flip Price for more, to a contending team. It's all about value to me.

  22. #39
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    461
    Like
    137
    Liked 53 Times in 40 Posts
    Blog Entries
    13
    Price was a Cy Young winner...but will he ever approach that again? To me, when you say 'trading for a CY winner' it would have to mean he's likely to win another. Is he?

    On Meyer...
    I am becoming more and more of a believer for Meyer after watching much of the AFL. The AFL All-Star game, 2 sneak peak games by MLB Network, and scouts' takes. The thing with Meyer, the only thing stopping him from dominating, seems to be himself. He has that kind of stuff. 96-100 MPH fastball into the 7th inning? Big sweeping 88-90 MPH slider. A change/curve that's 'average'...if he gets either to a 'above average' to 'plus'...he's looking at 240 K's and ERAs under 3.30. I think his floor is #3/#4 starter. He's got first division starter (Ace) ceiling.

    Price...may or may not be losing velocity...he was injured last year - so not sure if it'll come back or not, but his pitches were 2-4 MPH lower last year vs 2012 and previous.
    http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.as...ion=P&pitch=FA

    I'm not sure he would go 'bad' that quick though. I saw him pitch two games for the Rays last year where he was barely hitting 91MPH (instead of 96) on his fastball. He still had great command...had some help on a few pitches (some framing, some umpire favor).

    But the salary...If Cano can get 10 yr 243 mil...what does Price want/get?

    Would seem the Twins could afford 2 other middle-to-upper tier FA's at whatever price Price wants and Meyer.

    If we were a team like the Orioles...or a fringe team, it might be something to be seriously considered.

    On Buxton...Sano....
    I just don't see many 19 year old's doing what they each did in A/A+ Ball respectively, who didn't go on to be Stars. Price is an Ace...so he's "first division starter"...a Star...top 10/15 at this position. That's nothing to take lightly. With Davis, is this Barry Zito part two though? What was Zito's ailment when the A's traded him? Only salary considerations? He was 28...had a Cy Young. He didn't have a winning season until he was 34. That's 6 years later. But he was better in his last year (4.4 WAR, 116 ERA+) than Price (2.8 WAR, 114 ERA+).

    The value the Rays will want...
    Wil Myers was the #4 prospect in the game...Montgomery was #31 (2012)...Odorizzo was #43...the Rays got that (3 top 50 Prospects) for Shields and a 5th/6th starter (Davis).. So they're likely coming off a high expectation, even though they absolutely fleeced the Royals. Buxton is better than Myers. Sano is better than Myers. Price is better than Shields.

    If I didn't think Buxton or Sano were going to be monsters...I'd sell on the high prospect rating. But I do think they'll be monsters.

    Did anyone have any doubt Joe Mauer was going to be a HOF level player? Consensus #1 overall prospect according to every publication (mid 2013 or later rated). Buxton is that guy. And then, Sano, well, I haven't seen Sano ranked lower than #6. (Baseball America, Prospectus, Keith Law, MLB.com, John Sickels, Prospect Digest, etc).

    Anyone feel Price will be HOF level any more than two seasons (+5 WAR, e.g. his 2010 and 2012) going forward, much less the rest of his career (50 WAR, he's at 18.6 right now), from here on out?
    Last edited by twinsfan34; 12-08-2013 at 02:59 PM.

  23. #40
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
    Posts
    4,093
    Like
    99
    Liked 343 Times in 196 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by JP3700 View Post
    A good bet doesn't mean it's 100%, locked in. It means I'd put the odds over 50% that it would happen.
    Well there is the problem. If just over 50% is a "good" bet in your eyes, we have different ideas of what constitutes a "good bet".

    All this being said, I still would trade Meyer for Price one for one. Only because I'd flip Price for more, to a contending team. It's all about value to me.
    Of course you would. And if Price were a Twin and the Rays came at us with only Alex Meyer - you'd scoff (rightly) at the idea. And the reason is because Price is far more valuable because he's established he can be a dominant starter in the majors. Meyer has only showed promise that he might.

    Right now it doesn't make sense to trade for Price because it won't cost only Meyer and the Twins are stingy about contract extensions. The question isn't "who is more valuable?" (In a one to one comparison, it's Price and it's laughable to suggest otherwise), it's "why now?" And the answer is that there is no good reason to do it now - not with those factors listed above. So you wait and hope Meyer becomes your own version of Price.

    And, if the gods be good to us Twins fans and it happens, you never seriously consider the idea that a guy who hasn't pitched over AA yet could be more valuable than your Cy Young winner.
    Last edited by TheLeviathan; 12-08-2013 at 02:55 PM.

Page 2 of 6 FirstFirst 1234 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
©2014 TwinsCentric, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Interested in advertising with Twins Daily? Click here.