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Thread: Twins & SS Stephen Drew?

  1. #81
    Quote Originally Posted by Major Leauge Ready View Post
    I was on the fence with my weight equally distributed until I read this post. I also share DieHardTwinsFan’s opinion on the pick. Yes, we have not landed a great players with similar picks but you can’t just look at our history. There have been many good players drafted in similar positions including Taijuan Walker. He was the 43rd pick.

    There are a lot of goods points on this thread in favor and against. I had to think it over for awhile but for me it comes down to objectives. Drew is definitely an upgrade at the moment. He would help getting us back to around 500 but he is not part of the next contender. We would be selling low. Even if we keep Florimon, we prohibit the growth that could provide much greater value. The draft pick also has the potential to be very valuable to future contention. The odds on both are pretty long but given the best case scenario for the alternative is respectability, I think I like the idea of retaining this potential.

    My vote is wait a year and use the $12M we would have spent on Drew + another 10-12M for a true front of the rotation starter.

    Perhaps I'm being a blind opitmism on the Twins. But if you sign Drew to a three year deal (2014,2015,2016). When you consider that by Opening Day 2015 the following players will be on the roster (Buxton, Sano, Meyer, and Rosario). This says nothing about potential development from Gibson, Arcia, and Hicks. I'm not even mentioning that the Tigers are probably more likely to decline rather then ascend by 2015. Why should we dismiss that Drew on a three year deal could possibly see us in contention with breaks during two of those years.

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  3. #82
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    Drew isn't a great defender or hitter, he is fairly good at both & 2 way SS are not easy to come by. How much of his power translates to Target Field is a legitimate concern.

    Giving up a 2nd is definitely something to give pause to. Your giving up a high 2nd for 3 years of a starting SS. 3/27 is a pretty fair contract but I'm guessing it will take more like 3/34. I would surely not go 4 years though.

    If the choice was Garza or Drew I'd lean Garza. If there's a chance they land both this is a team ready to contend with the Tigers who are due to drop off IMO. Losing Fister will be under rated.
    Last edited by Trevor0333; 12-11-2013 at 02:47 PM.

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  5. #83
    I'd prefer to stash the money this year and go get Hardy next offseason.

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  7. #84
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    A lot of great thought and insight here. This is my final take on what has been said.

    I agree that it is a close decision on whether or not to sign Drew. The reasons are because it will cost a draft pick, the money attached to it and also because the Twins window may not start for two to three years. My issue is with the thought that Drew isn't a significant upgrade and that he's not worth the money. If the Twins were a 85-90 win team, this decision would be a slam dunk.

    On the Florimon to Iglesias comp. It is a fair comp due to the fact that they are both light hitting defensive specialists. The difference is that Iglesias understands that he's a light hitting shortstop. Iglesias puts the ball in play and gets on base. He led the AL with 35 infield hits.

    My issue with Florimon is his approach at the plate. He's a guy who has 40 power and 60 speed who hits like he has 60 power and 40 speed. What's even more frustrating is that he doesn't change his approach. It could be 0-2 and he's still swinging for the fences. I like home runs as much as the next guy, but I'll trade a few home runs for some on base %.

    A .278 OBP just doesn't cut it. And when you're striking out 25% of the time, you leave yourself little room for improvement. Can he improve? Sure. But at this stage of his career I don't think it's likely.

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  9. #85
    Super Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JP3700 View Post

    On the Florimon to Iglesias comp. It is a fair comp due to the fact that they are both light hitting defensive specialists. The difference is that Iglesias understands that he's a light hitting shortstop. Iglesias puts the ball in play and gets on base. He led the AL with 35 infield hits.

    My issue with Florimon is his approach at the plate. He's a guy who has 40 power and 60 speed who hits like he has 60 power and 40 speed. What's even more frustrating is that he doesn't change his approach. It could be 0-2 and he's still swinging for the fences. I like home runs as much as the next guy, but I'll trade a few home runs for some on base %.

    A .278 OBP just doesn't cut it. And when you're striking out 25% of the time, you leave yourself little room for improvement. Can he improve? Sure. But at this stage of his career I don't think it's likely.
    I have a baseball theory that I stubbornly cling to.

    Basically... I believe that if you have the ability to hit a ball out of the park (Florimon does). And if you have the ability to catch up to 98 MPH Fastball (Florimon can).

    Then you have the ability to do almost anything with the bat... If you can homer... You can triple in the gap... You can double and of course you can single... You just got to stop chasing crap.

    It's all between the ears. These guys have refined their swings to easy muscle memory by now. They've hit off the tee thousands of times... They've hit in the cages... They have the finest swing coaches in the world working with them... They've faced batting practice.... They've faced live pitching.

    Its all up to them... Are they gonna chase the pitch the pitcher wants them to chase or are they gonna go up to the plate with a game plan and execute?

    The light bulb never turns on with some and the light bulb turns on after a while with others and some hit the big leagues fully lit.

    Florimon... Is hurting himself at the plate with poor discipline but some youngsters think they have to hit a 5 run homer to stay in the bigs or get to the bigs and they press. The walk isn't sexy and they are afraid of the two strike count.

    They can get better with age and often do.
    "9. Lipstick"

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  11. #86
    Super Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Riverbrian View Post
    I have a baseball theory that I stubbornly cling to.

    Basically... I believe that if you have the ability to hit a ball out of the park (Florimon does). And if you have the ability to catch up to 98 MPH Fastball (Florimon can).

    Then you have the ability to do almost anything with the bat... If you can homer... You can triple in the gap... You can double and of course you can single... You just got to stop chasing crap.

    It's all between the ears. These guys have refined their swings to easy muscle memory by now. They've hit off the tee thousands of times... They've hit in the cages... They have the finest swing coaches in the world working with them... They've faced batting practice.... They've faced live pitching.

    Its all up to them... Are they gonna chase the pitch the pitcher wants them to chase or are they gonna go up to the plate with a game plan and execute?

    The light bulb never turns on with some and the light bulb turns on after a while with others and some hit the big leagues fully lit.

    Florimon... Is hurting himself at the plate with poor discipline but some youngsters think they have to hit a 5 run homer to stay in the bigs or get to the bigs and they press. The walk isn't sexy and they are afraid of the two strike count.

    They can get better with age and often do.
    its possible, but 27 yr olds with 2900 minor league PAs who haven't OPSd above .700 since A ball don't get much better very often.
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

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  13. #87
    Which would you rather bet on? Signing Drew to play SS for about 3 years (within budget and projected relevancy return) with lower, but not poor grades on defense but significant offensive upgrades.

    Or bet on any catcher we sign to upgrade our defense and potentially offensive compared to Pinto?

    Both positions are needs for the Twins next year and beyond. SS will cost more but they should. Florimon has surprised us but he is not the future. We finally showed we have brought up no top flight pitching, why can't we also admit SS isn't our gig as well? Twins will have to pay.

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  15. #88
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    I think the Twins need to decide if A.Diaz is good enough to play in the majors as a 2 way player, if so save the draft pick, and save the 10 million from Pelfrey and go all in on Diaz for 6-7 years, he will be coming up with the rest of the kids

  16. #89
    Super Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    its possible, but 27 yr olds with 2900 minor league PAs who haven't OPSd above .700 since A ball don't get much better very often.
    True.. I'm certainly not betting on it and I'm not endorsing Florimon long term until he snows he can.

    But a lot of SS's don't OPS that high because teams look glove first at the position. If they can hit and need work with the glove... They become 3B, 2B or OF.

    Tulo's are pretty rare. SS's who hit are expensive... It's why Peralta got paid and It's why Drew is going to cost a ton of money for pretty average stats and frequent health concerns. It's why... Even Defensive studs like Iglasias is worth Peavy... It's why youngsters who are not Top 20 prospects like Gregarious is worth Shin Soo Choo and Bauer... It's why Atlanta wouldn't part with Simmons for Upton or the Rangers wouldn't part with Andrus or Profar for Upton.

    When you look at the prices paid for a SS. It makes me pause pretty hard when you consider that Drew was given away. Something wasn't right at the time.

    Florimon's glove is pretty special. I'm fine with him for another year. He has 600 AB's... If the light bulb goes off and just a little hitting gets combined with that glove and arm. Just hitting .250 and .680 OPS would increase his value to scary territory.

    If the Twins sign Drew... I'll be ok with that as well.

    I more concerned with the offense that is coming back... Actually playing to expectation.

    If Drew can inspire the squad and the inspired squad improves as a unit... he will be worth every penny. If he goes into the tank with the rest of the team. It will be a bad 14 million a year contract.
    Last edited by Riverbrian; 12-11-2013 at 06:52 PM.
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  18. #90
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    I think one thing needs to be made clear. Florimon shouldn't have a starting job and will be lucky to post an OPS >.600. I also think his popular comp (Iglesias) sees his numbers tumble this year.

    I really don't have a problem with Drew since the years and dollar amounts are right for the Twins. Drew comes with some risks and isn't a great player but that's why he will sign a reasonable deal. The Twins also completely lack in SS options.

    I'm surprised Brock is in favor of this considering his dislike of another former Red Sox lefthanded FA that would play half of his games at Target Field.

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  20. #91
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Like I said in another post, I'm not a huge fan of Drew.

    But he's the best SS on the market and the Twins literally have nobody else who projects to be above average in the next half decade.

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  22. #92
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    I wasn't as high on a potential Drew signing until I realized...

    For the 2014 season
    Danny Santana - 23 years old (AA)
    Niko Goodrum - 22 years old (A+)
    Jorge Polanco - 21 years old (A)

    With both Santana & Polanco on the 40 man I had thought they were a little older than they actually are.

    If Drew is signed to a 3 year deal, he will not exactly be blocking any legitimate SS prospects. If Santana blows up you can easily move a SS like Drew with 1 year & 12mill on his cotnract at the age of 33 in the final year of his deal.

    The benefit of signing Drew is not only having an immediate improvement at the only postion without a top prospect nearing the MLB roster. It keeps you from forcing Sanatana, Goodrum, & Polanco into the position before being ready while letting one of three to distance themselves from the pack.
    Last edited by Trevor0333; 12-11-2013 at 07:51 PM.

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  24. #93
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Joe A. Preusser's Avatar
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    I know this drum has been beaten to death, but it's not just SS that could be blocked with a Drew signing. Moving Dozier back to SS and letting Rosario play 2B is still very much an option. I say go all in on another SP, move Worley to the pen, and cut bait with Diamond (hope he catches on with another club). Deduno and Gibson fighting for your 5th SP position for a year until Correia's contract is up is not a bad thing. Meyer supplanting Deduno in 2015 is also not a bad thing.

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  26. #94
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Joe A. Preusser's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Like I said in another post, I'm not a huge fan of Drew.

    But he's the best SS on the market and the Twins literally have nobody else who projects to be above average in the next half decade.
    Except Dozier?

  27. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by JP3700 View Post
    If you wouldn't sign a three+ win player for a bag of balls, then your team is never going to get anywhere.



    Using a 54 AB sample size?
    That's just how the MLB Playoffs roll. It's not a big sample size. But, you have to perform in small sample sizes. The Twins made the playoffs 6 years from 2002-2010. But couldn't do much during that small sample size. It matters. I'd sign Mark Lemke the day I made the playoffs. Guy was just money.

    Drew will cost $10M more than Florimon, he, like most free agents, are not a good return on investment.


    Yeah, I know about the differences in WAR. SABR > BR & Fangraphs. BR agrees more with SABR. SABR suggests Florimon is a better defender than Drew. And, from the eye test, I'd have to agree with SABR.

    Florimon had better HR numbers in the minors than Dozier's best MiLB season, Dozier, who hit 18 HR last year. 9 HR in 120 games...he's still got some season left. 26...he should get better. No advanced metrics on this one.

    Eh, I don't think one use Drew's career line, much of those better numbers was when he was a totally different player. Ankle/foot injuries you don't recover like you do from a knee. Totals were post injury. Which is who he is now, thus the 2 years.

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  29. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe A. Preusser View Post
    Except Dozier?
    Maybe he can improve but he was terrible as a SS & it definitely affected his offense.

  30. #97
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Joe A. Preusser's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trevor0333 View Post
    Maybe he can improve but he was terrible as a SS & it definitely affected his offense.
    I completely agree. But then he took a step back (to 2B) and figured out his offense. I firmly believe he could make the transition back to SS and be that much more valuable and productive.

  31. #98
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe A. Preusser View Post
    Except Dozier?
    It's questionable whether Dozier can play short in the majors, much less be above average.

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  33. #99
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    The way this off season is playing out I love the idea of just F'n going for it. If they can sign Drew 3/30 & Garza 4/60 while flipping Corriea, Burton, May, & Hicks to the Phils for Brown, Papelbon, & 5 Mill towards his contract.

    I know Browns defensive is not good, I had thought he was solid as a prospect defensively before seeing his defensive stats as a pro. He & Arcia spilt time at RF/DH when Rosario mans LF flanked by Buxton in CF, that is quite an outfield.

    By dumping Duensing & Doumit while moving Corriea & Burton they are not taking on any extra salary for Pap's 13M this year and only 8M in 2015 with the $5M taken back in the deal. Since he is not closing games his 2016 option will not vest. This allows the payroll for both Garza & Drew singings.

    Dozier/Drew/Mauer/Willingham/Brown/Arcia/Plouffe/Pressley/Pinto
    Hermann/Mastrioanni/Florimon/Parmelee
    Garza/Nolasco/Hughes/Deduno/Diamond
    Perkins/Papelbon/Fien/Swarzak/Theilbar/Worley/Albers

    Losing Fielder, Fister, & Peralta this team is going to regress. Sherzxer will not be as amazing although Verlander will be better after a bit of a down year. Losing Smyly in the pen to start this year will hurt the already poor bullpen even with the Nathan addition.

    Down goes the Tigers, down goes the Tigers!
    Last edited by Trevor0333; 12-11-2013 at 08:58 PM.

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  35. #100
    2015:
    1. CF Buxton
    2. 1B Mauer
    3. 3B Sano
    4. DH Arcia
    5. RF Hicks
    6. LF Rosario
    7. 2B Dozier
    8. SS Drew
    9. C Pinto

    1. Garza
    2. Meyer
    3. Nolasco
    4. Hughes
    5. Deduno/May/Gibson/Berrios

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