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Thread: Article: The Calm before the Storm

  1. #21
    Senior Member All-Star Winston Smith's Avatar
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    I think Paul Maholm is still out there. He is left handed, which would be a plus, and is likely to get the same kind of contract that the Twins appear to have offered Pelfrey.

    Pelfrey: 55-67, 4.48 era, whip 1.472 and an ERA+ of 90.
    Maholm: 76-95, 4.28 era, whip 1.397 and an ERA+ of 96.
    yes i know these stats aren't perfect!

    IMO, Maholm would make more sense if he is still available. Having at least one LH starter would seem like a good idea.

  2. #22
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer J-Dog Dungan's Avatar
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    Great article. It's good to know that someone else is feeling the same thing I am; I can just feel that the Twins are about to make a move. They have been too quiet for too long to say that nothing is going on. Hope to hear some good news soon.

  3. #23
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Winston Smith View Post
    IMO, Maholm would make more sense if he is still available. Having at least one LH starter would seem like a good idea.
    Not a bad idea. The Twins could definitely use a lefty in the rotation.

  4. #24
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer J-Dog Dungan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Not a bad idea. The Twins could definitely use a lefty in the rotation.
    And I just don't think Diamond is the lefty you really want in a top-flight rotation

  5. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Not a bad idea. The Twins could definitely use a lefty in the rotation.
    How much of a necessity is having a lefty starter? Target Field appears to play well for RH hitters and is tougher on LH, so you'd think throwing RH starters out there would make sense. The Tigers seemed to do pretty well last year going with five righties.
    Last edited by matthew0211; 12-12-2013 at 11:17 AM.

  6. #26
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by matthew0211 View Post
    How much of a necessity is having a lefty starter? Target Field appears to play well for RH hitters and is tougher on LH, so you'd think throwing RH starters out there would make sense. The Tigers seemed to do pretty well last year going with five righties.
    It's not a requirement, just a nice thing to have. Some teams are stacked with lefties and it's nice to have the option of going different-handed against some of them during a series.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    It's not a requirement, just a nice thing to have. Some teams are stacked with lefties and it's nice to have the option of going different-handed against some of them during a series.
    And not all games are played at Target Field.

    At this point, if the Twins don't snag Garza, I think I'd prefer a cheap lotto ticket on a 1 or 1 and an option year deal. I think Floyd, Niemann and Santana would be pretty exciting, and if we find later they can't cut it, well that's what all the depth is for. These kind of guys have a potential to bring a return at the trade deadline if healthy and have an outside chance at being worth a qualifying offer at year's end. They also have the potential to be the best arm on the staff.

  8. #28
    Super Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    It just feels like a trade could happen at any time.
    This is what I was hoping for. A 40-man-clearing move, to free up space for a rule-5 and a very good FA and a good spare part. Rule-5 didn't happen, obviously.

    But I still hope that during the meetings Terry let it be known to teams with 40-man space, "here's 6 guys - pick any 2, any 3 - offer me a legitimate #8-12 non-40-man prospect in return, and we can do business", and go from there. If nothing materializes, so be it - DFA the worst guy later on to make room, as need be. But I suspect there is residual value in a few of the guys who only amount to clutter on a rebuilding team.

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  10. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by minn55441 View Post
    [/LIST]

    I like the sound of message. It would be really nice to start next season with last years starters in Rochester, with the idea that they only get a chance in Minnesota when and if someone goes on the DL.

    I'll be happy if he signs one more starter and an outfielder. Even if that starter turns out to be Pelfrey.
    I would be happier if last years starters were in San diego , and we had a couple of there Pitching prospects in Rochester

  11. #30
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    It cant be stated enough , if we are going to add any more pitchers, they need to be an upgrade over what we have already...and there is only a handful that fit that discription.
    we have the mid-back end of the rotation filled, we dont need any more #4 types,
    If your going to sign Pelfrey , why not sign Scott baker? Doesnt his career numbers show he is a better chance at being a #3 type pitcher?

  12. #31
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    One of the reasons I wanted Anderson so bad was to put a lefty with real stuff in the rotation.

    I like Maholm a lot better than Pelfrey at the same contract especially.

    If it's the years & not the $ the hello Chris Capuano.... I'd be ok with giving him 2/18 all day long.

  13. #32
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    It always felt like Baker had no problem going on the DL ever. No interest here & thankfully sounds as if TR agrees.

  14. #33
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    I couldn't agree more John, that's exactly the type of move they need to try& make.

  15. #34
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    I actually have the transcript from the calls between Terry Ryan and Scott Boras (Pelfreys agent):

    Ryan: We are interested in bringing Pelfrey back, but only for one year.

    Boras: He is fielding multiple offers, it will take two years. The other teams know what my client can do. Did you know his ERA was under 4.00 three years ago?

    Ryan: Fine, we will go 2 years and $10M. We think Pelfrey can marginally improve upon his 5-13 record, 5.19 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 10.8 H/9, 6K/9, and .300 average against

    Boras: We will settle for 2 years, but we have many teams calling so it is going to cost more

    Ryan: How come I have not heard a single team linked to Pelfrey, even for a one year deal?

    Boras: Many teams are out there, including teams in both leagues

    Ryan: Ok, we will do 2 years and $12M. We need to get this ace locked up. We are particularly intrigued by his 5.00 ERA over the last two months. We feel like he really transitioned after the typical first few month’s struggles from TJ.

  16. #35
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    I think if we sign Pelfry we may be trading Corriea by the end of spring training if someone isn't on the DL at that time.

    Instead of signing Drew how about trading for one of Az's SSs. THey have 2 good young ones.

    I hope Garza signs soon so we know where he'll be.

  17. #36
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    I like Garza...but a little worried he'll require 4 years. How many pitchers are good for 4 years in a row? Or have any sort of consistency? It's just hard to be a pitcher.

    I don't like Stephen Drew...$10-$12M for...maybe 1-1.5 more WAR? He's better than Florimon offensively (defensively, SABR says he's better, BaseballProjection says he's better, Fangraphs says Drew is better). Either way, for that kind of money I think we can see better upgrades at CF, RF, DH, #4 Starter, #5 Starter, & Setup RP. We have some real duds there and the WAR ROI is probably much better.

    e.g. Pelfrey's $5M + that $10M for Garza.

    Granted Garza has only averaged 2.32 WAR the past 6 seasons. Pelfrey has averaged 1.25 over that same 6 year span.

    So maybe it's not that much better of an option. Arroyo is slightly better than Garza, but older.

    I almost feel as though to be careful not to get caught up in the vice novelty this year. Sure, so and so is comparatively 'better' than what we have, but in even an average year, he's a below average player.

    I'd be curious the average WAR per position and the average salary per position. And then look at what players are getting offered per their positional average value ($).

    I think Tanaka is going to be good, btw. I think his sinker will play well in MLB. Maybe even Roy Halladay well. At age 25. I think he'll be comparable to Zach Greinke. The other influx of Japanese pitchers have done quite well in MLB. Ryu, Iwakuma, Kuroda, and even some of them for their first 2-3 years...Nomo, Matsuzaka. (I apologize if I butchered those names)

    Matsuzaka, 4.1 and 5.3 WAR
    Nomo, 4.7 and 4.6 WAR
    Kuroda, 3.4, 3.1, 5.5, and 4.1 WAR in his full seasons
    Iawakuma, 2.0 and 7.0 WAR
    Ryu, 3.3 WAR

    There's probably a few flops the past few years I don't know of. But maybe more success rate than the American FA crop...

  18. #37
    Anderson from the A's. Essentially, almost, for something like Hendriks and, say, Berrios. I would think the Twins could have made an interesting offer better than the Rockies.

  19. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    I actually have the transcript from the calls between Terry Ryan and Scott Boras (Pelfreys agent):

    Ryan: We are interested in bringing Pelfrey back, but only for one year.

    Boras: He is fielding multiple offers, it will take two years. The other teams know what my client can do. Did you know his ERA was under 4.00 three years ago?

    Ryan: Fine, we will go 2 years and $10M. We think Pelfrey can marginally improve upon his 5-13 record, 5.19 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 10.8 H/9, 6K/9, and .300 average against

    Boras: We will settle for 2 years, but we have many teams calling so it is going to cost more

    Ryan: How come I have not heard a single team linked to Pelfrey, even for a one year deal?

    Boras: Many teams are out there, including teams in both leagues

    Ryan: Ok, we will do 2 years and $12M. We need to get this ace locked up. We are particularly intrigued by his 5.00 ERA over the last two months. We feel like he really transitioned after the typical first few month’s struggles from TJ.
    I might have agreed with you until a couple weeks ago when Ryan started signing other guys. I think the Twins have the leverage now, especially considering Pelfrey's own stated interest in returning.

    http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_2...-if?source=rss

  20. #39
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    I also believe something, or a few something's are in the works. Now, I don't have the feeling it's sme big trade of prospects for:_________fill in the blank for top SP or position player. First, I've said before trading from so much depth is not smart RIGHT NOW when in the process of rebuilding. I think next season makes WAY more sense to move young talent for something proven.

    Secondly, other than SS, what position do we trade for or make a major FA signing for that makes sense long term? If you believe in our talented young prospects at all, you have Pinto at C along with Herrmann as a talented athlete with quality defense and some position flexibility to help out. Mauer at first. Dozier at 2B and Soriano coming soon. ( though he could move to the OF again) Sano at 3B just around the corner. Buxton and Hicks and Arcia in the OF. So where do we trade for a position player that really improves us, sacrifice young talent, and not block someone other than SS?

    I could still see a veteran C for depth and experience, a LH INF bat who can help a 1B and 3B like Tracy, Chavez or Betemitt. I wonder who else might still be available in the OF cheaply to compete wit Presley and insurance for Mastro?

    Another SP is still the place to go I feel. I'd prefer Garza for now as well as the long term, but have no problem with Arroyo for the short while Gibson and Meyer and hopefully May establish themselves.

    I don't have a problem with Pelfrey exactly, but I feel, not stuff but quality, is too much like adding another Correia to the staff. While I'd like a LHSP added, it's not an absolute must. But what about Gibson, Deduno, Worley and Diamond as options if we sign 2? Do we trade Correia come spring training?

  21. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by DocBauer View Post
    I also believe something, or a few something's are in the works. Now, I don't have the feeling it's sme big trade of prospects for:_________fill in the blank for top SP or position player. First, I've said before trading from so much depth is not smart RIGHT NOW when in the process of rebuilding. I think next season makes WAY more sense to move young talent for something proven.

    Secondly, other than SS, what position do we trade for or make a major FA signing for that makes sense long term? If you believe in our talented young prospects at all, you have Pinto at C along with Herrmann as a talented athlete with quality defense and some position flexibility to help out. Mauer at first. Dozier at 2B and Soriano coming soon. ( though he could move to the OF again) Sano at 3B just around the corner. Buxton and Hicks and Arcia in the OF. So where do we trade for a position player that really improves us, sacrifice young talent, and not block someone other than SS?

    I could still see a veteran C for depth and experience, a LH INF bat who can help a 1B and 3B like Tracy, Chavez or Betemitt. I wonder who else might still be available in the OF cheaply to compete wit Presley and insurance for Mastro?

    Another SP is still the place to go I feel. I'd prefer Garza for now as well as the long term, but have no problem with Arroyo for the short while Gibson and Meyer and hopefully May establish themselves.

    I don't have a problem with Pelfrey exactly, but I feel, not stuff but quality, is too much like adding another Correia to the staff. While I'd like a LHSP added, it's not an absolute must. But what about Gibson, Deduno, Worley and Diamond as options if we sign 2? Do we trade Correia come spring training?
    Do you know something about Alfonso Soriano?

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